Breaking Down the Backup Running Backs

  Posted 8/18 by Colin Dowling, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

In the mid-to-late rounds of your draft, you'll no doubt be deciding on what running backs are worth a roster spot and which ones aren't. Chances are good that you'll be trying to make a decision between a player who can contribute some with little risk and little chance for upside and one who may not contribute at all but has a chance to blow up if the situation presents itself. Below, I've categorized most of the running backs available between rounds 7 and 15 to help you know in advance of your draft who has a high floor and who has a high ceiling.

Starters

Likely to get lots of touches, but another running back on the team is expected to compete for lots of carries.

DeAngelo Williams

The fact that the Panthers drafted Jon Stewart in the first round doesn't mean Williams is suddenly untalented, but it does indicate that the team thinks that a second back is necessary to succeed. While Williams will no doubt garner plenty of carries, most folks agree that it is only a matter of time until the faster, stronger Stewart takes over the bulk of the work. While Williams certainly stands to start the season as a productive runner, it shouldn't take long for him to be back in a RBBC situation for a few weeks before ceding a great deal of the work - particularly around the goalline - to Stewart.

• Upside: Low
  
• Floor: Medium

Ahman Green

It's amazing that Green has anything left in the tank after all the carries and injuries he's piled up. That said, Green was better than expected last season for Houston and even with the addition of Chris Brown, if Green can get healthy and stay healthy he should be able to produce numbers better than his draft position in 2008. On the other hand, if his injuries and age start to catch up with him, he could lose out on touches in a hurry.

• Upside: Low
• Floor: Low

Deuce McAllister

McAllister is the very definition of a boom or bust pick this season. He had yet another season ending injury last September (torn ACL) and will compete with Pierre Thomas and Aaron Stecker for carries alongside Reggie Bush. Aside from the injuries, McAllister's fantasy prospects took a near-terminal hit with the addition of Bush since it is Bush and not Deuce that garners most of the passes out of the backfield. Once upon a time, Deuce was good for a LOT of receptions; now his best case role is to wear down the other team's front-seven so Bush can work his magic. That said, if McAllister is healthy - an admittedly HUGE "if" - and ready to play, he should be able to beat out Thomas and Stecker and has a remote chance to produce at 2006 levels. On the flipside, if he's hurt or slowed (ACL injuries typically take two seasons to recover from), he'll be splitting carries with Thomas and Stecker and will offer almost no value.

• Upside: High
• Floor: Low

Backups

Unlikely to contribute much unless an injury befalls the starter ahead of them.

Ray Rice

Talk about your great situations. Ray Rice is backing up an injured running back on a team that will need to rely heavily on the run. And, oh yeah, their offensive coordinator (Cam Cameron) has the Midas touch with running backs, having previously helped LaDainian Tomlinson and Ronnie Brown (before injury) post stellar fantasy numbers. Willis McGahee is supposed to be ready at the beginning of the season, which will presumably relegate Rice to bench duty. That said, Ray Rice is a compact, tough runner who has the talent and intangibles to jump right in and produce should an injury befall McGahee. And in the event that the team tries to limit McGahee's touches a bit to keep him fresh as has been reported in the offseason, Rice could be a solid performer nonetheless.

• Upside: High
• Floor: Medium

Tatum Bell

Tatum Bell started the offseason at the top of Detroit's depth chart, but most folks realize that position was more of "make the rookie earn it" then anything else. Kevin Smith will likely get the bulk of the work in Detroit, which doesn't have a potent run-offense in the first place. Bell is not a great receiver nor is he a very good pass-blocker, so 3rd Down duties may not be in his future either. It's difficult to see Bell doing much more than giving Smith a breather unless the rookie gets injured or completely fails to perform. Even if Smith falls apart, Bell's past production leaves a lot to be desired.

• Upside: Low
• Floor: Low

Brandon Jackson

Jackson is stuck behind 2007's fantasy surprise Ryan Grant. Grant finally got his contract situated and should see most of the work. Jackson will certainly receive some carries, but recent concerns about his pass-blocking ability mean that he likely won't receive extended time until either he is desperately needed (i.e. a Grant injury) or he improves as a blocker.

• Upside: Medium
• Floor: Low

Depth

Likely to garner a fair number of touches in spelling the starter ahead of them, but unlikely to see lots of playing time barring injury to the starter. (*The other side of our "Starters")

Felix Jones

While Marion Barber III stands to see the bulk of the action out of the backfield, he is unproven as an every down back and will likely give up some touches to the super-speedy Jones. That said, MBIII is a proven receiver out of the backfield and one of the best goalline backs in the NFL, so it stands to reason that Jones's touches may be more between the 20's then anywhere else. Jones may garner a higher percentage of his team's total touches then other members of this list, but don't expect him to be a great fantasy option except in the deepest leagues.

