The Perfect Draft - 12-team League
Posted 8/13 by David Dodds, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
This is the first of a five-part series. The other versions will be 10-team, 14-team, Auction and WCOFF (PPR) formats. They are all expected to be released within 7 days.
I started penning this article in 2002 to put my predraft thoughts to paper. Like most things in life, I find I do my best when I plan to succeed. This article is my attempt at that. I work hard at doing projections every year. At Footballguys, we also put together the most comprehensive ADP lists (from 5+ sources). So the information about value is certainly readily available. The trick to having a perfect draft though is to anticipate those "pockets of value" and build your team so that you get the lion's share of these guys.
There is not one way to have a perfect draft. In fact, the biggest criticism I often get is that I am willing to wait on QB and/or TE in a lot of drafts. Many drafters show me teams where they grab a guy like Romo early and then knock the rest of the draft out of the park. That's definitely possible. And against weak competition, it is also the preferred gameplan.
This article assumes fairly educated drafters. You need to decide whether your league is full of sharks, guppies or a combination of both. Count the number of Footballguys subscriptions and compare that to the number of guys crossing off players from their magazine cheatsheet to get a feel for this if you really are unsure. I state this here, because against softer competition the shark move is to grab the quality QBs and TEs too. You should do this because it's nearly assured you will also get many great players to slide to you at RB and WR. Against great competition, reaching for a player at the wrong time can quickly dismantle your draft and leave you missing the key "pockets of value" that can help your chances at winning.
Before we can have the "Perfect Draft", let's define our measure of success. After the draft, your team should have these qualities:
- Against multiple projection sets, your team always grades out as one of the best teams
- You secured a great number of players that will outperform their draft position.
- You have quality depth (in the right places) to allow for postdraft trades.
- The majority of owners recognize that you have a team that should easily reach the playoffs.
These aren't absolutes, but I list them here so we know what we are trying to build.
Let's start with the two basic principles of Value Based Drafting (VBD). I will expound on them as we go through this.
- All Players Have Value
Don't love anyone. Don't hate anyone. Get players that will significantly outperform their draft position and you will build a winning team. - Understand What the Average Guy Thinks
You may believe someone will be the 10th best WR, but if everybody else does not then you need to wait to maximize value.
If you don't follow these principles, you will not have a perfect draft. If you believe rookie WRs are always bad or drafting anyone over 30 is too big of an injury risk, then you will not have the perfect draft. Throw away the biases. Let value guide your draft. Let others succumb to prejudices and generalities. You are here to win your league. And you do that by getting value with every pick.
How do we define value? Value Based Drafting (VBD) has shown us that we can compare unlike positions for comparative value. The cornerstone of VBD starts with solid projections. And these projections can be manipulated to form Top 200+ lists. I have provided my own Top 220 list at the end of this article (based on my projections) that has been sorted by position. I have highlighted favorable differences in green to indicate players that may be bargains on draft day.
Let's have the perfect draft.
The goal is to get you the best possible team and to make sure you don't overpay for players that can still be had a few rounds later. What I look for are players that I project significantly better than where they are being drafted. The positional analysis tracks to my projections.
This article assumes a 12 team league using scoring that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Def and 1 PK. Fantasy points are calculated as follows:
- Passing TDs = 4 points
- Interceptions = -1 points
- Rushing/receiving TDs = 6 points
- Passing yardage = 0.05 pts per yard (1 pt per 20 yards)
- Rushing/receiving yardage = 0.10 pts per yard (1 pt per 10 yards)
Quarterbacks
With history as our guide, we know the top QBs are almost always drafted too early. And this makes sense. The QB position generally scores the most points so fantasy players want a good one. But since most leagues only require one starting QB there is little pressure on the remaining QBs after the first six or seven are gone.
Grabbing quarterbacks early seems to be very much in vogue this year after Tom Brady's 2007 historical season. Most owners that had Tom Brady made the playoffs last year regardless of the other players they took and generally independent of scoring systems. He was that much better than everyone else at the position.
Going into 2008, Brady has all the weapons back and a coach likely still wanting to punish every other team on the field by scoring early and often. If you think Brady will throw for 40+ TDs, he has to be high on your draft board. And by high, I mean top 6 high. I personally expect him to throw about 40 TDs and because of this he is the number 5 player on my Top 200 list. But history says predicting 40+ TDs for a QB is bordering on insanity. It's likely a losing proposition despite how great Brady was last year. Weighing this into things and knowing there are sweet spots to draft quality QBs at a severe discount later points me to passing on Brady unless he is still there at pick 10 or later.
The other top QBs that people like are going way too early for my liking. Just
scratch off
Peyton Manning (ADP = 12), Tony Romo (ADP = 17), Drew Brees (ADP = 26), Carson
Palmer (ADP = 34), Ben Roethlisberger (ADP = 43) and Derek Anderson (ADP = 49)
from your cheatsheets. Someone will overpay for every one of these players in
virtually every league across America.
Don't be that owner. If you do, you will not have the perfect draft. Resist the temptation and let others grab these stars. How can I say that with such conviction? Because draft after draft, I have seen the same thing happen. People overpay for the top quarterbacks, and then a lull takes place before a mad rush ensues for the quality quarterbacks left. The guys you need are in this second group and by waiting you will secure the running back and wide receiver talent needed to field a dominate team.
Quarterback Sweet Spot #1
I see these three players in this group:
- Donovan McNabb (ADP = 60)
- Jay Cutler (ADP = 79)
- David Garrard (ADP = 87).
