Faceoff - RB Marion Barber III, Dallas Cowboys

Posted 6/12, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Haseley

The determining factor behind Marion Barber's success in 2008 will be the amount of carries and overall touches he will receive. This year Barber should separate himself from his previous seasons - and those previous seasons were very impressive. How is he going to do that? More touches. With starting RB Julius Jones now in Seattle, Barber will take over the starting RB duties, thus increasing his touches, which will increase his production, which will result in more fantasy points. He could finish in the RB top 5 and possibly top 3. Here's how.

Barber has been the backup to Julius Jones in Dallas since his rookie year in 2005. As a backup, Barber has improved his fantasy ranking each year going from the 35th best RB in 2005 to 14th in 2006 to finally 7th in 2007. Barber is clearly showing improvement every year he's been in the league and he's also increasing his reception totals each year (18, 23, 44). Barber has averaged 4.8 yards per carry in each of his last two years and his rushing totals have increased each year. If he maintains that YPC average and his carries increase, he'll have more total yardage - pure and simple.

• 2006: 135 carries, 654 yards, 14 TDs - 23 receptions, 196 yards, 2 TD - RB rank 14
• 2007: 204 carries, 975 yards, 10 TDs - 44 receptions, 282 yards, 2 TD - RB rank 7

Last year Barber began to take over the primary role as the Cowboys RB around week 7 and more prominently after their bye, week 8.

Carries games 1-6 Jones: 69 Barber: 64

Carries games 7-17 Barber: 139 Jones: 97

Projecting Barber's second half totals (week 10 - 17) from last year over a full season would give him 210 carries for 1008 yards and 10 TDs with 48 receptions for 307 yards and 2 TDs. Those numbers would give him 202 fantasy points, which would rank him as the 7th best RB - which was exactly where he was in 2007. Those numbers take into account that some other RB is also getting 150 carries. Will the combination of rookie RBs Felix Jones and Tashard Choice reach 150 carries or will Barber's role increase more than last season? The inexperience from the two rookies will probably mean more carries for Barber and less for the rookie tandem. It is not far-fetched to expect 240-260 carries with over 50 receptions for Barber in 2008. Those numbers, along with his knack for finding the end zone make Barber a top 5 RB with an outside chance of reaching top 3 status. Where you project Barber depends on how many carries you think the rookie tandem will receive. If you think the rookies will have less than 150 carries, then Barber's value will climb. If you think they will have more, then his value decreases. His floor is still going to be around 200 carries, which is where he was last year, which was the 7th ranked RB. Barber is virtually a lock for top 10 status, but his ceiling could be much higher.

Downside - by Andy Hicks

As Joe Bryant would say, "Things move pretty fast around here". Last year I was in the position of writing the upside for Marion Barber when he was being taken at the end of the 4th to early in the 5th round, or as RB27. He was incredible value given his production and opportunity. This year the value is gone. Barber will be taken in the middle of the first round. For a guy yet to see 250 touches (rushing attempts and receptions) in any year of his career to date the possibility of him living up to his draft slot, let alone exceeding it is poor.

Barber relies on touchdowns contributing a large percentage of his fantasy points. Over 36% of his points came from touchdowns in 2007 and over 50% in 2006. There is no room for improvement here and the possibility of a significant drop. With the Cowboys rely heavily on the passing game and last season ranking in the bottom half of the league in rushing attempts, it won't be an easy task for him to push into the elite bracket of running backs if the passing game dominates once again.

The Cowboys drafted Felix Jones in the 1st round to take over from the disappointing Julius Jones. Is it possible Felix takes over some of the roles previously performed by Barber? To add to the list of options the Cowboys have they also drafted Tanard Choice in the 4th round. It would be a surprise if the Running Back by Committee employed by Dallas over the last few years wasn't continued this season. It will be very difficult for a guy who gets under 300 touches to perform as a RB1 when he's part of a committee. It's possible, just difficult.

The final point relates to 2 separate coaching staffs not being prepared to utilize Marion Barber to his full potential. In practically every statistical category Barber dominated Julius Jones, yet in half of the games in 2007 under Wade Philips and Jason Garrett he registered 12 carries or less. In 9 games he had 2 receptions or less. He also failed to register a touchdown in half of his games. In 2006 under Bill Parcells he only recorded 2 games with more than 12 carries and only 3 games with more than 2 catches. Why? It is presumptuous to assume he will receive a large increase in his workload, especially when the Cowboys drafted a running back in the first round and significantly upgraded the RB3 position by taking Tanard Choice. I still see Barber being a solid back, just don't be surprised if he fails to live up to his draft slot.