The Profit - Week 9

Posted 10/30 by Mike Brown, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Let's get to the picks!

CLEVELAND (-1.5) vs. BALTIMORE

Last time these teams met, the Ravens smacked the Browns by 18 points. Of course, that was in Baltimore while this game will be taking place in Ohio. Added to that, the Browns have actually played terrifically over the last three weeks. They put up 35 and 23 points in beating the Giants and Jaguars, two legitimate teams. And they hung in there against a very good Redskins team in Washington. So the Browns have at least salvaged their reputation, if not their season. The Ravens, after being trounced by the Colts, have only come back to put up 56 points in their last two games. They're really clicking right now, and that defense is still playing exceptional football (duh). The problem I see here for Cleveland won't be stopping Baltimore's suddenly potent offense. It'll be moving the ball at all. Both teams have had fairly stagnant offenses, but the Ravens have the only elite unit here. And that should make all the difference in this one. PICK: Ravens

TAMPA BAY (-8.5) at KANSAS CITY

On the road this year, Tampa has done the following: lost to New Orleans by four, beaten Chicago by three, lost to Denver by three, lost to Dallas by four. I have absolutely no doubt that they will beat the Chiefs this weekend. I also have very little doubt that they will do so without blowing them out. This smells like a 17-10 game. PICK: Chiefs

ARIZONA (-3) at SAINT LOUIS

Is it me, or are these teams not as far apart as everyone seems to think? I know I picked Arizona to win the division and all (for the 21st consecutive season) and I agree that they are better than the Rams. But to this point, what has Arizona accomplished that is so fantastic compared to Saint Louis? The Rams beat two quality teams, then lost by seven to a resurgent Patriots squad. Arizona beat two quality teams, and lost by four to a good Panthers team. Only difference is that the Cardinals also have wins over the POWERHOUSES of Miami and San Francisco. Oh, and they gave up 56 to the Jets. I'm sorry, but with Donnie Avery's ability to stretch the field and the potential return of Steven Jackson, I'm going with the homeboys here. PICK: Rams

MINNESOTA (-4.5) vs. HOUSTON

I've been saying for awhile now that Houston is a much better team than they're being given credit for. Several of their losses have been tough, late-game losses, and they've played extremely well the last few weeks. Well, the same could be said of Minnesota. Except they're home. And rested. And I think those factors alone should account for them taking this one from the Texans. Am I concerned that they gave up 48 points to the Bears in their last game? Surely. But I don't think this will be one of those type of games. The Minnesota defense should be good enough to slow Houston's rushing game, turning them one-dimensional and predictable. And if that doesn't work, they could always have eight guys cover Andre Johnson. PICK: Vikings

TENNESSEE (-5.5) vs. GREEN BAY

Tennessee is obviously going to lose one of these weeks, and the fact that it didn't happen against a desperate Colts team makes me think the Titans have gone from "nice story" to "powerhouse" in a very short span of time. So it's kind of tough to bet against them, well...ever. Every week, it's going to be one of those "this could be the week" type of things. And when a powerhouse team faces that every week, do you know what usually happens? Usually, that isn't the week. And the powerhouse team keeps right on rolling. I know Green Bay is rested, coming off two impressive victories, and has begun to show some signs of life from its running game. The Titans are coming off the short week after the Monday night game. So for Tennessee, this could be the week...PICK: Packers (apparently I like to lose)

JACKSONVILLE (-8) at CINCINNATI

So, exactly which of these teams looked sadder last week? The Bengals are like the delinquent who held up a store at gunpoint, robbed the clerk, and punched a cop during the arrest. The Jaguars are like the honors student who was caught cheating on the SATs. Obviously the first one was much worse, but it's pretty par for the course. The second is no big deal in the grand scheme, but you just expect so much more. OK, so what the hell am I talking about? I have no idea. All I know is, the Bengals are going to prison for a long time. PICK: Jaguars