Let's look deeper into these players:
- Donovan McNabb, Phi (Value = 62, ADP = 60) - I list McNabb with these players, because his ADP varies greatly by draft. Sometimes he goes early and other times he slides a great deal. I would pass on him at pick 60, but he represents great value around pick 70. The Eagles passing offense has averaged 580 passing attempts, 4072 yards and 25 TDs over the last 3 years. McNabb's ADP has more to do with the possibility he will miss time to injury than what people expect he will do in the games he starts.
- Jay Cutler, Den (Value = 65, ADP = 79) - Cutler has become a very capable QB in just 2 years and has an elite WR in Brandon Marshall. Marshall will miss at least the first 2 NFL games (due to a suspension from Goodell), but has been very impressive in camp this season. Combined with a suspect running game, it's easy to see Cutler (and the passing game) having an expanded role this season.
- David Garrard, Jac (Value = 73, ADP = 87) - In just 12 games, Garrard ranked as the 16th best QB in 2007. He is the unquestioned starter on a team that is on the rise. Including playoff games, Garrard scored over 16 fantasy points in all but two of his games (12 of 14). Contrast that with Eli Manning who managed to score 16+ fantasy points in just 9 of his 20 games last season. Let others target Eli Manning around pick 82. You can pick up Garrard at a similar cost and have a player who you can count on week in and out.
Your goal in drafts this year is try and secure at least one quarterback from this sweet spot. And here is how you do that. Wait until three of the following players get selected among this group:
- Donovan McNabb (ADP = 60)
- Matt Hasselbeck (ADP = 65)
- Jay Cutler (ADP = 79)
- Marc Bulger (ADP = 81)
- Eli Manning (ADP = 82)
- David Garrard (ADP = 87)
- Brett Favre (ADP = 88).
Those are your triggers. When three are off the board, target QB with your next selection. In most leagues this first pick should be around the end of the 7th round (or early eighth round). Leagues vary though so pay more attention to the triggers than the actual round.
Quarterback Sweet Spot #2
A second spot emerges after most teams have selected their quarterback. This sweet spot is created because the owners that selected the early QB stars like Brady, Manning, Romo, etc now are scrambling to add RB and WRs in these rounds.
This second sweet spot includes these players
- Vince Young (ADP = 130)
- Philip Rivers (ADP = 110)
- Aaron Rodgers (ADP = 117)
- Matt Schaub (ADP = 119)
- Jason Campbell (ADP = 129).
Let's look at their situations more closely:
- Vince Young, Ten (Value = 92, ADP = 130) in the 10th round or later - He runs for too many yards to discount him too much in my opinion. He grades out as QB 13 and I have him throwing just 2,734 yards and 15 TDs. Because of his legs, he can easily add 500 yards and 4-5 scores on the ground if healthy. He is no danger of losing his starting spot and is a very high upside pick (with minimal downside) in my opinion.
- Philip Rivers, SD (Value = 98, ADP = 110) in the 10th round or later - Not a glamorous selection, but Rivers has two capable WRs, an elite TE (when healthy) and an elite RB that can catch the ball. Rivers is a very safe QB selection with minimal downside.
- Aaron Rodgers, GB (Value = 104, ADP = 117) in the 11th round or later - I am not going to suggest that Aaron Rodgers is Brett Favre, but as quarterback of the Green Bay Packers he is blessed with a lot of surrounding talent in 2008. Any QB would love to have Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones and Jordy Nelson to throw the ball to. Favre finished as the 8th best QB in 2007 while throwing for 4,157 yards and 28 TDs. Rodgers, filling in for an injured Favre in week 13, managed 201 yards passing, 30 yards rushing and 1 passing TD in about 2 and ½ quarters of play. At his current draft position, Rodgers represents all upside if he can stay healthy.
- Matt Schaub, Hou ( Value = 112, ADP = 119) in the 11th round or later - The Houston QBs (Schaub and Rosenfels) combined for 3,925 passing yards and 24 TDs last year. If Schaub stays healthy in 2008, he should easily surpass his ADP.
- Jason Campbell, Was (Value = 115, ADP = 129) in the 11th round or later - Sometimes it's all about the schedule. And the Redskins have a dream schedule in 2008 playing a lot of opponents that are simply horrible at defending the pass. The Redskins also bolstered their passing attack in 2008 by adding Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly and Fred Davis through the NFL draft. Make no mistake about it. Jason Campbell will finally have the weapons he needs and will benefit from a schedule that should ensure success. In just thirteen games in 2007, Campbell finished as the 18th best QB. With more weapons and an easier schedule, Campbell is flying way below the radar this season.
A deep sleeper at quarterback is Alex Smith, SF. He is being drafted very late (ADP = 220), but could benefit from newly hired offensive coordinator Mike Martz. It's no secret Mike likes to throw the ball a lot and he has made very average quarterbacks look great running his schemes. All reports are that Shaun Hill can't digest the complex Martz playbook and the battle is between Smith and J.T. O'Sullivan to start. As bad as Alex has been, he should still be able to hold off O'Sullivan this season. So if you can afford a late roster spot, Alex Smith might be worth stashing away this season.
Running Backs
The league is changing in front of our eyes. The days of most teams having a power-back to shoulder 75-80% of the load have been replaced with running back by committees (RBBC). The NFL is a copycat league and general managers consistently tweak their teams when another has success with a certain formula. So when some of the most dominant teams in the league are using RBBC, we have something more than a coincidence. We have a blueprint that other teams are likely to follow going forward.
In years past, the goal was to try and lock up RBs with your first two to three selections. There were not enough RBs to go around so hoarding these backs was the shark move. It forced other owners to reach in the middle rounds for players that would rarely yield production unless the starter was injured or benched. But with so many teams running RBBC these days, supply on the second, third and fourth tier backs has actually increased.
