From the Gut - Final Takes
Posted 9/3 by David Dodds, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
I have combed through mounds of data to get to the start of the season. And although I believe in the numbers that are on this site, I also think sometimes we have thoughts that don't translate well to projections. But when you immerse yorself in football news like we do at Footballguys, our gut can be pretty important to listen to
Sometimes you just have to follow your gut.
Below are some random thoughts that are buzzing in my head.
Quarterbacks
Brett Favre - The hype is an all-time high, but I am not biting. He helps the Jets, but I don't think he performs near his ADP at all. He is playing in a new offense, new conference and with new players. In my opinion, it's too much for an established veteran to handle. Add in the rabid New York fans and I think this ends badly.
JT O' Sullivan, Alex Smith and Shaun Hill - Let's start with Shaun Hill. He can't grasp the complex Martz playbook. Those counting on him to get a shot are likely kidding themselves. Alex Smith is smart enough and understands what Martz is trying to do, but appears to overthink everything when running the offense. He may get another shot if JT struggles, but he reminds me of a rattled David Carr who just won't commit to throwing the ball before he gets sacked. That leaves us with JT O'Sullivan who actually is running this offense pretty well. With Martz history of making average QBs look great in this system, O'Sullivan could be the steal of the draft.
Chad Pennington - Of all the trades and moves this offseason, I really like this one a lot. Miami isn't going to the Superbowl this year, but Pennington provides much needed leadership and consistency to this team. A player like Ted Ginn can just worry about getting open as Pennington has always been accurate (at least on the shorter routes). He should help establish a winning attitude as well.
David Garrard - I am not sure who will catch the ball for the Jaguars as their receivers keep getting injured, arrested for drugs, or are underperforming in camp. But despite all of this, I expect Garrrad to improve upon his season in 2007 (will likely throw more picks, but increase in fantasy points). With defenses committed to stop the Jaguars mighty run attack, Garrard should get a lot of easy completion chances. Add in his ability with his legs and I expect him to be a solid fantasy player this year.
Aaron Rodgers - He has been groomed for this role forever. The offense is loaded with weapons and I fully expect Rodgers to do well this year. Yes the pressure will be intense (replacing a legend always is tough), but at his current ADP he represents all upside. He is one of the safer QBs to have this year in my opinion.
Tom Brady - Despite rumors now that his leg isn't right, I am not betting against Brady having another great season. If he plays all 16 games I see him getting 40+ TDs which validates his 1st round draft status. The extra RBs will keep everyone fresh, but I still see this team chewing up huge yardage via the pass. And I see Belichick looking to run up the score again this season too.
Peyton Manning - It's obvious now that he is going to play in week 1, but I am not feeling the love this year for Peyton Manning. Marvin Harrison is on the wrong side of his career and I think early in the season Manning's mobility will be an issue. At his current ADP, he is all downside to me.
Eli Manning - Giving props where they are due, Manning was a beast in the post-season. But I am not excited about his prospects this year at all. This team's strength looks to be their running game and I believe they will look to establish that early and often in most contests. Manning will be efficient and likely lead his team to wins, but he doesn't excite me as a fantasy starter.
Matt Ryan - He looks like he belongs. Admittedly he only had to beat out Chris Redman to start from week 1, but he just looks so poised under center. All rookie QBs struggle, but I think he will have some highlights this year as well. I am a believer going forward.
The Fall of Matt Leinart - I said this when he opted to stay another year at USC while he only took ballroom dancing and played football. The guy's heart is not in the game of football. He wants to date Paris Hilton. He wants to have beer bong parties at his mansion. He wants to be a celebrity. I suspect he is not on the Cardinals roster after this season. Is Kurt Warner the answer? I doubt it, although he will put up some impressive fantasy points before everyone realizes he fumbles way too much.
The Running Backs
Chris Perry and Kenny Watson - It does not shock me that Rudi Johnson was the odd man out here. Although I like Perry's skillset, I think it's crazy to think he will be a force on this team this season. I expect a full-blown RBBC committee here making both players rosterable, but rarely worth starting.
Deuce McAllister and other Saints RBs - I am not sold that McAllister is back at all. He has looked awful in the preseason. Pierre Thomas would seem like the guy who should get a big bump should McAllister be benched, but Aaron Stecker is someone that never seems to go away. My gut tells me to bet against McAllister doing anything in 2008.
Mauice Morris, Julius Jones and Justin Forsett - I called this earlier in the year and I stand behind it. Julius Jones is average to below average. His upside is in a RBBC. He will never be a workload back simply because he isn't very good. Today, Maurice Morris has more skills and knows the blitz pickups better than Jones. That should get him the bigger share of carries early in the season. The guy that intrigues me the most though is rookie Justin Forsett. I saw him play a lot while at Cal and although he is undersized, he runs with more heart than both Morris and Jones. I think he will at least get an opportunity to showcase his skills this season. And sometimes all you need is the opportunity.
