From the Gut - Running Backs
Posted 8/6 by David Dodds, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Adrian Peterson, Min - I have a bad feeling about AP this year. I don't question his talent at all, but a lot of things broke right for him last year. He still will split carries with Chester Taylor and will likely face 8+ in the box every time he is in the game. My gut tells he disappoints everyone drafting him early.
Steven Jackson, StL - I suspect cooler heads will prevail like they always do and Jackson will get signed to a long-term deal. This team will be awful if Jackson is not on the field.
Marion Barber III, Dallas - I believe the Cowboys will have a much more balanced attack in 2008 (up from the paltry 419 rush attempts in 2007), but my gut tells me the extra carries will go to Felix Jones and not Marion Barber. I have Barber projected for 230 carries right now, but I would not be surprised to see the team hold him to around 200 carries for the season based on his running style (constant collisions). This team is playoff bound and Barber is a key piece to that puzzle. With leads, I expect Felix Jones to carry the ball deep into the 4th quarter.
Marshawn Lynch, Buf - As the season wore on last year, it became obvious that Lynch has big-league talent. The Bills also did not get him involved much in the passing game despite Lynch having exceptional hands. He got a break on the hit and run in the offseason and won't miss any time. I suspect he will have a lot larger role in the offense starting this season.
Larry Johnson, KC - I can't put my finger on it here, but I have a very bad vibe regarding LJ this season. The Chiefs look awful on paper and that's probably a big reason behind it. I see this team abandoning the run in the 2nd half of most games as they play catch up football. The Chiefs had only 383 rush attempts last year and it would not shock me to see them under 400 again. This running attack also generated only 3.26 yards per carry last year. This once dominate offense line is now well below average. And with Brodie Croyle as the starting QB, all defenses are going to stack the box and dare Croyle to beat them.
Willis McGahee and Ray Rice, Bal - Cam Cameron has a history of getting the most out of his RBs. He was able to make Jesse Chatman look great last season. This year he is working with McGahee and Rice for the Ravens. But early word on McGahee is that his knee continues to swell after practices. And the camp reports on Rice have been glowing every day. I won't be shocked when Rice takes over the running duties sometime this season (either by injury or production). He is a guy I plan on getting in almost every league this year. McGahee is a gamer, but I still remember that hit in the College Championship game with the University of Miami. I know he is years removed from that hit, but I don't like the sound of swelling knees and his super high average draft position.
Ryan Grant and Brandon Jackson - Grant was devastating last year. But hidden in his outstanding season was the way Brandon Jackson ran at the end of the year. Jackson also was very good. If Aaron Rodgers suits up as QB as expected, I think defenses will stack the box in an attempt to slow the running backs down. The team drafted Jackson to be the guy, but he was just outplayed by Grant. Although I think Grant is better than Jackson right now, this has the feel of turning into a full-blown RBBC by season end. Both of these backs have talent.
The New England Running Attack - Just when defenses think they know how to stop the Patriots, Belichick does something completely different. It's a copycat league so expect every opponent to try and pressure Brady often (based on the Giants success in the Super Bowl). But Belichick already is ready for this as he added another pass-catching RB in Lamont Jordan this offseason. Everyone assumes the Patriots are going to throw a lot again this year, but I am starting to think Belichick may run (and hit RBs in the flat on blitzes) a lot more in 2008.
Michael Turner, Atl - I love the way Turner ran the ball as a backup to LaDainian Tomlinson the last few years. He has a punishing style that makes it easy to root for him. I think he will have early success in Atlanta, but I fear his style may cause him to wear down as the season goes on. If I draft him for any teams this year, I also will likely be looking to shop him by midseason.
Darren McFaddden, Oak - I think the college fumbling concerns are overblown and believe Tom Rathman will correct it. I expect McFadden to be the starter on opening day and to have a big impact on offense. If Justin Fargas and LaMont Jordan can have success in this offense, McFadden should easily be an instant hit. I expect his ADP to continually rise through August as the camp reports continue to highlight how well he is playing.
Rudi Johnson and Kenny Watson, Cin - My gut is telling me that although the team will give every opportunity to Rudi Johnson to succeed, I think Rudi has lost it. He was horrible last season as it seemed like the massive carries finally took their toll. Watson should be the recipient if Johnson falters, but he is not a long term answer at RB either. It wouldn't shock me to see the team also give Chris Perry some reps. Overall a situation I am avoiding in 2008.
Ronnie Brown, Mia - I know he is coming off ACL surgery and a player usually isn't all the way back in his first season back. But I have a feeling Brown could be the exception here. I am not sold on Ricky Williams cutting into Brown's production much. I suspect the Dolphins will limit Brown's carries the first few weeks only and that he still gets 200+ carries this season.
Matt Forte and Kevin Jones, Chi - I believe Matt will get the first shot at being the full-time guy here. Only if he falters will we see much of Kevin Jones. I have serious doubts that Jones regains his early form he showed in Detroit.
Julius Jones, Sea - I am not sold that Julius Jones is a better player than Maurice Morris. Add the fact that Morris already knows the playbook and my gut tells me people are going to be disappointed if they draft Julius Jones. The Seahawks paid Jones too much money to rot on the bench, but those expecting 200+ carries could be in for a very rude awakening.
Houston RBs - Although I did not expect a lot out of rookie Steve Slaton before the NFL draft, I think he landed in a great situation. The Houston running back situation is a mess. Ahman Green could never get healthy last year and is now a year older. Chris Brown was brought in as competition, but he isn't the answer. I think by default we could see Steve Slaton as the guy sometime this season.
Chris Johnson, Ten - My gut tells me he silences all the critics. Chris Johnson is a football player. Forget the body type comparisons, etc. This player is a workout warrior and reminds me of the skill set that Reggie Bush brings to the table in New Orleans. With a bunch of no names at WR, I expect the Titans to try and get Chris Johnson up to speed in many different formations as both a WR and RB.
Cadillac Williams, TB - He is done. Put a fork in him. You can't play with his spinal condition/back ailments. He will recover from the knee injury, but his back will prevent him from ever making any kind of significant impact again in this league.
Shaun Alexander, FA - He still has skills to be a good backup RB, but he believes his skills are way better than most talent evaluators do. My guess is he retires quietly from football as no team ever offers Shaun what he believes he is worth.
Cedric Benson, FA - I thought he was horrible the first time I saw him so I will be shocked to see any team take a chance on him anytime soon. I doubt he plays in the NFL this season.