The Perfect Draft - PPR (WCOFF) Rules

  Posted 8/29 by David Dodds, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

This is the last of a five-part series.

Key Reference Material (Print out before your WCOFF Draft):

WCOFF Drafting Ranges
WCOFF Average Draft Position
WCOFF - Number Drafted

These articles are from 2005, but the scoring has not changed at all so the data should still be very accurate. The only piece that seems to have changed a bit is that the top QBs generally go a few picks sooner than this article indicates.

You need to approach this draft as if you are trying to end up with the best team out of 1000+ that will be playing. This is possibly the most important point. Beating 11 owners and qualifying for the big dance with a roster that can never win the event should not be the desired effort. Things that work in your normal 12 team league can be counter-productive to fielding a winning WCOFF team.

Specifically, I think these things are LOSING plays in WCOFF:

• Handcuffing players with two picks in the first 8 rounds. You need to pick a side and gamble that it is correct. Handcuffs waste a roster spot. If you backup Adrian Peterson with Chester Taylor, are you really going to win the league if Adrian Peterson breaks a leg and is out for the year?



• Taking a QB before round 7. This has to do with the rules (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex + PPR). Take a look at how things change for the top QB as the rules change (from the VBD App):
  
  1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE (no flex, no PPR) - Brady = 4 overall
  1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE (no flex, no PPR) - Brady = 5 overall
  1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE (no flex, PPR) - Brady - 11 overall
  1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE (flex, PPR) - Brady - 21 overall (WCOFF Rules)
  
  This effect is even more evident when you examine where Peyton Manning ends up (54th with WCOFF scoring). Suffice it to say all of the elite QBs will be taken too early. Wait until the 8th round and then get ready to pounce on one of the best players left.



• Taking a TE early. Every year someone flying way below the radar at TE puts up solid numbers. Using a fourth rounder for someone like Witten, Gates or Winslow will have you lagging behind all the owners that fielded a productive TE after round 10. I would look at the TE position in round 7 or later.



• Drafting a second QB, first defense and/or first PK in the first 2/3 of the draft. The RBs and WRs are going to dry up. You need to have your share of these players to improve your chances that one emerges. Use your last picks to secure your second QB and first PK and defense. Do not draft more than one kicker or defense.

I have examined a lot of winning rosters over the years and believe the winning teams had this in common:

1. Winning teams usually took a RB in the first round (Sometimes your draft position dictates going WR in round 1, but unfortunately those teams usually did not fare as well). After 5 rounds, these teams usually had 2 RBs and 3WRs.



2. Drafting RB, RB, RB with your first three picks is generally a LOSING strategy. In fact, the biggest key to winning is finding that all or nothing RB later in the draft so you can stockpile elite WRs in rounds 2 and 3.



3. The most common winning team design started with the first four picks as follows:
   RB, WR, RB, WR and RB, WR, WR, RB



4. Winning teams roster a LOT of WRs. With the ability to start 4 on any given week, the WR position is VERY valuable in this format.



5. Winning teams had a solid CORE (first 6 picks) and many fliers AFTER that. These teams also were very active in the blind bidding process through the season.



6. Some of their HOMERUNS hit (either by the draft or waivers) to give them a very solid lineup every week. These homeruns by definition are not value picks. They are swings for the fences. Most end up being whiffs, but some (when hit) catapult teams to the top of this event.



7. Teams drafted to win their first eleven games. You need to have the best record or the most points after 11 games to play in week for the right to join the Championship bracket (where all the big money is). So choosing second half guys (rookies, drug suspensions, tough early schedules, etc with any early picks is a recipe for disaster). Wins are important NOW.



8. Playoff teams usually took advantage of the Thursday night stats (ie paying a slight premium for the studs from the early game and avoiding those players that stunk). If selecting some of these players gets you a week 1 win, that is indeed significant. The Sharks took Charlie Batch a few years ago after he lit up the scoreboard in a Thursday night game with the sole purpose of using him in week 1 and then dropping him.



