Faceoff - WR Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs

Posted 6/12, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Sigmund Bloom

Every year, a young WR or two makes that step from very good, very promising to delivering on that promise and becoming one of the truly elite. This year, the most likely WR to make that jump is Dwayne Bowe.

The biggest case to make on Bowe's behalf is elementary. He was five yards short of a 1,000 yard season as a rookie. Very few first year players put up that kind of number in their first year. The only rookie WRs in the last ten years to put up 1000 yards have been Randy Moss, Anquan Boldin, Michael Clayton, and Marques Colston. Clayton is a bit of a mystery, but it's safe to say that he didn't display the same kind of "my ball" mentality and raw talent Bowe showed in 2007. Even with Clayton in the mix, that is still a 75% chance of Bowe turning into an immediate perennial elite fantasy WR. If you add in the two rooks that finished just short of 1K (Kevin Johnson and Andre Johnson), you still end up at a 66% chance -- in other words, when a WR starts their career the way Bowe did, they are very likely on their way to become one of the best of the best.

Going beyond the general analysis of studly rookie WRs, there are lots of specific reasons to Bowe to like his chances of having a better 2008 than his 2007. He will have the benefit of an entire offseason of NFL conditioning and working with his teammates. The offense should improve under new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey. Larry Johnson is back from a foot injury that cost him the second half of the '07 season. Brodie Croyle has to be better than he was last year. The offensive line can not possibly be worse, and could be better if rookie Branden Albert can be a passable left tackle, and Damien McIntosh is a better at right tackle than he was at left tackle last year.

Part of winning your league is staying ahead of the curve. Taking Dwayne Bowe as your WR2 in the 4th or 5th round put you squarely in front of the explosive growth that is likely to take place in this future star's second season in the NFL.

Downside - by Chris Smith

Dwayne Bowe had a very nice rookie season in Kansas City last year. He emerged as the #1 receiver and showed an ability to get open against NFL defenses. Why then do I have him ranked 24th at the receiver position this year? Simply because I do not envision the Chiefs passing attack to be good enough this season for him to improve on his 24th place finish last season.

Reasons for concern in 2008

• The Chiefs are unlikely to throw 563 passes this season: Last season due to injury woes with star RB Larry Johnson and poor play along the offensive line, the Chiefs were forced to throw the ball much more than they would have liked. Expect that number not to climb above 500 attempts this season as the Chiefs attempt to win with a power running attack and good defensive play.
• Inexperienced QB play: Brodie Croyle will likely get the starting nod this season but he still has a lot of improvements to make before he'll put up big passing numbers. Last season he only connected with Bowe on one touchdown pass in eight games with significant action. His inexperience will likely result in dump-off passes to the running back position and to veteran TE Tony Gonzalez.
• Production fell off in 2nd half of season: Bowe only managed to catch 2 touchdowns over the final 12 games of the season. He still caught a fair amount of passes but only had one 100-yard effort over that stretch as well.

Final Thoughts

Is Dwayne Bowe a talented player capable of putting up big numbers in an explosive offense? The answer to that question is yes. However we are not debating his potential production in future seasons but only looking ahead to 2008. Chiefs HC Herm Edwards will want to feature a power rushing attack and strong defensive play which should cut the passing attempts down significantly. Bowe simply will not get enough touches to jump into the top-20 of the position this season. Don't overreach for receivers in poor passing offenses as you'll often be disappointed.