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The Perfect Draft - 12-team League

  Posted 8/13 by David Dodds, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

This is the first of a five-part series. The other versions will be 10-team, 14-team, Auction and WCOFF (PPR) formats. They are all expected to be released within 7 days.

I started penning this article in 2002 to put my predraft thoughts to paper. Like most things in life, I find I do my best when I plan to succeed. This article is my attempt at that. I work hard at doing projections every year. At Footballguys, we also put together the most comprehensive ADP lists (from 5+ sources). So the information about value is certainly readily available. The trick to having a perfect draft though is to anticipate those "pockets of value" and build your team so that you get the lion's share of these guys.

There is not one way to have a perfect draft. In fact, the biggest criticism I often get is that I am willing to wait on QB and/or TE in a lot of drafts. Many drafters show me teams where they grab a guy like Romo early and then knock the rest of the draft out of the park. That's definitely possible. And against weak competition, it is also the preferred gameplan.

This article assumes fairly educated drafters. You need to decide whether your league is full of sharks, guppies or a combination of both. Count the number of Footballguys subscriptions and compare that to the number of guys crossing off players from their magazine cheatsheet to get a feel for this if you really are unsure. I state this here, because against softer competition the shark move is to grab the quality QBs and TEs too. You should do this because it's nearly assured you will also get many great players to slide to you at RB and WR. Against great competition, reaching for a player at the wrong time can quickly dismantle your draft and leave you missing the key "pockets of value" that can help your chances at winning.

Before we can have the "Perfect Draft", let's define our measure of success. After the draft, your team should have these qualities:

  1. Against multiple projection sets, your team always grades out as one of the best teams
  2. You secured a great number of players that will outperform their draft position.
  3. You have quality depth (in the right places) to allow for postdraft trades.
  4. The majority of owners recognize that you have a team that should easily reach the playoffs.

These aren't absolutes, but I list them here so we know what we are trying to build.

Let's start with the two basic principles of Value Based Drafting (VBD). I will expound on them as we go through this.

  • All Players Have Value
    Don't love anyone. Don't hate anyone. Get players that will significantly outperform their draft position and you will build a winning team.

  • Understand What the Average Guy Thinks
    You may believe someone will be the 10th best WR, but if everybody else does not then you need to wait to maximize value.

If you don't follow these principles, you will not have a perfect draft. If you believe rookie WRs are always bad or drafting anyone over 30 is too big of an injury risk, then you will not have the perfect draft. Throw away the biases. Let value guide your draft. Let others succumb to prejudices and generalities. You are here to win your league. And you do that by getting value with every pick.

How do we define value? Value Based Drafting (VBD) has shown us that we can compare unlike positions for comparative value. The cornerstone of VBD starts with solid projections. And these projections can be manipulated to form Top 200+ lists. I have provided my own Top 220 list at the end of this article (based on my projections) that has been sorted by position. I have highlighted favorable differences in green to indicate players that may be bargains on draft day.


Let's have the perfect draft.

The goal is to get you the best possible team and to make sure you don't overpay for players that can still be had a few rounds later. What I look for are players that I project significantly better than where they are being drafted. The positional analysis tracks to my projections.

This article assumes a 12 team league using scoring that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Def and 1 PK. Fantasy points are calculated as follows:

  • Passing TDs = 4 points
  • Interceptions = -1 points
  • Rushing/receiving TDs = 6 points
  • Passing yardage = 0.05 pts per yard (1 pt per 20 yards)
  • Rushing/receiving yardage = 0.10 pts per yard (1 pt per 10 yards)

Quarterbacks

With history as our guide, we know the top QBs are almost always drafted too early. And this makes sense. The QB position generally scores the most points so fantasy players want a good one. But since most leagues only require one starting QB there is little pressure on the remaining QBs after the first six or seven are gone.

Grabbing quarterbacks early seems to be very much in vogue this year after Tom Brady's 2007 historical season. Most owners that had Tom Brady made the playoffs last year regardless of the other players they took and generally independent of scoring systems. He was that much better than everyone else at the position.

Going into 2008, Brady has all the weapons back and a coach likely still wanting to punish every other team on the field by scoring early and often. If you think Brady will throw for 40+ TDs, he has to be high on your draft board. And by high, I mean top 6 high. I personally expect him to throw about 40 TDs and because of this he is the number 5 player on my Top 200 list. But history says predicting 40+ TDs for a QB is bordering on insanity. It's likely a losing proposition despite how great Brady was last year. Weighing this into things and knowing there are sweet spots to draft quality QBs at a severe discount later points me to passing on Brady unless he is still there at pick 10 or later.

