The Perfect Draft - 12-team League

  Updated 8/21 by David Dodds, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

This is the first of a five-part series. The other versions will be 10-team, 14-team, Auction and WCOFF (PPR) formats.

I started penning this article in 2002 to put my predraft thoughts to paper. Like most things in life, I find I do my best when I plan to succeed. This article is my attempt at that. I work hard at doing projections every year. At Footballguys, we also put together the most comprehensive ADP lists (from 5+ sources). So the information about value is certainly readily available. The trick to having a perfect draft though is to anticipate those "pockets of value" and build your team so that you get the lion's share of these guys.

There is not one way to have a perfect draft. In fact, the biggest criticism I often get is that I am willing to wait on QB and/or TE in a lot of drafts. Many drafters show me teams where they grab a guy like Romo early and then knock the rest of the draft out of the park. That's definitely possible. And against weak competition, it is also the preferred gameplan.

This article assumes fairly educated drafters. You need to decide whether your league is full of sharks, guppies or a combination of both. Count the number of Footballguys subscriptions and compare that to the number of guys crossing off players from their magazine cheatsheet to get a feel for this if you really are unsure. I state this here, because against softer competition the shark move is to grab the quality QBs and TEs too. You should do this because it's nearly assured you will also get many great players to slide to you at RB and WR. Against great competition, reaching for a player at the wrong time can quickly dismantle your draft and leave you missing the key "pockets of value" that can help your chances at winning.

Before we can have the "Perfect Draft", let's define our measure of success. After the draft, your team should have these qualities:

1. Against multiple projection sets, your team always grades out as one of the best teams
2. You secured a great number of players that will outperform their draft position.
3. You have quality depth (in the right places) to allow for postdraft trades.
4. The majority of owners recognize that you have a team that should easily reach the playoffs.

These aren't absolutes, but I list them here so we know what we are trying to build.

Let's start with the two basic principles of Value Based Drafting (VBD). I will expound on them as we go through this.

• All Players Have Value
  Don't love anyone. Don't hate anyone. Get players that will significantly outperform their draft position and you will build a winning team.


• Understand What the Average Guy Thinks
  You may believe someone will be the 10th best WR, but if everybody else does not then you need to wait to maximize value.

If you don't follow these principles, you will not have a perfect draft. If you believe rookie WRs are always bad or drafting anyone over 30 is too big of an injury risk, then you will not have the perfect draft. Throw away the biases. Let value guide your draft. Let others succumb to prejudices and generalities. You are here to win your league. And you do that by getting value with every pick.

How do we define value? Value Based Drafting (VBD) has shown us that we can compare unlike positions for comparative value. The cornerstone of VBD starts with solid projections. And these projections can be manipulated to form Top 200+ lists. I have provided my own Top 220 list at the end of this article (based on my projections) that has been sorted by position. I have highlighted favorable differences in green to indicate players that may be bargains on draft day.

Let's have the perfect draft.

The goal is to get you the best possible team and to make sure you don't overpay for players that can still be had a few rounds later. What I look for are players that I project significantly better than where they are being drafted. The positional analysis tracks to my projections.

This article assumes a 12 team league using scoring that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Def and 1 PK. Fantasy points are calculated as follows:

• Passing TDs = 4 points
• Interceptions = -1 points
• Rushing/receiving TDs = 6 points
• Passing yardage = 0.05 pts per yard (1 pt per 20 yards)
• Rushing/receiving yardage = 0.10 pts per yard (1 pt per 10 yards)

Quarterbacks

With history as our guide, we know the top QBs are almost always drafted too early. And this makes sense. The QB position generally scores the most points so fantasy players want a good one. But since most leagues only require one starting QB there is little pressure on the remaining QBs after the first six or seven are gone.

Grabbing quarterbacks early seems to be very much in vogue this year after Tom Brady's 2007 historical season. Most owners that had Tom Brady made the playoffs last year regardless of the other players they took and generally independent of scoring systems. He was that much better than everyone else at the position.