Instead of risking your second and third picks on "lesser backs" mired in RBBCs, I believe you will construct your best fantasy roster by selecting your RB1 starter in the first round and then move on to the elite WRs (that do not come with question marks). In my opinion, drafting RBs for value in rounds 4 through 8 should yield the optimal team.
Here are the other RBs that I would target for value:
- Edgerrin James, Ari (Value = 35, ADP = 44) in the 4th round or later - James has minimal competition for carries in Arizona so he should easily surpass his draft position. He finished as the 10th best fantasy back last year and should put up similar numbers in 2008.
- Darren McFadden, Oak (Value = 41, ADP = 46) in the mid 4th round or later - He is wowing everyone in camp and could have a giant role within the Oakland offense. He will split carries with Fargas early in the season limiting his upside, but should be active in the passing game.
- Selvin Young, Den (Value = 46, ADP = 63) in the 5th round or later - Denver's RBs are falling like flies so Selvin Young will get a long look this season to be the guy running in the successful zone-blocking schemes.
- DeAngelo Williams, Car (Value = 72, ADP = 83) in the 7th round or later - When the team let DeShaun Foster leave via free agency, it was thought Williams would take over as the starting RB for Carolina. But the Panthers chose Oregon standout Jonathan Stewart with their first pick so now the RB situation is muddied. I expect DeAngelo to be the better fantasy player for 2008, but both Williams and Stewart will see duties in a likely full-blown RBBC. But in the seventh round, you are getting a quality player in an offense that loves to run the ball. Stewart's lingering toe injury could also be just the break Williams needs to grab a bigger role early in this offense.
- Jerious Norwood, Atl (Value = 88, ADP = 113) in the 9th round or later - He has shown good skill in his limited carries each of the last two seasons averaging 6.2 yards per rushing attempt. Michael Turner was brought in via free agency, but could falter with a bigger workload. Should the door open, Norwood could represent great value in the middle rounds.
- Ray Rice, Bal (Value = 100, ADP = 128) in the 10th round or later - McGahee just underwent arthroscopic surgery and will likely miss the rest of the preseason at a minimum. Meanwhile Ray Rice has looked fantastic in camp. Things can change fast in the NFL and Rice could have a huge role in this offense starting this season.
- Sammy Morris, NE (Value = 153, ADP = 179) in the 14th round or later - He filled in nicely for the injured Laurence Maroney before succumbing to injuries himself in 2007. Even in a RBBC, Morris could have decent value as a TD vulture within this high-powered offense. Maroney, in his short career, has not shown he is durable at all. And in the New England offense, you just need to get on the field to be productive.
- Fred Jackson, Buf (Value = 184, ADP = 207) in the 17th round or later - He showed good skill last year when given the opportunity. It would likely take a Marshawn Lynch injury for him to get significant playing time, but at this price it's worth the gamble.
Wide Receivers
The biggest key to having a great wide receiver corps is implementing the QB and RB strategies from steps one and two above. By waiting at QB until round seven or later and grabbing an elite RB in round one, you position yourself to nab the top talent at wide receiver in rounds two through six. At the end of round six, you should have 2-3 RBs and 3-4 WRs. By the end of the draft, you should have 7 to 10 WRs on your squad. That may seem excessive, but some of these players will likely bust and depth at WR allows you maximum flexibility to trade during the season.
Although a team constructed like this may look slightly weak at RB2, it will provide you with a powerhouse weekly roster by locking down great WR talent. This will allow you to draft for value the entire draft and stockpile talent that likely can be used to trade for a RB that breaks out this season. Remember that running backs Ryan Grant, Earnest Graham, Kenny Watson and Justin Fargas all likely went undrafted last season, yet provided much firepower to teams in need.
If any of these players are still around, I would take them before a top WR in round 2:
- RB Marion Barber
- RB Marshawn Lynch
- RB Frank Gore
- RB Clinton Portis
- RB Larry Johnson
- QB Tom Brady.
But unless you are drafting at 12 or 13, it's unlikely any of these players will make it to you. If that's the case, look to select a premier wide receiver in the 2nd round from among this list:
- Randy Moss
- Reggie Wayne
- Terrell Owens
- Braylon Edwards
- Larry Fitzgerald.
Here are the other WRs that I would target for value:
- Chad Johnson, Cin (Value = 21, ADP =27) in the 3rd round or later - The Bengals are still soft on defense and let go of WR Chris Henry this offseason. That means the team will likely be playing from behind often and have fewer receivers to catch those passes. Chad Johnson should have a productive year.
- Santonio Holmes, Pit (Value = 34, ADP = 47) in the middle of the 4th round or later - He finished as the 18th best WR while only playing in 13 games. And he did all of this on just 52 catches. He is among the best deep threats in the game today. Look for him to improve in 2008 as he hits his stride as a third-year wide receiver.
- Calvin Johnson, Det (Value = 36, ADP = 53) in the middle of the 4th round or later - I have a feeling we are going to see Calvin become an elite player in 2008. Every camp report out of Detroit is glowing about his receiving skills and how much better he looks. And with Roy Williams also a threat, Johnson should get softer coverage than expected against someone of his skill-set
- Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ (Value = 54, ADP = 72) in the 6th round or later - In my opinion, here is the winner with the Brett Favre signing. He surpassed Coles production last year and is poised to take a big step forward scoring more TDs this season with improved QB play from Favre.
- Kevin Curtis, Phi (Value = 60, ADP = 80) in the 7th round or later - He should be McNabb's favorite target again this season. Last year he finished as the 17th best WR despite McNabb playing just over 13 games. With another year of chemistry, Curtis should complete more of his targets to catches.