The other top QBs that people like are going way too early for my liking. Just scratch off
Peyton Manning (ADP = 12), Tony Romo (ADP = 17), Drew Brees (ADP = 26), Carson Palmer (ADP = 34), Ben Roethlisberger (ADP = 43) and Derek Anderson (ADP = 49) from your cheatsheets. Someone will overpay for every one of these players in virtually every league across America.

Don't be that owner. If you do, you will not have the perfect draft. Resist the temptation and let others grab these stars. How can I say that with such conviction? Because draft after draft, I have seen the same thing happen. People overpay for the top quarterbacks, and then a lull takes place before a mad rush ensues for the quality quarterbacks left. The guys you need are in this second group and by waiting you will secure the running back and wide receiver talent needed to field a dominate team.

Quarterback Sweet Spot #1

I see these three players in this group:

  • Donovan McNabb (ADP = 60)
  • Jay Cutler (ADP = 79)
  • David Garrard (ADP = 87).

Let's look deeper into these players:

  • Donovan McNabb, Phi (Value = 62, ADP = 60) - I list McNabb with these players, because his ADP varies greatly by draft. Sometimes he goes early and other times he slides a great deal. I would pass on him at pick 60, but he represents great value around pick 70. The Eagles passing offense has averaged 580 passing attempts, 4072 yards and 25 TDs over the last 3 years. McNabb's ADP has more to do with the possibility he will miss time to injury than what people expect he will do in the games he starts.

  • Jay Cutler, Den (Value = 65, ADP = 79) - Cutler has become a very capable QB in just 2 years and has an elite WR in Brandon Marshall. Marshall will miss at least the first 2 NFL games (due to a suspension from Goodell), but has been very impressive in camp this season. Combined with a suspect running game, it's easy to see Cutler (and the passing game) having an expanded role this season.

  • David Garrard, Jac (Value = 73, ADP = 87) - In just 12 games, Garrard ranked as the 16th best QB in 2007. He is the unquestioned starter on a team that is on the rise. Including playoff games, Garrard scored over 16 fantasy points in all but two of his games (12 of 14). Contrast that with Eli Manning who managed to score 16+ fantasy points in just 9 of his 20 games last season. Let others target Eli Manning around pick 82. You can pick up Garrard at a similar cost and have a player who you can count on week in and out.

Your goal in drafts this year is try and secure at least one quarterback from this sweet spot. And here is how you do that. Wait until three of the following players get selected among this group:

  • Donovan McNabb (ADP = 60)
  • Matt Hasselbeck (ADP = 65)
  • Jay Cutler (ADP = 79)
  • Marc Bulger (ADP = 81)
  • Eli Manning (ADP = 82)
  • David Garrard (ADP = 87)
  • Brett Favre (ADP = 88).

Those are your triggers. When three are off the board, target QB with your next selection. In most leagues this first pick should be around the end of the 7th round (or early eighth round). Leagues vary though so pay more attention to the triggers than the actual round.

Quarterback Sweet Spot #2

A second spot emerges after most teams have selected their quarterback. This sweet spot is created because the owners that selected the early QB stars like Brady, Manning, Romo, etc now are scrambling to add RB and WRs in these rounds.

This second sweet spot includes these players

  • Vince Young (ADP = 130)
  • Philip Rivers (ADP = 110)
  • Aaron Rodgers (ADP = 117)
  • Matt Schaub (ADP = 119)
  • Jason Campbell (ADP = 129).

Let's look at their situations more closely:

  • Vince Young, Ten (Value = 92, ADP = 130) in the 10th round or later - He runs for too many yards to discount him too much in my opinion. He grades out as QB 13 and I have him throwing just 2,734 yards and 15 TDs. Because of his legs, he can easily add 500 yards and 4-5 scores on the ground if healthy. He is no danger of losing his starting spot and is a very high upside pick (with minimal downside) in my opinion.

  • Philip Rivers, SD (Value = 98, ADP = 110) in the 10th round or later - Not a glamorous selection, but Rivers has two capable WRs, an elite TE (when healthy) and an elite RB that can catch the ball. Rivers is a very safe QB selection with minimal downside.

  • Aaron Rodgers, GB (Value = 104, ADP = 117) in the 11th round or later - I am not going to suggest that Aaron Rodgers is Brett Favre, but as quarterback of the Green Bay Packers he is blessed with a lot of surrounding talent in 2008. Any QB would love to have Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones and Jordy Nelson to throw the ball to. Favre finished as the 8th best QB in 2007 while throwing for 4,157 yards and 28 TDs. Rodgers, filling in for an injured Favre in week 13, managed 201 yards passing, 30 yards rushing and 1 passing TD in about 2 and ½ quarters of play. At his current draft position, Rodgers represents all upside if he can stay healthy.

  • Matt Schaub, Hou ( Value = 112, ADP = 119) in the 11th round or later - The Houston QBs (Schaub and Rosenfels) combined for 3,925 passing yards and 24 TDs last year. If Schaub stays healthy in 2008, he should easily surpass his ADP.

