Reading the Defense

  Posted 10/29 by Jene Bramel, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Many of you are likely in good position to grab a playoff berth over the next five weeks. We'll have all the latest information and analysis a little later in this week's column, including some key updates on a few high profile injuries and their replacements and some lineup changes you can exploit before your leaguemates. First, however, we'll begin our yearly position-by-position examination of players worth stashing in deep dynasty leagues or watching closely this offseason in leagues with shallower rosters.

Dynasty Futures Market: Defensive Tackles

Defensive tackle is the toughest position to project. Teams regularly rotate their interior defensive linemen, the tackle position is easily double-teamed and few tackles are asked to penetrate and make plays on every down. Still, with the increasing number of expanded IDP leagues requiring at least one DT starter, it's important to look ahead and consider some potential breakout talents. Those who have been reading this feature since its inception two seasons ago will be pleased to learn that we will not be highlighting John McCargo this season.

• Pat Sims (CIN) - Sims, a third round pick in the 2008 draft, finally got on the field in a rotational role in Week 6 after missing the first five games while recovering from a foot injury. Though he remains behind veteran John Thornton on the depth chart, Sims has already begun to make the most of his limited snaps, totaling ten solos in three games. Sims may never be a consistent pass rusher, but he has the look of a steady tackler once he earns a full time role. That should be opening weekend 2009 at the latest.
• Eric Foster (IND) - We mentioned Foster a couple of weeks ago after he briefly cracked the starting lineup. Foster has some work to do to become an effective every-down player, but he has an explosive first step that can't be taught and a solid motor. With a little improvement in the weight room and his technique, Foster has the making of a solid three-technique defensive tackle. The next Warren Sapp, La'Roi Glover or Vonnie Holliday could come from anywhere. Keep guys like Foster on your radar just in case.
• Derek Landri (JAC) - Landri was impressive in a limited role in 2007, but hasn't been able to work his way into more than spot duty behind veterans John Henderson and Rob Meier this season. Landri has upside, however, and though both vets are signed through 2010, he's worth keeping on a watch list in deep leagues.
• Jason Jones (TEN) - After the draft, many IDP owners had their eye on Jones as a potential end prospect given the open slot opposite Kyle Vanden Bosch. The Titans have elected to work Jones into the three-technique slot, however, which also fits Jones' skill set. Like Landri, Jones is seemingly stuck behind two very good defensive tackles in Albert Haynesworth and Tony Brown. Haynesworth isn't a lock to be re-signed yet, though, and Jones could still work himself into significant playing time relatively soon.
• Trevor Laws (PHI) - Laws, like Landri and Jones, is seemingly blocked from significant playing time by Brodrick Bunkley and Mike Patterson. The Eagles like to rotate their defensive line, however, and will almost certainly find ways to get a talented second round pick on the field soon.

Stats, Metrics and Trends

Our trusty Tackle Opportunity metric is one way to look at whether the production of an IDP is what it seems. Big production despite poor opportunity is a great sign. Big production associated with big opportunity may be a mirage. Low production despite good opportunity is a major red flag. Another telling rate statistic to confirm your high opinion or nagging suspicion of the numbers of your favorite or vexing IDPs is percentage of team solos made.

Consider the following table.

A couple of quick disclaimers. The table above compares the highest solo tacklers to date this season. Those who haven't played in each of their team's games due to injury, suspension, etc aren't well represented. For example, Stephen Cooper would likely finish in the top ten had he played all eight games for San Diego. Still, there are plenty of interesting conclusions to draw from the data.

First, the first four players on this list have proven themselves studs regardless of opportunity. Willis, Williams, Beason and Vilma hold the four highest slots in both solos per game and percentage of team solos. As a point of reference, Willis' 13.73% pace would be the tenth best number over the past six seasons of data and well behind his 15.62% of 2007.

After those four, the numbers are all over the map.

Zach Diles finished 20 slots higher in percentage of team solo rankings than he did in the solos/game rankings. Though there's been some indication that DeMeco Ryans has been limited by injury, the effect of having Diles in the lineup also seems a major factor in Ryans so-so tackle numbers. Other players who seem to be outplaying their opportunity include Zach Thomas, Ray Lewis, Thomas Davis and Gerald Hayes.

