Faceoff - RB Tatum Bell, Detroit Lions

Posted 7/22, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Chris Smith

Tatum Bell has fallen off the radar in fantasy circles this season. Detroit has struggled running the football over the past few seasons and drafted RB Kevin Smith in this year's draft to address the rushing game. However Bell still has some marginal value in fantasy leagues as I'll illustrate below.

Reasons to believe Bell still has some value in fantasy leagues.

• During the 2005 and 2006 NFL campaigns, RB Tatum Bell compiled 1,946 rushing yards, 42 receptions and 10 touchdowns with the Denver Broncos. He was an emerging fantasy weapon and the former 2nd round pick from Oklahoma State looked as if he would be around fantasy circles for awhile. Then he was traded to the Detroit Lions after the 2006 season and things went down hill last year. He only played in five games and had scored just a single touchdown. However he did have 14 receptions in those games.
• Kevin Smith is not a 'can't miss' prospect. It is one thing to expect an Adrian Peterson or LaDainian Tomlinson to step in and be a difference maker on Sundays but it's unfair to expect Kevin Smith to do the same. He is a good player and could develop into a great one in time but it's too early to really know how well he'll do the non-rushing skills such as pass protection which could limit his playing time somewhat this season.
• Limited competition for touches in behind Kevin Smith: Bell is actually heading into training camp as the starter but Smith is expected to get a majority of the carries. However Bell will only be competing with Brian Calhoun for playing time.
• Bell has a nice all-around game. He is a capable receiver and has nice quickness and vision in hitting the hole. He's likely to earn 8-12 touches per game this season.

Final Thoughts

If you are looking for a fantasy starter, it is best to look elsewhere. The fact is that rookie Kevin Smith will get a majority of the carries this season if he plays well in training camp. However Bell will earn enough playing time to give him 8-12 touches per game which should ultimately slot him into the top-fifty at the position in 2008. Not great value but he still is a player to pick up late in your fantasy draft.

Downside - by Jeff Haseley

The Detroit Lions are looking for a new identity now that Mike Martz and his wide open offensive style has left for San Francisco. Enter new OC Jim Colletto and is emphasis on running the football. How will this affect RB Tatum Bell? Will he be a main contributor for the team, unlike last year? Apparently Bell seems to think so. Instead of leaving Detroit in the dust, after being a forgotten man on the team last year, he signed a one-year contract with the team in hopes that he may turn his career around.

Contract or not, Bell is on the outside looking in.

Detroit drafted college RB sensation Kevin Smith from Central Florida in the second round of the 2008 NFL Draft. All Smith did was rush for 2500+ yards and score 29 TDs last year alone. The Lions and new OC Jim Colletto planned all along to draft Smith and make him their primary back from the get go. Smith's college coach once worked with Colletto, in fact some of the names of the plays that Colletto will run are the same. Kevin Smith has the inside track on the starting job in Detroit. To think anything else is foolish.

Where does this leave Tatum Bell? He will have to have a Herculean effort in order to unseat rookie Kevin Smith, who is already familiar with the running style and plays that Colletto runs. Smith was drafted to serve as the team's RB, pure and simple. Just because Smith may get the majority of the carries, doesn't mean that Bell will be forgotten. Expect Bell to still get some carries, potentially up to 120 carries. At roughly 4.5 YPC with 100-120 carries, that's 450-550 yards rushing, but I'm leaning closer to the low 400s.

From a fantasy perspective Bell is a late round flier who will likely serve as a back up handcuff to the Kevin Smith owner. Unfortunately, it's looking like nothing more, nothing less. Unless Kevin Smith suffers an injury and misses significant time, I don't expect Tatum Bell to have that much of a fantasy impact.