Going into 2008, Brady has all the weapons back and a coach likely still wanting to punish every other team on the field by scoring early and often. If you think Brady will throw for 40+ TDs, he has to be high on your draft board. And by high, I mean top 6 high. I personally expect him to throw about 40 TDs and because of this he is the number 5 player on my Top 200 list. But history says predicting 40+ TDs for a QB is bordering on insanity. It's likely a losing proposition despite how great Brady was last year. Weighing this into things and knowing there are sweet spots to draft quality QBs at a severe discount later points me to passing on Brady unless he is still there at pick 10 or later.

The other top QBs that people like are going way too early for my liking. Just scratch off
Peyton Manning (ADP = 11), Tony Romo (ADP = 17), Drew Brees (ADP = 26), Carson Palmer (ADP = 34), Ben Roethlisberger (ADP = 42) and Derek Anderson (ADP = 48) from your cheatsheets. Someone will overpay for every one of these players in virtually every league across America.

Don't be that owner. If you do, you will not have the perfect draft. Resist the temptation and let others grab these stars. How can I say that with such conviction? Because draft after draft, I have seen the same thing happen. People overpay for the top quarterbacks, and then a lull takes place before a mad rush ensues for the quality quarterbacks left. The guys you need are in this second group and by waiting you will secure the running back and wide receiver talent needed to field a dominate team.

Quarterback Sweet Spot #1

I see these three players in this group:

• Matt Schaub (ADP = 117)
• Jay Cutler (ADP = 79)
• David Garrard (ADP = 87).

Let's look deeper into these players:

• Matt Schaub, Hou (Value = 73, ADP = 117) - Houston QBs threw for 3,925 yards and 24 TDs. Had one QB put up all those stats, he would likely be selected as a top 5 quarterback this season. Schaub got hurt last year and also was derailed a bit when he lost his go-to wide receiver in Andre Johnson. I expect Matt to take the next big step in his career as he hucks the rock around a lot in 2008. The Texan's backs scare no one (Ahman Green is injured again, no other team in the league wanted Chris Brown, Steve Slaton is a rookie that most teams passed on, etc). The Texans have averaged just 428 rush attempts over the last 3 years (with a low of 417 in 2007). With hasbeens and unproven players leading the way at running back, I think it's safe to say that 2008 will be another year of a lot of passing.


• Jay Cutler, Den (Value = 65, ADP = 79) - Cutler has become a very capable QB in just 2 years and has an elite WR in Brandon Marshall. Marshall will miss at least the first 2 NFL games (due to a suspension from Goodell), but has been very impressive in camp this season. Combined with a suspect running game, it's easy to see Cutler (and the passing game) having an expanded role this season.


• David Garrard, Jac (Value = 73, ADP = 87) - In just 12 games, Garrard ranked as the 16th best QB in 2007. He is the unquestioned starter on a team that is on the rise. Including playoff games, Garrard scored over 16 fantasy points in all but two of his games (12 of 14). Contrast that with Eli Manning who managed to score 16+ fantasy points in just 9 of his 20 games last season. Let others target Eli Manning around pick 82. You can pick up Garrard at a similar cost and have a player who you can count on week in and out.

Your goal in drafts this year is try and secure at least one quarterback from this sweet spot. And here is how you do that. Wait until three or four of the following players get selected among this group:

• Donovan McNabb (ADP = 56)
• Matt Hasselbeck (ADP = 64)
• Brett Favre (ADP = 79)
• Jay Cutler (ADP = 81)
• Eli Manning (ADP = 83)
• Marc Bulger (ADP = 84)
• David Garrard (ADP = 90)

Those are your triggers. When three are off the board, target QB with your next selection. In most leagues this first pick should be around the end of the 7th round (or early eighth round). Leagues vary though so pay more attention to the triggers than the actual round.

Quarterback Sweet Spot #2

A second spot emerges after most teams have selected their quarterback. This sweet spot is created because the owners that selected the early QB stars like Brady, Manning, Romo, etc now are scrambling to add RB and WRs in these rounds.

This second sweet spot includes these players

• Vince Young (ADP = 132)
• Jon Kitna (ADP = 130)
• Jason Campbell (ADP = 129)

Let's look at their situations more closely:

• Vince Young, Ten (Value = 99, ADP = 130) in the 10th round or later - He runs for too many yards to discount him too much in my opinion. He grades out as QB 13 and I have him throwing just 2,734 yards and 15 TDs. Because of his legs, he can easily add 500 yards and 4-5 scores on the ground if healthy. He is no danger of losing his starting spot and is a very high upside pick (with minimal downside) in my opinion.


