Hidden Potential - Dolphins Running Game

Posted 8/17 by Colin Dowling, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

There are things in fantasy football that make no sense, things that look silly from the onset or end up looking silly in hindsight. There are problems caused by over-thinking a situation just as there are problems caused by not thinking enough. As to the "thing that makes no sense" that I'm about to reference, I'm stumped.

How in the world is Ronnie Brown available in the late 3rd round and how is Ricky Williams available in the 9th round?

Miami as a Team - The Tuna Factor

You can fool yourself in to believing that Bill Parcells is not playing an active role in the Dolphins' style of play if you like, but even the most hesitant observers would likely admit that the coaches, players, and style of play will be in the Tuna mold as long as he is in charge of Miami. While he may not be calling the plays, it's safe to say that the 2008 Dolphins will look a lot more like Parcells' teams as opposed to the Air Coryell offense (for example). As such, many of the projections I'm seeing about the Dolphins running attack - including those here at FootballGuys.com - have me scratching my head. We're projecting 414 carries for the dolphins. Of that, Ronnie Brown is expected to have 200, Ricky 135, and another 40 or so split between the other rushers. 375 or so carries out of the Miami backfield. Huh?

In Bill Parcells' coaching career with the Giants, Jets, Patriots, and Cowboys, he's never been part of a team that ran the ball fewer than 427 times. On average, his teams have run the ball 495 times. In the two seasons when the carries were abnormally low for the Tuna (427 and 431 attempts), he was relying on the not-so-talented Adrian Murrell to shoulder the load. I'm comfortable in making the leap in saying "Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are better than Adrian Murrell."

The Dolphin receivers are young and inexperienced and/or unexceptional in Ted Ginn, Derek Hagan, and Earnest Wilford. The Dolphins quarterback is a "game manager" in Chad Pennington, not a "play maker." These facts play right in to the strength of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams as pass-catchers out of the backfield. The Dolphins can't win shoot-outs with New England and the rest of the NFL so it stands to reason they will fall back on Parcells longtime theory of tough defense and a grind it out running game. As such...

Ronnie Brown

Ronnie Brown is being selected as the 20th running back overall, just after Michael Turner. For comparison, Turner is less proven then Brown as a workhorse, is on a worse team then Brown, has a less-desirable quarterback situation, runs behind a similarly flawed offensive line, and also has an arguably more-talented complement (Jerious Norwood) to split time with. Yet Turner is going ahead of a player in Ronnie Brown that has averaged 4.4 yards per carry and 44 receptions in three seasons with the Dolphins.

Brown is recovering from injury so it stands to reason that he may not be a 330 touch back this season, if ever. But Brown was off to a phenomenal start in 2007 - on pace for almost 2300 total yards, 90 receptions, and 11 touchdowns - before getting hurt. Is it so hard to imagine that if he is recovered and if he can stay healthy, he'll produce far more than the ~1300 total yards and ~ 42 receptions he's being projected for?

Rick Williams

How is Ricky Williams being drafted after...

4 Team Defenses
16 quarterbacks
41 wide receivers
10 tight ends
39 running backs

Before you put me out to pasture for being insane, let's examine chronicle all of Ricky's "negatives." By all accounts, Ricky...

Is 31 years old
Hasn't played NFL football, save one short series last year, since 2005.
Is behind Ronnie Brown on the depth chart.
Has been injured in each of the last 3 seasons going back to the 2005 campaign.
Has more than a little bit of "crazy" in his past.

So, with all of those things working against him, the case for Williams should be hard to build...right? Not so fast. In addition to the above listed negatives, Ricky also has this going on:

He is behind a back that can't stay healthy either.
He is on a team that won't have a deep passing attack, utilizing his skills as a receiver out of the backfield.
He is on a team that will no doubt run the ball a TON.
He is on a team with a brand new, #1 overall pick left tackle.

It is very easy to imagine a scenario in which Ronnie Brown plays 16 games, garners 300+ touches, and relegates Ricky to the bench for most of the season (which would likely result in Brown being a top-10 running back). But the cold hard facts are that all indicators - press clippings from practices as far back as May, Bill Parcells history, the lack of a vertical passing game - suggest that either Ronnie Brown is going to touch the ball 400 times or Ricky Williams is going to get a significant chunk of work. Put me in the camp that thinks the latter. The Dolphins will certainly lead with Brown, possibly by as much as a 2/1 touch ratio to Williams. But in the interest of keeping Brown from getting hurt yet again and getting the most out of the talent they have on the roster, Ricky Williams will undeniably get his chances.

Summary

Williams and Brown will both have significant roles in the offense. Roles that should help Brown exceed his projected 240 touches. Roles that should help Williams exceed his 155 projected touches. It would be less of a surprise to see Williams and Brown combine for 500 touches then to see them end up with fewer than 400 combined touches. And in the event that the duo combine for 400 carries and 70 receptions, the payoff in rostering both players could be enormous.