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Faceoff - DE Gaines Adams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Posted 8/1, exclusive to Footballguys.com
Upside - by Jene Bramel
Gaines Adams, like nearly every other promising rookie defensive end before him, started slowly. He managed only 1.5 sacks in his first eight games and was inconsistent against the run. After settling into the speed of the game and figuring out what worked best for him in pass rush, Adams, like many rookie defensive ends who end up fulfilling their promise, showed improvement late in his rookie season. Including the Bucs playoff game against Washington, Adams turned in a 22 solo, 4.5 sack performance over the final nine games.Granted, the projected 39 solo, seven sack season had Adams played all 16 games at his second half pace isn't anything to send Adams flying to the top of a rank list. However, it's worth noting that the game charting project at Football Outsiders showed that Adams led all rookies with eight additional quarterback hits and nine additional hurries. Those seventeen near misses, another year in the weight room and playbook, a solid veteran surrounding cast and the promise of an every down role all point toward another big step forward this season.
Detractors will argue, especially in tackle heavy scoring systems, that Adams may not produce well enough against the run to hit the tackle numbers necessary to establish himself as a perennial DL1. It's certainly possible that Adams' box scores will look more like Simeon Rice or John Abraham or Dwight Freeney than Trent Cole. The FBG consensus has him at DL19, which feels about right for a guy whose most likely year-end line will be in the 35-40 solo, 7-9 sack range. But there's an argument to be made that Adams could put together a studly 45-10 season. That's upside worth considering anywhere in the DL2 range.
Downside - by John Norton
Let me be clear on the fact that I don't doubt the potential of Gaines Adams or that he will eventually be a very productive player. That said, I am afraid that many people are going to look at Mario Williams explosion in his second season and assume that Adams will follow the same path. Maybe he is a second year bloomer and this year's version of Williams, but I have seen nothing to make me believe that.As a rookie Adams didn't even land a starting role until Greg Spires was injured in early November, and once he did the numbers weren't exactly impressive. Over the final 8 games of the regular season he totaled just 18-2-3 with his most productive game being the 4-0-1 against the Saints in week 13. Other than that game, Adams failed to put up more than 3 tackles in any game all season. He gave us flashes of potential but was never able to put it together with any consistency. Not so surprisingly, inconsistency was one of the few knock on Adams coming out of Clemson. The other important one being that at 260 pounds, he was not particularly stout against the run and could be overpowered at the point of attack. That too can be seen with the low tackle production in games he started.
I can see Adams being very similar to former Buccaneers star Simeon Rice, who was an outstanding pass rusher that reached double digit sacks on a regular basis but struggled to reach 40 tackles with any consistency. The lack of great tackle numbers was just enough to make Rice inconsistent from week to week and keep him from being an elite fantasy option over the years. Adams could prove me wrong and I wouldn't be completely surprised but until he does that I will continue to temper my expectations. I consider him a strong sleeper with big upside but as an unproven commodity, just couldn't draft him as more than a DL3 this season.