• Jon Kitna, Det (Value = 112, ADP = 130) in the 11th round or later - He is the unquestioned starter on a team that won't be able to run the ball in a division known for stopping teams that try and run the ball (Minnesota and Chicago defenses). He also has a pair of receivers in Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams that will give defenses fits. Gone is pass-happy Mike Martz, but that might actually be a blessing as the long plays were difficult to execute with an average offensive line. From all camp observations, Calvin Johnson appears to be on a mission. You could do worse than having his QB in 2008.


• Jason Campbell, Was (Value = 115, ADP = 131) in the 11th round or later - Sometimes it's all about the schedule. And the Redskins have a dream schedule in 2008 playing a lot of opponents that are simply horrible at defending the pass. The Redskins also bolstered their passing attack in 2008 by adding Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly and Fred Davis through the NFL draft. Make no mistake about it. Jason Campbell will finally have the weapons he needs and will benefit from a schedule that should ensure success. In just thirteen games in 2007, Campbell finished as the 18th best QB. With more weapons and an easier schedule, Campbell is flying way below the radar this season.

A deep sleeper at quarterback is J.T. O'Sullivan, SF. He generally goes undrafted, but looks like he will get first crack to be the 49ers QB this season. He should benefit from newly hired offensive coordinator Mike Martz. It's no secret Mike likes to throw the ball a lot and he has made very average quarterbacks look great running his schemes. All reports are that Shaun Hill can't digest the complex Martz playbook and that J.T. is running the offense better than Smith right now. So if you can afford a late roster spot, J.T. O' Sullivan might be worth stashing away this season.

Running Backs

The league is changing in front of our eyes. The days of most teams having a power-back to shoulder 75-80% of the load have been replaced with running back by committees (RBBC). The NFL is a copycat league and general managers consistently tweak their teams when another has success with a certain formula. So when some of the most dominant teams in the league are using RBBC, we have something more than a coincidence. We have a blueprint that other teams are likely to follow going forward.

In years past, the goal was to try and lock up RBs with your first two to three selections. There were not enough RBs to go around so hoarding these backs was the shark move. It forced other owners to reach in the middle rounds for players that would rarely yield production unless the starter was injured or benched. But with so many teams running RBBC these days, supply on the second, third and fourth tier backs has actually increased.

Instead of risking your second and third picks on "lesser backs" mired in RBBCs, I believe you will construct your best fantasy roster by selecting your RB1 starter in the first round and then move on to the elite WRs (that do not come with question marks). In my opinion, drafting RBs for value in rounds 4 through 8 should yield the optimal team.

Here are the other RBs that I would target for value:

• Brandon Jacobs, NYG (Value = 18, ADP = 30) in the 3rd round or later - I am not buying that this will be a RBBC situation with the Giants. I expect Jacobs (if he can healthy with his brusining running style) to get the bulk of the carries. His TDs were low last year, but that does not look like it will be the norm as he is very skilled near the goal line.


• Edgerrin James, Ari (Value = 39, ADP = 47) in the 4th round or later - James has minimal competition for carries in Arizona so he should easily surpass his draft position. He finished as the 10th best fantasy back last year and should put up similar numbers in 2008.


• Darren McFadden, Oak (Value = 42, ADP = 46) in the mid 4th round or later - He is wowing everyone in camp and could have a giant role within the Oakland offense. He will split carries with Fargas early in the season limiting his upside, but should be active in the passing game.


• Selvin Young, Den (Value = 46, ADP = 63) in the 5th round or later - Denver's RBs are falling like flies so Selvin Young will get a long look this season to be the guy running in the successful zone-blocking schemes.


• Matt Forte, Chi (Value = 51, ADP = 67) in the 6th round or later - The Bears cut Cedric Benson which leaves Forte in the front to grab the top RB spot. He has looked solid in camp and I expect him to hold off Kevin Jones and the other Adrian Peterson pretty easily. His downside is that every team will load up the box and dare Kyle Orton to beat them through the air.