Marion Barber - I have tempered my projections on Barber because his style leaves him susceptible to very hard hits (and injuries), but I have to tell you that I won't be shocked when he sets the world on fire this season. He plays in a great offense and runs downhill, punishing defenders along the way. Felix Jones will steal some carries, but Barber will get the goal line work. And in this explosive offense that could be enough to be a top 3 back this year.
Ray Rice and Willis McGahee - I have a very bad feeling about McGahee here. We all seem to forget the hit those knees took while at the University of Miami. If I was a betting man, I would take action that McGahee is not on the Ravens next season. My gut tells me that Ray Rice is going to take the league by storm with his opportunity here.
Steve Slaton, Ahman Green, Chris Taylor and the mess in Houston - Mess is the key word here. All these guys are bad plays. All will likely see time, but I am expecting any clear winners. Of the three, I think Slaton offers the most upside. Seeing how Ahman Green gets injured at the thought of being tackled, I fully expect him to end up on IR again this year. Chris Taylor is serviceable and good for about 3.8 yards a carry, but when did that ever win your fantasy league? Slaton is mostly an unknown commodity, but was passed on by a lot of NFL minds in this year's draft for me to think he is a superstar in the making. Like last year, Houston is likely to abandon the running game this season which bodes well for Matt Schaub and the receivers.
The Annual Denver Mess - Selvin Young should not be a starting RB in this league. And although he gets first crack at that job this season, I strongly doubt he holds onto it all year. I think Ryan Torain could eventually emerge out of this mess, but his injury has derailed him for the short-term. Andre Hall will be given goal line duties and will also steal carries away. Bottom line is this will likely be a big mess all season long. If you want to gamble on this situation, I would go after Torain with my last pick. It carries no risk and Torain was impressing early before he was injured.
Brandon Jacobs - I love the punishing style he brings with every run. And as great as he was last season, he has looked even better coming into this year. I don't buy into the RBBC thoughts where Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw vulture a lot of touches. In my opinion, those guys will barely see the field unless Jacobs gets hurt.
Earnest Graham / Warrick Dunn - Follow the money. And the money that was given to Warrick Dunn tells me this is no slam dunk as to who will be playing the majority of snaps at RB1. I expect Graham to get the bulk of the carries to start, but betting against Warrick Dunn is almost always a losing proposition. As for Cadillac Williams, go ahead and stick a fork in him. Even if the legs somehow heal, he will never be a workhorse back with slipped disks in his back.
Thomas Jones and Leon Washington - A better offensive line and quarterback should open up the running lanes for the Jets' backs. Add the fact that the Jets released Musa Smith, Jesse Chatman is serving a 4-game suspension and everything points to Jones being significantly undervalued in drafts. But this gut thing I have been talking tells me something different. It doesn't like the fact that Jones ypc dipped to a pathetic 3.6 yards per carry lasts season. At age 30, I think Jones is on the wrong side of history to improve. He will get his opportuunities early in the season, but I fully expect this to become a full-blown RBBC (Jones, Washington and Chatman) by the middle of the year.
Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams - Williams is running with a chip on his shoulder after the franchise selected Jonathan Stewart early in this year's draft. And although Williams has looked good in the preseason, it's hard not to fall in love with the abilities of Jonathan Stewart. Make no mistake about it. Stewart is the more explosive player already. In my opinion, this situation parallels the Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor discussions everyone was having last year. Sure these two will start as a RBBC, but talent usually wins out. And my gut tells me that Stewart is the more talented back. He could have a huge role in this offense by year's end.
Kevin Smith and Rudi Johnson - This looks like a whole lot of garbage to me. I don't see either of these backs doing much in this offense. Kevin Smith is the more unknown player so I suppose he represents some upside, but I am not seeing it. My guess is Detroit will be back in rebuilding mode looking to add a RB through the draft.
Ricky Williams - Hmmmm. His price is right, but my gut tells me he fails on the field sometime this year. The question is can you get enough starts from him to justify his draft position until he wears down? I still believe a healthy Ronnie Brown is much better than Williams here. My gut says this starts as RBBC, but Ronnie gets most of the carries by the middle of the season.
