Hidden Potential - Titans Passing Game

Posted 8/12 by Colin Dowling, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

In eight seasons as an offensive coordinator or assistant head coach, Mike Heimerdinger's "#1 receiver" has averaged 81 catches, 1095 yards, and just shy of seven touchdowns. (As an aside, his "#2 receiver" has averaged 46 receptions, a little over four touchdowns, and 640 yards each season.)

In this span, Heimerdinger has had…

Three different teams - Tennessee (OC), New York (OC), and Denver (Assistant Head Coach)
Seven different starting quarterbacks - Steve McNair, Billy Volek, Brooks Bollinger, Vinny Testaverde, Chad Pennington, Jake Plummer, and Jay Cutler
Five different leading receivers - Derrick Mason (4 seasons), Drew Bennett, Laveranues Coles, Javon Walker, and Brandon Marshall (one season each)

I have been banging the drum loudly all offseason that no wide receiver for the Tennessee Titans will have much fantasy value, but I'm starting to strongly reconsider that position.

If we take the averages given above and conservatively REDUCE them by 20%, then we are left with the following projected conclusions:

The Titans "#1 receiver" should finish with roughly 65 catches, 876 yards, and 5 or 6 touchdowns. That would be good for between 115 and 120 fantasy points in non-PPR leagues and 180-185 points in PPR leagues.

Interestingly, the above projected numbers are very similar to the WORST totals ever registered by the #1 receiver in a 'Dinger offense. In 2000, Mason only has 63 catches. In 2005, Coles only had 845 yards. And three times, the top pass-catcher had only five touchdowns.

In 2007, the projected numbers above would have yielded a receiver around WR30. Other non-injured names that show up around WR30 included Chris Chambers, Nate Burleson, Donald Driver, and Lee Evans.

If we take the averages given above and reduce them by only 10%, then we are left with the following projected conclusions:

The Titans "#1 receiver" should finish with 73 receptions, 985 yards, and 6 touchdowns. That would be good for about 128 points in non-PPR leagues and 200 points in PPR leagues.

In 2007, those numbers would have yielded a receiver around WR24, near Dwayne Bowe, Jerricho Cotchery, and Bernard Berrian.

I imagine that this is where someone chimes in that the talent Heimerdinger had to work with at receiver and quarterback in the last eight seasons is superior to the talent on this year's Titans team. I disagree: Derrick Mason, Drew Bennett, Brooks Bollinger, Billy Volek? Mason was a punt-returner until he found a place in Heimerdinger's system. Bennett was a third string quarterback. Bollinger and Volek are TERRIBLE passers. Cutler was in his first year starting.

So, who will benefit? Who stands to gain the most from an eight-year history of averages? Simply put, Justin Gage is the Titans #1 receiver. I have heard every argument possible about the emergence of Justin McCareins and Roydell Williams, the potential of Lavelle Hawkins and Paul Williams, the talent of Brandon Jones. I've been following camp diligently and reading every clipping and quote coming out of Nashville and Gage appears poised to be the guy to target. Yes, it is possible that one of them will come from nowhere to lead the team in receiving. But the far more-likely scenario is that the player who is healthy (unlike Roydell), the player familiar with Vince Young (unlike Justin McCareins), and the player who tied for the team lead in receptions and led the team in yards last year when the offense was atrocious would is going to emerge as the best fantasy option for 2008.

The interesting thing is that a compelling case can be made for selecting Gage without fooling ourselves in to thinking he and Vince Young is going to suddenly be Joe Montana. For Gage to get to the numbers above, Young would need to get to about 3200 passing yards and 17 or so touchdowns. Lofty numbers for him? Perhaps, but 15 quarterbacks passed for over 3150 yards last season and the only quarterback who played more than 14 games who didn't reach that plateau was Young, who passed for 2546 yards. I think it's reasonable to think that with another year of experience, a fantastic offensive line, and a real NFL offense he can add 600 - 800 yards to his passing totals. Furthermore, Gage's performance in 2007 of 55 receptions, 750 yards, and two touchdowns doesn't make the above predictions too far-fetched.

In a conservative mindset, Justin Gage should finish the season in the top range of WR3s. With a couple breaks, he could be a solid WR2 with the chance (albeit remote) to move even higher.

Right now, you can draft him as WR57 - 27 spots of hidden potential at your fingertips.