• Ricky Williams, Mia (Value = 61, ADP = 102) in the 7th round or later - Ronnie Brown isn't 100% and has been outplayed to date by Ricky. It usually takes 16+ months to recover from ACL surgery so Ricky has a real shot to hold off Brown for the majority of the season (provided he can stay healthy himself).


• DeAngelo Williams, Car (Value = 68, ADP = 82) in the 7th round or later - The team drafted Jonathan Stewart this year to be the guy, but so far it's been mostly DeAngelo wowing people in camp. I still expect a RBBC in Carolina, but I also expect this team to run a lot in 2008. At this price, this pick represents a lot of upside.


• Jerious Norwood, Atl (Value = 87, ADP = 114) in the 9th round or later - He has shown good skill in his limited carries each of the last two seasons averaging 6.2 yards per rushing attempt. Michael Turner was brought in via free agency, but could falter with a bigger workload. Should the door open, Norwood could represent great value in the middle rounds.


• Chris Perry, Cin (Value = 123, ADP = 175) in the 12th round or later - Don't look now, but Rudi Johnson just got old in a hurry. Perry has been running with the first unit and finally enters a season healthy. He has been the best runner in camp and has an excellent chance to begin the season as the starter. He will likely be pushed by Kenny Watson and Rudi Johnson throughout the year, but the pick has considerable upside with limited downside.


• Steve Slaton, Hou (Value = 145, ADP = 199) in the 14th round or later - I though Ahman Green was done last year so obviously I still think that going into 2008. Of all the backs on the Texan's roster, Slaton excites me the most. All he needs is the opportunity.
• Fred Jackson, Buf (Value = 162, ADP = 212) in the 17th round or later - He showed good skill last year when given the opportunity. It would likely take a Marshawn Lynch injury for him to get significant playing time, but at this price it's worth the gamble.

Wide Receivers

The biggest key to having a great wide receiver corps is implementing the QB and RB strategies from steps one and two above. By waiting at QB until round seven or later and grabbing an elite RB in round one, you position yourself to nab the top talent at wide receiver in rounds two through six. At the end of round six, you should have 2-3 RBs and 3-4 WRs. By the end of the draft, you should have 7 to 10 WRs on your squad. That may seem excessive, but some of these players will likely bust and depth at WR allows you maximum flexibility to trade during the season.

Although a team constructed like this may look slightly weak at RB2, it will provide you with a powerhouse weekly roster by locking down great WR talent. This will allow you to draft for value the entire draft and stockpile talent that likely can be used to trade for a RB that breaks out this season. Remember that running backs Ryan Grant, Earnest Graham, Kenny Watson and Justin Fargas all likely went undrafted last season, yet provided much firepower to teams in need.

If any of these players are still around, I would take them before a top WR in round 2:

• RB Marion Barber
• RB Marshawn Lynch
• RB Frank Gore
• RB Clinton Portis
• RB Larry Johnson
• QB Tom Brady

But unless you are drafting at 12 or 13, it's unlikely any of these players will make it to you. If that's the case, look to select a premier wide receiver in the 2nd round from among this list:

• Randy Moss
• Reggie Wayne
• Terrell Owens
• Braylon Edwards
• Larry Fitzgerald

Here are the other WRs that I would target for value:

• Calvin Johnson, Det (Value = 34, ADP = 53) in the middle of the 4th round or later - I have a feeling we are going to see Calvin become an elite player in 2008. Every camp report out of Detroit is glowing about his receiving skills and how much better he looks. And with Roy Williams also a threat, Johnson should get softer coverage than expected against someone of his skill-set


• Santonio Holmes, Pit (Value = 35, ADP = 44) in the middle of the 4th round or later - He finished as the 18th best WR while only playing in 13 games. And he did all of this on just 52 catches. He is among the best deep threats in the game today. Look for him to improve in 2008 as he hits his stride as a third-year wide receiver.


• Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ (Value = 43, ADP = 63) in the 5th round or later - In my opinion, here is the winner with the Brett Favre signing. He surpassed Coles production last year and is poised to take a big step forward scoring more TDs this season with improved QB play from Favre.


