From the Gut - IDP

  Posted 8/6 by Jene Bramel, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

One of the most popular late summer features at FBG, and a personal favorite, is the From the Gut series written and updated by David Dodds for our magazine and website. With our focus on value based drafting and all the time we spend on projections and other statistical manipulations, it's refreshing to take a different approach now and then and let your gut be your guide. With David's permission, I thought I'd take his concept and apply it to individual defensive players.

Hard to know whether it's concern over his early 2007 injury, wanting to see more than two full games of production or just plain "out of sight, out of mind" drop in interest from IDP owners, but Paul Posluszny looks like a very good bet to hit 100 solo tackles this season in Buffalo. He's currently at LB11 in Aaron Rudnicki's Top 200, which examines a number of different measures of IDP ADP. I can't see him finishing outside the top ten.

Shaun Rogers has been abusing the Cleveland interior offensive line early in camp. If he holds that level of motivation all season long, he's a great candidate to be 2008's 3-4 breakout defensive end. Since he'll get enough snaps to stay classified as a DT in most league setups, he'll be a top five DT even if his play drops off during the season.

I was lukewarm on Niko Koutouvides all summer long. There wasn't a place for him in Seattle with Lofa Tatupu, Julian Peterson and Leroy Hill entrenched as a durable and above-average linebacker trio, but a true every-down talent would have gotten more interest on the market than Koutouvides did. It's not surprising that he has yet to exclusively earn first team snaps over Nate Webster. He's not even worth a LB4-5 flier in redraft leagues if you're yet to draft.

With the Texans again looking at options to replace Morlon Greenwood in the nickel package, it's hard to see him finishing with more than 85 solos again this season. With every passing day, it's easier to see Xavier Adibi having an impact this season rather than patiently waiting his turn until 2009.

Dismiss the stellar second half box score production of Texan CB Fred Bennett at your own risk. I'm guilty of overrating run supporting cornerbacks at times, but Bennett is the total package. I think he's got top ten (and possibly top five) corner written all over him.

Speaking of run supporting cornerbacks, I think that 2008 is the season that Marlin Jackson finally explodes with the long-anticipated 75 solo tackles and adds enough big play value to finish among the top five corners. I think he'll easily separate himself from teammate Kelvin Hayden, who dropped off significantly during the second half of 2007 and might not feel the early season urge to prove himself this year.

I think Justin Durant not only wins a starting job by camp's end, he'll send Daryl Smith back to the left side and possibly to the bench in nickel situations. Apparently the IDP landscape isn't interested now that he's not immediately likely to play MLB. For a guy that's getting drafted as a LB5 in many leagues - he's the LB68 in the IDP 200 - he's an absolute steal as a guy who will vastly outperform his draft position.

I'm not buying the new hype on Derrick Johnson. He's a very nice player, but he was getting more and more snaps as Kansas City's ROLB as 2007 progressed. He still managed just 83 solos alongside what was supposed to be a marginally talented MLB behind a weak DT unit. He's much more likely to finish outside the top 25 again than ascend to Keith Bulluck v 2004 status.

He's not as undervalued now as he was earlier in the summer, but Channing Crowder can still be had as your LB3 in many leagues with knowledgeable owners. Concerns over the 3-4 front aside, there's no one else in the Miami front seven to compete for tackles. With as much as the Dolphin defense is likely to be on the field this year, Crowder should cruise to 95 solos. He's this season's D.J. Williams.

Crowder's not the only guy on the Miami defense who's currently being drafted well outside his likely value. On the undervalued side, IDP owners are all but ignoring SS Yeremiah Bell. Bell has very little competition for the in-the-box safety role and is a known solid tackling/big play maker who's sitting behind a very questionable front seven on a defense that should provide plenty of opportunity. He's a DB2 value in a DB5 package. Meanwhile, owners continue to ignore the 3-4 front expecting Vonnie Holliday, Matt Roth or Phillip Merling to have IDP value. It ain't happening.

For those of you that missed my 1000+ word case for Jared Mayo and my pimping him repeatedly on our weekly IDP podcast, here's your final warning. Mayo is the most talented LB of this season's crop of rookies. While you're leaguemates are fussing over Belichick's scheme and reaching for Curtis Lofton (who won't be an every-down player this season unless Keith Brooking flops), a smallish Jordon Dizon who's no lock to join the starting lineup until it's too late to matter and a well behind the curve due to his holdout Keith Rivers, you can still get Mayo as your LB4 or LB5. It really shouldn't be a surprise to see Mayo, Belichick's handpicked ILB of the future, already outplaying a journeyman with little ILB experience like Victor Hobson. I'm not arguing that Mayo is this season's Patrick Willis or Jon Beason, but he's clearly got LB2 potential - immediately.

