Second- and Third-Wide Receiver Variance

Posted 8/24 by Colin Dowling, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

If you don't draft a top receiver (what we commonly refer to as a "WR1") then you likely will certainly need to grab a receiver in the WR13-36 range. More likely, you'll select two (or even three) of these players regardless of how you use your first couple of picks. For example, if you start your draft with three running backs or two running backs and a quarterback, then at least two of your next three picks will almost assuredly be receivers.

It is important that the receiver(s) you select in rounds 4 through 8 be solid choices that you can count on. I've broken down each of the next twenty-four receivers as they currently rank (using Footballguys.com rankings) to help you see who has a high ceiling, a high floor, and career-long consistency. While you no doubt are seeking upside in these players, it is just as imperative that - barring injury - they don't finish the season ranked lower then where you chose them; spending a high-mid pick on a player that sinks in to the cellar can be terrible for your team.

Receivers experience a great deal of variance in their production both week by week and for the season. Often times, having 4 or 5 receivers allows owners to change out players who aren't playing well or are underperforming. While you should certainly roster enough receivers to do just that, you should also try avoid having your first few receivers turning in to dogs if at all possible.

The 24 receivers below have been lined out with some data that might help you determine some consistency among your choices. Seasons with low production due to injury or due to being a rookie have been added in; why penalize a player like Lee Evans who has finished in the top-36 every season of his career? You might find some surprises such as Reggie Brown (WR33) only having one career top-36 season. Other data might not shock you at all such as Marvin Harrison finishing as a top-36 receiver in every season of his career but one.

Regardless, as I mentioned before, it is paramount to your success that your mid-level selections at receiver live up to their draft position. Some younger players like Dwayne Bowe and Brandon Marshall are on the way up while others like Joey Galloway and Derrick Mason may only have a little left in the tank. Either way, you might use the data below as another tool to help you find good value when choosing receivers in the early-mid rounds.

WR13: Anquan Boldin

ADP: 13
Seasons: 5
Seasons in the top-36: 4
High Finish: 4
Low Finish: 59
Average Finish: 21.4
Career Arc: In his prime

WR14: Santonio Holmes

ADP: 16
Seasons: 2
Seasons in the top-36: 1
High Finish: 18
Low Finish: 41
Average Finish: 29.5
Career Arc: On the way up

WR15: Calvin Johnson

ADP: 19
Seasons: 1
Seasons in the top-36: 1
High Finish: 35
Low Finish: 35
Average Finish: 35
Career Arc: On the way up

WR16: Roy Williams

ADP: 15
Seasons: 4
Seasons in the top-36: 4
High Finish: 10
Low Finish: 33
Average Finish: 25.5
Career Arc: In his prime

WR17: Wes Welker

ADP: 14
Seasons: 3
Seasons in the top-36: 1
High Finish: 11
Low Finish: 86
Average Finish: 51
Career Arc: On the way up

WR18: Dwayne Bowe

ADP: 21
Seasons: 1
Seasons in the top-36: 1
High Finish: 24
Low Finish: 24
Average Finish: 24
Career Arc: On the way up

WR19: Brandon Marshall

ADP: 18
Seasons: 2
Seasons in the top-36: 1
High Finish: 9
Low Finish: 89
Average Finish: 49
Career Arc: On the way up

WR20: Jerricho Cotchery

ADP: 23
Seasons: 4
Seasons in the top-36: 2
High Finish: 23
Low Finish: 144
Average Finish: 74
Career Arc: On the way up

WR21: Greg Jennings

ADP: 17
Seasons: 2
Seasons in the top-36: 1
High Finish: 12
Low Finish: 54
Average Finish: 33
Career Arc: On the way up

WR22: Lee Evans

ADP: 24
Seasons: 4
Seasons in the top-36: 4
High Finish: 7
Low Finish: 32
Average Finish: 23
Career Arc: In his prime

WR23: Roddy White

ADP: 26
Seasons: 3
Seasons in the top-36: 1
High Finish: 14
Low Finish: 80
Average Finish: 52
Career Arc: On the way up

WR24: Laveranues Coles

ADP: 25
Seasons: 8
Seasons in the top-36: 5
High Finish: 13
Low Finish: 75
Average Finish: 31
Career Arc: Putting his prime behind him

WR25: Hines Ward

ADP: 22
Seasons: 10
Seasons in the top-36: 7
High Finish: 3
Low Finish: 96
Average Finish: 31
Career Arc: Putting his prime behind him

WR26: Donald Driver

ADP: 28
Seasons: 9
Seasons in the top-36: 5
High Finish: 5
Low Finish: 131
Average Finish: 46
Career Arc: Putting his prime behind him

WR27: Chris Chambers

ADP: 27
Seasons: 7
Seasons in the top-36: 5
High Finish: 7
Low Finish: 48
Average Finish: 26
Career Arc: In his prime

WR28: Joey Galloway

ADP: 29
Seasons: 13
Seasons in the top-36: 8
High Finish: 5
Low Finish: 124
Average Finish: 35
Career Arc: Putting his prime behind him

WR29: Nate Burleson

ADP: 34
Seasons: 5
Seasons in the top-36: 2
High Finish: 16
Low Finish: 102
Average Finish: 62
Career Arc: In his prime

WR30: Santana Moss

ADP: 30
Seasons: 7
Seasons in the top-36: 4
High Finish: 3
Low Finish: 147
Average Finish: 45
Career Arc: In his prime

WR31: Marvin Harrison

ADP: 20
Seasons: 12
Seasons in the top-36: 11
High Finish: 1
Low Finish: 100
Average Finish: 15
Career Arc: Putting his prime behind him

WR32: Derrick Mason

ADP: 36
Seasons: 11
Seasons in the top-36: 7
High Finish: 7
Low Finish: 132
Average Finish: 44
Career Arc: Putting his prime behind him

WR33: Reggie Brown

ADP: 39
Seasons: 3
Seasons in the top-36: 1
High Finish: 21
Low Finish: 48
Average Finish: 35
Career Arc: On the way up

WR34: Bernard Berrian

ADP: 32
Seasons: 4
Seasons in the top-36: 2
High Finish: 26
Low Finish: 101
Average Finish: 63
Career Arc: On the way up

WR35: Patrick Crayton

ADP: 35
Seasons: 4
Seasons in the top-36: 1
High Finish: 34
Low Finish: 117
Average Finish: 72
Career Arc: On the way up

WR36: Anthony Gonzalez

ADP: 33
Seasons: 1
High Finish: 61
Low Finish: 61
Average Finish: 61
Career Arc: On the way up