9. All things being equal (same projected fantasy points), take the WR or TE that catches a lot of balls over the redzone TD producer. Guys like Cotchery, Winslow excel in PPR leagues because of all of their catches. If the TDs ever come, you could have an elite producer.

Generally, If I took a RB in round 1, I would look to grab WRs in rounds 2 and 3.

If I took a WR in round 1, I would look to take a RB in round 2 and a WR in round 3.

In rounds 4 and 5 I would make selections based on value to get my roster to be 3WRs and 2 RBs.

Let's have the perfect WCOFF draft.

The goal is to get you the best possible team and to make sure you don't overpay for players that can still be had a few rounds later. What I look for are players that I project significantly better than where they are being drafted. The positional analysis tracks to my projections.

This article assumes a 12 team league using scoring that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 Def and 1 PK. It also assumes this scoring criteria: 1 point per 20 yards passing, 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 1 point per reception, 4 points per passing TD, 6 points per rushing/receiving TD, -1 points for interceptions.

In a 12-team draft, there is pressure to grab the quality RBs before they are gone. In a WCOFF draft, there is pressure on RBs and WRs while the rest of the positions generally slide until teams have 2 RBs and 3 WRs. This point is important, because failure to lock up solid RBs and WRs within the first few rounds of the draft will likley cost you a chance at competing for the title.

Instead of concentrating on things by position, I believe the correct approach is to grab the best player available until the Top 50 are off the board. With some luck and creating the right Top 50 list, you are hopeful to still be drafting from this list when you complete the 5th round (70 picks). If you are still using this list in the 7th round, you are positioned well to make a strong run in this contest

Creating the Perfect 50 List for WCOFF Leagues. Because ADP is a crucial barometer on when players will get drafted, I believe it's important to merge the Footballguys Top 200 PPR with ADP to create a single Top 50 draft list. Here is how I create this list.

• For players that have a value lower than ADP, use the average of the two numbers.
  
• For players that have a value higher than ADP, use the value number.
  

Example: Player A has a value of 13 and an ADP of 21. His "drafting" value would be 17. (13 + 21)/2. Conversely, if Player has a value of 21 and an ADP of 13, his "drafting" value would be 21.

Doing this for the PPR Top 200 list yields these Top 50 players (ranked from 1st to 50).

The First 50 Players:

Essentially you are just looking to grab the best player available until this list is exhausted. But use some common sense while you do this. You must take at least one RB within the first three rounds of the draft (no exceptions). Additionally limit yourself to at most one QB or TE from this list. If you draft a QB because he represents value, then you must wait and get a TE late (drafted after the top 50 is depleted). Conversely if you draft a TE early, then you must wait and get a QB late.

I would pay little to no attention to bye weeks during this phase. You have plenty of time to adjust after the Top 50 players are gone.

After the Top 50 Players are Taken - Assessment / Building Your Core Phase

The transition from the Top 50 to rounding out your team based on need is a critical one. Your anlysis here can instantly turn a good draft into a great one. Here are the questions you should be asking yourself to determine your weaknesses:

• How many backs did you secure? The average owner should have 1.8. Do you have at least two? Is this a position of strength for your team? If the answer is no, this should be your prime objective


• Did you draft a QB or TE yet? If so consider yourself done at this position until very late in the draft. If you have not drafted these positions yet, do not panic. Good ones will be available late in your WCOFF draft.


• Assess your bye week situation. If two or more of your first four players are off on the same bye week, I will usually sacrifice that week to be strong in every other week. If that is not the case, then I look to patch the holes with complimentary players that could have big weeks during these rough spots. Teams lining up against Houston, Tennessee, Cleveland and Atlanta should all yield good results during these weeks.