• Roddy White, Atl (Value = 57, ADP = 71) in the 6th round or later - He finished as the 14th best WR in 2007 and should have better QB play this season.


• Reggie Brown, Phi (Value = 70, ADP = 108) in the 9th round or later - This is another opportunity play. We know the Eagles will throw the ball a lot and someone has to catch those passes. Kevin Curtis' injury all but assures Reggie Brown will get a chance to be that go-to guy (provided he can stay healthy).


• Nate Burleson, Sea (Value = 72, ADP = 91) in the 8th round or later - This is all about opportunity. He should lock down the #1 or #2 WR spot for the Seahawks (while Deion Branch and Bobby Engram fight to come back from injuries) which should translate to an increase in targets and production.


• Ted Ginn, Mia (Value = 91, ADP = 140) in the 11th round or later - He has the inside track to be the #1 WR in Miami and should be more successful in his second year. He is among the safest picks at wide receiver this season and should easily surpass his draft position.

Other WR Value Picks:

• Devin Hester, Chi (Value = 109, ADP = 143) in the 11th round or later.
• Mark Clayton, Bal (Value = 117, ADP = 152) in the 12th round or later.
• Kevin Walter, Hou (Value = 102, ADP = 200) in the 14th round or later.
• Justin Gage, Ten (Value = 119, ADP = 173) in the 14th round or later.
• Laurent Robinson, Atl (Value = 120, ADP = 195) in the 14th round or later.
• DeSean Jackson, Phi (Value = 130, ADP = 178) in the 14th round or later.
• David Patten, NO (Value = 125, ADP = >220) in the 15th round or later.
• Derek Hagan, Mia (Value = 127, ADP = 219) in the 15th round or later.
• Antonio Bryant, TB (Value = 153, ADP = >220) in the 16th round or later.

Some other WRs will undoubtedly slip in your drafts besides the above targeted bargain list. In recap grab 3-4 receivers in rounds 2 through 6 and then wait for exceptional value to emerge at WR because it always does.

Tight Ends

This is a strange year for tight ends. Antonio Gates generally heads this list, but he is currently injured and it's unknown if he will be able to play in week 1. This has created a logjam of sorts at the top spots with Jason Witten (ADP = 39), Kellen Winslow (ADP = 49) and Gates (ADP = 50) and all going in the fourth round or before. With as deep as the tight ends are this year, I think it would be a huge mistake to target any of the top 3 TEs. In fact, most of the big names at this position should be avoided due to the depth at the position.

Go ahead and scratch off these names:

• Jason Witten
• Kellen Winslow
• Antonio Gates
• Tony Gonzalez
• Chris Cooley

All will be taken at a time when it's imperative to stock up key RB and WR talent.

But fear not. There are always bargains at the tight end position late in a draft. In fact once the top 7-8 names come off the board, there is minimal pressure on the TE position the rest of the draft. It's no surprise that since TEs catch a relatively small amount of passes, primarily on short and intermediate routes (again, excluding the top tier guys), there usually isn't a great deal of variance between the fourth-best TE and the 12th best, witness:

• 2007 - 4th (141 points), 12th (79 points) = 62 points difference (3.88 per game)
• 2006 - 4th (113 points), 12th (81 points) = 32 points difference (2.00 per game)
• 2005 - 4th (119 points), 12th (77 points) = 42 points difference (2.63 per game)
• 2004 - 4th (113 points), 12th (69 points) = 44 points difference (2.75 per game)
• 2003 -- 4th (74 points), 12th (65 points) = 9 points difference (0.56 per game)
• 5 YR AVG -- 4th (112 points), 12th (74 points) = 31 points difference (2.38 per game)

So ultimately, once you get past the big TEs, you're really debating over a point or two per week (which is why it is wise to just wait until the later rounds to select a TE).

The tight end that I will be targeting in most of my drafts this year is Owen Daniels, Hou (Value = 84, ADP = 116) in the 9th round or later. It's not a sexy pick, but I expect he will be solid all year long. He caught 63 passes last season and just needs to increase his TDs to be a very good player.

Here are the other TEs that I believe will have exceptional value in the draft:

• Zach Miller, Oak (Value = 124, ADP = 174) in the 13th round or better - This kid has great skills and should be used a lot as a dump off from JaMarcus Russell. Look for him to emerge in 2008.