Stick a fork in these guys: Shaun Alexander (his self assessment of his worth is not in line with his diminished skills), Cedric Benson (emotionally unstable - Not good enough to try and fix him), Tatum Bell (Fantasy Index cover jinx), Cadillac Williams (chronic back problems are his best case scenario), Deuce McAllister (too many ACL surgeries), Ahman Green (please don't cough near him as he injures easily), Travis Henry (issues upon issues...not worth the headache). Each might have a few carries still in them, but none are worth rostering in my opinion.
Wide Receivers
Ted Ginn - I was at the NFL Draft when Ginn was selected as the ninth pick overall. Let's just say you might have thought his name was Boom or something. Everyone was scratching their heads over the giant reach. OC Cameron is ousted after a year and Parcells is brought in as the GM to right the ship. But from the outset, Parcells has not looked to bring in different receivers. And I think the reason for that is Bill loves what he sees in Ted Ginn. And rightfully so. Ginn is a hardworker and has what they can't teach you...speed. When the Dolphins grabbed Chad Pennington this offseason my first thought was that is sure going to make Ginn a lot better. He just has to worry about getting open as Chad will deliver the ball to the spot. Chad's not a lot of things, but no one has ever accused him of not being accurate (especially on short routes). My gut tells me that Ginn emerges in year 2 on a team that will need to throw a lot to stay in games.
Nate Burleson and the Seattle WRs - I was a huge critic when Seattle overpaid to land Burleson a few years ago. He was an unpolished receiver with return skills. Fast forward to this year and I see someone who has worked tirelessly to get better every year. He broke through last year and I think his biggest year to date might be staring us all in the face. He just looks different out there...More confident and running better routes. The team is moving him all around the field too so I suspect he is going to stay on the field for most plays. This offense had nearly 4,200 passing yards in 2007. With Engram and Branch limited and unproven guys like Courtney Taylor and Logan Payne opposite of Burleson, I expect Nate to get an unreal number of targets early this year.
The San Francisco Aerial Attack - Martz this and Martz that. Soon as the Offensive Coordinator was hired that was the buzz. And for good reason. Mike Martz led teams produce a lot of passing yards. Just look at the Rams with Warner and Bulger and these past years with the Lions and Kitna. Most of us assumed Alex Smith would be catapulted into being the QB he was drafted to be. But then something happened. Alex Smith struggled. And the other QB Shaun Hill couldn't digest the complex playbook. So the collective thoughts started to wain regarding this offense in 2008. But my gut tells me that we are jumping off the boat a little to fast here. Martz has his guy in JT O'Sullivan who learned the offense from him in Detroit. And although the receivers don't seem like world killers this moment, my gut tells me someone is going to emerge from this group to have a huge season. Did anyone think Mike Furrey or Shaun McDonald were in for big seasons in Detroit before they produced? Isaac Bruce is the best known commodity, but the person I think could be electric is Bryant Johnson. He has struggled with injuries all through camp, but has recently regained his starting job back from rookie standout Josh Morgan. All I am going to say is don't be caught napping here. Someone is going to emerge as a huge target in this offense and every player not named Frank Gore is being drafted at a deep discount.
Calvin Johnson - He was annoited before playing a down, but like all other rookies struggled a bit to adjust to the speed of the NFL. But that was last year. He looks like a man among boys this camp and I don't think this is a mirage. I think he is primed to become the elite receiver he was drafted as. With a running attack in Detroit that looks beyond awful, I expect Johnson to be featured often in this offense. My gut tells me this offense goes through him in 2008.
Brandon Marshall - Immature, stupid, and immensely talented. Can he stay on the field? That is the million dollar question. Because anyone that saw him play last year knows he is among the top at his position. He simply is not coverable. And then after he catches it, you need an army to tackle him. He really is that good. His lawyer was able to get his suspension reduced to 1 game, but some charges are still lingering. If he can stay on the field, my gut tells me he is going to produce beyond even the loftiest of expectations. He led all receivers in targets last year and I think the same thing could happen this season as well.
Santonio Holmes - He keeps getting better and better and now is the #1 WR in Pittsburgh (sorry Hines Ward fans). My gut tells me this is the year where he puts it all together and gets a lot more catches (not just the infrequent highlight where he streaks past everyone and catches the bomb). Limas Sweed was brought in to add depth at WR, but has struggled to learn the routes. Fear not Pittsburgh fans, Holmes is ready and willing to put this team on his back this season.
Chad Johnson and Chris Henry - hmmm....a torn labrum for a receiver who consistently goes up high to bring down the long pass....This spells disaster waiting to happen to me. Every defense is going to jam Johnson at the line of scrimmage to make him constantly remember this injury for as long as he toughs it out. And dare I think about what price he will pay should he catch anything over the middle? I have my doubts that Johnson toughs it out for very long before opting for surgery and rest. This team has "implosion" written all over it. My gut tells me that Johnson is mostly ineffective and the team loses often. As soon as Chris Henry can play, I anticipate seeing less and less of Chad on the field. The shark move is likely to roster Henry very late or via the waiver wire although that certainly comes with downside too knowing his recent history for getting into trouble.
