Reading the Defense

  Posted 12/24 by Jene Bramel, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Congratulations to all of you who won leagues this season and earned valuable bragging rights and extra spending money. This will be the last RTD of the season, but we'll be back with semi-regular installments during the offseason and, as always, are expecting to post frequently throughout the offseason in the Forum while putting out a number of podcasts during free agency, the draft and the camp months. Best wishes for a safe and healthy offseason and thanks for reading again this season.

What have we learned?

Unless you play in a league of novices that use outdated magazines with shallow rosters and deep free agent lists, reexamining the preseason decisions you struggled with after your season ends is critically important to improving your player evaluation skill and drafting strategies. This week, we'll look at some of the most controversial preseason decisions, revisit some old arguments and reconsider some summer arguments that went terribly wrong.

Talent vs Opportunity: Jerod Mayo Vs Jordon Dizon

Immediately after the draft, many dynasty IDP owners were fussy that the Detroit Lions or Denver Broncos didn't get their hands on Jerod Mayo, who was widely considered to be the most talented LB prospect available. A good many ranked and drafted Dizon ahead of Mayo, frightened off by the poor recent tackle production of New England's inside linebackers and concerns about the 3-4 scheme and allured by the potential opportunity on what looked to be a terrible Detroit team.

Three days after the draft, Mayo's fall from grace among veteran IDP owners surprised and prompted me to write a post titled "The Case for Jerod Mayo" in our IDP Forum, partly to play Devil's Advocate, but mostly to make the point that one should be "careful when ignoring talent due to a perceived lack of opportunity" and to extend that argument to Mayo's situation. Though offensive injuries have changed the Patriot team, they remain a bottom eight team in tackle opportunity. The take home message here is clear. Recent historical trends are important, but only one factor in your evaluation process. Give a clearly talented player a little extra leeway in your consideration of potential tackle opportunity.

Don't Ignore the Nickel Backer

Despite clear facts to the contrary, many IDP owners continued to make the argument this preseason that there aren't enough nickel snaps each game to warrant downgrading a good linebacker who doesn't play in passing situations. We've shown, through playcalling data and participation logs, that teams may use subpackages anywhere from 25-70% of the time. Using players like Napoleon Harris and Leroy Hill as examples may have blunted the strength of the argument that non-nickel backers are inconsistent lineup options.

This season, the poster boy for the argument is Curtis Lofton. It's undeniable, especially after seeing how well Lofton played and produced in base defensive situations, that Lofton is a clear NFL talent. Yet he projects to barely over 70 solos this season and currently sits outside the top 40 overall among linebackers in FBGs slightly tackle heavy scoring system. If that doesn't convince the remaining holdouts who suggest that concerns over who plays in nickel packages are overblown, nothing will.

Ledge Week

Following the fourth week of the regular season, we made note of a study IDP Forum poster RommelDAK wrote in 2007 that suggested that a player who was underperforming after four games was very unlikely to rebound unless there was a clear reason to think otherwise - no matter what their production had been in recent seasons. Players like Andre Carter, Will Witherspoon, Tamba Hali, Kerry Rhodes and Nate Clements fit the rule well this season. Players like Jared Allen, who started off slowly but showed signs of life (huge quarterback hit numbers) against what had been very difficult matchups, fit the rule reasonably well, too. Expect Ledge Week to be again be a key line in the sand for underperforming IDPs in future seasons.

Rankings in Hindsight

It's important to understand when you've gone right and made correct calls on the upside of players like Jerod Mayo or Yeremiah Bell. It may be more important, however, to examine where you went gravely wrong in the top ten rankings at each position.

This season, the DL lists were beset by injury and players like Aaron Schobel, Jason Taylor and Patrick Kerney may have played to their preseason rankings had they stayed healthy. Andre Carter, however, has no such excuse. I was highest on Carter among the FBG IDP staff, ranking him 10th overall. His trend had been strong for over 20 games and he looked to have the benefit of a strong weak side pass rusher for the first time in his career. Carter's decline is another cautionary tale on why schemes and responsibilities are so critical to player projections. In the past two seasons, Carter's focus was on penetration and pass rush under aggressive defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, and he benefited from a blitz package that kept him from frequent double teams. This year, Greg Blache sacrificed aggressiveness for holding the point and playing sound coverage. Carter's explosiveness was tempered and his numbers suffered. Subtle changes in responsibility can sometimes have major impacts on player production.

