Dynasty - Running on Empty
Updated 8/21 by Colin Dowling, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
In my Year 2 article a few weeks ago, I outlined a strategy for dynasty leagues wherein an owner could focus specifically on next season and build up a roster of future stars and studs by paying discounted prices now. This time around, I'd like to offer some ideas about how to get your good-not-great dynasty team over the hump in the short term. Converse to the Year 2 strategy, this strategy revolves around paying discounted prices for players that don't have much of a future.
Most dynasty leagues sort themselves out over time much like the NFL. For any 3 or 4 year period, the same 2 or 3 teams look the best on paper followed by a group of 3 or 4 more "contenders," followed by a group of 3 or 4 teams that don't scare anyone, followed by the last 2 or 3 teams that always seem to be picking at the top of the draft. As players mature and luck takes hold with prospects panning out, the cycle shifts a bit. And there are of course variances where a team will surprise everyone when a stashed away prospect like Derek Anderson or Wes Welker becomes an every-week starter and vaults the team up a rung or two.
However, there is another tool at your disposal while you wait for a prospect to pan out that can help you go from "contender" to "favorite", if only for a year or two. That tool is to find players whose values are declining but still have some tread left on the tire. To employee this strategy, you have to accept that you are buying a rapidly depreciating asset. The flipside is that while the asset's league value is going downhill like a snowball, the asset's performance may be declining at a significantly slower pace. To get over the hump in dynasty leagues, you sometimes have to go on and pay for "right now" performance with the realization that you're not going to be able to benefit from statistical production then recoup some of your investment in a trade later on.
Many of the players you pick up in this strategy will likely be players that retire from the league or that you end up cutting or trading for next to nothing next summer. If you want to win now, then I suggest you worry about next summer when next summer gets here.
QUARTERBACKS
Brett Favre's value was low enough to be included here about 10 weeks ago when everyone thought he was happily retired. Now? There is very little chance you could find someone to trade him to you for a discount just because he's old. He's still Brett Favre and he finished second in MVP voting last year. That means he isn't going to be hanging out on the discount rack.
As an alternative, I would suggest Jeff Garcia. Garcia is the starting quarterback for the Tampa Bay Bucs and while there are about 3 dozen other passers on the roster at present, the job appears to be solidly with Garcia. Garcia finished as QB19 in 13 games in 2007 in his first year with Tampa Bay. He accounted for 14 touchdowns against only 4 interceptions and threw for 187 yards per game. While those numbers hardly stick out as great production, Garcia has the benefit of another year in the offense and will likely improve on a game by game basis. 3300 passing yards and 22 total touchdowns should be an easy mark to reach, and he could go even higher. Remember that this is an offense that delivered Rich Gannon an MVP award when he was 37 years old. Garcia likely has 2 more quality years left in him, and his production should well eclipse younger quarterbacks with a higher assigned dynasty value.
RUNNING BACKS
Edgerrin James finished as the 10th rated running back in 2007 and the Cardinals did almost nothing to add depth to the position. He should be good for another quality season or two at a minimum, yet his age (he'll be 30 this month) and longevity have made owners begin to bail on him. Let that mistake be your gain. James has missed one game in 4 seasons and appears to be as productive now as anytime since he hurt his knee in 2000. His touchdown numbers are now a bit more average, but James still presents great value in dynasty leagues. Our FootballGuys.com dynasty rankings place him at RB27, a position he's almost certain to outperform this year and (probably) next.
Similarly, Warrick Dunn has had a career filled with low-expectations. Perhaps it's because he's always shared the load with another running back, perhaps it's his small stature. But Dunn has been exceeding expectations his whole career and now that he's aging a bit, his value is taking a plunge even though there is very little reason to think his production will decline as quickly.
Dunn was signed to a two-year deal (for a hefty six million smackers) to rejoin Tampa Bay. The Bucs will likely lean on Earnest Graham a fair amount, but Warrick Dunn should still earn plenty of touches. Consider that he hasn't missed a game in 4 seasons during which time he's averaged 265 carries at 4.2 yards each to go with 30 receptions a season. Warrick Dunn's production has essentially been the exact same every year since he was 24 with the notable difference of a decline in receptions in recent years.
