IDP - Big Play Strategy

  Posted 8/12 by Jene Bramel, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

While there's no "standard" scoring system for IDP leagues, a clear majority of IDP systems are considered tackle-heavy to tackle-neutral. There's no hard science to it, but since the best pass rushing OLBs won't appear in the top 25 in the year-end rankings until a sack is awarded at least 3.5x the points of a solo tackle, a big play heavy system is generally considered to have a sack-to-tackle scoring ratio of 3.5:1 or more. In a poll on the FBG IDP Forum two years ago, tackle-neutral/heavy scoring systems outnumbered big play heavy systems by more than two to one. IDP leagues with a true big play bias (ratio of 5:1 or greater) were outnumbered by nearly twelve to one.

Since the FBG default IDP scoring is slightly tackle heavy (2.67:1 ratio), our top 60 positional rankings will often not include some of the better big play options. That's an unintentional byproduct of our system rather than an indictment of big play scoring IDP leagues. We lovers of defensive football fully understand how important a big play is to a defense looking to get off the field quickly or turn the ball over and potentially score points for their team. So let's remedy that discrepancy with a quick look at some basic big play strategy and a few targets that don't show up in our default rankings.

As with any league, it's critical to understand exactly how a change in the scoring system affects your expected player rankings. Using the MyFBG customized ranking tool and fellow staffer John Norton's early August projections, here's a quick look at how the value of certain classes of player can change as your scoring system changes.

At a glance, a few things are readily apparent.

First and foremost, although a "big play" defender gains value as the sack-to-tackle ratio increases, it's not as simple as grabbing any rush OLB or pass rushing DE. Not surprisingly, stud edge rushing OLBs like DeMarcus Ware and Shawne Merriman scream up the rank lists as the value of a big play increases and a solo tackle decreases. All-around players like James Harrison and Shaun Phillips go from being replacement level players with weekly matchup upside to LB2 options. But one-dimensional players who won't hit reasonable tackle numbers or mid-double-digit sacks like Kamerion Wimbley or Manny Lawson still don't have great value except in the most extreme ratios. They don't deserve to be drafted over steady tackling options like Ernie Sims, even though he drops two full tiers in the rankings.

Similar conclusions can be drawn for defensive linemen. Stud two-way defensive ends are stud ends regardless of scoring system. One dimensional edge rushers like John Abraham or Mark Anderson become better starting options as the sack-to-tackle ratio increases, but don't become the studs that the pass-rushing OLBs do. However, solid tackling ends and tackles without much big play potential like Kelly Gregg drop much more significantly in the rankings than do their LB counterparts.

Defensive backs fall somewhere in between. In general, the all-around players - corners or safeties with ball skills and run support ability - still ride a good mix of solo tackles and coverage plays to the top of the rankings. Kerry Rhodes and Charles Tillman hold top value regardless of system. Players with solid tackle ability and below average big play production (i.e. Antoine Winfield) drop some, but are still much more valuable than players with replacement level tackle production and above-average big play numbers (i.e. Ken Hamlin). Stud big play options like Antonio Cromartie get significant bumps in value, but have less upside than the one-dimensional big play linebackers. And like the DL and LB position, solid big play stats are still not enough to elevate poor tacklers like Ed Reed into starting tier value.

While it's not shown in the limited table above, it's also important to note that the depth of the top tiers is shallower and the difference between the tiers larger in big play leagues than in tackle-heavy or neutral leagues. In the most extreme big play systems, it's often correct to reach for the very best and most consistent players at each position. Unlike systems that rely on tackles for value, the high-upside plays an IDP owner likes to target late are significantly riskier in a big play system. If Kamerion Wimbley or Manny Lawson doesn't get the double digit sacks you hope for, you've got a complete disaster on your hands. The same goes for players like Antonio Cromartie. Unless you're very risk-tolerant, it's best to let your leaguemates risk their seasons on those sort of players while you pay the draft price necessary to grab Ware or Rhodes or elect to take less sexy, but safer all-around players like Shaun Phillips and Julian Peterson and Charles Tillman.

Let's try to apply those strategies to the 2008 crop of big play potentials. Who has a ceiling high enough and likely enough to hit to risk drafting ahead of a steadier performer? Who are some under-the-radar all-around talents that you can get without feeling like you must risk taking a stud a round earlier than you'd like?

Defensive Linemen

• Elvis Dumervil - Dumervil has allayed all concerns about his size preventing him from racking up sacks in the NFL and he's been a surprisingly solid tackle option (into the mid-30s last year).
• Robert Mathis - Mathis looks to be getting more snaps early this season while Dwight Freeney is brought along slowly. Once a 50 solo, 10 sack player, he might still be had after 25 DL go off the board.
• Darryl Tapp - Tapp, like Dumervil, showed some run support ability to go with his explosive, multi-sack potential in his sophomore season. He could be primed for a breakthrough in a big play system.

Matchup Plays - Dewayne White, Chris Clemons, Bobby McCray, Cliff Avril, Quentin Groves

Linebackers

• Adalius Thomas - Back into his favored OLB role, Thomas is the sort of all-around player that can ride 70 solos and near double digit sacks to a top ten finish in big play systems.
• Mathias Kiwanuka - Kiwanuka had an impressive number of solos as a LB before he got hurt and could be a very sneaky 65-8+ guy this year.
• Lamarr Woodley - Risky, but also fits the all-around profile.

Sneaky Upside Plays - A.J. Hawk, Anthony Spencer, Lawrence Timmons

Defensive Backs

• Leon Hall - Cover corner finally getting a chance at every down man coverage who knows how to support the run on a team with so-so linebackers.
• Chris Hope - Everybody is ignoring Hope after his slow start to 2007 and season-ending injury. How soon we forget his solid tackling and ball-hawking play.
• LaRon Landry - May be every bit as talented and valuable in a big play league as his former teammate Sean Taylor.

More Consistent Than You'd Think - Johnathan Joseph, Darren Sharper, Yeremiah Bell

Hope all you big play IDPers appreciated the extra attention. Best of luck mining for turnover gold this season.

As always, questions, comments, suggestions and corrections are welcome by e-mail at bramel@footballguys.com.