Hidden Potential - Derrick Mason

  Posted 8/21 by Colin Dowling, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

There are certain passing games that command respect. Indy, New England, and Dallas (among others) are going to have multiple receiving options that post quality fantasy football numbers. However, as your draft carries on, you'll be making more and more decisions about whether to select the 2nd or 3rd pass-catching option on a high-octane offense or the lead receiver for a team that may put up pedestrian passing numbers. There is a certain level of production to be found in each case, but with very few exceptions (Brandon Stokley a few seasons ago and Chris Henry when he's not suspended come to mind as examples) third receiving options have rather limited upside. As such, there can be a little extra value found in selecting a number one receiver for a bad team based on the idea that with a little luck, that receiver can realize some upside not available to other receivers being drafted in the same area.

One such case this season is in Baltimore. The Ravens will start a quarterback that is either inexperienced, not very good, or both. Neither Kyle Boller nor Troy Smith has looked very good in the NFL and rookie Joe Flacco is almost assuredly going to carry a clipboard all season.

That said, there are a couple of reasons to take a deeper look at the Ravens passing game this season...

1. Cam Cameron - New offensive coordinator Cam Cameron is awfully good at getting the most out of his offense. True, the Miami Dolphins last season were fairly awful, but even with Cleo Lemon and company under center they still were 12th in the league in pass attempts. Part of that had to do with being behind on the scoreboard a lot, which leads us to the 2nd point...
2. The Ravens defense isn't what it once was. Yes, the defense will still be the strength of the team but that isn't saying as much now as it did 5 years ago. The Ravens were 22nd in the league in points allowed last season, and while it stands to reason they won't be that bad again this year, it seems unlikely that they'll return to the top of the league among defenses in that category.

As a result, the Cam Cameron called offense this season is more likely to be one similar to last year's Miami offense - passing a lot, playing from behind - then the Cameron led offense in San Diego. Admittedly, Cameron's most productive fantasy players tend to be his running backs, which bodes well for Willis McGahee and/or Ray Rice under normal conditions. And, yes, the Ravens will no doubt open the game running the ball as much as possible.

But if you believe the Ravens will continue to be a mediocre (at best) team this season as I do, then there is value to be found in the passing game regardless of your feelings about Kyle Boller and Troy Smith.

While other players (such as Mark Clayton and Todd Heap) will certainly garner a lot of looks as will the running backs in Cameron's system, history would suggest that Derrick Mason is going to continue on as the lead receiver for the Ravens. With the exception of 2006, Mason has garnered more than 1,000 yards in each of the last 7 seasons (twice with Baltimore). Mason has also finished as a top 26 receiver in 7 of the last 8 seasons. It can be stated as fact that even at the age of 34, Mason will be the most productive receiver that Cam Cameron has worked with in a long time. He will be leaned on early and often and could benefit from an even larger number of targets then he's had in the past.

So why in the world is his Average Draft Position that of nearly a WR4? He's currently hovering between WR36 and WR37 in 12-team leagues near the end of round 8, which indicates a fair amount of value for fantasy owners. One metric to look at in selecting a player in Mason's position is variance from season to season. Mason has finished as high as WR7 and as low as WR49 in the last 8 seasons. However, tossing out the "high" and the "low", we are left with Mason finishing 26th, 11th, 25th, 17th, 24th, and 20th during that time frame. That is a remarkably consistent average of being a quality WR2. Along the way he's had numerous quarterbacks throwing to him (McNair, Volek, O'Donnell, Boller, Wright, McNair again, Boller some more) and only seen one real dip in production (2006). Mason has started 79 of the last 80 games in which he's been available - and played in all 80 - and should have yet another quietly productive season in Baltimore.

This may read like a "Spotlight" for Derrick Mason and perhaps, in part, it is. But it's just as important to focus on the fact that for all intents and purposes, Baltimore will be throwing the ball as often or more as they have in recent seasons when Mason had success. He has some upside, particularly when it comes to touchdowns as he has only totaled 10 in three seasons with Baltimore. He has a new offensive coordinator whose talent is undeniable. And his team's normally topflight defense is starting to show some cracks. That means more passes, more receptions, and more value in selecting Derrick Mason. Considering he's currently being selected after receivers like Nate Burleson, Patrick Crayton, and Anthony Gonzalez - none of whom are their team's primary receivers - and it's easy to see the Hidden Potential in Derrick Mason.