• Upside: Low
• Floor: Medium

Ricky Williams

The latest injury (thumb) to Ronnie Brown in addition to Ricky Williams' very productive preseason should be yet another indicator that #34 is going to receive plenty of work. While the Dolphins line and passing game leave much to be desired, there will no doubt be enough work out of the backfield for both Williams and Brown. While Ricky has had his share of troubles both on the field and off in the last three years, try not to forget that not long ago he was one of the premier backs in the league and he hasn't suffered a lot of hits since then.

• Upside: High
• Floor: Medium

Chester Taylor

Chester Taylor may not see as many carries as last season as Adrian Peterson continues to develop, but as the second back on a team with perhaps the best run-blocking line in the league, his value is undeniable. Even with a healthy Peterson, Taylor will no doubt spell him both between the 20's and near the goalline. Taylor may not have the talent of the guy ahead of him, but he can be a productive back in his own right and represents solid value this late in the draft.

• Upside: Medium
• Floor: Medium

Justin Fargas

Fargas received a new contract in the offseason and even with the addition of Darren McFadden, he was expected to see a fair amount of work as the rookie made a transition to the NFL. That said, McFadden's quick adjustment combined with Michael Bush's phenomenal preseason so far should give you pause when considering Fargas on draft day. True, he could end up as the 1B to McFadden's 1A and has shown he can produce in the NFL, but the water is far too murky at this point to project Fargas' season with any accuracy.

• Upside: Medium
• Floor: Low

Maurice Morris

Depending on who you listen to, Morris is either going to get his chance as the Seahawks' lead rusher or he's going to split time with Julius Jones. Coach Mike Holmgren has said that the "hot hand" will play, which, if true, means that Morris's prospects will vary from week to week. While the temptation is great to think Mo will finally get his chance, the Seattle line isn't as strong as it once was and the presence of Jones will no doubt minimize the upside he has.

• Upside: Medium
• Floor: Medium

Chris Brown

Ahman Green is hurt again which should be good news for Brown. But the Texans just signed more depth (Marcel Shipp) and rookie Steve Slaton appears to be coming on strong during the preseason. Brown will likely receive a fair number of carries, but even with Green hurt, it looks like the competition may be too stiff for him to rise to "every-down" status. At a minimum, Slaton will likely get a number of looks as a third-down runner which will cut in to Brown's prospects a fair amount. Worst case, Slaton (and the return of Green) could bury Brown on the bench by midseason.

• Upside: Medium
• Floor: Low

Derrick Ward

I'm of the opinion that Ward is the most talented back in New York. Fortunately for fantasy owners, a late-season injury has many folks watching Ahmad Bradshaw instead of Ward when looking at the backup for Brandon Jacobs. Ward could be a real high-upside later round selection based on the fact that Jacobs has had some injury history and Ward has filled in admirably in the past. On the flip-side, an injury of his own or stellar play from Jacobs and/or Bradshaw could make this a tough season for Ward.

• Upside: High
• Floor: Low

Goalline and Situational

Backs that will earn touches based on specific skill-sets such as receiving skills or short-yardage proficiency

Chris Johnson

Hold the phones. Despite plenty of offseason banter about Johnson being a complement to LenDale White, the last couple of weeks have produced plenty of "insider" sound-bytes that Johnson could receive as many touches as White if not take over rushing duties all together. While Fantasy hype may elevate his draft value, Johnson's talent is hard to deny and he's not exactly competing for touches with Jim Brown. At a minimum, he'll be used in a variety of situations and should catch a ton of balls, even with White carrying the load.

• Upside: High
• Floor: Medium

Jerious Norwood

Norwood's sensational yards-per-carry in 2007 have many owners thinking he'll cut in to Michael Turner's production this season. They could be right, but two games in to the preseason, Turner looks like every bit the workhorse the Falcons thought they were getting. Norwood will likely get a nice number of touches that utilize his speed and receiving ability, but his upside is tied almost completely to the health of Turner.

• Upside: Medium
• Floor: Medium

Warrick Dunn

Dunn didn't sign a 6 million dollar deal for Jon Gruden to make him a forgotten man in Tampa. More likely, Dunn's receiving ability and experience will get him on the field as a complement to apparent starter Earnest Graham. Michael Bennett may well be in the mix as well, but you have to think that Dunn's familiarity with Gruden, his hefty contract, and his talents as a receiver and player in a multi-back system will work in his favor and get him on the field plenty.

• Upside: Low
• Floor: Medium