On the other hand, guys like Freddie Keiaho (-16), Leroy Hill (-14) and Nate Webster (-13) finish much worse in percentage of team solos rankings than in solos per game. Gary Brackett, Ernie Sims, Dhani Jones, Thomas Howard and D'Qwell Jackson are also well back in the percentage of team solo rankings when compared to their per game numbers. Interestingly, with the exception of Jackson, each of the above players has seen a well above-average amount of tackle opportunity. All should be considered serious risks for a drop in numbers at some point in the future if their teams improve enough to bring their opportunities closer to league averages.

Though not listed above, the safety numbers support the eyes-on analysis that Gibril Wilson, Yeremiah Bell and Eric Weddle are all having stellar seasons. All three players have made more than 11% of their team's solo tackles.

Week 8 MVPs - Most Vexing Players

To keep some of these guys from getting lost in the Stunts section below, we're going to adapt the "Interesting Boxscores" segment of our weekly all-IDP podcast into a new RTD feature where we'll take a closer look at the most surprising breakout and disappointing box scores each week.

• CLE DT Shaun Rogers (9 solos, sack) - A healthy and motivated Rogers is possibly the best defensive tackle in the league and he proved it this week. The nine sack effort put him on pace for nearly 70 solos this season, a ridiculous number for a 3-4 nose tackle. Rogers is at risk of imploding at any time, but seven weeks of consistent production deserved the nod here. Rogers was a good bet to produce this season, but even his most ardent supporters would admit that he's wildly exceeded expectations. Enjoy the ride.
• KC CB Brandon Flowers (5 solos, 3 assists, 2 PD, 2 INT, TD) - Flowers hasn't been the tackle producer many thought he could be, but, strangely not a single Kansas City IDP has been a consistent tackler despite some of the best opportunity in the league. Flowers' explosion last week, though against Brett Favre, could be the beginning of a big second half.
• SF OLB Manny Lawson (7 solos, 2 assists, sack) - The latest in a long line of box scores that tantalize and tease his owners, Lawson again flashed the huge potential he could have if the light goes on for him as an all-around player. Expect that light to continue to flicker off and on and you won't be disappointed with his next long disappearance.
• PIT OLB James Harrison (2 solos, 2 assists) - You've got to take the good with the bad when you roster and start a 3-4 OLB, even one as good as Harrison. Harrison's matchups during the second half are not as good as they were in the first. Harrison is good enough to remain a solid play most weeks, but expect his first half pace to cool off.

Stunts

Plenty of injury issues to tackle this week and we'll start with preseason consensus LB1 tier talent turned disappointment David Harris, who may be out for an extended period with a leg injury. Reports have been unclear early in the week, some calling it a groin problem, others a hip injury. There's also been a suggestion that Harris needed additional tests after a Monday MRI. None of that sounds promising. In the short term, the Jets could use David Bowens in Harris' slot. Don't expect Bowens to hold much value there. Don't be surprised to see the Jets consider using a lot of 4-3 given the lack of depth they have at ILB. Either way, Eric Barton should see a sizable increase in value and could explode in a MLB role. It's also likely that Kerry Rhodes finally returns to a predominantly in-the-box role with Harris out. That's a role that has been huge for him in prior seasons.

The other hot injury-related pickup (where available) this week in most leagues should be Tampa Bay SS Sabby Piscitelli. Piscitelli has been impressive in limited duty this season and will assume the full time role many had projected him to have last season after the broken arm suffered by Jermaine Phillips last week. Piscitelli may get off to a slow box score start against the Chiefs this week, but stay patient. Big things should follow.

Elsewhere on the injury front, the carnage among the league's defensive ends continues. Kyle Vanden Bosch and Aaron Schobel remain questionable to return. Patrick Kerney may have reinjured a shoulder that required offseason surgery and his status is still unknown. Leonard Little aggravated a hamstring injury and is probably out for an extended period. Jamaal Anderson may miss time with a concussion and Jason Taylor is out after another procedure on his injured calf. Those looking for the likely replacements should consider Lawrence Jackson and James Hall, who should be more effective than probable starter Victor Adeyanju.