As an example, Let's say you landed this team after 5 rounds (from the 3rd position):

• 3. RB Brian Westbrook, Phi/7
• 22. WR Marques Colston, NO/9
• 27. WR Torry Holt, StL/5
• 46. WR Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ/5
• 54. Laurence Maroney, NE/4

This is generally where you want to be. You have a slight week 5 bye issue, but have time to recover from that. You have two solid backs and three receivers.

So in this example your next steps would be:

• Grab another starting running back in the next two rounds (before they dry up).
• Add one WR in the next three rounds (without a week 5 bye).
• Add either your starting QB or TE in the next 3 rounds.

Fast-forwarding this roster, you should have 0-1 QBs, 3 RBs, 4 WRs and 0-1 TE after 8 rounds.

Here is another example (drafting from the 11th position):

• 11. WR Reggie Wayne, Ind/4
• 14. QB Tom Brady, NE/4
• 35. RB Brandon Jacobs, NYG/4
• 38. WR Brandon Marshall, Den/8
• 59. WR Laveranues Coles, NYJ/5

Assessing where you are at:

• You have a strong WR core with three top receivers. This is not a position of need, but you should likely add one in the 7th or 8th round for depth..
• You have just one RB. This should be your top priority since you need to start 2 each week and the good ones will dry up fast. Look to grab a RB in the next round and another in round 7 or 8.
• You have the best QB. Wait until late in the draft to add a backup
• You do not have a TE, but since you took a QB, you need to wait until late so that you do not miss out on key core talent in the next three rounds.
• You have your top three players on week 4 bye. Suffice it to say you are likely going to lose this game. But there is still time to round out your squad so that you at least field a team for week 4.

Fast-forwarding this roster, you should have 1 QB, 3 RBs, 4 WRs and 0 TE after 8 rounds.

See the theme here? That's right.

The Perfect WCOFFm Draft should have 0-1 QBs, 3 RBs, 4 WRs and 0-1 TEs after 8 rounds.

Moving to Fill Positional Needs

Using this Top 200 PPR list, here are some of the values that may be available at your WCOFF draft:

Quarterbacks

The plan is simple at the quarterback position this year. Unless you grab a top star at value from the Top 50 list above, wait until 8 or 9 quarterbacks are drafted before taking your first. In a WCOFF league this strategy will plop you firmly into the sweet spot of quarterback value.

Here are the quality fantasy QBs that I expect should be available after you have finished drafting players from your top 50 list:

• Jay Cutler, Den/8 (Value = 67th best player, ADP = 73rd) in the 7th round or later - Jay has an elite, but immature receiver in Brandon Marshall (who will unfortunately be forced to sit out the first 2 games of the season). But if the preseason is any indication, Marshall should pickup where he left off last year once he returns from suspension. And that's playing catch with Jay Cutler. In fact the two are rooming together during Marshall's suspension which should aid in the timing when he returns. Cutler, in his 2nd year, set career highs across the board before finishing with 3,497 passing yards and 20 TDs. He also quietly ran for 205 yards and a score on 44 carries. These stats were good enough to rank as the 11th best QB in 2007. The Denver running game this season isn't going to scare defenses (Travis Henry released, Selvin Young unproven, Pittman and Torain injured, etc). Denver has seen it's rushing carries erode each of the last three years (542 in 2005, 488 in 2006, and just 429 in 2007) and I see nothing to dissuade me from this changing this year. I also do not have much confidence that this team will be a winning team. And playing from behind generally results in even more pass plays during the season.


• David Garrard, Jac/7 (Value = 77th best player, ADP = 90th) in the 8th round or later - In just 12 games, Garrard ranked as the 16th best QB in 2007. He is the unquestioned starter on a team that is on the rise. Including playoff games, Garrard scored over 16 fantasy points in all but two of his games (12 of 14). Contrast that with Eli Manning who managed to score 16+ fantasy points in just 9 of his 20 games last season. Let others target Eli Manning around pick 82. You can pick up Garrard at a similar cost and have a player who you can count on week in and out.


