The Perfect Draft - 14-team League

  Posted 8/27 by David Dodds, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

This is the fourth of a five-part series.

Aaaah....The Perfect Draft. We have all dreamt of having it. Some of us have experienced it. And for those that have....we want it again and again. And why not? You surely did not subscribe to this website to be average. You want to dominate. You want to have such a good roster that others salivate over who you have. You want them all to come to you when discussing trades. And in this article I am going to break down how to have that perfect draft.

Let's start with the two basic principles of Value Based Drafting (VBD). I will expound on them as we go through this.

All Players Have Value

Don't love anyone. Don't hate anyone. Get players that will significantly outperform their draft position and you will build a winning team.

Understand What the Average Guy Thinks

You may believe someone will be the 4th best WR, but if everybody else does not then you need to wait to maximize value.

If you don't follow these principles, you will not have a perfect draft. If you...believe rookie WRs are always bad...that drafting anyone over 30 is a sure sign he will get injured, etc then you will not have the perfect draft. Throw away the biases. Let value guide your team. Let others succumb to prejudices and generalities. You are here to win your league. And you do that by getting value every single round.

So what is value then? Value Based Drafting (VBD) has shown us that we can compare unlike positions for comparative value. The cornerstone of VBD starts with solid projections. And these projections can be manipulated to form Top 200+ lists. I have provided the Footballguys' Top 220 list here that has been sorted by position. I have highlighted favorable differences in green to indicate players that may be bargains on draft day.

Let's have the perfect 14-team draft.

The goal is to get you the best possible team and to make sure you don't overpay for players that can still be had a few rounds later. What I look for are players that I project significantly better than where they are being drafted. The positional analysis tracks to my projections.

This article assumes a 14 team league using scoring that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Def and 1 PK. It also assumes this scoring criteria: 1 point per 20 yards passing, 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 4 points per passing TD, 6 points per rushing/receiving TD, -1 points for interceptions.

In a 12 team draft, there is pressure to grab the quality RBs before they are gone. That pressure is magnified in a 14 team draft. This point is important, because failure to lock up solid RBs within the first few rounds of the draft will likley cost you a chance at competing for the title.

Instead of concentrating on things by position, I believe the correct approach is to grab the best player available until the Top 50 are off the board. With some luck and creating the right Top 50 list, you are hopeful to still be drafting from this list when you complete the 5th round (70 picks). If you are still using this list in the 7th round, grab a beer and call the engraver during the draft.

Creating the Perfect 50 List for 14-Team Leagues. Because ADP is a crucial barometer on when players will get drafted, I believe it's important to merge the Footballguys Top 200 with ADP to create a single Top 50 draft list. Here is how I create this list.

• For players that have a value lower than ADP, use the average of the two numbers.
  
• For players that have a value higher than ADP, use the value number.
  

Example: Player A has a value of 13 and an ADP of 21. His "drafting" value would be 17. (13 + 21)/2. Conversely, if Player has a value of 21 and an ADP of 13, his "drafting" value would be 21.

Doing this for the Top 250 list yields these Top 50 players (ranked from 1st to 50). *** Note this is a generic list. You can get a tailored list by entering your scoring criteria into the VBD or Draft Dominator applications:

Note in the 10-team league, this list was the draft guide. In a 14-team league, you need to make a few more adjustments. And these adjustments have to do with position scarcity at the RB and WR positions (WR's won't dry up, but in larger leagues the talent level will drop immensely). The adjustments will be made at all non RB and WR positions (QBs and TEs in the above list since no kickers or defenses cracked the top 50). Each non-RB/WR will have their rank adjusted 30% higher (For Example: Antonio Gates sits at #24 overall in the above list. In the revised list, his rank value will be adjusted to 31.2). This is done because although a QB or TE can represent value in the early rounds, it comes at an extreme price to your RB and WR core. And because this talent will dry up, you can't make back that value at RB/WR easily. You can easily in the positions that are started just once (QB, TE, Def and PK).