If injuries weren't enough, the looming suspensions for Kevin Williams, Pat Williams, Charles Grant and Will Smith will increase the competition for waiver wire DL bodies even more. The loss of both Viking DTs will have a significant ripple effect throughout the front seven. Expect the run defense to suffer terribly, which will likely lead to more opportunity for both Chad Greenway and Ben Leber. Jared Allen could be hit on two fronts as he'll likely see fewer pass rush chances and those he does have will be made more difficult without both tackles to draw blockers. In New Orleans, Jonathan Vilma's top five pace looks highly likely to continue and rotational end Bobby McCray could be a second half stud if he can adjust to an every-down role.

The final injury of note could be the quad injury to Anthony Henry. The Cowboys may not have enough bodies to play their usual amount of dime packages, which could force Zach Thomas into an even larger role. Thomas, who has held up well so far this season and has put together the big tackle numbers the Phillips 1-gap 3-4 often allows to the WILB, could have a monster game against the Giants this week.

From injuries to lineup changes, Week 8 saw a number of new faces in new places on the defensive side of the ball. Donnie Edwards worked his way back into the mix in Kansas City, taking nickel snaps away from Pat Thomas. Bryan Scott remained the SS in Buffalo after the return of Ko Simpson and looks more like the aggressive, physical player he was before a shoulder injury seemingly robbed him of his interest in tackling in 2006. Brandon Harrison fell victim to the latest musical chair episode in Houston and looks to have lost the starting job to the shaky duo of Eugene Wilson and Nick Ferguson. Scott is far and away the best immediate option of this group, with Ferguson the only other potentially useful starting option.

IDP Returner Threats

Week 8 Returner Table

Last Three Weeks Returner Table (Per Game Averages Except for TDs)

In response to the ever-increasing number of leagues that award points for kick and punt return yards, we're adding a new feature to the column. Every week, with a huge helping hand from our IDP Forum's own kerpow (who will be providing the stat tables for this section), we'll be tracking the notable return yardage trends and defensive usage of the league's dual IDP-returner threats.

Ellis Hobbs and Josh Wilson continue to be the most consistent IDP returner options in the league. Hobbs suffered a shoulder injury late in last week's game. He's reportedly expected to be back, but given the Patriots' method of handling injury reporting, it's best to hope that he gets back to practice early this week. Wilson's monster game could have been even better had he gotten a shot at any of the three kickoffs that were touchbacks last week. It seems that, for now, Justin Forsett won't completely kill his return value. Jim Leonhard remains the punt returner in Baltimore and had a very productive 63 yard week. He also added one kick return. Leonhard isn't quite in the safe category that Hobbs and Wilson are as he'll lose returner duty when Yamon Figurs returns. Check the injury reports, but Figurs looks unlikely to return this week. Nate Clements again saw some time as the Niners punt returner, adding 11 yards on two returns against Seattle. His IDP stats remain too inconsistent for comfort, but any added potential is welcome. Whether Clements continues to get return time may depend on whether Allen Rossum's groin injury is still an issue; Rossum returned a couple of kickoffs last week but was apparently not used on punt returns. He may be healthy enough after the SF bye to claim his usual return duties. We thought that Leodis McKelvin would remain a relatively safe nickel option after Terrence McGee's return from injury. Unfortunately, the Bills aren't ready to trust the rookie entirely. Buffalo is using a Big Nickel like package on passing downs, rotating Donte Whitner into the slot as a cover corner. McKelvin is getting plenty of kick return duty, but his IDP stats are in jeopardy. The same is likely to happen to Will Blackmon with Al Harris' return on the horizon. Keep an eye on kerpow's thread in the IDP Forum for all the latest IDP returner news and don't forget to check out Mike Herman's Returnerguys column out each week.

Remember to check out our weekly all-IDP podcast on the Audible every Wednesday and be sure to stop by the IDP Forum every Sunday morning for all the latest and most accurate IDP news, analysis and inactive players. Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to bramel@footballguys.com.

Best of luck in Week 9.