• Matt Schaub, Hou/8 (Value = 87th best player, ADP = 100th) in the 9th round or later - Houston QBs threw for 3,925 yards and 24 TDs. Had one QB put up all those stats, he would likely be selected as a top 5 quarterback this season. Schaub got hurt last year and also was derailed a bit when he lost his go-to wide receiver in Andre Johnson. I expect Matt to take the next big step in his career as he hucks the rock around a lot in 2008. The Texan's backs scare no one (Ahman Green is injured again, no other team in the league wanted Chris Brown, Steve Slaton is a rookie that most teams passed on, etc). The Texans have averaged just 428 rush attempts over the last 3 years (with a low of 417 in 2007). With hasbeens and unproven players leading the way at running back, I think it's safe to say that 2008 will be another year of a lot of passing.

I would target these values later in the draft for added depth:

• Vince Young, Ten/6 (Value= 105th best player, ADP = 123th) in the 10th round or later.
• Jason Campbell, Was/10 (Value = 125th best player, ADP = 140th) in the 12th round or later.
• Kurt Warner, Ari/7 (Value= 149th best player, ADP = 171st) in the 15th round or later.

Running Backs

In most leagues, running backs are golden. Yes they can run and catch, but the real reason they are golden is that there simply are not enough of them to go around. But if you followed the Top 50 plan from above, you should have a nice stable of backs on your roster.

But two or three quality backs don't make a powerhouse fantasy roster...Having depth at RB does.

Here are other situation that I think represent value this year (outside of the Top 50 picks):

• Chris Perry, Cin/8 (Value = 91, ADP = 106) in the 9th round or later - Don't look now, but Rudi Johnson just got old in a hurry. Perry has been running with the first unit and finally enters a season healthy. He has been the best runner in camp and has an excellent chance to begin the season as the starter. He will likely be pushed by Kenny Watson and Rudi Johnson throughout the year, but the pick has considerable upside with limited downside.


• Jerious Norwood, Atl/7 (Value = 99, ADP = 114) in the 10th round or later - He has shown good skill in his limited carries each of the last two seasons averaging 6.2 yards per rushing attempt. Michael Turner was brought in via free agency, but could falter with a bigger workload. Should the door open, Norwood could represent great value in the middle rounds.


• Maurice Morris, Sea/4 (Value = 109, ADP = 131) in the 11th round or later - I am not sold on Juliues Jones and it's looking like teh Seattle coaches are not either. Maurice continues to get the majority of the 1st unit carries and has outplayed Jones in camp. Add his familiarity with the system and a banged up receiving unit and he could be the steal of your draft.


• Leon Washington, NYJ/5 (Value = 121, ADP = 141) in the 12th round or later - Brett Favre is getting all the press, but his addition should open up the running lanes for both Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. Jones wore down last season so could be on a rush count in 2008. For this price, Washington represents all value.

Wide Receivers

The biggest key to having a great wide receiver corps is following the Top 50 plan above and then swooping in and stealing the players that slide unnecessarily in a draft.

Here are the WRs I believe will have exceptional value in the draft:

• Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ/5 (Value = 33, ADP = 53) in the 5th round or later - He gets a big upgrade with the addition of Brett Favre. From where I sit, he has passed up Laveranues Coles as the team's #1 WR.


• Roddy White, Atl/7 (Value = 42, ADP = 61) in the 5th round or later - He finished as the 14th best WR in 2007 and should have better QB play this season.


• Derrick Mason, Bal/10 (Value = 52, ADP = 88) in the 7th round or later - Somebody has to cath the passes and he enters the season as WR1 for the Ravens.


• Nate Burleson, Sea/4 (Value = 58, ADP = 89) in the 7th round or later - Branch isn't fully healed and Bobby Engram will miss the early part of the season. Burleson is the WR1 by default on a team that threw for 4,181 yards and 30 TDs. This is a huge no-brainer.