- Nate Burleson, Sea (Value = 78, ADP = 96) in the 8th round or later - This is all about opportunity. He should lock down the #1 or #2 WR spot for the Seahawks (while Deion Branch and Bobby Engram fight to come back from injuries) which should translate to an increase in targets and production.
- Reggie Brown, Phi (Value = 89, ADP = 101) in the 9th round or later - This is another opportunity play. We know the Eagles will throw the ball a lot and someone has to catch those passes.
- Ted Ginn, Mia (Value = 96, ADP = 140) in the 11th round or later - He has the inside track to be the #1 WR in Miami and should be more successful in his second year. He is among the safest picks at wide receiver this season and should easily surpass his draft position.
- Bryant Johnson, SF (Value = 97, ADP = 123) in the 11th round or later - This is just a complete unknown situation. Johnson was buried behind Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin in Arizona so it's difficult to assess how well he will do in San Francisco. One thing is for sure though. He will be playing for OC Mike Martz who will use him often. I expect Bryant Johnson to emerge this year in the pass-friendly system that Martz will employ.
Other WR Value Picks:
- Mark Clayton, Bal (Value = 119, ADP = 151) in the 12th round or later.
- Devin Hester, Chi (Value = 120, ADP = 148) in the 12th round or later.
- Justin Gage, Ten (Value = 124, ADP = 176) in the 13th round or later
- James Jones, GB (Value = 125, ADP > 220) in the 14th round or later
- Drew Bennett, StL (Value = 129, ADP = 169) in the 14th round or later
- Kevin Walter, Hou (Value = 130, ADP = 204) in the 14th round or later
- Laurent Robinson, Atl (Value = 134, ADP = 192) in the 14th round or later
- Derek Hagan, Mia (Value = 146, ADP >220) in the 15th round or later
- David Patten, NO (Value = 157, ADP >220) in the 15th round or later
- Michael Clayton, TB (Value = 161, ADP > 220) in the 15th round or later
Some other WRs will undoubtedly slip in your drafts besides the above targeted bargain list. In recap grab 3-4 receivers in rounds 2 through 6 and then wait for exceptional value to emerge at WR because it always does.
Tight Ends
This is a strange year for tight ends. Antonio Gates generally heads this list, but he is currently injured and it's unknown if he will be able to play in week 1. This has created a logjam of sorts at the top spots with Jason Witten (ADP = 40), Kellen Winslow (ADP = 48) and Gates (ADP = 50) and all going in the fourth round or before. With as deep as the tight ends are this year, I think it would be a huge mistake to target any of the top 3 TEs. In fact, most of the big names at this position should be avoided due to the depth at the position.
Go ahead and scratch off these names:
- Jason Witten
- Kellen Winslow
- Antonio Gates
- Tony Gonzalez
- Chris Cooley
All will be taken at a time when it's imperative to stock up key RB and WR talent.
But fear not. There are always bargains at the tight end position late in a draft. In fact once the top 7-8 names come off the board, there is minimal pressure on the TE position the rest of the draft. It's no surprise that since TEs catch a relatively small amount of passes, primarily on short and intermediate routes (again, excluding the top tier guys), there usually isn't a great deal of variance between the fourth-best TE and the 12th best, witness:
- 2007 - 4th (141 points), 12th (79 points) = 62 points difference (3.88 per game)
- 2006 - 4th (113 points), 12th (81 points) = 32 points difference (2.00 per game)
- 2005 - 4th (119 points), 12th (77 points) = 42 points difference (2.63 per game)
- 2004 - 4th (113 points), 12th (69 points) = 44 points difference (2.75 per game)
- 2003 -- 4th (74 points), 12th (65 points) = 9 points difference (0.56 per game)
- 5 YR AVG -- 4th (112 points), 12th (74 points) = 31 points difference (2.38 per game)
So ultimately, once you get past the big TEs, you're really debating over a point or two per week (which is why it is wise to just wait until the later rounds to select a TE).
The tight end that I will be targeting in most of my drafts this year is Owen Daniels, Hou (Value = 83, ADP = 115) in the 9th round or later. It's not a sexy pick, but I expect he will be solid all year long. He caught 63 passes last season and just needs to increase his TDs to be a very good player.
Here are the other TEs that I believe will have exceptional value in the draft:
- Zach Miller, Oak (Value = 127, ADP = 171) in the 14th round or better - This kid has great skills and should be used a lot as a dump off from JaMarcus Russell. Look for him to emerge in 2008.
- L.J. Smith, Phi (Value = 143, ADP = 213) in the 14th round or later - It's crazy to think L.J. Smith could be around this late in drafts while playing for a team that loves to feature the tight end. LJ finished as the 9th best TE in both 2005 and 2006 (his last healthy seasons). He missed 6 games in 2007 and was never quite right. At this price, L.J. Smith represents virtually no risk and could easily return as a top 10 tight end if he stays healthy.
Place Kickers
Who cares right? Well...kind of right. Definitely nothing you should even look at until round 14 of your draft. But all drafts are different. In leagues that go after kickers early, just wait. You can get an adequate PK three rounds after every other owner has their first.
In leagues that slough this position until real late, look towards the top of the kicker list in round 14. If your top kicker is available then draft him. Suffice it to say that in a lot of leagues now, people wait too long to take their kickers. As a rule of thumb, you can generally maximize kicker value by taking the fifth to eighth kicker off the board. In waiver wire friendly leagues (most), don't be afraid to draft just one kicker and add others as necessary during the season to cover the bye weeks and/or exploit matchups.