  • Jason Campbell, Was (Value = 115, ADP = 129) in the 11th round or later - Sometimes it's all about the schedule. And the Redskins have a dream schedule in 2008 playing a lot of opponents that are simply horrible at defending the pass. The Redskins also bolstered their passing attack in 2008 by adding Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly and Fred Davis through the NFL draft. Make no mistake about it. Jason Campbell will finally have the weapons he needs and will benefit from a schedule that should ensure success. In just thirteen games in 2007, Campbell finished as the 18th best QB. With more weapons and an easier schedule, Campbell is flying way below the radar this season.

A deep sleeper at quarterback is Alex Smith, SF. He is being drafted very late (ADP = 220), but could benefit from newly hired offensive coordinator Mike Martz. It's no secret Mike likes to throw the ball a lot and he has made very average quarterbacks look great running his schemes. All reports are that Shaun Hill can't digest the complex Martz playbook and the battle is between Smith and J.T. O'Sullivan to start. As bad as Alex has been, he should still be able to hold off O'Sullivan this season. So if you can afford a late roster spot, Alex Smith might be worth stashing away this season.

Running Backs

The league is changing in front of our eyes. The days of most teams having a power-back to shoulder 75-80% of the load have been replaced with running back by committees (RBBC). The NFL is a copycat league and general managers consistently tweak their teams when another has success with a certain formula. So when some of the most dominant teams in the league are using RBBC, we have something more than a coincidence. We have a blueprint that other teams are likely to follow going forward.

In years past, the goal was to try and lock up RBs with your first two to three selections. There were not enough RBs to go around so hoarding these backs was the shark move. It forced other owners to reach in the middle rounds for players that would rarely yield production unless the starter was injured or benched. But with so many teams running RBBC these days, supply on the second, third and fourth tier backs has actually increased.

Instead of risking your second and third picks on "lesser backs" mired in RBBCs, I believe you will construct your best fantasy roster by selecting your RB1 starter in the first round and then move on to the elite WRs (that do not come with question marks). In my opinion, drafting RBs for value in rounds 4 through 8 should yield the optimal team.

Here are the other RBs that I would target for value:

  • Edgerrin James, Ari (Value = 35, ADP = 44) in the 4th round or later - James has minimal competition for carries in Arizona so he should easily surpass his draft position. He finished as the 10th best fantasy back last year and should put up similar numbers in 2008.

  • Darren McFadden, Oak (Value = 41, ADP = 46) in the mid 4th round or later - He is wowing everyone in camp and could have a giant role within the Oakland offense. He will split carries with Fargas early in the season limiting his upside, but should be active in the passing game.

  • Selvin Young, Den (Value = 46, ADP = 63) in the 5th round or later - Denver's RBs are falling like flies so Selvin Young will get a long look this season to be the guy running in the successful zone-blocking schemes.

  • DeAngelo Williams, Car (Value = 72, ADP = 83) in the 7th round or later - When the team let DeShaun Foster leave via free agency, it was thought Williams would take over as the starting RB for Carolina. But the Panthers chose Oregon standout Jonathan Stewart with their first pick so now the RB situation is muddied. I expect DeAngelo to be the better fantasy player for 2008, but both Williams and Stewart will see duties in a likely full-blown RBBC. But in the seventh round, you are getting a quality player in an offense that loves to run the ball. Stewart's lingering toe injury could also be just the break Williams needs to grab a bigger role early in this offense.

  • Jerious Norwood, Atl (Value = 88, ADP = 113) in the 9th round or later - He has shown good skill in his limited carries each of the last two seasons averaging 6.2 yards per rushing attempt. Michael Turner was brought in via free agency, but could falter with a bigger workload. Should the door open, Norwood could represent great value in the middle rounds.

  • Ray Rice, Bal (Value = 100, ADP = 128) in the 10th round or later - McGahee just underwent arthroscopic surgery and will likely miss the rest of the preseason at a minimum. Meanwhile Ray Rice has looked fantastic in camp. Things can change fast in the NFL and Rice could have a huge role in this offense starting this season.

  • Sammy Morris, NE (Value = 153, ADP = 179) in the 14th round or later - He filled in nicely for the injured Laurence Maroney before succumbing to injuries himself in 2007. Even in a RBBC, Morris could have decent value as a TD vulture within this high-powered offense. Maroney, in his short career, has not shown he is durable at all. And in the New England offense, you just need to get on the field to be productive.

  • Fred Jackson, Buf (Value = 184, ADP = 207) in the 17th round or later - He showed good skill last year when given the opportunity. It would likely take a Marshawn Lynch injury for him to get significant playing time, but at this price it's worth the gamble.