• Ted Ginn, Mia/4 (Value = 69, ADP = 117) in the 9th round or later - The Dolphins drafted Ginn to be the man. He has struggled with the pro game so far, but has the speed to take routine catches to the house.
• Kevin Walter, Hou/8 (Value = 80, ADP = 156) in the 12th round or later - He has secured the WR2 job in Houston and is flying way below the radar. The Houston passing attack generate 3,925 passing yards in 2007 and looks to have weak RBs again this season. All should make Kevin Walter a very safe and dependable WR this season.


• Mark Clayton, Bal/10 (Value = 89, ADP = 148) in the 12th round or later - Clayton battled multiple injuries in 2007 and never got on track. He has great skills though and should rebound nicely this season.


• Justin Gage, Ten/6 (Value = 94, ADP = 178) in the 13th round or later - As I write this, he is the #1 WR on the Titans. This is ridiculous value.


• Derek Hagan, Mia/4 (Value = 107, ADP = 208) in the 14th round or later. - He has locked down the starting gig oposite of Ted Ginn.

I would target these values later in the draft for added depth:

• Devin Hester, Chi/8 (Value = 110, ADP = 163) in the 12th round or later.
• Antwaan Randle El, Was/10 (Value = 123, ADP = 194) in the 13th round or later.
• Drew Bennett, StL/5 (Value = 119, ADP = 177) in the 13th round or later.
• Chris Henry, Cin/8 (Value = 138, ADP = 224) in the 15th round or later.
• Laurent Robinson, Atl/7 (Value = 142, ADP = 212) in the 15th round or later.

Tight Ends

This is a strange year for tight ends. Antonio Gates generally heads this list, but he is currently injured and it's unknown if he will be able to play in week 1. This has created a logjam of sorts at the top spots with Jason Witten (ADP = 38), Gates (ADP = 50) and Kellen Winslow (ADP = 48) all going around the fourth round. With as deep as the tight ends are this year, I think it would be a huge mistake to target any of the top 3 TEs. In fact, most of the big names at this position should be avoided due to the depth at the position.

Go ahead and scratch off these names:

• Jason Witten
• Antonio Gates
• Kellen Winslow
• Tony Gonzalez
• Chris Cooley
• Dallas Clark
• Jeremy Shockey

All will be taken at a time when it's imperative to stock up key RB and WR talent.

But fear not. There are always bargains at the tight end position late in a draft. In fact once the top 7-8 names come off the board, there is minimal pressure on the TE position the rest of the draft. It's no surprise that since TEs catch a relatively small amount of passes, primarily on short and intermediate routes (again, excluding the top tier guys), there usually isn't a great deal of variance between the fourth-best TE and the 12th best, witness:

• 2007 - 4th (141 points), 12th (79 points) = 62 points difference (3.88 per game)
• 2006 - 4th (113 points), 12th (81 points) = 32 points difference (2.00 per game)
• 2005 - 4th (119 points), 12th (77 points) = 42 points difference (2.63 per game)
• 2004 - 4th (113 points), 12th (69 points) = 44 points difference (2.75 per game)
• 2003 -- 4th (74 points), 12th (65 points) = 9 points difference (0.56 per game)
• 5 YR AVG -- 4th (112 points), 12th (74 points) = 31 points difference (2.38 per game)

So ultimately, once you get past the big TEs, you're really debating over a point or two per week (which is why it is wise to just wait until the later rounds to select a TE).

The tight end that I will be targeting in most of my drafts this year is Owen Daniels, Hou/8 (Value = 106, ADP = 108) in the 9th round or later. It's not a sexy pick, but I expect he will be solid all year long. He caught 63 passes last season and just needs to increase his TDs to be a very good player.