DENVER (-3) vs. MIAMI

Denver has had two weeks to prep while Miami has been banging heads with the likes of Baltimore and Buffalo. The Broncos should be healthy and rested, and perhaps the biggest key will be the much-awaited debut of Hall of Famer Barry Sanders. No, not the real Barry Sanders. I'm talking about guaranteed future Hall of Famer Ryan Torain. I'm expecting somewhere in the neighborhood of 17 carries, 467 yards, 8 TDs, a cure for cancer, a solution to the national debt, surgery-free breast implants, a definitive announcement to who killed JFK, and an Academy Award, followed by having sex with Scarlett Johansson on the 50-yard line immediately after the game. PICK: Broncos

ATLANTA (-3) at OAKLAND

I hate doing this, I really do. I mean, the Raiders are just so bad. It's just that I don't think there are very many teams Atlanta should be giving points to on the road. In fact, there might not be any. Nnamdi Asougmiouohagohioea should be able to stifle Roddy White, and without that home run threat they aren't the same team. Please remind me of this write-up when the halftime score reads Atlanta 27, Oakland 3. PICK: Raiders

INDIANAPOLIS (-5.5) vs. NEW ENGLAND

Remember when this was THE game to watch every year? It was like a football holiday. We'd give gifts, gather our families around, and cheer loudly for the Patriots to lose. Now, it's become a matchup of two teams that we have no idea about what to expect. What's more, I don't know that they do either. The teams have no identity, which is sportswriter code for "they aren't very good or consistent or anything but they could beat anyone or lose to anyone at any given time". Historically speaking, I've never been any good at picking the winner of this matchup anyway so I will almost assuredly be wrong this time as well. The game is in Indy, and Bob Sanders should be back. That is a decisive advantage over: the Pats are on the road, and Randy Moss looks like he might be trying a little. PICK: Colts

WASHINGTON (-1.5) vs. PITTSBURGH

Terrifically interesting game here. The Redskins have got to be eager to put a stamp on the season's first half with another win, while the Steelers have got to be pretty desperate to show that they aren't a false 5-2. They need a statement win, if not for the media to get off their backs then for themselves. Ben Roethlisberger hasn't played too well in the face of constant pressure, but what QB would? On the other side of the field, the Redskins have taken advantage of their close games by winning just about all of them. As you are all very aware, I base very little of my decisions on scientific study and a bit more on gut feel. And I feel like the Steelers are going to respond. They get Santonio Holmes (and possibly Willie Parker) back, and suddenly are in crucial need of a victory to hold off a hot Ravens team in the division. Nothing we've seen suggests that Pittsburgh should win this game, so that's why I'm taking them. Strictly a contrarian bet. PICK: Steelers

BEST BETS

BUFFALO (-5.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS

Buffalo laid an egg against Miami last week, which certainly knocks them down a peg or two in everyone's book. Meanwhile, the Jets struggled to beat the awful Chiefs. Barely beating the Chiefs might actually qualify as being worse than losing to the Dolphins. The Bills are still a class above New York, and the Jets have failed to impress anyone outside of the Arizona game. There is about a zero percent chance the Bills win this one by less than a touchdown. PICK: Bills

CHICAGO (-13) vs. DETROIT

I wish I could tell you the Lions will fight the good fight, and the Bears will let them be. I wish I could tell you that, but Soldier Field is no fairy-tale world. PICK: Bears

NEW YORK GIANTS (-9) vs. DALLAS

Until the Cowboys realize that Brad Johnson is nowhere near a real NFL quarterback, they're going to have a lot of problems. In all honesty, I'd have to consider this line if there was a '1' in front of the nine. I think the Giants win one of the more lopsided games of the season. Think about it. If the Cowboys weren't called the Dallas Cowboys and were merely a team that had played like garbage against the Rams and Cardinals, and whose quarterback needed 33 passes to get to 122 yards, and they were on the road against the defending Super Bowl champs, would this be less than ten points? I thought not. PICK: Giants

PHILADELPHIA (-7) at SEATTLE

Seattle wins one game against the hapless Niners and all of a sudden they can hang with the big boys? I don't think so. PICK: Eagles

PICK OF THE WEEK

New York Giants

LAST WEEK

OVERALL: 7-6-1 (54%)
BEST BETS: 2-1-1 (67%)
PICK OF WEEK: 1-0

SEASON TOTALS

OVERALL: 56-56-4 (50%)
BEST BETS: 15-15-2 (50%)
PICK OF WEEK: 5-3 (63%)