David Harris at 3rd overall, Paul Posluszny 7th and D'Qwell Jackson 30th were big misses among linebackers, as were leaving DeMarcus Ware and James Harrison out of the top 40. Posluszny and Harris will finish well outside the 95 solos needed to earn a top ten ranking, with Jackson just the opposite. Making the wrong call on upside backers will happen, but ranking players who have yet to prove themselves for more than one half of a full season is a risky proposition. Harrison and Ware will generate significant debate this offseason. Entering Week 16, they were the top two linebackers in FBG scoring, which is slightly tackle heavy. Both will push for 70 solos this season and finish well into the double digit sacks necessary to remain consistent options.

The defensive back position returned to form this year, with the number of strong tacklers again approaching historical averages. My high rankings of guys like Fred Bennett and Chris Houston should have been tempered for the same reasons we noted earlier with David Harris and Paul Posluszny. Longer track records and elite talent are necessary to project that much upside for players who've yet to prove themselves consistent options.

Stunts

Not too much to discuss this week with the fantasy season all but over, so we'll do some quick hitters and roll our late week Matchups to Exploit and Avoid into the Stunts section this week.

Both Mike Peterson and Justin Durant played well in every-down roles last week against Indianapolis. It'll be interesting to see where both end up this offseason. Durant continues to regularly top five solos tackles as a non-rotational player, putting him in the mix as a 85-92 solo, LB2 option in 2009.

Jason Jones was a player that many liked as a high upside defensive end after he was drafted in the middle rounds of the 2008 draft. In further proof that Jeff Fisher and Jim Schwartz know what they're doing in Tennessee, Jones was moved to tackle during camp and, though not easily recognizable behind Albert Haynesworth and Tony Brown, quickly became a valuable rotational body. Jones destroyed the Pittsburgh offensive line for multiple sacks last week and may make it a little easier for the Titans to decide to pass on giving Haynesworth a monster contract this offseason should they so choose.

James Harrison probably won over many of those skeptical that a 3-4 OLB can remain consistent over a long period of time long before last week. But yet another sack against what had been a very unfavorable pass rushing matchup should definitely seal the deal, especially considering the hip injury that could keep him out of the season's final game to rest up for the playoffs.

The Redskins put Rocky McIntosh back in the lineup this week after benching him mid-game against Cincinnati in Week 15. McIntosh wasn't particularly productive, though, and his 2009 role and IDP value remain very unsettled heading into the season's final game.

Favorable pass rushing matchups this week include Baltimore (Vs Jacksonville), the New York Giants (at Minnesota) and Tampa Bay (at Oakland). Unfavorable pass rushing matchups include Tennessee (at Indianapolis), Carolina (at New Orleans) and San Diego (at Denver). Favorable tackle matchups include Jacksonville (at Baltimore), Minnesota (Vs the New York Giants) and New Orleans (Vs Carolina). Unfavorable tackle matchups include Green Bay (Vs Detroit), Pittsburgh (Vs Cleveland), Tampa Bay (Vs Oakland) and Arizona (Vs Seattle). If you're looking for interesting plays in a Week 17 game, Coy Wire, Justin Durant, Sabby Piscitelli and potentially Lawrence Timmons (if James Harrison sits) as a big play option are all worth considering. And those hoping to see Morlon Greenwood stay in the lineup against the Bears will need to keep a close eye on the injury reports to follow the status of Xavier Adibi.

IDP Returner Threats

Week 16 Returner Table

Last Three Weeks Returner Table (Per Game Averages)

Every week, with a huge helping hand from our IDP Forum's own kerpow (who will be providing the stat tables for this section), we'll be tracking the notable return yardage trends and defensive usage of the league's dual IDP-returner threats.

There do not appear to be any surprises for Week 17. Josh Wilson, Danieal Manning, Leodis McKelvin, Ellis Hobbs and Jim Leonhard all remain solid dual threats. Will Blackmon received a boost with Charles Woodson continuing to see safety snaps last week, and he may continue to get significant defensive snaps with the Lions on the schedule this week. Chris Carr's matchup is better than average this week against Indianapolis and Josh Wilson has another huge matchup against the Cardinals, who should pass frequently and score often. Keep an eye on kerpow's weekly IDP returner thread and Mike Herman's mid-week ReturnerGuys column for the latest news and analysis. Best of luck to those still competing this week.

Best of luck in Week 17 for those still competing but remember, there is no offseason in IDP fantasy football. Our IDP Forum will remain active and full of great discussion throughout the offseason and we'll be back with semi-regular podcasts, beginning with our first offseason show in early January. Happy holidays to everyone.

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to bramel@footballguys.com.