Faceoff - WR Bernard Berrian, Minnesota Vikings

Posted 8/1, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Andy Hicks

Bernard Berrian is being underrated in drafts this year. With a combination of Rex Grossman, Brian Griese and Kyle Orton passing the ball Berrian managed to rank as a high WR3 in 2007. The year he moves to a Minnesota Vikings team that laid out big cash to sign him, have an awesome running game and one of the best offensive lines, yet you can grab him in the 7th or 8th round? Berrian has WR2 written all over him.

Berrian was pretty much the lone offensive threat on a Chicago Bear team devoid of offensive firepower, yet he still managed to get reasonably consistent fantasy production. Opposing defenses could afford to focus on him, due to the lackluster running of Cedric Benson and the lack of a decent receiver on the other side. In Minnesota he will have the explosive Adrian Peterson as the focal point of the opposition and the potentially dynamic Sidney Rice accompanying him to keep secondaries honest. Berrian will be afforded valuable space, all he needs is Tarvaris Jackson to be a half reasonable quarterback and the results should be more than pleasing to those that draft him.

As a receiver, Berrian has the speed to get a touchdown on any play and if you're in a league that rewards for touchdown length expect Berrian to be more popular than in most other leagues. Tarvaris Jackson will also be given more freedom to pass the ball after impressing the coaching staff with his development in the off season. To keep defenses off balance Jackson will need to thrown more often than he did in 2007, when the Vikings ranked last in passing attempts. With Rice & Berrian on the field it will keep defenses honest and after last years below par receivers failing to capitalize on the opportunities, the Vikings will welcome Berrian's good hands. Berrian has already developed good chemistry with Jackson in mini camps and will no doubt improve during training camp and pre season as they become more familiar with each other. .

A team that spends $42 million on a player doesn't do it to not utilize them, expect Berrian to be featured often. Tarvaris Jackson is developing nicely according to the coaching staff and has made a quantum leap from the 2007 season. With the running game allowing Berrian room, expect multiple huge games from him, with some quiet games no doubt thrown in as well. This is perfectly reasonable for a WR2, which is a realistic upside to expect for Berrian his year.

Downside - by Colin Dowling

Despite his inarguable physical talents, there are four reasons to be down on Bernard Berrian's prospects for the 2008 season.

First, his quarterback has yet to show he's able to do much more than take the snap and hand off to Adrian Peterson or Chester Taylor. Tarvaris Jackson's 2007 passing numbers (58% completion, 6.5 yards per attempt, only 9 touchdowns) leave much to be desired in the passing game. Even if Jackson were to miraculously double his touchdown tosses, Berrian would have to account for more than ¼ of those touchdowns to equal his 2007 numbers. Never mind how many more yards Jackson would need to pass for to give Berrian a chance at another 900 yard season.

Second, receivers switching teams do not have a strong track record of success, especially in their initial season with their new squad. NFL history is littered with players that took big paydays with new teams and never came close to their prior career highs in production. If Berrian were a longtime stud a la Terrell Owens or Randy Moss changing uniforms, it might be foreseeable that he breaks out in 2008. But he isn't and his brief history of production hardly justifies high hopes.

Third, Minnesota's offense begins and ends with handing the ball off to uber-talent Adrian Peterson. Minnesota's line is perhaps the best run-blocking squad in the league. In 2007, they ran the ball 53% of the time compared to the 2007 Bears which passed the ball more than 57% of the time. There simply may not be enough targets available for Berrian to produce the numbers it takes to justify his ADP of WR35.

Fourth, Berrian doesn't have much history of good production, much less great production. Berrian improved in each of his four seasons in Chicago, culminating in a solid 71 catch, 951 yard, 5 touchdown season in 2007. But he's only been a true starter for two seasons and produced relatively lackluster results in both campaigns. For all the money thrown his way in free agency and for all the attention lavished on him becoming one of Minnesota's starting receivers (Sidney Rice will likely be the other), aren't those numbers a little pedestrian to justify an average draft position of WR35?

If Berrian were a longtime vet going to a decent passing situation, he might be able to receive a bit of a pass on some of these concerns. Unfortunately, 4 seasons and a meager 32 starts isn't the type of track record that indicates he'll be able to transition seamlessly. To finish in the WR35 range, Berrian would need to duplicate his 2007 career highs for a new team with a mediocre quarterback in an offense that focuses on running the ball. Factor in that Berrian is being selected about 3 rounds ahead of teammate Sidney Rice, who has as much (if not more) upside and you have all the makings of an overrated player.