Ignore old man Rodney Harrison at your own peril. You'll probably have to back him up to cover yourself against an injury that costs Harrison a week or two now and then, but there's no reason not to expect Harrison to continue his big production (57 solos, two INT, six PD) over his last ten games in the 2007 regular season and playoffs into 2008.

Don't count on Oakland OLB Thomas Howard for big numbers this season. A healthy Derrick Burgess and Tommy Kelly in front of underrated all-around MLB Kirk Morrison and playmaking in-the-box SS Gibril Wilson will make it all but impossible for Howard to hit 80 solo tackles this season. If Wilson and better fit at FS Michael Huff make any contribution in coverage, Howard's impressive number of big plays from last year might dry up too. A 75 solo tackle OLB with average peripherals has little business in your lineup in most IDP systems.

I'm expecting a sizable rebound in tackles for Pittsburgh ILB James Farrior this year. Since he's done well with below-average tackle opportunity before, Farrior's drop in solo tackles last season smells like a fluke. An additional 10 solos and his usual big play value makes Farrior better than the LB4 (ADP 96 overall) tier in which he's being drafted.

Unless you're in a big play league or think he is a perennial eight interception per season player, I don't get the hype surrounding Antonio Cromartie. Sure, he's big and physical with amazing ball skills and athletic ability. But, he's likely to be targeted less and less as the season wears on and didn't exactly rack up solos as a starter. He's being drafted as a DB3 and CB1 with little regard to scoring system. Those owners should prepare to be disappointed.

I've never been a big fan of the volatility of Julius Peppers and I don't necessarily buy into the expectation of a big bump in value for a LDE that's being moved to RDE. But if the reports about Peppers' play early in camp are true, look for Peppers to have a huge season in his contract year. He'll probably still be volatile, but a motivated Peppers has to be considered a top five player even with the glut of all-around players at the top of the DL ranks this season.

I have a healthy respect for the effect concussions can have on a football player, but I still like Zach Thomas this year. The Dallas 3-4 scheme and surrounding cast is favorable enough for Thomas to push 95 solos, even if the Cowboys haven't had a player do that in years. He's being drafted anywhere from a high LB2 to late LB3 in leagues this summer. If you can handle the risk, waiting on Thomas as your LB2 might allow you to build your roster elsewhere with big dividends.

I think Atari Bigby was last year's one-year-wonder DB. His play dropped off significantly with Aaron Rouse getting snaps in rotation last season and that's likely to continue this year. I wouldn't be comfortable with Bigby as a DB1. Apparently, no one else is either. He's the 15th safety off the board by ADP.

People are considering Ray Edwards as a strong DE sleeper candidate. With Jared Allen opposite him, it's a reasonable argument. But I think DT Kevin Williams gets the most benefit. How are teams going to double team Williams between Pat Williams and Allen? Williams could have a huge renaissance season this year.

I also see Madieu Williams as significantly overrated in tackle heavy scoring systems this year. The vastly improved front four in Minnesota will allow the team to hang back in zone coverage with both of its stud all-around safeties. With Darren Sharper more likely to see run support duty than Williams, there just isn't the 70 solo tackle potential that Williams had in Cincinnati. I'm leery of trusting him as a DB2 or drafting him too early as your DB3.

Jonathan Vilma. Draft him with confidence. I'm of the mind that knee problems and a shaky defensive line contributed to his poor seasons in the 3-4 front, but that his confidence level was just as much to blame. Back in a 4-3 front with a solid surrounding cast, Vilma should thrive. Since the knee problems are apparently a thing of the past, there's no reason not to expect Vilma to return to 2005 form. Maybe not 130 solo tackle form, but I wouldn't bet against 95+.

I think Antonio Pierce will easily outperform his LB17 ADP. He's a great fit for the Giants aggressive scheme and was thriving before an ankle injury slowed him down in the second half of 2007. With Gibril Wilson gone and an undistinguished group at OLB, Pierce should have plenty of opportunity to regain his dual threat ability as a tackler and big play artist.

I think Gaines Adams makes the leap to double digit sacks this season. He won't be as destructive as Mario Williams was during the second half of 2007, but he'll join the long line of feared Tampa-2 edge rushers over the past decade.

I can't advocate taking him as more than a DB3, but I see LaRon Landry proving that a roving centerfielding free safety can have consistent IDP value this year. The Redskins should have a very solid pass rush and have enough talent at corner that Landry shouldn't have to babysit one side or the other while patrolling for big plays. He's a better all-around player than guys like Ken Hamlin and Ed Reed. His year-end ranking will reflect that.

We'll see what kind of hit rate we get on these ramblings come January. Best of luck in all your IDP drafts this year.

As always, questions, comments, suggestions and corrections are welcome by e-mail at bramel@footballguys.com.