Wide Receivers

The biggest key to having a great wide receiver corps is implementing the QB and RB strategies from steps one and two above. By waiting at QB until round seven or later and grabbing an elite RB in round one, you position yourself to nab the top talent at wide receiver in rounds two through six. At the end of round six, you should have 2-3 RBs and 3-4 WRs. By the end of the draft, you should have 7 to 10 WRs on your squad. That may seem excessive, but some of these players will likely bust and depth at WR allows you maximum flexibility to trade during the season.

Although a team constructed like this may look slightly weak at RB2, it will provide you with a powerhouse weekly roster by locking down great WR talent. This will allow you to draft for value the entire draft and stockpile talent that likely can be used to trade for a RB that breaks out this season. Remember that running backs Ryan Grant, Earnest Graham, Kenny Watson and Justin Fargas all likely went undrafted last season, yet provided much firepower to teams in need.

If any of these players are still around, I would take them before a top WR in round 2:

  • RB Marion Barber
  • RB Marshawn Lynch
  • RB Frank Gore
  • RB Clinton Portis
  • RB Larry Johnson
  • QB Tom Brady.

But unless you are drafting at 12 or 13, it's unlikely any of these players will make it to you. If that's the case, look to select a premier wide receiver in the 2nd round from among this list:

  • Randy Moss
  • Reggie Wayne
  • Terrell Owens
  • Braylon Edwards
  • Larry Fitzgerald.

Here are the other WRs that I would target for value:

  • Chad Johnson, Cin (Value = 21, ADP =27) in the 3rd round or later - The Bengals are still soft on defense and let go of WR Chris Henry this offseason. That means the team will likely be playing from behind often and have fewer receivers to catch those passes. Chad Johnson should have a productive year.

  • Santonio Holmes, Pit (Value = 34, ADP = 47) in the middle of the 4th round or later - He finished as the 18th best WR while only playing in 13 games. And he did all of this on just 52 catches. He is among the best deep threats in the game today. Look for him to improve in 2008 as he hits his stride as a third-year wide receiver.

  • Calvin Johnson, Det (Value = 36, ADP = 53) in the middle of the 4th round or later - I have a feeling we are going to see Calvin become an elite player in 2008. Every camp report out of Detroit is glowing about his receiving skills and how much better he looks. And with Roy Williams also a threat, Johnson should get softer coverage than expected against someone of his skill-set

  • Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ (Value = 54, ADP = 72) in the 6th round or later - In my opinion, here is the winner with the Brett Favre signing. He surpassed Coles production last year and is poised to take a big step forward scoring more TDs this season with improved QB play from Favre.

  • Kevin Curtis, Phi (Value = 60, ADP = 80) in the 7th round or later - He should be McNabb's favorite target again this season. Last year he finished as the 17th best WR despite McNabb playing just over 13 games. With another year of chemistry, Curtis should complete more of his targets to catches.

  • Nate Burleson, Sea (Value = 78, ADP = 96) in the 8th round or later - This is all about opportunity. He should lock down the #1 or #2 WR spot for the Seahawks (while Deion Branch and Bobby Engram fight to come back from injuries) which should translate to an increase in targets and production.

  • Reggie Brown, Phi (Value = 89, ADP = 101) in the 9th round or later - This is another opportunity play. We know the Eagles will throw the ball a lot and someone has to catch those passes.

  • Ted Ginn, Mia (Value = 96, ADP = 140) in the 11th round or later - He has the inside track to be the #1 WR in Miami and should be more successful in his second year. He is among the safest picks at wide receiver this season and should easily surpass his draft position.

  • Bryant Johnson, SF (Value = 97, ADP = 123) in the 11th round or later - This is just a complete unknown situation. Johnson was buried behind Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin in Arizona so it's difficult to assess how well he will do in San Francisco. One thing is for sure though. He will be playing for OC Mike Martz who will use him often. I expect Bryant Johnson to emerge this year in the pass-friendly system that Martz will employ.

Other WR Value Picks:

  • Mark Clayton, Bal (Value = 119, ADP = 151) in the 12th round or later.
  • Devin Hester, Chi (Value = 120, ADP = 148) in the 12th round or later.
  • Justin Gage, Ten (Value = 124, ADP = 176) in the 13th round or later
  • James Jones, GB (Value = 125, ADP > 220) in the 14th round or later
  • Drew Bennett, StL (Value = 129, ADP = 169) in the 14th round or later
  • Kevin Walter, Hou (Value = 130, ADP = 204) in the 14th round or later
  • Laurent Robinson, Atl (Value = 134, ADP = 192) in the 14th round or later
  • Derek Hagan, Mia (Value = 146, ADP >220) in the 15th round or later
  • David Patten, NO (Value = 157, ADP >220) in the 15th round or later
  • Michael Clayton, TB (Value = 161, ADP > 220) in the 15th round or later

Some other WRs will undoubtedly slip in your drafts besides the above targeted bargain list. In recap grab 3-4 receivers in rounds 2 through 6 and then wait for exceptional value to emerge at WR because it always does.