I have enclosed the reranked players below. This is the drafting top 50 list for a 14-team league. Note however that 3 players dropped off of the list when the 30% was added to their rank:

The First 50 Players:

Essentially you are just looking to grab the best player available until this list is exhausted. But use some common sense while you do this. You must take at least one RB within the first three rounds of the draft (no exceptions). Additionally limit yourself to at most one QB or TE from this list. If you draft a QB because he represents value, then you must wait and get a TE late (drafted after the top 50 is depleted). Conversely if you draft a TE early, then you must wait and get a QB late.

I would pay little to no attention to bye weeks during this phase. You have plenty of time to adjust after the Top 50 players are gone.

After the Top 50 Players are Taken - Assessment / Building Your Core Phase

The transition from the Top 50 to rounding out your team based on need is a critical one. Your anlysis here can instantly turn a good draft into a great one. Here are the questions you should be asking yourself to determine your weaknesses:

• How many backs did you secure? The average owner should have 1.6. Do you have at least two? Is this a position of strength for your team? If the answer is no, this should be your prime objective


• Did you draft a QB or TE yet? If so consider yourself done at this position until very late in the draft. If you have not drafted these positions yet, do not panic. Good ones will be available late in your 14-team draft.


• Assess your bye week situation. If two or more of your first four players are off on the same bye week, I will usually sacrifice that week to be strong in every other week. If that is not the case, then I look to patch the holes with complimentary players that could have big weeks during these rough spots. Teams lining up against Houston, Tennessee, Cleveland and Atlanta should all yield good results during these weeks.

As an example, Let's say you landed this team after 4 rounds (from the 6th position):

• 6. RB Steven Jackson, StL/5
• 23. RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac/7
• 34. WR Plaxico Burress, NYG/4
• 51. WR Brandon Marshall, Den/8

This is generally where you want to be. You have no bye week issues. You have two solid backs and two receivers.

So in this example your next steps would be:

• Grab another starting running back in the next two rounds (before they dry up).
• Add at least one WR in the next three rounds.
• Add your starting QB in the next four rounds.
• Add your starting TE in the next four rounds.

Fast-forwarding this roster, you should have 1 QB, 3 RBs, 3 WRs and 1 TE after 8 rounds.

Here is another example (drafting from the 11th position):

• 11. Clinton Portis, Was/10
• 18. Braylon Edwards, Cle/5
• 39. Calvin Johnson, Det/4
• 46. Roy Williams, Det/4

Assessing where you are at:

• You have a strong WR core with three top receivers. This is not a position of need anymore so you should be looking elsewhere the next 4 rounds.
• You have just one RB. This should be your top priority since you need to start 2 each week and the good ones will dry up fast. Look to grab a RB in the next round and another in rounds 4-8.
• You do not have a QB. This should be addressed within the next four rounds.
• You do not have a TE. This should be addressed within the next four rounds.
• You have two players on week 4 bye. I would not spend too much effort worrying about this. It's not always advantageous to spread out byes. Sometimes you field a stronger team by actually having a lot of your roster off the same week. So just let the draft happen for a bit before deciding a bye week course.

Fast-forwarding this roster, you should have 1 QB, 3 RBs, 3 WRs and 1 TE after 8 rounds.

See the theme here? That's right.

The Perfect 14-Team Draft should have 1 QB, 3 RBs, 3 WRs and 1 TE after 8 rounds.

Moving to Fill Positional Needs

Quarterbacks

The plan is simple at the quarterback position this year. Unless you grab a top star at value from the Top 50 list above, wait until 8 or 9 quarterbacks are drafted before taking your first. In a 14 team league this strategy will plop you firmly into the sweet spot of quarterback value.

Here are the quality fantasy QBs that I expect should be available after you have finished drafting players from your top 50 list:

• Jay Cutler, Den/8 (Value = 63rd best player, ADP = 77th) in the 6th round or later - Jay has an elite, but immature receiver in Brandon Marshall (who will unfortunately be forced to sit out the first 2 games of the season). But if the preseason is any indication, Marshall should pickup where he left off last year once he returns from suspension. And that's playing catch with Jay Cutler. In fact the two are rooming together during Marshall's suspension which should aid in the timing when he returns. Cutler, in his 2nd year, set career highs across the board before finishing with 3,497 passing yards and 20 TDs. He also quietly ran for 205 yards and a score on 44 carries. These stats were good enough to rank as the 11th best QB in 2007. The Denver running game this season isn't going to scare defenses (Travis Henry released, Selvin Young unproven, Pittman and Torain injured, etc). Denver has seen it's rushing carries erode each of the last three years (542 in 2005, 488 in 2006, and just 429 in 2007) and I see nothing to dissuade me from this changing this year. I also do not have much confidence that this team will be a winning team. And playing from behind generally results in even more pass plays during the season.