For some perspective on Dunn's value in dynasties, he is ranked by only one FootballGuys staffer in our dynasty rankings, placing him 71st among running backs. In essence, a veteran is returning to a team from his heyday with a fat new contract, thin competition ahead of him, no real drop in production over the years, and he's only the 71st most valuable running back in dynasty leagues going forward? Sign me up. Warrick Dunn can likely be had for pennies on the dollar yet still produce top 30 running back numbers as he has in EVERY SEASON OF HIS CAREER.
Deuce McAllister is difficult to gauge because he is coming off of an injury. As such, he has a mitigating factor that might ruin his prospects outright, but he's still an interesting case. At present, McAllister only makes the grade for 5 of our 7 staffers ranking dynast running backs and sits at RB50 in those rankings. While Pierre Thomas and Aaron Stecker (not to mention Reggie Bush) could greatly cut in to his value, if Deuce gets back to 2006 form, he's an outright STEAL in dynasty leagues. All over fantasy boards, Deuce is a "toss-in" to trades more than the key piece of them. All of this for a guy that has rebounded from injury many times in the past, is only 29 this season, plays in a high-powered offense, and is already back practicing and playing in the preseason. Put it this way: if McAllister hadn't been hurt in 2007, he'd likely be a top-50 redraft pick this year. As it sits currently in dynasty leagues, he can be had for next to nothing and still may have 2 or 3 quality seasons left in his legs.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Wide receivers lose their value a little more slowly because most fantasy owners realize that a receiver can be well in to his thirties and still present great value. That said, the fact that Joey Galloway is being slotted in dynasty rankings behind guys like D.J. Hackett and Mark Clayton is a serious travesty. Galloway remains the Bucs top receiver, he's still super fast, and has averaged over 17 yards per reception the last two seasons. Galloway doesn't get hit much, essentially runs one route ("Go as fast as possible downfield!") and has no real competition in Tampa for key receptions. Folks may look at the 37 year old and wonder how much longer he can play. I am of the opinion that unless he gets sick of football, Galloway should be a solid fantasy option - and DEFINITELY better then the 40th best receiver in the league - for at least another year or two.
Rated not far below Galloway in many dynasty rankings is 35-year old Muhsin Muhammad. Muhsin spent the last three years in Chicago, "where receivers go to die" (his words, not mine) and never caught more than 64 balls. However, he now returns to Carolina where has had great success with Jake Delhomme and opposite Steve Smith. While he isn't likely to catch 16 touchdowns again as he did when Smith was injured, the fact that Muhammad can be had for a very, very late selection or deep prospect is value that you should take advantage of if you are in a large league. He is a little older, but his failings in Chicago weren't all his fault. A 70 catch, 700 yard season is certainly possible, which is more than can be said of the 3 dozen rookie wide receivers that will be selected ahead of him in Free Agent / Rookie drafts.
Perhaps the finest example of a receiver with a little tread left on the tire is Isaac Bruce. Bruce is slated to start at receiver in an offense guided by Mike Martz, who once upon a time made Bruce a top-tier fantasy player. The quarterback situation in San Francisco leaves much to be desired, but the same could have been said in Detroit and St. Louis and Martz still made darn-fine lemonade out of the lemons he found there. Bruce will be 36 this season, but he's only missed 8 games since 1999 and has averaged a respectable 14 yards per reception since his "prime" ended in 2002. Bruce's dynasty value is as a 5th wide-receiver, which seems a little silly considering he's young enough to produce for another couple of years and he actually has some significant room for upside in Mike Martz's offense.
There are likely other players who look to be a year or two from heading out to pasture yet still retain some value. I'd encourage you to realize that just because a player isn't likely to make the 2010 Pro-Bowl doesn't mean he is worthless in 2008. Lots of dynasty leagues have owners that are obsessed with young talent to a fault. I suggest taking advantage of those owners and snagging their less-exciting-yet-more-productive elder players for good value and good results this year.