Tight Ends

This is a strange year for tight ends. Antonio Gates generally heads this list, but he is currently injured and it's unknown if he will be able to play in week 1. This has created a logjam of sorts at the top spots with Jason Witten (ADP = 40), Kellen Winslow (ADP = 48) and Gates (ADP = 50) and all going in the fourth round or before. With as deep as the tight ends are this year, I think it would be a huge mistake to target any of the top 3 TEs. In fact, most of the big names at this position should be avoided due to the depth at the position.

Go ahead and scratch off these names:

  • Jason Witten
  • Kellen Winslow
  • Antonio Gates
  • Tony Gonzalez
  • Chris Cooley

All will be taken at a time when it's imperative to stock up key RB and WR talent.

But fear not. There are always bargains at the tight end position late in a draft. In fact once the top 7-8 names come off the board, there is minimal pressure on the TE position the rest of the draft. It's no surprise that since TEs catch a relatively small amount of passes, primarily on short and intermediate routes (again, excluding the top tier guys), there usually isn't a great deal of variance between the fourth-best TE and the 12th best, witness:

  • 2007 - 4th (141 points), 12th (79 points) = 62 points difference (3.88 per game)
  • 2006 - 4th (113 points), 12th (81 points) = 32 points difference (2.00 per game)
  • 2005 - 4th (119 points), 12th (77 points) = 42 points difference (2.63 per game)
  • 2004 - 4th (113 points), 12th (69 points) = 44 points difference (2.75 per game)
  • 2003 -- 4th (74 points), 12th (65 points) = 9 points difference (0.56 per game)
  • 5 YR AVG -- 4th (112 points), 12th (74 points) = 31 points difference (2.38 per game)

So ultimately, once you get past the big TEs, you're really debating over a point or two per week (which is why it is wise to just wait until the later rounds to select a TE).

The tight end that I will be targeting in most of my drafts this year is Owen Daniels, Hou (Value = 83, ADP = 115) in the 9th round or later. It's not a sexy pick, but I expect he will be solid all year long. He caught 63 passes last season and just needs to increase his TDs to be a very good player.

Here are the other TEs that I believe will have exceptional value in the draft:

  • Zach Miller, Oak (Value = 127, ADP = 171) in the 14th round or better - This kid has great skills and should be used a lot as a dump off from JaMarcus Russell. Look for him to emerge in 2008.

  • L.J. Smith, Phi (Value = 143, ADP = 213) in the 14th round or later - It's crazy to think L.J. Smith could be around this late in drafts while playing for a team that loves to feature the tight end. LJ finished as the 9th best TE in both 2005 and 2006 (his last healthy seasons). He missed 6 games in 2007 and was never quite right. At this price, L.J. Smith represents virtually no risk and could easily return as a top 10 tight end if he stays healthy.

Place Kickers

Who cares right? Well...kind of right. Definitely nothing you should even look at until round 14 of your draft. But all drafts are different. In leagues that go after kickers early, just wait. You can get an adequate PK three rounds after every other owner has their first.

In leagues that slough this position until real late, look towards the top of the kicker list in round 14. If your top kicker is available then draft him. Suffice it to say that in a lot of leagues now, people wait too long to take their kickers. As a rule of thumb, you can generally maximize kicker value by taking the fifth to eighth kicker off the board. In waiver wire friendly leagues (most), don't be afraid to draft just one kicker and add others as necessary during the season to cover the bye weeks and/or exploit matchups.

I am targeting these value guys should kickers go too early:

  • Josh Scobee, Jac (Value = 187, ADP = 211) in the 17th round or later.
  • Jeff Reed, Pit (Value = 196, ADP > 220) in the 18th round or later.

Defenses

Scoring systems generally come into play and define when defenses are taken. I suggest you wait until round 12 to assess what to do about this position. If San Diego or Minnesota is still on the board, grab them. If these teams are gone though, I would wait until late in the draft and implement Chase Stuart's suggested combo of the Buffalo Bills and New Orleans Saints. Both can be selected very late in the draft.

If roster spots are hard to come by, I would target these value defenses late in the draft:

  • Philadelphia (Value = 186, ADP = 198) in the 17th round
  • Oakland (Value = 192, ADP > 220) in the 18th round
  • Buffalo (Value = 195, ADP = 217) in the 18th round

Because owners rank defenses so differently, you can generally get good value just by waiting for the value to emerge.