• David Garrard, Jac/7 (Value = 76th best player, ADP = 89th) in the 7th round or later - In just 12 games, Garrard ranked as the 16th best QB in 2007. He is the unquestioned starter on a team that is on the rise. Including playoff games, Garrard scored over 16 fantasy points in all but two of his games (12 of 14). Contrast that with Eli Manning who managed to score 16+ fantasy points in just 9 of his 20 games last season. Let others target Eli Manning around pick 82. You can pick up Garrard at a similar cost and have a player who you can count on week in and out.


• Matt Schaub, Hou/8 (Value = 86th best player, ADP = 106th) in the 8th round or later - Houston QBs threw for 3,925 yards and 24 TDs. Had one QB put up all those stats, he would likely be selected as a top 5 quarterback this season. Schaub got hurt last year and also was derailed a bit when he lost his go-to wide receiver in Andre Johnson. I expect Matt to take the next big step in his career as he hucks the rock around a lot in 2008. The Texan's backs scare no one (Ahman Green is injured again, no other team in the league wanted Chris Brown, Steve Slaton is a rookie that most teams passed on, etc). The Texans have averaged just 428 rush attempts over the last 3 years (with a low of 417 in 2007). With hasbeens and unproven players leading the way at running back, I think it's safe to say that 2008 will be another year of a lot of passing.

I would target these values later in the draft for added depth:

• Vince Young, Ten/6 (Value= 105th best player, ADP = 129th) in the 9th round or later.
• Jason Campbell, Was/10 (Value = 118th best player, ADP = 136th) in the 10th round or later.
• Kurt Warner, Ari/7 (Value= 140th best player, ADP = 184th) in the 12th round or later.

Running Backs

In most leagues, running backs are golden. Yes they can run and catch, but the real reason they are golden is that there simply are not enough of them to go around. But if you followed the Top 50 plan from above, you should have a nice stable of backs on your roster.

But two or three quality backs don't make a powerhouse fantasy roster...Having depth at RB does.

Here are other situation that I think represent value this year (outside of the Top 50 picks):

• Ricky Williams, Mia/4 (Value = 69, ADP = 85) in the 6th round or later - Ronnie Brown isn't 100% and has been outplayed to date by Ricky. It usually takes 16+ months to recover from ACL surgery so Ricky has a real shot to hold off Brown for the majority of the season (provided he can stay healthy himself).


• Jerious Norwood, Atl/7 (Value = 94, ADP = 119) in the 9th round or later - He has shown good skill in his limited carries each of the last two seasons averaging 6.2 yards per rushing attempt. Michael Turner was brought in via free agency, but could falter with a bigger workload. Should the door open, Norwood could represent great value in the middle rounds.


• Chris Perry, Cin/8 (Value = 75, ADP = 134) in the 9th round or later - Don't look now, but Rudi Johnson just got old in a hurry. Perry has been running with the first unit and finally enters a season healthy. He has been the best runner in camp and has an excellent chance to begin the season as the starter. He will likely be pushed by Kenny Watson and Rudi Johnson throughout the year, but the pick has considerable upside with limited downside.


• Maurice Morris, Sea/4 (Value = 87, ADP = 142) in the 10th round or later - I am not sold on Juliues Jones and it's looking like teh Seattle coaches are not either. Maurice continues to get the majority of the 1st unit carries and has outplayed Jones in camp. Add his familiarity with the system and a banged up receiving unit and he could be the steal of your draft.


• Leon Washington, NYJ/5 (Value = 117, ADP = 160) in the 11th round or later - Brett Favre is getting all the press, but his addition should open up the running lanes for both Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. Jones wore down last season so could be on a rush count in 2008. For this price, Washington represents all value.

