Reading the Defense

  Posted 11/5 by Jene Bramel, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Week 10 is here and with it the last of the bye weeks and the beginning of the stretch run in most leagues. It's time to begin thinking about maximizing relative advantage at every lineup slot - at the expense of depth if necessary - if you're a legitimate contender, or to consider rostering players (or picks) with 2009 in mind in dynasty leagues if you've fallen out of the race for a playoff spot. Let's start this week with the next position in our series looking at potential up-and-comers for 2009.

Dynasty Futures Market: Defensive Ends

It's rare to find a rookie defensive end capable of consistent every-down production. Most have size and strength issues coming out of a college game that is increasingly based on speed, and many need to improve their technique and array of pass rush moves. The sweet spot for the defensive end crop is usually their second and third season in the league. Dynasty owners should be looking for players that show the ability to get to the passer frequently in a situational role and that have a favorable solo tackle - sack number. Racking up sacks and hits late in their first or second season in situational roles or making tackles without having to rely on sacks are very positive predictive factors of future every-down success. Here are a few guys that could fit that profile soon, if they aren't already.

• Chris Ellis (BUF) - Probably a longshot to have any real 2009 value, but Ellis has only a couple of marginal pass rushing talents ahead of him in Chris Kelsay and Ryan Denney. Ellis has some technique work to master this offseason, but could have a larger role for the Bills next season.
• Jarvis Moss (DEN) - Moss is steadily working his way into more playing time in the Denver defensive end rotation, and is also getting some snaps as a stand up pass rusher in the Bronco 3-4 nickel package. Moss suffered a leg injury in 2007 that cost him significant developmental time last season. Moss is thought of primarily as an edge rushing talent, but he has shown a little extra tackle production in his situational role. He'll be worth rostering through the offseason.
• Derrick Harvey (JAC) - We would have left Harvey off this list as a first round pick likely to be rostered already in many dynasty leagues. Then we began to see him dropped in some leagues and made it a point to highlight him here so others wouldn't make the same mistake. Harvey was Chris Long's primary competition as the best every-down rookie prospect in the 2008 draft. Harvey has worked his way into significant rotational snaps despite a long preseason holdout and totaled a quiet seven solos and two quarterback hits. With a full offseason of additional seasoning, Harvey has the 40-10 ability that could put him in the DL1 tier.
• Quentin Groves (JAC) - Groves has been nearly as impressive as draft mate Derrick Harvey in Jacksonville, showing flashes of every-down ability. Groves, like Harvey, has just a couple of solid, though not dynamic, veterans standing in his way for extensive playing time. If he's not rostered, he's a solid gamble for 2009 as well.
• Kendall Langford (MIA) - We highlighted Langford in earlier columns as one of the rare 3-4 ends who could produce consistently enough to have rosterable value in most leagues. Langford has fallen off some, but should hold up better with an offseason of conditioning and technique work. It probably won't take much to increase his playing time over veteran Vonnie Holliday and rotational guys like Randy Starks next season.
• Trevor Scott (OAK) - Scott provided a glimpse of what he could do as a pass rusher with a two sack game last month. The Raiders like Derrick Burgess and Jay Richardson, and Kalimba Edwards has stepped forward in a big way this season, but Scott is worth watching this offseason as well. Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan has had enough good things to say about him to warrant putting him on your radar for 2009.
• Jacob Ford (TEN) - The Titans have veteran Jevon Kearse opposite Kyle Vanden Bosch, but little else. With Jason Jones seeing snaps at the three-technique, Jacob Ford could be an interesting sleeper candidate for 2009 if the Titans decide against bringing in another body this offseason.
• Charles Johnson (CAR) - Outside of Derrick Harvey, Johnson has the highest potential on this list. Johnson, who has finally begun showing the pass rush ability some felt he had leading up to the 2007 NFL draft, has a much better than average chance of becoming an every-down end in 2009. If he can prove he can play the run consistently, he shares Harvey's 40-10 potential.
• Cliff Avril (DET) - Avril had the scouting report of an interesting Tampa-2 RDE prospect - undersized pass rushing talent with some room to improve technique in all phases. Inactive early and seemingly an afterthought early in the season, as rookies tend to be for Rod Marinelli and Joe Barry, Avril has quietly put up seven solos and a sack in the past five games in limited playing time. The six additional solos (less the single sack) could suggest some run support potential and give Avril sneaky value if he can push himself into more regular playing time in 2009.
• Ikaika Alama-Francis (DET) - Alama-Francis was rightly described as a project last season as a rookie, but has still struggled to find consistent playing time this year. Players with his amount of physical ability bear watching, but he needs to make major improvements this offseason to have a chance at any real IDP value in 2009.