Another winning strategy to deploy after the draft for defenses is simply to look two games ahead in the waiver process. Most teams will have one or two defenses meaning that half of the defenses are available as free agent pick ups each week. By looking two to three weeks ahead at who will be playing Atlanta, Miami, Oakland, Kansas City and Chicago, you likely can find a cheap defense that should perform well against subpar offenses. Drop this defense after their "quality game" so that you can continue to pick up other defenses that will have good weeks. Because of this strategy, I advise you to draft just one quality defense and look to play matchups the rest of the way. Every year two or three defenses are predicted to be terrible but end up playing great.


Putting It All Together

  1. Draft a running back in round 1. Your draft spot will determine who you are able to get. If you are lucky enough to have a shot at two of the top 10 running backs, order a round of drinks for your leaguemates and find a good engraver for the trophy.

  2. Use rounds 2-6 to lock up talent at WR and to get an additional RB. Don't reach for RB2. It's OK to start the year a little weak at this position as long as you continue to draft for outstanding value. This value can be packaged later to solidify the RB2 spot on your squad for your playoff push.

  3. Look to grab Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler or David Garrard around round 8 after key triggers have indicated these guys will be selected soon. Add Vince Young, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers and/or Jason Campbell for depth at the position in rounds 10 or 11.

  4. Slough TE until about 9-10 have been selected and then pick Owen Daniels with confidence.

  5. Add value at QB, RB, WR and TE in the middle rounds to protect bye weeks and give yourself a chance to trade off talent to bolster your RB squad as the season progresses.

  6. Slough defense unless San Diego or Minnesota is still available in round 12. If you are unable to get a top 3 defense at the right price, look towards implementing the DTBC combo of Buffalo and New Orleans.

  7. Slough kicker unless a top one is available (Vinatieri or Folk) when you get to round 14. Generally waiting to select the 5th to 8th kicker leads to getting a great player at a good draft spot.

Well that is it folks. Hope you all do well in your coming drafts. Remember, the key is not to just follow the Top 200 list but to see where it differs substantially from average drafts. This is how you get value with every pick. And value is how you build winning fantasy teams.