Wide Receivers

The biggest key to having a great wide receiver corps is following the Top 50 plan above and then swooping in and stealing the players that slide unnecessarily in a draft.

Here are the WRs I believe will have exceptional value in the draft:

• Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ/5 (Value = 44, ADP = 58) in the 5th round or later - He gets a big upgrade with the addition of Brett Favre. From where I sit, he has passed up Laveranues Coles as the team's #1 WR.


• Roddy White, Atl/7 (Value = 57, ADP = 70) in the 6th round or later - He finished as the 14th best WR in 2007 and should have better QB play this season.


• Nate Burleson, Sea/4 (Value = 73, ADP = 86) in the 7th round or later - Branch isn't fully healed and Bobby Engram will miss the early part of the season. Burleson is the WR1 by default on a team that threw for 4,181 yards and 30 TDs. This is a huge no-brainer.


• Derrick Mason, Bal/10 (Value = 85, ADP = 101) in the 8th round or later - Somebody has to cath the passes and he enters the season as WR1 for the Ravens.


• Ted Ginn, Mia/4 (Value = 89, ADP = 128) in the 9th round or later - The Dolphins drafted Ginn to be the man. He has struggled with the pro game so far, but has the speed to take routine catches to the house.
• Kevin Walter, Hou/8 (Value = 104, ADP = 174) in the 10th round or later - He has secured the WR2 job in Houston and is flying way below the radar. The Houston passing attack generate 3,925 passing yards in 2007 and looks to have weak RBs again this season. All should make Kevin Walter a very safe and dependable WR this season.


• Mark Clayton, Bal/10 (Value = 115, ADP = 168) in the 10th round or later - Clayton battled multiple injuries in 2007 and never got on track. He has great skills though and should rebound nicely this season.


• Justin Gage, Ten/6 (Value = 120, ADP = 181) in the 11th round or later - As I write this, he is the #1 WR on the Titans. This is ridiculous value.

I would target these values later in the draft for added depth:

• Devin Hester, Chi/8 (Value = 121, ADP = 148) in the 11th round or later.
• Derek Hagan, Mia/4 (Value = 127, ADP = >220) in the 13th round or later.
• Antwaan Randle El, Was/10 (Value = 133, ADP = 202) in the 13th round or later.
• Drew Bennett, StL/5 (Value = 133, ADP = 202) in the 13th round or later.
• Chris Henry, Cin/8 (Value = 149, ADP = 200) in the 14th round or later.
• Laurent Robinson, Atl/7 (Value = 164, ADP = >220) in the 15th round or later.

Tight Ends

This is a strange year for tight ends. Antonio Gates generally heads this list, but he is currently injured and it's unknown if he will be able to play in week 1. This has created a logjam of sorts at the top spots with Jason Witten (ADP = 43), Gates (ADP = 49) and Kellen Winslow (ADP = 51) and all going in the fourth round. With as deep as the tight ends are this year, I think it would be a huge mistake to target any of the top 3 TEs. In fact, most of the big names at this position should be avoided due to the depth at the position.

Go ahead and scratch off these names:

• Jason Witten
• Antonio Gates
• Kellen Winslow
• Tony Gonzalez
• Chris Cooley
• Dallas Clark
• Jeremy Shockey

All will be taken at a time when it's imperative to stock up key RB and WR talent.

But fear not. There are always bargains at the tight end position late in a draft. In fact once the top 7-8 names come off the board, there is minimal pressure on the TE position the rest of the draft. It's no surprise that since TEs catch a relatively small amount of passes, primarily on short and intermediate routes (again, excluding the top tier guys), there usually isn't a great deal of variance between the fourth-best TE and the 12th best, witness:

• 2007 - 4th (141 points), 12th (79 points) = 62 points difference (3.88 per game)
• 2006 - 4th (113 points), 12th (81 points) = 32 points difference (2.00 per game)
• 2005 - 4th (119 points), 12th (77 points) = 42 points difference (2.63 per game)
• 2004 - 4th (113 points), 12th (69 points) = 44 points difference (2.75 per game)
• 2003 -- 4th (74 points), 12th (65 points) = 9 points difference (0.56 per game)
• 5 YR AVG -- 4th (112 points), 12th (74 points) = 31 points difference (2.38 per game)

So ultimately, once you get past the big TEs, you're really debating over a point or two per week (which is why it is wise to just wait until the later rounds to select a TE).

