Faceoff - WR Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams

Posted 7/28, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Mike Brown

With regards to Donnie Avery's prospects for the upcoming season, here's some advice: Use everyone else's ignorance to your own advantage. Hey, if people are going to sleep on a guy in a great position to excel, you ought to at least benefit by being wide awake, no?

Avery was the top rookie wide receiver drafted. Some critics and scouts called the selection a "reach". Obviously, the Rams weren't taking the guy who was thought to be the consensus best player at his position. If that was the case, they'd currently have DaSean Jackson or Limas Sweed or Devin Thomas suiting up in the blue and gold. No, the Rams were taking the player who was the best fit for them. Obviously they see something in Avery that they like for their particular system. I actually love the fact that he wasn't thought of as being the "best" guy out there but they took him anyway. The fact that Saint Louis went against the grain here tells me that they weren't blindly taking some hot-shot prospect; the pick told me that they've got specific plans in mind for Avery that they didn't feel the other players could fill.

The ability to run the 40-yard dash in 4.29 seconds could have something to do with that.

To get an idea of what might be expected of Avery for this season, let's look at his situation. He was drafted and will be groomed as the replacement for Isaac Bruce. No one is going to suggest that Avery will have a Bruce-like career, since it's far too early for that. But both came from schools that weren't thought of as being legendary programs, and both were selected 33rd overall by the Rams. Bruce stepped in and dominated almost from the outset. Avery still needs to win his job, but with an injury-prone Drew Bennett as the main threat for playing time it could be a matter of when and not if, he wins a starting job. And with Torry Holt drawing double teams on the other side of the field, and players like Steven Jackson and Randy McMichael drawing their own coverage, Avery could be in a lot of situations where he can put that blazing speed to good use in one-on-one coverage.

Avery is being taken in the 18th round on average in fantasy drafts. A lot of leagues don't even HAVE an 18th round. That means you can get him extremely late, perhaps even with your final pick. At that point in the draft, it's all sleepers and fliers anyway. You might as well take the guy who is in a prime situation to excel and who's got very little downside.

Downside - by Chris Smith

Does Avery have the potential to be a good NFL receiver in time? Yes, he certainly does.

Will Avery have decent fantasy value in 2008 as a rookie? No he will not.

The above two questions and answers illustrate in a nutshell what I think of Avery in both this and future seasons. I'll break down his 2008 fantasy chances below.

Reasons not to target rookie WR Donnie Avery:

• He is a rookie: For every rookie receiver that surprises with a big season (Dwayne Bowe for example) there are a number that have little to no production. It is a big jump from the collegiate world to the NFL and the bigger, faster cornerbacks often dominate new receivers at this level. Avery is on the smallish size and he'll take awhile to adjust to the NFL game.
• The Rams are not the 'Greatest show on turf' anymore: Not only are they not an explosive passing team now, I believe they will try to pound the ball 25+ times a game featuring the power rushing skills of Steven Jackson. That means, the Rams won't have as many attempts as some other years and Avery will be behind Torry Holt, Drew Bennett, Randy McMichael and Steven Jackson in the passing progressions. He simply will not see enough targets to make him any more than a marginal player in 2008.
• The re-emergence of veteran WR Drew Bennett: Last year he played hurt all season and as a result most fantasy owners have forgotten the former top-six fantasy weapon. He'll never approach those numbers again, but when healthy, Bennett is a capable #2 receiver who could catch 50+ passes this season.

Final Thoughts

Donnie Avery has plenty of upside and as a dynasty player I would be targeting him in the mid-rounds of a fantasy draft. However in a re-draft league, there is little reason to believe he'll be a fantasy force this season unless injuries hit the Rams hard. I would only consider Avery in the very late rounds of a draft. I would be surprised to see him crack the top-fifty at the position in 2008.