Top 220 List Sorted by Position

Rank
ADP
Diff
Pos
Player
Team
111
91
-20
Def1
Minnesota
Min
117
90
-27
Def2
San Diego
SD
138
108
-30
Def3
New England
NE
143
124
-19
Def4
Jacksonville
Jac
148
116
-32
Def5
Dallas
Dal
154
121
-33
Def6
Pittsburgh
Pit
158
109
-49
Def7
Chicago
Chi
165
127
-38
Def8
New York Giants
NYG
169
146
-23
Def9
Baltimore
Bal
174
154
-20
Def10
Seattle
Sea
176
168
-8
Def11
Tampa Bay
TB
179
144
-35
Def12
Green Bay
GB
181
160
-21
Def13
Indianapolis
Ind
186
198
12
Def14
Philadelphia
Phi
192
>220
33
Def15
Oakland
Oak
195
217
22
Def16
Buffalo
Buf
207
206
-1
Def17
Tennessee
Ten
215
219
4
Def18
Washington
Was
149
141
-8
PK1
Nick Folk
Dal
151
150
-1
PK2
Adam Vinatieri
Ind
159
166
7
PK3
Nate Kaeding
SD
163
142
-21
PK4
Stephen Gostkowski
NE
182
170
-12
PK5
Shayne Graham
Cin
187
211
24
PK6
Josh Scobee
Jac
188
191
3
PK7
Phil Dawson
Cle
194
163
-31
PK8
Mason Crosby
GB
196
>220
29
PK9
Jeff Reed
Pit
199
203
4
PK10
Neil Rackers
Ari
201
167
-34
PK11
Josh Brown
StL
205
199
-6
PK12
Rob Bironas
Ten
212
>220
13
PK13
Kris Brown
Hou
217
>220
8
PK14
Matt Prater
Den
219
>220
6
PK15
David Akers
Phi
5
6
1
QB1
Tom Brady
NE
18
12
-6
QB2
Peyton Manning
Ind
25
17
-8
QB3
Tony Romo
Dal
31
26
-5
QB4
Drew Brees
NO
47
34
-13
QB5
Carson Palmer
Cin
57
43
-14
QB6
Ben Roethlisberger
Pit
62
60
-2
QB7
Donovan McNabb
Phi
65
79
14
QB8
Jay Cutler
Den
73
87
14
QB9
David Garrard
Jac
75
49
-26
QB10
Derek Anderson
Cle
81
81
0
QB11
Marc Bulger
StL
84
65
-19
QB12
Matt Hasselbeck
Sea
92
130
38
QB13
Vince Young
Ten
98
110
12
QB14
Philip Rivers
SD
104
117
13
QB15
Aaron Rodgers
GB
108
82
-26
QB16
Eli Manning
NYG
112
119
7
QB17
Matt Schaub
Hou
115
129
14
QB18
Jason Campbell
Was
121
102
-19
QB19
Jake Delhomme
Car
126
132
6
QB20
Jon Kitna
Det
131
88
-43
QB21
Brett Favre
NYJ
139
183
44
QB22
Tarvaris Jackson
Min
142
165
23
QB23
Jeff Garcia
TB
152
181
29
QB24
JaMarcus Russell
Oak
164
188
24
QB25
Trent Edwards
Buf
167
149
-18
QB26
Matt Leinart
Ari
170
220
50
QB27
Alex Smith
SF
183
>220
42
QB28
Chad Pennington
Mia
189
>220
36
QB29
Brodie Croyle
KC
197
>220
28
QB30
Rex Grossman
Chi
208
>220
17
QB31
Chris Redman
Atl
218
>220
7
QB32
Troy Smith
Bal
1
1
0
RB1
LaDainian Tomlinson
SD
2
2
0
RB2
Adrian Peterson
Min
3
3
0
RB3
Brian Westbrook
Phi
4
5
1
RB4
Joseph Addai
Ind
6
4
-2
RB5
Steven Jackson
StL
8
7
-1
RB7
Marion Barber
Dal
9
11
2
RB6
Marshawn Lynch
Buf
10
8
-2
RB8
Frank Gore
SF
11
10
-1
RB9
Clinton Portis
Was
12
13
1
RB10
Larry Johnson
KC
14
20
6
RB11
Maurice Jones-Drew
Jac
16
18
2
RB12
Ryan Grant
GB
20
25
5
RB13
Jamal Lewis
Cle
22
30
8
RB14
Brandon Jacobs
NYG
26
39
13
RB15
Ronnie Brown
Mia
29
21
-8
RB16
Willis McGahee
Bal
32
36
4
RB17
Earnest Graham
TB
33
38
5
RB18
Michael Turner
Atl
35
44
9
RB19
Edgerrin James
Ari
37
33
-4
RB20
Laurence Maroney
NE
38
29
-9
RB21
Reggie Bush
NO
39
42
3
RB22
Willie Parker
Pit
41
46
5
RB23
Darren McFadden
Oak
46
63
17
RB24
Selvin Young
Den
53
45
-8
RB25
Thomas Jones
NYJ
55
54
-1
RB26
LenDale White
Ten
56
55
-1
RB27
Jonathan Stewart
Car
61
64
3
RB28
Matt Forte
Chi
63
56
-7
RB29
Rudi Johnson
Cin
67
73
6
RB30
Fred Taylor
Jac
70
67
-3
RB31
Kevin Smith
Det
72
83
11
RB32
DeAngelo Williams
Car
76
61
-15
RB33
Julius Jones
Sea
82
84
2
RB34
Chester Taylor
Min
85
86
1
RB35
Rashard Mendenhall
Pit
88
113
25
RB36
Jerious Norwood
Atl
93
95
2
RB37
Ahman Green
Hou
94
93
-1
RB38
Felix Jones
Dal
100
128
28
RB39
Ray Rice
Bal
105
104
-1
RB40
Chris Johnson
Ten
113
99
-14
RB41
Justin Fargas
Oak
122
145
23
RB42
Leon Washington
NYJ
128
111
-17
RB43
Ricky Williams
Mia
132
157
25
RB44
Brandon Jackson
GB
135
161
26
RB45
Warrick Dunn
TB
140
134
-6
RB46
