The Profit - Week p1

Posted 12/31 by Mike Brown, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Holy crap do I suck. Please disregard last week, as I was clearly smoking crack when I made those picks.

As you'll see the further we get into this thing, there is something extremely interesting going on. It may even be unprecedented. Whatever it is, the NFL has suddenly been turned upside-down. Why, you may ask? Well, apparently home-field advantage no longer means anything. It's Wild Card weekend for the NFL, and all four of the home teams are underdogs. That is absolutely astounding. What's even more astounding is that it's not really that astounding. What I mean is, looking at the matchups, who can blame Vegas for setting it up this way? The Cardinals limp into the playoffs at 9-7 and will take on an 11-win Falcons team. The Chargers snuck in at 8-8 to face a 12-win Colts squad on a nine game win streak. The Ravens dominated everyone but the Steelers this season, yet have to go into Miami to face a team that won ONE game in 2007. And the Vikings are generally considered as an "also-ran" division winner while the Eagles are full of momentum despite losing just one week ago.

In other words, it's all pretty typical for the 2008 NFL season. Let's get to the picks!

ATLANTA (-2.5) at ARIZONA

Atlanta has proven itself time and again all season long that they are a very legitimate team. They aren't great defensively, but they usually get the job done. And on the offensive side, there are few teams that can match their firepower. That should turn out to be the difference in this one. While Arizona is every bit as explosive (and made themselves a bit more formidable by finally putting up big numbers last week), they lack the running game necessary to control the clock. They also lack the defensive ability to stop Atlanta's rushing attack, so I don't think their offense will be on the field long enough to show off that passing game. Arizona does have one chance to remain in the game, however. Matt Ryan, for all of his accolades and accomplishments, is still a rookie quarterback. When was the last time it was a wise decision to back a rookie quarterback - on the road - when his team is favored? Historically, this trend would yield about a 0% return so there's something to it. But in this year's NFL, you almost have to go against that trend. If it was anyone but Arizona, I'd say fine. But they've just been so completely inept that it's near-impossible to trust them at this point. PICK: Falcons

INDIANAPOLIS (-1.5) at SAN DIEGO

Without question, this is the gem of the weekend from a fan's perspective. For whatever reason, things get mighty interesting when these two get together. It was more of the same in the regular season when the Colts marched into San Diego and squeaked out a victory with Adam Vinatieri banging in a 50 yard field goal. This, of course, came roughly one year after he missed what would have been a game-winning 29 yard field goal against the Chargers. By the way, that was the same game that Peyton Manning threw six interceptions but the Colts still only lost by two. The year before, the underachieving Chargers ruined the 13-0 Colts' perfect season with a terrific Week 15 performance. See what I mean? Crazy things happen. I've been saying for most of the season that the Colts were going to be a one and done playoff team. Then they were paired up against an 8-8 team in the first round. Of course. The two hottest teams in the league going up against one another should make for a dynamite game, and one thing about each of them is that they are almost never blown out. In Philip Rivers' three seasons as a starter, the Chargers have lost just fifteen games. Yet what's even more impressive is the fact that only four of those losses have been by more than seven points (only one of them coming this season). Over that same timeframe, Manning has lost eleven games, with only four of those featuring more than a seven point deficit. So we can be almost assured of a close game here. We've got two hot teams. We've got two explosive passing offenses whose running games have severely disappointed. We've got two defenses who haven't been able to get out of their own way for a good portion of the season. And we've got two MVP candidates at QB leading their teams into the game. If you can figure out which of these teams will show up, I'm all ears. My head tells me to go with the Colts because they are the team with the cerebral Peyton Manning. But my heart tells me to go with the Chargers because they've got the emotional Philip Rivers. Coin flip time. PICK: Chargers

BALTIMORE (-3.5) at MIAMI

I wouldn't bet my ENTIRE life savings on this one, because it is after all a similar situation to Matt Ryan: rookie quarterback on the road in his first playoff game and going in as the favorite. That's a lot of pressure to put on a young guy. But I don't see any way the Miami offense gets things going against the Baltimore defense. The Ravens might not feature the best defense in the NFL, but it's darn close. And it's a whole lot more dominant than anything the Miami offense will throw out there. And it's not like Baltimore's offense is lacking anything, either. Joe Flacco and the run game should be able to do a decent job moving the football against Miami, and I would expect this to be the most lopsided game of the weekend. The Ravens are a #6 seed in name only; they are at worst the third-best team in the AFC right now. PICK: Ravens

PHILADELPHIA (-3) at MINNESOTA

Everyone is suddenly all about the Eagles. People are jumping on this bandwagon as if it cannot be stopped. Nevermind the fact that it was completely stopped just one short week ago when they could put up just a field goal against the Redskins. Perhaps people don't realize how good this Minnesota team can be. I'm not suggesting the Eagles CAN'T win the game, but I'm pretty surprised that they are favored. Find me the position on the field where they are leaps and bounds better than the Vikings. You might say quarterback. I might say it's not leaps and bounds if you've watched Tarvaris Jackson play lately. Maybe I'm giving him too much credit (probably), but he has impressed me. And a Minnesota passing game that can take any pressure off the run game is a good thing. Meanwhile, I think Minnesota will do a far better job defensively than the Eagles will. They're also home, and if there's anyone who has an idea on what to expect from Donovan McNabb, it's his former offensive coordinator (and current Vikings head coach) Brad Childress. This should be a pretty good game, but Philly fans who are already looking ahead to the grudge match with New York might want to take it easy and take care of business in Minnesota first. This will be far from a cakewalk, if they even win at all. PICK: Vikings

PICK OF THE WEEK

Baltimore Ravens

LAST WEEK

OVERALL: 4-11-1 (27%)
BEST BETS: 1-3 (33%)
PICK OF WEEK: 1-0

SEASON TOTALS

OVERALL: 116-134-6 (46%)
BEST BETS: 29-42-3 (41%)
PICK OF WEEK: 8-9 (47%)