Stats, Metrics and Trends

Those who followed our offseason IDP content recall our discussions about the decline in passes defensed in the league last season and how it may have impacted defensive back production. Briefly, we noted that the league had awarded nearly 200 fewer passes defensed in 2007 than they had in 2006, a drop of over 8%. The NFL's Chris Hoeltge, who monitors the league's official stat crews, confirmed for us that the team statisticians were asked to tighten up their judgment on passing plays. Given that both the total number of passes defensed and the percentage of incomplete pass plays for which a PD was awarded decreased, the league's mandate had the desired effect.

The trend continues in 2008. Thus far, the league's defenders project to a total of 2360 passes defensed this season, nearly on par with last season's 2371. The rate stats aren't quite as impressive this season, though. After awarding a pass defensed on nearly 39% of incomplete passes in 2005 and 2006, the league's stat crews awarded a PD on less than 36% of all incomplete passes this season. This season, the percentage is up but not back to pre-2007 levels at 37.2% currently. If the league's completion rate trends back down to its former levels, the PD numbers may trend up a touch as well. The difference is probably negligible for lineup decisions, i.e. it's probably safe to still consider a CB with a good matchup a decent lineup option in situations where you're looking for dual tackle-coverage upside.

The table below doesn't take into account home and away stat crew biases, but it's still worth considering which teams are seeing the most and fewest numbers of passes defensed on average. If you're in a bind, a guy like the Bengals' Johnathan Joseph or Leon Hall may be a much more attractive option than Chris Houston if your scoring system awards as many points for a pass defenses as a solo tackle.

Week 10 MVPs - Most Vexing Players

To keep some of these guys from getting lost in the Stunts section below, we're going to adapt the "Interesting Boxscores" segment of our weekly all-IDP podcast into a new RTD feature where we'll take a closer look at the most surprising breakout and disappointing box scores each week.

• Jonathan Joseph (11 solos, 4 assists, 2 passes defensed) - We've highlighted Joseph's potential in past columns, noting his high pass defensed numbers and willingness to tackle. Joseph isn't a lockdown corner, but covers well enough to make plenty of tackles and frequently knock down passes. Joseph won't be as consistent as guys like Charles Tillman or Cedric Griffin, but he's likely to prove that his Week 9 production wasn't a fluke if he can stay healthy.
• Madieu Williams (8 solos, INT/PD) - Before getting too excited about Williams bucking the so-so trend of production usually seen in Cover-2 safeties, consider that the 19 receptions by Owen Daniels and Steve Slaton and 32 pass receptions by all receivers had much to do with his good week. Williams made no tackles near the line of scrimmage and will struggle to repeat this effort against teams that run the ball more often.
• Michael Montgomery (8 solos, 2 assists, sack, PD) - Montgomery did the bulk of his damage in the second half, coming in for rookie Jeremy Thompson who started against Tennessee. It's hard to ignore such impressive numbers against what had been a very tough DE matchup, but Montgomery isn't ready to produce this well every week.
• Ernie Sims (1 solo, 3 assists) - Sims has been dinged frequently this season, but is on pace for less than 80 solos despite significantly above-average tackle opportunity and hasn't been a big play performer for the third straight season. It might be time to consider sitting him until he proves himself healthy enough to finish a full game and return to his usual tackling form.

Stunts

The most notable injury news from Week 9 was the torn MCL suffered by Denver WLB D.J. Williams, who will miss at least a month. Look for Wes Woodyard to get the first crack at significant playing time replacing Williams. Woodyard was impressive on film, but his size (6'1", 212 lbs) kept him buried on most team's draft boards. Woodyard probably won't see much time in the nickel package, but could follow in the footsteps of players like Leroy Hill and Michael Boley if he can play bigger than the back of his football card. Jamie Winborn and Nate Webster will probably get the bulk of the added value while Williams is out, with Louis Green getting a few looks in the Bronco nickel 3-4 package.

Other important injuries included a sprained shoulder for Donte Whitner, which will keep Bryan Scott in a full time secondary role, and a hamstring injury for Derrick Johnson, who will give way to Donnie Edwards in Kansas City. Brandon Flowers, Lofa Tatupu, Jared Allen and Kyle Vanden Bosch are all question marks after last weekend's games. Charles Grant was placed on IR with a triceps injury, which gives Bobby McCray a clear path to every-down duty. Word has also leaked that Aaron Schobel's foot injury is a potentially season-threatening torn ligament.