Here are the other TEs that I believe will have exceptional value in the draft:

• Vernon Davis, SF (Value = 97, ADP = 99) in the 9th round or better - Mike Martz has committed to getting Davis the ball deep down field. If everything goes right, he could be a top 3 tight end for a fraction of the cost this year.
• Zach Miller, Oak/5 (Value = 148, ADP = 153) in the 13th round or better - This kid has great skills and should be used a lot as a dump off from JaMarcus Russell. Look for him to emerge in 2008.

Place Kickers

Who cares right? Well...kind of right. Definitely nothing you should even look at until round 13 of your draft. But all drafts are different. In leagues that go after kickers early, just wait. You can get an adequate PK three rounds after every other owner has their first.

In leagues that sluff this position until real late, look towards the top of the kicker list in round 14. If your top kicker is available then draft him. Suffice it to say that in a lot of leagues now, people wait too long to take their kickers. As a rule of thumb, you can generally maximize kicker value by taking the fifth to eighth kicker off the board. In waiver wire friendly leagues (most), don't be afraid to draft just one kicker and add others as necessary during the season to cover the bye weeks and/or exploit matchups.

I am targeting these value guys should kickers go too early:

• Josh Scobee, Jac/7 (Value = 170, ADP = 200) in the 16th round or later.
• Jeff Reed, Pit/6 (Value = 200, ADP > 225) in the 18th round or later.

Defenses

Scoring systems generally come into play and define when defenses are taken. I suggest you wait until round 13 to assess what to do about this position. If San Diego, Minnesota or New England are still on the board, grab them. If these teams are gone though, I would wait until late in the draft and implement Chase Stuart's suggested combo of the Buffalo Bills and New Orleans Saints. Both can be selected very late in the draft.

If roster spots are hard to come by, I would target these value defenses late in the draft:

• Washington (Value = 187, ADP = 223) in the 17th round or later
• Buffalo (Value = 202, ADP = 202) in the 18th round or later
• Oakland (Value = 207, ADP = 228) in the 18th round or later

Because owners rank defenses so differently, you can generally get good value just by waiting for the value to emerge.

Another winning strategy to deploy after the draft for defenses is simply to look two games ahead in the waiver process. Most teams will have one or two defenses meaning that half of the defenses are available as free agent pick ups each week. By looking two to three weeks ahead at who will be playing Atlanta, Miami, Oakland, Kansas City and Chicago, you likely can find a cheap defense that should perform well against subpar offenses. Drop this defense after their "quality game" so that you can continue to pick up other defenses that will have good weeks. Because of this strategy, I advise you to draft just one quality defense and look to play matchups the rest of the way. Every year two or three defenses are predicted to be terrible but end up playing great.

In Summary

1. Use the Top 50 List to grab as much "core" talent as possible


2. Assess your strengths and weaknesses after the Top 50 picks are gone. Look to fill in your roster as well as adding more RB and WR depth should significant value be present.


3. At the end of 8 rounds, you should have 1 QB or TE, 3 RBs and 4 WRs


4. QB value is available throughout the draft so just wait until it emerges. Look to grab your first QB after 8 or 9 have been taken.


5. Stockpile value wide receivers. Some will bust, but others will help you win your league. In this format, allocate no less than 8-9 roster spots for wide receivers.


6. Wait on TE and target Owen Daniels in the 9th round.


7. Wait on defense, but don't be afraid to grab the first or second one in round 13. If defenses go earlier than normal, wait for 6-8 defenses to be picked before you take your first. Do not add a second defense unless you can implement Stuart's DTBC of Buffalo and New Orleans. Work the waiver wire weeks ahead of great matchups for value.


8. Wait on kicker, but don't be afraid to grab the first or second on your list in round 14. If kickers go early, take the fifth to eighth kicker off the board.

Well that is it folks. Hope you all do well in your coming drafts. Remember, the key is not to just follow the Top 200 list but to see where it differs substantially from average drafts. This is how you get value with every pick. And value is how you build winning fantasy teams.

Good luck to everyone in the WCOFF. Hope the balls all bounce your way.