Faceoff - RB Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts

Posted 6/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by David Baker

Joseph Addai broke through last year with over 1,400 total yards and 15 touchdowns. He's the starting running back in one of the best offenses in football. He excels in running the ball, of course, but he also is a very good receiver and blocks well, assuring his playing field time in all situations. He has excellent acceleration through holes and has breakaway speed. So what's not to like? I'll tell you what. Nothing.

Selecting Addai as a top five RB could be one of the surest things in fantasy circles this year. Although the Colts will see the return of Dominic Rhodes at running back this year, don't look for the same kind of distribution the two shared a couple years ago. Addai is no longer the unproven rookie. Addai will take on a more featured than he did then, and it's quite possible he'll increase his workload from last season. Addai blazed out of the starting gates last year. In the first nine games Addai played last year, he carried the ball 192 times, an average of more than 21 carries per game. He rushed for more than 100 yards in four of those games and had ten touchdowns during that period. His fantasy production over those nine games projected out to be the second best running back last year, behind only Tomlinson. A minor neck injury slowed him down in his next game and nagging injuries finally began to take their toll in his effectiveness. He only once carried the ball more than 15 times in a game thereafter. While I doubt Addai maintains that early pace over next season, it's well within reason that a healthier Addai carries the ball 300 times, which should position him nicely into the top five group in your fantasy league.

The bottom line is that Addai excels in every facet of the offensive game and when you're the main man on one of the most dangerous offenses in the league, you're nearly a sure bet in fantasy circles. And there aren't many sure bets in this game.

Downside - by Mark Wimer

Joseph Addai is a fine dual-threat back, but the Colts keep him on a strict ration of touches each season. This relatively-light work load will preclude Addai from vaulting into the ranks of the elite fantasy RBs, as his number of touches on the ball each year simply won't result in a top-5 fantasy season.

I don't see any reason to expect that to change during 2008 with the re-signing of Dominic Rhodes to play second fiddle in Indianapolis again this year, and given the presence of capable stand-in Kenton Keith in the Colts' RB stable. Take a look at Addai's game logs from last year (http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/AddaJo00-3.php) and you'll see that he is generally held to between 20-23 rushes and 4-6 pass targets per game, with only one instance last year of more than 23 carries (he toted the ball 26 times during week 9, vs. New England).

While double-digit TDs in the rushing department are a possibility again this year, I don't see Addai hammering in more than he did last year, and think he'll probably decline back towards the high single digits in that department, with 1 or 2 receiving TDs to go along with his 300ish yards receiving. The low ceiling for Addai in comparison to the elite RBs above him means that while Addai is a top-10 fantasy RB, his probable fantasy points total at year's end is closer to the tier of RBs below him than the one above him. One final caution for fantasy owners considering Addai - last year the team really restricted his carries in the final month of the season as the Colts cruised into the playoffs, with a mere 6 carries for 26 yards and 1 TD coming in a week 16 cameo (1/5/0 receiving), and 4/27/0 rushing and 1/8/0 receiving during week 17. Since fantasy playoffs are decided in the closing weeks of regular season, the Colts' habit of resting their starters in late December is a concern when they cruise to a commanding lead in their division (as they may do again this year).