I am targeting these value guys should kickers go too early:
- Josh Scobee, Jac (Value = 187, ADP = 211) in the 17th round or later.
- Jeff Reed, Pit (Value = 196, ADP > 220) in the 18th round or later.
Defenses
Scoring systems generally come into play and define when defenses are taken. I suggest you wait until round 12 to assess what to do about this position. If San Diego or Minnesota is still on the board, grab them. If these teams are gone though, I would wait until late in the draft and implement Chase Stuart's suggested combo of the Buffalo Bills and New Orleans Saints. Both can be selected very late in the draft.
If roster spots are hard to come by, I would target these value defenses late in the draft:
- Philadelphia (Value = 186, ADP = 198) in the 17th round
- Oakland (Value = 192, ADP > 220) in the 18th round
- Buffalo (Value = 195, ADP = 217) in the 18th round
Because owners rank defenses so differently, you can generally get good value just by waiting for the value to emerge.
Another winning strategy to deploy after the draft for defenses is simply to look two games ahead in the waiver process. Most teams will have one or two defenses meaning that half of the defenses are available as free agent pick ups each week. By looking two to three weeks ahead at who will be playing Atlanta, Miami, Oakland, Kansas City and Chicago, you likely can find a cheap defense that should perform well against subpar offenses. Drop this defense after their "quality game" so that you can continue to pick up other defenses that will have good weeks. Because of this strategy, I advise you to draft just one quality defense and look to play matchups the rest of the way. Every year two or three defenses are predicted to be terrible but end up playing great.
Putting It All Together
- Draft a running back in round 1. Your draft spot will determine who you are able to get. If you are lucky enough to have a shot at two of the top 10 running backs, order a round of drinks for your leaguemates and find a good engraver for the trophy.
- Use rounds 2-6 to lock up talent at WR and to get an additional RB. Don't reach for RB2. It's OK to start the year a little weak at this position as long as you continue to draft for outstanding value. This value can be packaged later to solidify the RB2 spot on your squad for your playoff push.
- Look to grab Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler or David Garrard around round 8 after key triggers have indicated these guys will be selected soon. Add Vince Young, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers and/or Jason Campbell for depth at the position in rounds 10 or 11.
- Slough TE until about 9-10 have been selected and then pick Owen Daniels with confidence.
- Add value at QB, RB, WR and TE in the middle rounds to protect bye weeks and give yourself a chance to trade off talent to bolster your RB squad as the season progresses.
- Slough defense unless San Diego or Minnesota is still available in round 12. If you are unable to get a top 3 defense at the right price, look towards implementing the DTBC combo of Buffalo and New Orleans.
- Slough kicker unless a top one is available (Vinatieri or Folk) when you get to round 14. Generally waiting to select the 5th to 8th kicker leads to getting a great player at a good draft spot.
Well that is it folks. Hope you all do well in your coming drafts. Remember, the key is not to just follow the Top 200 list but to see where it differs substantially from average drafts. This is how you get value with every pick. And value is how you build winning fantasy teams.