• Tony Scheffler, Den (Value = 100, ADP = 119) in the 10th round or later - He started 2007 injured, but really found his groove in the last half of the year. In his last 6 games, he caught 26 passes for 319 yards and 3 TDs. Pro-rated to a full season, Scheffler would have finished the year as TE5 while producing 850 yards and 8 TDs.

Place Kickers

Who cares right? Well...kind of right. Definitely nothing you should even look at until round 14 of your draft. But all drafts are different. In leagues that go after kickers early, just wait. You can get an adequate PK three rounds after every other owner has their first.

In leagues that slough this position until real late, look towards the top of the kicker list in round 14. If your top kicker is available then draft him. Suffice it to say that in a lot of leagues now, people wait too long to take their kickers. As a rule of thumb, you can generally maximize kicker value by taking the fifth to eighth kicker off the board. In waiver wire friendly leagues (most), don't be afraid to draft just one kicker and add others as necessary during the season to cover the bye weeks and/or exploit matchups.

I am targeting these value guys should kickers go too early:

• Josh Scobee, Jac (Value = 185, ADP = 207) in the 17th round or later.
• Jeff Reed, Pit (Value = 196, ADP > 220) in the 18th round or later.

Defenses

Scoring systems generally come into play and define when defenses are taken. I suggest you wait until round 12 to assess what to do about this position. If San Diego or Minnesota is still on the board, grab them. If these teams are gone though, I would wait until late in the draft and implement Chase Stuart's suggested combo of the Buffalo Bills and New Orleans Saints. Both can be selected very late in the draft.

If roster spots are hard to come by, I would target these value defenses late in the draft:

• Philadelphia (Value = 187, ADP = 197) in the 17th round
• Oakland (Value = 200, ADP > 220) in the 18th round
• Buffalo (Value = 190, ADP > 220) in the 18th round

Because owners rank defenses so differently, you can generally get good value just by waiting for the value to emerge.

Another winning strategy to deploy after the draft for defenses is simply to look two games ahead in the waiver process. Most teams will have one or two defenses meaning that half of the defenses are available as free agent pick ups each week. By looking two to three weeks ahead at who will be playing Atlanta, Miami, Oakland, Kansas City and Chicago, you likely can find a cheap defense that should perform well against subpar offenses. Drop this defense after their "quality game" so that you can continue to pick up other defenses that will have good weeks. Because of this strategy, I advise you to draft just one quality defense and look to play matchups the rest of the way. Every year two or three defenses are predicted to be terrible but end up playing great.

Putting It All Together

1. Draft a running back in round 1. Your draft spot will determine who you are able to get. If you are lucky enough to have a shot at two of the top 10 running backs, order a round of drinks for your leaguemates and find a good engraver for the trophy.


2. Use rounds 2-6 to lock up talent at WR and to get an additional RB. Don't reach for RB2. It's OK to start the year a little weak at this position as long as you continue to draft for outstanding value. This value can be packaged later to solidify the RB2 spot on your squad for your playoff push.


3. Look to grab Matt Schaub, Jay Cutler or David Garrard around round 8 after key triggers have indicated these guys will be selected soon. Add Vince Young, Jon Kitna, and/or Jason Campbell for depth at the position in rounds 10 or 11.


4. Sluff TE until about 9-10 have been selected and then pick Owen Daniels with confidence.


5. Add value at QB, RB, WR and TE in the middle rounds to protect bye weeks and give yourself a chance to trade off talent to bolster your RB squad as the season progresses.


6. Sluff defense unless San Diego or Minnesota is still available in round 12. If you are unable to get a top 3 defense at the right price, look towards implementing the DTBC combo of Buffalo and New Orleans.


7. Sluff kicker unless a top one is available (Vinatieri or Folk) when you get to round 14. Generally waiting to select the 5th to 8th kicker leads to getting a great player at a good draft spot.

Well that is it folks. Hope you all do well in your coming drafts. Remember, the key is not to just follow the Top 200 list but to see where it differs substantially from average drafts. This is how you get value with every pick. And value is how you build winning fantasy teams.

Top 220 List Sorted by Position (as of 8/20)