The Upside Of Danger
Posted 7/21 by Colin Dowling, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
You got your sleeper list? Good. Got your Draft Dominator tuned and tweaked? Awesome. Got your chicken wings and a couple beers on ice, ready for the draft? Excellent work, my friend. Got your stomach?
Stomach?
Yes. Because if you want to leave the rest of your league in the dust this season, you're going to need it, and not just for the aforementioned wings and beer.
The fact of the matter is that you can build a strong team with a good chance to win using solid projections and strategy. However, put me in the category that doesn't want a strong team with a good chance to win. I want to build a team that makes the rest of my league shudder. I want people to see my squad on the schedule and count it as a loss. I want to build a team that makes the rest of the league realize the best they'll do is second place. You've no doubt already sighed and said, "Well, duh. That's what we all want." As my retort, I'll ask you a serious question: Really?
If you want to build a strong team with a good chance to win, quit reading, because I'm only going to frustrate you. If you want to build a team that has a chance to step on the throats of everyone else in your league, let's get down to business.
Truth is, just like individual players, a high-reward team (which is what we're wanting to build) is often first a high-risk team. In the last few years of drafting, I've had many rosters that looked downright dreadful between draft day and opening day, and I'm sure some of you have too. Recent draft day reaches that were genius in hindsight are things like drafting Clinton Portis as a rookie, selecting Anquan Boldin on a hunch, or selecting Frank Gore to carry your team when his reputation was as an injured underachiever.
Now, this isn't supposed to be a study in how I personally draft or the decisions I might make. It's also not supposed to be encouragement for you to make silly decisions and reach for players "just because." Like most fantasy players, I've hit some out of the park and I've missed on some (like thinking Robert Ferguson was going to be a great receiver or Cedric Benson was going to be a great running back). However, regardless of format, the teams I've had that have led to the greatest success are NOT the teams that are built to be solid, but the team's that are built to absolutely and completely maximize point potential. I often target good players with all the tools and situation to be great. As such, you need to realize that there are times when overpaying or reaching for a guy on draft day looks like an excellent move in hindsight.
Below are four players that strike me as being players that can maximize point potential. It isn't important that you agree with my assessments or not. I'm hoping to show you the logic I'm using so you can apply it to the players you are considering as well. Some of these guys may strike you as obvious value plays, while others look insane. Fair enough; I'm just trying to get you thinking about how to stock a roster full of guys that can blow up in the absolute best way rather then a roster of guys that don't have much room to improve.
Darren McFadden
Come draft day, the odds that Darren McFadden will slip out of the second round are pretty slim. The success of Adrian Peterson last year and the inevitable comparisons will no doubt mean someone in every league will try and snag McFadden early with the hope that his rookie season will be a monster.
I'm encouraging you to be that person.
If you were to look in to your crystal ball and tell me an NFL running back was going to eclipse 2,000 rushing yards this season, my first guess would be the aforementioned Peterson. My next guess, however, might surprise you: Darren McFadden. McFadden enters a situation where Justin Fargas ran for 1,000 yards (at 4.5 ypa) with virtually no passing game. Maybe Justin Fargas is a better player than he's been given credit for in the past. Regardless, I am CERTAIN that Darren McFadden's blistering agility and open-field ability make him a superior talent to Fargas. The key determinant of McFadden's success is going to be the development of JaMarcus Russell and his ability to keep defenses honest. Russell is a big armed quarterback and if the Raiders can experience even modest success on long downfield routes, Darren McFadden is going to have a ton of holes to run through. And as a longtime SEC fan, I can tell you with certainty that once McFadden is through the line, unbelievable things happen.
Is it possible McFadden has a mediocre rookie season relative to expectations? Of course. But I'm also certain that the players being selected around him don't have remotely near the upside of McFadden. For goodness sake, Edgerrin James and Earnest Graham are being taken ahead of a runner who has perhaps the best vision since Tomlinson entered the league. Pass on him at your own risk.
Vince Young
I'm sure you already have an opinion on Vince Young, and I'm not going to try and change that opinion. But at present, Young is the 19th quarterback off the board and is being selected near the beginning of the 10th round.
This is ludicrous.
Young ranked 12th among fantasy quarterbacks as a rookie and 19th last season. In 2007, he was near worthless for touchdown production and didn't run nearly as much as he did as a rookie. And he still finished 19th. The only way his current ADP is justified is if you think he and the Titans - who have a new offensive coordinator and a handful of new offensive weapons in Alge Crumpler and Chris Johnson - will be the same or worse than they were in 2007.
As for the point of this article, Vince Young is no doubt an exciting player capable of doing phenomenal things at any given time. Those are the qualities you should target when building a high-upside team. Ask yourself, "is Player X a threat to score or throw a touchdown every time they touch the ball?" Whether you are a fan of Young or not, the answer to this question is a resounding "yes." Outside of Romo, Brady, Manning, and perhaps Palmer and Brees, what other quarterbacks carry such undeniable upside every time they take a snap? In the case of Young and his late draft position, the risk is far outweighed by the potential reward.
Chris Henry and Mike Williams
Players like Henry and Williams offer unique value rarely seen on draft day. They can be selected in the final round or two while other teams are selecting 3rd string running backs or rookie quarterbacks yet they have shown top-tier talent somewhere along the way.
Henry may not be on a roster come opening day or he may be suspended by the NFL. But he's managed to come out on the right side of his legal troubles this offseason and his talent is immense. Henry averages roughly one touchdown per five receptions and 15 yards per catch. He no doubt has benefited from Carson Palmer's arm and the coverage his teammates commanded, but he has proven he can make tough catches, gain tough yards, and find the endzone with regularity. Can he excel as a number one receiver? Only time will tell, but the addition of Henry by a turf team (Atlanta) or a team with a strong armed quarterback (Oakland) could make him the steal of the draft at the receiver position this season. No one would be shocked if he didn't play a down this year due to off-field issues. But would you be surprised if he erupted for 900 yards and 10 touchdowns for a team like Dallas? Neither would I.
Mike Williams has had quite a gap between being a stud, impossible-to-cover college player and now. That said, he's on a team with no standout receivers and his size and hands make him a very intriguing option late in the draft. His biggest problem continues to be conditioning but all of the news out of Nashville has him taking this last chance at NFL glory very seriously. Like Henry, it wouldn't be a surprise for him to get cut in camp. But I can also very easily see an 80 catch season coming in Tennessee as Vince Young develops.
In summary, the four players above represent a few players who not only have the ability and opportunity to significantly outperform their draft position, but have the ability and opportunity to explode in to the stratosphere and make your opponents wince. Will they? I'm sure opinions will differ, which is a good thing.
However, I would encourage you in the days leading up to the draft to realize that you aren't likely to remember much about a season where your squad went 8-5 and lost in the playoffs just as you won't remember much about a team that goes 5-8 and misses the playoffs entirely. But I assure you, you will remember every player involved and every sweet victory when you hit one out of the park and steamroll over your entire league. My experience has been that the only way to accomplish this is to make some gambles on draft day. Often times those gambles are based more on gut feeling then deep logic. I just hope you have the stomach to handle it.