Gerald Hayes has begun to lose significant snaps in the Arizona 3-3-5 nickel package with the improved health and play of Adrian Wilson, Chike Okeafor and Bert Berry. The versatility of Antrel Rolle and Karlos Dansby in the middle of the field aren't helping either. Hayes has seen as few as 60% of the defensive snaps in recent games and should be considered matchup dependent for the rest of the season.

We've been patiently waiting for Lawrence Timmons to see more than a few base defensive snaps. After arguing two weeks ago that Timmons' big production against Cincinnati wasn't likely to be repeated because his role hadn't changed but could be the film room spark needed to get him more playing time, the Steelers began using Timmons in the base defense often during the second half of last week's game. Timmons may not be entirely trustworthy in your lineup yet, but he's on the verge of putting Larry Foote on the bench for good. Dynasty leaguers should not wait any longer to roster him.

As expected, Eric Barton saw the bulk of the value in New York with David Harris out. David Bowens started very shakily at the other ILB spot, but improved by the end of the game and could begin eating into some of Barton's value. Kerry Rhodes did not continue his prior week's top production, with only one assisted tackle against Buffalo. Don't write Rhodes off yet, but it's worth watching the Bowens/Rhodes battle closely this week.

Though he still looked good in the box score, be careful before trusting Chicago CB Corey Graham in your lineup this week. Graham moved back to a nickel role with the return of Nathan Vasher, but saw plenty of snaps against the Lions. It's very unlikely that Graham we'll see many nickel snaps against Tennessee. Dynasty leaguers may want to hold if possible, but Graham's value is dependent on the health of Vasher for the rest of 2008.

A few marginal IDPs have seen their roles changed. Brian Williams, who had been seeing more cornerback snaps over the past month, is now officially a full time corner with the demotion of Drayton Florence. Bryan Kehl lost some playing time at WLB for the Giants to Chase Blackburn. Unless there was more of an injury issue than known, that may not be good news in the long term for Kehl. And the Jets have benched Dwight Lowery for David Barrett. That's not likely to last long.

The news that the Raiders may release DeAngelo Hall could have a ripple effect on the Raider defense. Hall may or may not be picked up by another team, but will struggle to match his current value on a team without a shutdown corner like Nnamdi Asomugha on the opposite side. Stanford Routt could assume much of Hall's former value if the move gets made. It's also not out of the question that Michael Huff could begin seeing some corner snaps.

IDP Returner Threats

Week 9 Returner Table

Last Three Weeks Returner Table (Per Game Averages Except for TDs)

* - Missed 1 week of numbers due to bye week, injury or suspension

Every week, with a huge helping hand from our IDP Forum's own kerpow (who will be providing the stat tables for this section), we'll be tracking the notable return yardage trends and defensive usage of the league's dual IDP-returner threats.

Josh Wilson remains a consistent returner option, though he is losing returns to Justin Forsett, who returned two of the five kickoffs for Seattle last week. Wilson remains in no danger of losing his starting position. Ellis Hobbs was a question mark entering last week's games, but played and returned all four kickoffs for New England. His IDP stats weren't great against the Colts, but Hobbs is still a must start in return leagues. This week, the player to watch is Oakland CB Tyvon Branch. With the news that the Raiders are likely to release DeAngelo Hall, Branch could assume a larger role in the nickel package. That role is not guaranteed as we noted above, and this week's matchup against Carolina isn't a great one for nickel corners, but any IDP with a shot at 20-40% of his team's defensive snaps is a viable option in returner leagues. Will Blackmon saw the decrease in IDP stats we were predicting with the return of Al Harris in Green Bay last week. He's not likely to get enough IDP snaps to have returner league value unless you get big points for return yards. Donte Whitner's shoulder injury should get Leodis McKelvin more nickel snaps this week and the New England offense is a great matchup for nickel corners. It will also be interesting to see how the Niners handle punt returns coming off their bye week; Nate Clements could still be in the mix if Allen Rossum isn't fully healthy. Keep an eye on kerpow's thread in the IDP Forum for all the latest IDP returner news and don't forget to check out Mike Herman's Returnerguys column out each week.

Remember to check out our weekly all-IDP podcast on the Audible every Wednesday and be sure to stop by the IDP Forum every Sunday morning for all the latest and most accurate IDP news, analysis and inactive players. Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to bramel@footballguys.com.

Best of luck in Week 10.