Don't Believe the Hype

  Posted 8/20 by Colin Dowling, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

We've all been there. It's preseason and in a thirst for some football, you're watching deep in to the fourth quarter of every game. And without fail, "he" will appear. "He" is that 4th string running back, maybe a rookie or second year player, who just looks AWESOME. Did you see him carry two linebackers for extra yardage? Did you notice that shiftiness as he broke to the outside for a huge gain?

The next day, the coach is raving. His teammates are impressed. The General Manager is talking about "quality depth" and saying things like, "he's a special player." Next thing you know, it's draft day and your spending 11th and 12th round picks on players like Quinton Ganther and Michael Bennett. And why wouldn't you? Those guys are tearing it up in the preseason. Even against a third-team defense, they look really, really good. With ability like that, they'll no doubt get some touches this season and if something were to happen to the guy ahead of them, they could pay huge dividends for your squad. Right?

Sorry to be the wet blanket, but you would do yourself a favor not to buy in to the hype. Because while "he" was busy running wild in the preseason, you weren't paying attention to what really matters when it comes to a third or fourth string running back.

CAN. HE. BLOCK?

While we are all anxious to find late-round gold in our picks, and no gold shines brighter then a steal at running back, the vast majority of 3rd and 4th string rushers are 3rd and 4th string rushers for one of two reasons.

1. They can't catch. A team's starting running back is almost always a well rounded player, capable of running up the middle and breaking it outside. They also can grab the occasional screen pass and turn it upfield. In the event they aren't much of a receiver, the team almost always has a clearly defined back who excels in the passing game, typically referred to as a "third round back." The 3rd and 4th string guys might be fine in a game of pitch and catch, but when it comes to running routes (and a screen pass most certainly requires a well-run route), catching with the hands, collecting the ball and turning up the field, they can't do it.


2. They can't block. This is the big one. No running back, no matter how fast or shifty or strong is going to get on the field for more than a token carry or two if they can't pick up a blitz. Period. End of story. Sure, he might make the team and play on kickoffs and might even end up with a carry or two here or there while the starter adjusts his helmet on the sideline. But there is a better chance of Michael Vick winning the MVP award this season then a running back who can't block getting more than a couple dozen carries over the course of the season. Even if the ONLY snaps the player gets are clear rushing plays, the possibility of audible makes the liability far too great to insert a player who can't pick up a linebacker coming at full-speed towards the franchise quarterback.

I've been there too, trying to find a steal late in the draft. And on occasion, a player that no one expected to shine does just that. But if you were paying attention during preseason, that surprise player was probably demonstrating solid blocking skills. Kevan Barlow and Troy Hambrick may not have been great rushers, but any chance they had to develop was cut completely by the fact that they simply couldn't be trusted to keep the quarterback off his backside. And Warrick Dunn continues to be employed (and well paid) at the age of 33 because despite his smaller stature, he can catch well and he can BLOCK.

If you want to find a late round steal at running back, go for it. This season, there appear to be a number of guys playing well enough in the preseason to garner a second look. Players like Michael Bush and Steve Slaton are certainly worth your attention. But rather then be impressed by box scores the next morning that show lots of carries and lots of yardage, try and find out how well the player is doing at picking up the blitz on plays where they don't get the ball. A guy who blocks well but only runs for 3.5 yards per carry will invariably have a much longer career then a guy who runs for 4.5 yards per carry but can't slow down an oncoming rusher.

If "he" can't block, then "he" shouldn't be on your team because "he" isn't going to produce for you.