Maurice Morris
Sea
144
112
-32
RB47
Deuce McAllister
NO
147
164
17
RB48
Derrick Ward
NYG
153
179
26
RB49
Sammy Morris
NE
156
131
-25
RB50
Kevin Jones
Chi
160
162
2
RB51
Ladell Betts
Was
166
147
-19
RB52
Pierre Thomas
NO
171
>220
54
RB53
Leonard Weaver
Sea
175
133
-42
RB54
Kenny Watson
Cin
177
155
-22
RB55
Tatum Bell
Det
184
207
23
RB56
Fred Jackson
Buf
190
139
-51
RB57
Ahmad Bradshaw
NYG
198
177
-21
RB58
Dominic Rhodes
Ind
202
182
-20
RB59
LaMont Jordan
NE
206
193
-13
RB60
Kevin Faulk
NE
209
>220
16
RB61
Jason Wright
Cle
210
212
2
RB62
Andre Hall
Den
213
>220
12
RB63
Chris Perry
Cin
216
197
-19
RB64
Lorenzo Booker
Phi
220
218
-2
RB65
Michael Bush
Oak
40
40
0
TE1
Jason Witten
Dal
42
48
6
TE2
Kellen Winslow
Cle
49
50
1
TE3
Antonio Gates
SD
59
57
-2
TE4
Tony Gonzalez
KC
68
71
3
TE5
Chris Cooley
Was
77
69
-8
TE6
Dallas Clark
Ind
83
115
32
TE7
Owen Daniels
Hou
87
76
-11
TE8
Jeremy Shockey
NO
95
98
3
TE10
Vernon Davis
SF
99
118
19
TE9
Tony Scheffler
Den
106
92
-14
TE11
Todd Heap
Bal
123
103
-20
TE12
Heath Miller
Pit
127
171
44
TE13
Zach Miller
Oak
133
158
25
TE14
L.J. Smith
Phi
136
136
0
TE15
Ben Watson
NE
145
122
-23
TE16
Alge Crumpler
Ten
155
186
31
TE17
Randy McMichael
StL
172
175
3
TE18
Donald Lee
GB
191
152
-39
TE19
Greg Olsen
Chi
203
185
-18
TE20
Kevin Boss
NYG
214
>220
11
TE21
Marcedes Lewis
Jac
7
9
2
WR1
Randy Moss
NE
13
15
2
WR2
Reggie Wayne
Ind
15
14
-1
WR3
Terrell Owens
Dal
17
16
-1
WR4
Braylon Edwards
Cle
19
19
0
WR5
Larry Fitzgerald
Ari
21
27
6
WR6
Chad Johnson
Cin
23
24
1
WR7
T.J. Houshmandzadeh
Cin
24
22
-2
WR8
Andre Johnson
Hou
27
32
5
WR9
Torry Holt
StL
28
23
-5
WR10
Marques Colston
NO
30
31
1
WR11
Plaxico Burress
NYG
34
47
13
WR12
Santonio Holmes
Pit
36
53
17
WR13
Calvin Johnson
Det
43
28
-15
WR14
Steve Smith
Car
44
37
-7
WR15
Anquan Boldin
Ari
45
41
-4
WR16
Roy Williams
Det
48
51
3
WR17
Greg Jennings
GB
50
35
-15
WR18
Wesley Welker
NE
51
52
1
WR19
Brandon Marshall
Den
52
58
6
WR20
Dwayne Bowe
KC
54
72
18
WR21
Jerricho Cotchery
NYJ
58
68
10
WR22
Roddy White
Atl
60
80
20
WR23
Kevin Curtis
Phi
64
70
6
WR24
Laveranues Coles
NYJ
66
66
0
WR25
Lee Evans
Buf
69
74
5
WR26
Chris Chambers
SD
71
77
6
WR27
Joey Galloway
TB
74
62
-12
WR28
Hines Ward
Pit
78
96
18
WR29
Nate Burleson
Sea
79
75
-4
WR30
Donald Driver
GB
80
78
-2
WR31
Santana Moss
Was
86
85
-1
WR32
Bernard Berrian
Min
89
101
12
WR33
Reggie Brown
Phi
90
94
4
WR34
Patrick Crayton
Dal
91
59
-32
WR35
Marvin Harrison
Ind
96
140
44
WR36
Ted Ginn
Mia
97
123
26
WR37
Bryant Johnson
SF
101
107
6
WR38
Vincent Jackson
SD
102
100
-2
WR39
Derrick Mason
Bal
103
114
11
WR40
Sidney Rice
Min
107
120
13
WR41
Isaac Bruce
SF
109
89
-20
WR42
Anthony Gonzalez
Ind
110
106
-4
WR43
Javon Walker
Oak
114
135
21
WR44
Reggie Williams
Jac
116
125
9
WR45
D.J. Hackett
Car
118
105
-13
WR46
Donte Stallworth
Cle
119
151
32
WR47
Mark Clayton
Bal
120
148
28
WR48
Devin Hester
Chi
124
176
52
WR49
Justin Gage
Ten
125
>220
100
WR50
James Jones
GB
129
169
40
WR51
Drew Bennett
StL
130
204
74
WR52
Kevin Walter
Hou
134
192
58
WR53
Laurent Robinson
Atl
137
173
36
WR54
Muhsin Muhammad
Car
141
137
-4
WR55
Ronald Curry
Oak
146
>220
79
WR56
Derek Hagan
Mia
150
172
22
WR57
Robert Meachem
NO
157
>220
68
WR58
David Patten
NO
161
>220
64
WR59
Michael Clayton
TB
162
126
-36
WR60
Jerry Porter
Jac
168
143
-25
WR61
Deion Branch
Sea
173
>220
52
WR62
Brandon Stokley
Den
178
>220
47
WR63
Demetrius Williams
Bal
180
>220
45
WR64
Devard Darling
KC
185
97
-88
WR65
Bobby Engram
Sea
193
156
-37
WR66
Darrell Jackson
Den
200
>220
25
WR67
Michael Jenkins
Atl
204
159
-45
WR68
Jabar Gaffney
NE
211
196
-15
WR69
Antwaan Randle El
Was