Top 220 List Sorted by Position
|
Rank
|
ADP
|
Diff
|
Pos
|
Player |
Team
|
|
111
|
91
|
-20
|
Def1
|
Minnesota |
Min
|
|
117
|
90
|
-27
|
Def2
|
San Diego |
SD
|
|
138
|
108
|
-30
|
Def3
|
New England |
NE
|
|
143
|
124
|
-19
|
Def4
|
Jacksonville |
Jac
|
|
148
|
116
|
-32
|
Def5
|
Dallas |
Dal
|
|
154
|
121
|
-33
|
Def6
|
Pittsburgh |
Pit
|
|
158
|
109
|
-49
|
Def7
|
Chicago |
Chi
|
|
165
|
127
|
-38
|
Def8
|
New York Giants |
NYG
|
|
169
|
146
|
-23
|
Def9
|
Baltimore |
Bal
|
|
174
|
154
|
-20
|
Def10
|
Seattle |
Sea
|
|
176
|
168
|
-8
|
Def11
|
Tampa Bay |
TB
|
|
179
|
144
|
-35
|
Def12
|
Green Bay |
GB
|
|
181
|
160
|
-21
|
Def13
|
Indianapolis |
Ind
|
|
186
|
198
|
12
|
Def14
|
Philadelphia |
Phi
|
|
192
|
>220
|
33
|
Def15
|
Oakland |
Oak
|
|
195
|
217
|
22
|
Def16
|
Buffalo |
Buf
|
|
207
|
206
|
-1
|
Def17
|
Tennessee |
Ten
|
|
215
|
219
|
4
|
Def18
|
Washington |
Was
|
|
149
|
141
|
-8
|
PK1
|
Nick Folk |
Dal
|
|
151
|
150
|
-1
|
PK2
|
Adam Vinatieri |
Ind
|
|
159
|
166
|
7
|
PK3
|
Nate Kaeding |
SD
|
|
163
|
142
|
-21
|
PK4
|
Stephen Gostkowski |
NE
|
|
182
|
170
|
-12
|
PK5
|
Shayne Graham |
Cin
|
|
187
|
211
|
24
|
PK6
|
Josh Scobee |
Jac
|
|
188
|
191
|
3
|
PK7
|
Phil Dawson |
Cle
|
|
194
|
163
|
-31
|
PK8
|
Mason Crosby |
GB
|
|
196
|
>220
|
29
|
PK9
|
Jeff Reed |
Pit
|
|
199
|
203
|
4
|
PK10
|
Neil Rackers |
Ari
|
|
201
|
167
|
-34
|
PK11
|
Josh Brown |
StL
|
|
205
|
199
|
-6
|
PK12
|
Rob Bironas |
Ten
|
|
212
|
>220
|
13
|
PK13
|
Kris Brown |
Hou
|
|
217
|
>220
|
8
|
PK14
|
Matt Prater |
Den
|
|
219
|
>220
|
6
|
PK15
|
David Akers |
Phi
|
|
5
|
6
|
1
|
QB1
|
Tom Brady |
NE
|
|
18
|
12
|
-6
|
QB2
|
Peyton Manning |
Ind
|
|
25
|
17
|
-8
|
QB3
|
Tony Romo |
Dal
|
|
31
|
26
|
-5
|
QB4
|
Drew Brees |
NO
|
|
47
|
34
|
-13
|
QB5
|
Carson Palmer |
Cin
|
|
57
|
43
|
-14
|
QB6
|
Ben Roethlisberger |
Pit
|
|
62
|
60
|
-2
|
QB7
|
Donovan McNabb |
Phi
|
|
65
|
79
|
14
|
QB8
|
Jay Cutler |
Den
|
|
73
|
87
|
14
|
QB9
|
David Garrard |
Jac
|
|
75
|
49
|
-26
|
QB10
|
Derek Anderson |
Cle
|
|
81
|
81
|
0
|
QB11
|
Marc Bulger |
StL
|
|
84
|
65
|
-19
|
QB12
|
Matt Hasselbeck |
Sea
|
|
92
|
130
|
38
|
QB13
|
Vince Young |
Ten
|
|
98
|
110
|
12
|
QB14
|
Philip Rivers |
SD
|
|
104
|
117
|
13
|
QB15
|
Aaron Rodgers |
GB
|
|
108
|
82
|
-26
|
QB16
|
Eli Manning |
NYG
|
|
112
|
119
|
7
|
QB17
|
Matt Schaub |
Hou
|
|
115
|
129
|
14
|
QB18
|
Jason Campbell |
Was
|
|
121
|
102
|
-19
|
QB19
|
Jake Delhomme |
Car
|
|
126
|
132
|
6
|
QB20
|
Jon Kitna |
Det
|
|
131
|
88
|
-43
|
QB21
|
Brett Favre |
NYJ
|
|
139
|
183
|
44
|
QB22
|
Tarvaris Jackson |
Min
|
|
142
|
165
|
23
|
QB23
|
Jeff Garcia |
TB
|
|
152
|
181
|
29
|
QB24
|
JaMarcus Russell |
Oak
|
|
164
|
188
|
24
|
QB25
|
Trent Edwards |
Buf
|
|
167
|
149
|
-18
|
QB26
|
Matt Leinart |
Ari
|
|
170
|
220
|
50
|
QB27
|
Alex Smith |
SF
|
|
183
|
>220
|
42
|
QB28
|
Chad Pennington |
Mia
|
|
189
|
>220
|
36
|
QB29
|
Brodie Croyle |
KC
|
|
197
|
>220
|
28
|
QB30
|
Rex Grossman |
Chi
|
|
208
|
>220
|
17
|
QB31
|
Chris Redman |
Atl
|
|
218
|
>220
|
7
|
QB32
|
Troy Smith |
Bal
|
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
RB1
|
LaDainian Tomlinson |
SD
|
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
RB2
|
Adrian Peterson |
Min
|
|
3
|
3
|
0
|
RB3
|
Brian Westbrook |
Phi
|
|
4
|
5
|
1
|
RB4
|
Joseph Addai |
Ind
|
|
6
|
4
|
-2
|
RB5
|
Steven Jackson |
StL
|
|
8
|
7