The tight end that I will be targeting in most of my drafts this year is Owen Daniels, Hou/8 (Value = 88, ADP = 118) in the 8th round or later. It's not a sexy pick, but I expect he will be solid all year long. He caught 63 passes last season and just needs to increase his TDs to be a very good player.

Here are the other TEs that I believe will have exceptional value in the draft:

• Vernon Davis, SF (Value = 77, ADP = 95) in the 7th round or better - Mike Martz has committed to getting Davis the ball deep down field. If everything goes right, he could be a top 3 tight end for a fraction of the cost this year.
• Zach Miller, Oak/5 (Value = 127, ADP = 171) in the 14th round or better - This kid has great skills and should be used a lot as a dump off from JaMarcus Russell. Look for him to emerge in 2008.

Place Kickers

Who cares right? Well...kind of right. Definitely nothing you should even look at until round 13 of your draft. But all drafts are different. In leagues that go after kickers early, just wait. You can get an adequate PK three rounds after every other owner has their first.

In leagues that sluff this position until real late, look towards the top of the kicker list in round 13. If your top kicker is available then draft him. Suffice it to say that in a lot of leagues now, people wait too long to take their kickers. As a rule of thumb, you can generally maximize kicker value by taking the fifth to eighth kicker off the board. In waiver wire friendly leagues (most), don't be afraid to draft just one kicker and add others as necessary during the season to cover the bye weeks and/or exploit matchups.

I am targeting these value guys should kickers go too early:

• Josh Scobee, Jac/7 (Value = 185, ADP = 205) in the 15th round or later.
• Jeff Reed, Pit/6 (Value = 204, ADP > 220) in the 17th round or later.

Defenses

Scoring systems generally come into play and define when defenses are taken. I suggest you wait until round 12 to assess what to do about this position. If San Diego, Minnesota or New England are still on the board, grab them. If these teams are gone though, I would wait until late in the draft and implement Chase Stuart's suggested combo of the Buffalo Bills and New Orleans Saints. Both can be selected very late in the draft.

If roster spots are hard to come by, I would target these value defenses late in the draft:

• Oakland (Value = 190, ADP > 220) in the 16th round or later
• Buffalo (Value = 187, ADP = 204) in the 16th round or later

Because owners rank defenses so differently, you can generally get good value just by waiting for the value to emerge.

Another winning strategy to deploy after the draft for defenses is simply to look two games ahead in the waiver process. Most teams will have one or two defenses meaning that half of the defenses are available as free agent pick ups each week. By looking two to three weeks ahead at who will be playing Atlanta, Miami, Oakland, Kansas City and Chicago, you likely can find a cheap defense that should perform well against subpar offenses. Drop this defense after their "quality game" so that you can continue to pick up other defenses that will have good weeks. Because of this strategy, I advise you to draft just one quality defense and look to play matchups the rest of the way. Every year two or three defenses are predicted to be terrible but end up playing great.

In Summary

1. Use the Top 50 List to grab as much "core" talent as possible


2. Assess your strengths and weaknesses after the Top 50 picks are gone. Look to fill in your roster as well as adding more RB and WR depth should significant value be present.


3. QB value is available throughout the draft so just wait until it emerges. Look to grab your first QB after 8 or 9 have been taken.


4. Stockpile value wide receivers. Some will bust, but others will help you win your league. In start 3 WR leagues, allocate 8 roster spots for wide receivers.


5. Wait on TE and target Owen Daniels in the 8th round.


6. Wait on defense, but don't be afraid to grab the first or second one in round 12. If defenses go earlier than normal, wait for 6-8 defenses to be picked before you take your first. Do not add a second defense. Work the waiver wire weeks ahead of great matchups for value.


7. Wait on kicker, but don't be afraid to grab the first or second on your list in round 13. If kickers go early, take the fifth to eighth kicker off the board.

Well that is it folks. Hope you all do well in your coming drafts. Remember, the key is not to just follow the Top 200 list but to see where it differs substantially from average drafts. This is how you get value with every pick. And value is how you build winning fantasy teams.