Javon Walker - Sometimes you just know that something is wrong mentally with a player. I knew Cedric Benson was a big bust candidate in this league the moment he was crying at the NFL Draft that he had been disrespected and was drafted as a top 4 player. I have the same bad feeling about Javon Walker right now. The second Brandon Marshall emerged as a threat in Denver, Javon instantly felt disrespected and not loved and wanted out. He also could not get a big deal done in Green Bay despite huge production early in his career. And now that he got the big deal in Oakland he was rumored to ask about retiring before playing a real game with the Raiders. Add in the Vegas nightclub story without ever hearing what went down and I am not a believer. This guy will be out of the league soon. His heart is not in this.
Devin Hester - I wish I knew what to expect here as the experiment continues. My gut tells me Hester fails here because just being fast isn't enough to be a good receiver. Add in Kyle Orton as the guy who needs to hit Hester in stride and my feeling is even stronger. Without much competition in Chicago though, Hester could retain the starting WR gig for much of the year. That alone might make him a value selection at his current ADP.
New Orleans #2 - This offense is going to produce a lot of passing yards. We are all in agreeement that WR Colston and RB Bush will get their catches if they stay healthy. I don't believe the recent announcements that Devery Henderson and/or Lance Moore are the #2 guys. And if they are, this is a paper depth chart only. The two guys to target in my opinion are David Patten and Robert Meachem. I believe Patten will start the year off as the WR2, but slowly yield production and opportunity to the much more talented Robert Meachem.
Jerry Porter - I hated this signing the second Jacksonville did it and nothing this offseason has changed my mind. He's now battling a multitude of injuries and I question how much we will see of him even when he gets healthy. My gut tells me that Reggie Williams will remain WR1 with the Jaguars this season.
Marvin Harrison - I know many are expecting a bounce back for Marvin this season. Although I would love to see it happen too, I just don't think it will. He was cleared to play last year, yet never saw the field until the playoffs. And then when he did play, he was a shell of the Marvin we had watch play all these years. He was tentative and afraid of contact. We never got any answers to why Marvin was awful at the end of last year...why he was cleared to play every single week yet never played. At age 36, I don't expect him to improve. I think the team will give him opportunities this season, but my gut tells me he will be behind Anthony Gonzalez soon on the depth chart. It's a young man's league and Marvin will soon be passed up by players with more desire and fresher legs.
Tight Ends
Tony Scheffler - Shocker. Tony has not been passed up on the depth chart by career blocking TE Nate Jackson. The 'ol motivation play to get Scheffler to work on blocking better at it's finest. Yes Scheffler needs to improve his blocking. He is mostly a receiver with very limited blocking skills. But make no mistake about it...he and Cutler are on the same page. I nabbed him early in the preseason to have a career year and then soured a tad when he was running with the 2nd unit in practice. I still think Tony is in for a great year. I love that he rooms with best-friend Jay Cutler on the road too.
Vernon Davis - Martz has hinted that Davis will be asked to block a great deal this year and that has scared off some fantasy owners. Yes Davis will block sometimes, because he is rounding into a very complete TE who can catch and block. But if anyone thinks Martz has noticed how hard he is to bring down, I think you guys are all mistaken. Despite Martz rarely featuring the tight end in the past, my gut tells me Vernon Davis is going to be used a lot this season in the passing offense. Martz has just never had anyone with this unique skill set.
Owen Daniels - When you can't run you throw. And that is exactly where the Texans find themselves this season. Andre Johnson will get all the headlines with the long passes and electrifying runs after the catch, but Daniels will likely be racking up the yardage quietly and moving the chains. He has improved every year in the league and I like his chances for that trend to continue.
Zach Miller - The Oakland passing game is BAD...as in real bad, pathetic, league-worst kind of bad. But the one bright spot emerging is TE Zach Miller. My gut tells me he leads the team in receptions as the safety net for an inexperienced JaMarcus Russell.
Marcedes Lewis - With the Jaguars receivers mostly banged up and limping, can this be the year where Lewis puts it all together? My gut tells me owners might be running to the waiver wire soon to get him on their squad this season.
Dave Thomas - With Ben Watson hobbled and likely to miss at least the first week, don't be shocked when Dave Thomas emerges with a huge effort out of the gate. The New England offense is mostly about opportunity and Thomas has flashed good skills before. My gut tells me that Thomas, not Ben Watson, will be the tight end to have in New England this year.