|
-1
|
RB7
|
Marion Barber |
Dal
|
|
9
|
11
|
2
|
RB6
|
Marshawn Lynch |
Buf
|
|
10
|
8
|
-2
|
RB8
|
Frank Gore |
SF
|
|
11
|
10
|
-1
|
RB9
|
Clinton Portis |
Was
|
|
12
|
13
|
1
|
RB10
|
Larry Johnson |
KC
|
|
14
|
20
|
6
|
RB11
|
Maurice Jones-Drew |
Jac
|
|
16
|
18
|
2
|
RB12
|
Ryan Grant |
GB
|
|
20
|
25
|
5
|
RB13
|
Jamal Lewis |
Cle
|
|
22
|
30
|
8
|
RB14
|
Brandon Jacobs |
NYG
|
|
26
|
39
|
13
|
RB15
|
Ronnie Brown |
Mia
|
|
29
|
21
|
-8
|
RB16
|
Willis McGahee |
Bal
|
|
32
|
36
|
4
|
RB17
|
Earnest Graham |
TB
|
|
33
|
38
|
5
|
RB18
|
Michael Turner |
Atl
|
|
35
|
44
|
9
|
RB19
|
Edgerrin James |
Ari
|
|
37
|
33
|
-4
|
RB20
|
Laurence Maroney |
NE
|
|
38
|
29
|
-9
|
RB21
|
Reggie Bush |
NO
|
|
39
|
42
|
3
|
RB22
|
Willie Parker |
Pit
|
|
41
|
46
|
5
|
RB23
|
Darren McFadden |
Oak
|
|
46
|
63
|
17
|
RB24
|
Selvin Young |
Den
|
|
53
|
45
|
-8
|
RB25
|
Thomas Jones |
NYJ
|
|
55
|
54
|
-1
|
RB26
|
LenDale White |
Ten
|
|
56
|
55
|
-1
|
RB27
|
Jonathan Stewart |
Car
|
|
61
|
64
|
3
|
RB28
|
Matt Forte |
Chi
|
|
63
|
56
|
-7
|
RB29
|
Rudi Johnson |
Cin
|
|
67
|
73
|
6
|
RB30
|
Fred Taylor |
Jac
|
|
70
|
67
|
-3
|
RB31
|
Kevin Smith |
Det
|
|
72
|
83
|
11
|
RB32
|
DeAngelo Williams |
Car
|
|
76
|
61
|
-15
|
RB33
|
Julius Jones |
Sea
|
|
82
|
84
|
2
|
RB34
|
Chester Taylor |
Min
|
|
85
|
86
|
1
|
RB35
|
Rashard Mendenhall |
Pit
|
|
88
|
113
|
25
|
RB36
|
Jerious Norwood |
Atl
|
|
93
|
95
|
2
|
RB37
|
Ahman Green |
Hou
|
|
94
|
93
|
-1
|
RB38
|
Felix Jones |
Dal
|
|
100
|
128
|
28
|
RB39
|
Ray Rice |
Bal
|
|
105
|
104
|
-1
|
RB40
|
Chris Johnson |
Ten
|
|
113
|
99
|
-14
|
RB41
|
Justin Fargas |
Oak
|
|
122
|
145
|
23
|
RB42
|
Leon Washington |
NYJ
|
|
128
|
111
|
-17
|
RB43
|
Ricky Williams |
Mia
|
|
132
|
157
|
25
|
RB44
|
Brandon Jackson |
GB
|
|
135
|
161
|
26
|
RB45
|
Warrick Dunn |
TB
|
|
140
|
134
|
-6
|
RB46
|
Maurice Morris |
Sea
|
|
144
|
112
|
-32
|
RB47
|
Deuce McAllister |
NO
|
|
147
|
164
|
17
|
RB48
|
Derrick Ward |
NYG
|
|
153
|
179
|
26
|
RB49
|
Sammy Morris |
NE
|
|
156
|
131
|
-25
|
RB50
|
Kevin Jones |
Chi
|
|
160
|
162
|
2
|
RB51
|
Ladell Betts |
Was
|
|
166
|
147
|
-19
|
RB52
|
Pierre Thomas |
NO
|
|
171
|
>220
|
54
|
RB53
|
Leonard Weaver |
Sea
|
|
175
|
133
|
-42
|
RB54
|
Kenny Watson |
Cin
|
|
177
|
155
|
-22
|
RB55
|
Tatum Bell |
Det
|
|
184
|
207
|
23
|
RB56
|
Fred Jackson |
Buf
|
|
190
|
139
|
-51
|
RB57
|
Ahmad Bradshaw |
NYG
|
|
198
|
177
|
-21
|
RB58
|
Dominic Rhodes |
Ind
|
|
202
|
182
|
-20
|
RB59
|
LaMont Jordan |
NE
|
|
206
|
193
|
-13
|
RB60
|
Kevin Faulk |
NE
|
|
209
|
>220
|
16
|
RB61
|
Jason Wright |
Cle
|
|
210
|
212
|
2
|
RB62
|
Andre Hall |
Den
|
|
213
|
>220
|
12
|
RB63
|
Chris Perry |
Cin
|
|
216
|
197
|
-19
|
RB64
|
Lorenzo Booker |
Phi
|
|
220
|
218
|
-2
|
RB65
|
Michael Bush |
Oak
|
|
40
|
40
|
0
|
TE1
|
Jason Witten |
Dal
|
|
42
|
48
|
6
|
TE2
|
Kellen Winslow |
Cle
|
|
49
|
50
|
1
|
TE3
|
Antonio Gates |
SD
|
|
59
|
57
|
-2
|
TE4
|
Tony Gonzalez |
KC
|
|
68
|
71
|
3
|
TE5
|
Chris Cooley |
Was
|
|
77
|
69
|
-8
|
TE6
|
Dallas Clark |
Ind
|
|
83
|
115
|
32
|
TE7
|
Owen Daniels |
Hou
|
|
87
|
76
|
-11
|
TE8
|
Jeremy Shockey |
NO
|
|
95
|
98
|
3
|
TE10
|
Vernon Davis |
SF
|
|
99
|
118
|
19
|
TE9
|
Tony Scheffler |
Den
|
|
106
|
92
|
-14
|
TE11
|
Todd Heap |
Bal
|
|
123
|
103
|
-20
|
TE12
|
Heath Miller |
Pit
|
|
127
|
171
|
44
|
TE13
|
Zach Miller |
Oak
|
|
133
|
158
|
25
|
TE14
|
L.J. Smith |
Phi
|
|
136
|
136
|
0
|
TE15
|
Ben Watson |
NE
|
|
145
|
122
|
-23
|
TE16
|
Alge Crumpler |
