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Faceoff - S Oshiomogho Atogwe, St. Louis Rams
Posted 6/27, exclusive to Footballguys.com
Upside - by Bob Magaw
Atogwe is a gifted athlete who was a four sport star as a decorated Canadian prep, also competing at a high level for the Stanford track team in the sprints and jumps. He flashed an encompassing, protean skill set on the football field, coupling the ability to hit like an electric axe handle (leading the Cardinal in tackles for three seasons and setting the school's career mark in FFs - 11) along with impressive ball skills (9 career INTs). Atogwe has proven the ability to translate his formidable versatility and big play penchant to the NFL, with an elite DE/LB-like 5 FFs in 2006 and NFC-leading 8 INTs in 2007.A few of the biggest causes for optimism towards Atogwe's projection can be traced to improvements on both sides of the ball...
The Rams offense could be vastly improved after an anomalous number of injuries to the OL and skill position players Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson and Torry Holt last season, as well as the addition of 2nd round speed merchant Donnie Avery (first WR from the class of '08 to go off the board) and respected OC Al Saunders in 2008. If the Rams can get an early lead and force opponents into the passing game, this could generate more INT opportunities for Atogwe, as could a potentially greatly improved DL, with the return of Pro Bowl DE Leonard Little (a sack/FF machine when healthy), promising second year interior DL Adam Carriker and Clifton Ryan, and most importantly, prized second overall pick in the '08 draft, DE Chris Long, one of the most technically advanced and high motor DE prospects some scouts have ever graded.
Atogwe has averaged a steady 65 solo tackles the past two seasons, and MLB Will Witherspoon is one of the few reliable tacklers in the back seven. While he may have already re-upped with a lucrative contract extension by the start of the season, if not, Atogwe will no doubt be highly motivated to have a monster season.
With continued development, he has top 10 safety upside.
Downside - by Jene Bramel
Atogwe has finished among the top twelve safeties in FBG scoring for two consecutive seasons. He's flashed impressive big play ability, with five forced fumbles, 11 interceptions and 22 passes defended over that time frame. But it's precisely that big play production that should concern you when considering Atogwe among the top 20 defensive backs in IDP leagues.Atogwe has barely been able to crack the 65 solo tackle mark in his two seasons as the Rams' starting strong safety. His relatively poor tackle numbers aren't due to a lack of opportunity. The Rams finished with an average number of tackle chances in each of the past two seasons and, other than MLB Will Witherspoon, don't have the horses at OLB or elsewhere in the secondary to regularly vulture tackles. Without the above average forced fumbles in 2006 and eight interceptions in 2007, Atogwe wouldn't have finished among the top 15 safeties. In fact, his 66 solos last season ranked only 17th best overall among all safeties and outside of the top 20 on a per game basis.
Not much will have changed for Atogwe this year. The defensive scheme and personnel are essentially the same. If anything, the addition of Chris Long may improve the defense enough to decrease Atogwe's tackle chances. The production of defensive backs tends to cluster thickly in the mid DB2 through DB3 tier. Investing heavily in Atogwe and relying on him to repeat a well above normal number of big plays is a significant risk. Should Atogwe not improve upon his historical pace of 65 solos and not hit his historical peripheral benchmarks, you've got little more than Dawan Landry or C.C. Brown production left over -- DB4 numbers at a DB2 price.