Ten
|
|
155
|
186
|
31
|
TE17
|
Randy McMichael |
StL
|
|
172
|
175
|
3
|
TE18
|
Donald Lee |
GB
|
|
191
|
152
|
-39
|
TE19
|
Greg Olsen |
Chi
|
|
203
|
185
|
-18
|
TE20
|
Kevin Boss |
NYG
|
|
214
|
>220
|
11
|
TE21
|
Marcedes Lewis |
Jac
|
|
7
|
9
|
2
|
WR1
|
Randy Moss |
NE
|
|
13
|
15
|
2
|
WR2
|
Reggie Wayne |
Ind
|
|
15
|
14
|
-1
|
WR3
|
Terrell Owens |
Dal
|
|
17
|
16
|
-1
|
WR4
|
Braylon Edwards |
Cle
|
|
19
|
19
|
0
|
WR5
|
Larry Fitzgerald |
Ari
|
|
21
|
27
|
6
|
WR6
|
Chad Johnson |
Cin
|
|
23
|
24
|
1
|
WR7
|
T.J. Houshmandzadeh |
Cin
|
|
24
|
22
|
-2
|
WR8
|
Andre Johnson |
Hou
|
|
27
|
32
|
5
|
WR9
|
Torry Holt |
StL
|
|
28
|
23
|
-5
|
WR10
|
Marques Colston |
NO
|
|
30
|
31
|
1
|
WR11
|
Plaxico Burress |
NYG
|
|
34
|
47
|
13
|
WR12
|
Santonio Holmes |
Pit
|
|
36
|
53
|
17
|
WR13
|
Calvin Johnson |
Det
|
|
43
|
28
|
-15
|
WR14
|
Steve Smith |
Car
|
|
44
|
37
|
-7
|
WR15
|
Anquan Boldin |
Ari
|
|
45
|
41
|
-4
|
WR16
|
Roy Williams |
Det
|
|
48
|
51
|
3
|
WR17
|
Greg Jennings |
GB
|
|
50
|
35
|
-15
|
WR18
|
Wesley Welker |
NE
|
|
51
|
52
|
1
|
WR19
|
Brandon Marshall |
Den
|
|
52
|
58
|
6
|
WR20
|
Dwayne Bowe |
KC
|
|
54
|
72
|
18
|
WR21
|
Jerricho Cotchery |
NYJ
|
|
58
|
68
|
10
|
WR22
|
Roddy White |
Atl
|
|
60
|
80
|
20
|
WR23
|
Kevin Curtis |
Phi
|
|
64
|
70
|
6
|
WR24
|
Laveranues Coles |
NYJ
|
|
66
|
66
|
0
|
WR25
|
Lee Evans |
Buf
|
|
69
|
74
|
5
|
WR26
|
Chris Chambers |
SD
|
|
71
|
77
|
6
|
WR27
|
Joey Galloway |
TB
|
|
74
|
62
|
-12
|
WR28
|
Hines Ward |
Pit
|
|
78
|
96
|
18
|
WR29
|
Nate Burleson |
Sea
|
|
79
|
75
|
-4
|
WR30
|
Donald Driver |
GB
|
|
80
|
78
|
-2
|
WR31
|
Santana Moss |
Was
|
|
86
|
85
|
-1
|
WR32
|
Bernard Berrian |
Min
|
|
89
|
101
|
12
|
WR33
|
Reggie Brown |
Phi
|
|
90
|
94
|
4
|
WR34
|
Patrick Crayton |
Dal
|
|
91
|
59
|
-32
|
WR35
|
Marvin Harrison |
Ind
|
|
96
|
140
|
44
|
WR36
|
Ted Ginn |
Mia
|
|
97
|
123
|
26
|
WR37
|
Bryant Johnson |
SF
|
|
101
|
107
|
6
|
WR38
|
Vincent Jackson |
SD
|
|
102
|
100
|
-2
|
WR39
|
Derrick Mason |
Bal
|
|
103
|
114
|
11
|
WR40
|
Sidney Rice |
Min
|
|
107
|
120
|
13
|
WR41
|
Isaac Bruce |
SF
|
|
109
|
89
|
-20
|
WR42
|
Anthony Gonzalez |
Ind
|
|
110
|
106
|
-4
|
WR43
|
Javon Walker |
Oak
|
|
114
|
135
|
21
|
WR44
|
Reggie Williams |
Jac
|
|
116
|
125
|
9
|
WR45
|
D.J. Hackett |
Car
|
|
118
|
105
|
-13
|
WR46
|
Donte Stallworth |
Cle
|
|
119
|
151
|
32
|
WR47
|
Mark Clayton |
Bal
|
|
120
|
148
|
28
|
WR48
|
Devin Hester |
Chi
|
|
124
|
176
|
52
|
WR49
|
Justin Gage |
Ten
|
|
125
|
>220
|
100
|
WR50
|
James Jones |
GB
|
|
129
|
169
|
40
|
WR51
|
Drew Bennett |
StL
|
|
130
|
204
|
74
|
WR52
|
Kevin Walter |
Hou
|
|
134
|
192
|
58
|
WR53
|
Laurent Robinson |
Atl
|
|
137
|
173
|
36
|
WR54
|
Muhsin Muhammad |
Car
|
|
141
|
137
|
-4
|
WR55
|
Ronald Curry |
Oak
|
|
146
|
>220
|
79
|
WR56
|
Derek Hagan |
Mia
|
|
150
|
172
|
22
|
WR57
|
Robert Meachem |
NO
|
|
157
|
>220
|
68
|
WR58
|
David Patten |
NO
|
|
161
|
>220
|
64
|
WR59
|
Michael Clayton |
TB
|
|
162
|
126
|
-36
|
WR60
|
Jerry Porter |
Jac
|
|
168
|
143
|
-25
|
WR61
|
Deion Branch |
Sea
|
|
173
|
>220
|
52
|
WR62
|
Brandon Stokley |
Den
|
|
178
|
>220
|
47
|
WR63
|
Demetrius Williams |
Bal
|
|
180
|
>220
|
45
|
WR64
|
Devard Darling |
KC
|
|
185
|
97
|
-88
|
WR65
|
Bobby Engram |
Sea
|
|
193
|
156
|
-37
|
WR66
|
Darrell Jackson |
Den
|
|
200
|
>220
|
25
|
WR67
|
Michael Jenkins |
Atl
|
|
204
|
159
|
-45
|
WR68
|
Jabar Gaffney |
NE
|
|
211
|
196
|
-15
|
WR69
|
Antwaan Randle El |
Was
|















