IDP Strong/Weak Plays - Week 2

Posted 9/11 by Anthony Borbely, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

This will be a weekly feature for IDP owners out there who are having some troubles deciding who to start on Sundays. I'm going to analyze the statistics in a few different ways to find favorable matchups and unfavorable matchups and then point out some players who are most likely to be affected by those matchups. I'll provide the reasoning behind these selections so you can think about it and decide for yourselves. I will also review my picks from the week before so you can see how accurate the picks have been. As most people know, predicting performance on a game by game basis can be difficult for offensive players, but that difficulty is often exaggerated with IDPs. A big play or two can drastically change the fantasy points of an IDP, which makes them tougher to predict than offensive players.

Matchups are important, but there are so many other variables that come into play that sometimes you have to just stick with your best players and hope they come through with just one or two big plays. In general, I advise playing your studs, and then mixing in some other players to put your lineup together. Hopefully some of the players listed below can help you with some tough lineup decisions.

One thing that I expect to be a common theme in the selections will be the inconsistent sack totals of the defensive linemen. In FBG scoring, if a player gets a sack, it amounts to 5.5 points (1 sack, 1 solo tackle). With the cutoff at 7.5 points, if a lineman gets a sack, he has a very good chance to make the cutoff. I expect the DL hits and misses to be the toughest to predict all year, because of the difficulty in predicting sacks, and the weight that one sack carries in the point totals.

A brief note about the hit rates: To provide an objective standard to evaluate these selections, 7.5 fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for DL, ten fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for LB, and nine fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for DB. Thus, when a player is listed as a strong start, that means I think he has a good chance to hit the cutoff point based on his matchup, and when I say a player is a weak start, that means I think he has a good chance to be below the cutoff point. I will evaluate my success throughout the season to try and provide you with the information you need to make your starting decisions. I will not pick Patrick Willis as a strong play because we all know he is. I will not pick a scrub as a weak play either. I will try to pick the players in the middle, who are tough choices. For that reason, I believe a 60% hit rate is very good, 55% acceptable, and below 50% not acceptable.

NOTE: As the year goes on, the statistics become more relevant than they will be early in the year, due to the early part of the year having a small sample size of statistics. Please take that into account when analyzing any statistics during the early part of the year.

Best of luck with your starting lineup decisions this week. Feel free to e-mail me at borbely@footballguys.com with any feedback or suggestions regarding this article.

Review of Last Week's Selections

DL Detroit Lions (@ Atlanta Falcons) - DE Dewayne White: 1 solo, 1 asst, 1 sack = 6.5 pts. Miss
DL Cincinnati Bengals (@ Baltimore Ravens) - DE Robert Geathers: 2 solos, 2 asst, 1 FR = 7.5 pts. Hit
LB San Diego Chargers (vs. Carolina Panthers) - ILB Matt Wilhelm: 3 solos, 3 asst = 6.75 pts. Miss
LB New Orleans Saints (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers) - MLB Jonathan Vilma: 7 solos, 2 asst = 12 pts. Hit
DB Kansas City Chiefs (@ New England Patriots) - CB Brandon Flowers: 5 solos, 1 asst = 8.25 pts. Miss
DB Baltimore Ravens (vs. Cincinnati Bengals) - SS Dawan Landry: 5 solos = 7.5 pts. Miss

Strong Plays:
Hit rate for week 1: 2 of 6, 33%
Hit rate for season: 2 of 6, 33%

DL Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ New Orleans Saints) - DE Gaines Adams: 0 pts. Hit
DL Chicago Bears (@ Indianapolis Colts) - DE Adewale Ogunleye: 5 solos, 1 asst = 8.25 pts. Miss
LB Minnesota Vikings (@ Green Bay Packers) - MLB E.J. Henderson: 4 solos, 1 asst, 1 FF = 10.75 pts. Miss
LB Indianapolis Colts (vs. Chicago Bears) - MLB Gary Brackett: 6 solos, 1 asst = 9.75 pts. Hit
DB Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Tennessee Titans) - FS Reggie Nelson: 4 solos = 6 pts. Hit
DB New York Giants (vs. Washington Redskins) - FS Kenny Phillips: 4 solos = 6 pts. Hit

Weak Plays:
Hit rate for week 1: 4 of 6, 67%
Hit rate for season: 4 of 6, 67%

This Week's Strong Plays

DL New York Giants (@ St. Louis Rams) - DE Mathias Kiwanuka
Kiwanuka faces a Rams team that was beaten up across the board against the Eagles in week one. Marc Bulger took a beating and now faces the great defense of the Giants. Get Kiwanuka in your lineups this week.
DL Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Tennessee Titans) - DE Robert Geathers
The Titans are starting slow-footed QB Kerry Collins. Geathers should not only have sack opportunities, he should rack up a decent number of tackles against an expected high number of rush attempts by Tennessee.
LB Indianapolis Colts (@ Minnesota Vikings) - MLB Gary Brackett
The Vikings should run the ball a lot and throw a lot of short passes, which bodes well for Brackett. The Bears shredded the Colt's run defense, and now the Colts get to face Adrian Peterson. Brackett should be in your lineup this week.
LB Cleveland Browns (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers) - ILB D'Qwell Jackson
The Steelers ran the ball almost 40 times in week one and the Browns run defense is not good enough to stop them. Expect Jackson to see a lot of Willie Parker and company this week. He should have a ton of chances to rack up tackles.
DB Tennessee Titans (@ Cincinnati Bengals) - CB Nick Harper
Harper has always been good in run support and that, combined with an expected improvement by the Bengals passing game, makes Harper a great play in week two.
DB Washington Redskins (vs. New Orleans Saints) - FS LaRon Landry
The Saints like to throw the ball a lot and that is unlikely to change despite the injury to Marques Colston. There are rumblings that Landry may play closer to the line at times. He should be a solid start regardless of how he lines up.

This Week's Weak Plays

DL Washington Redskins (vs. New Orleans Saints) - DE Andre Carter
Carter is not easy to sit, but Brees is very hard to sack and if there was ever a week to sit him, this is it.
DL Denver Broncos (vs. San Diego Chargers) - DE Elvis Dumervil
Rivers is another QB who is tough to sack and Dumervil is not a great run defender. Expect his opportunities to be limited this week.
LB Green Bay Packers (vs. Detroit Lions) - WLB A.J. Hawk
The Lions defense was so bad that it is hard to imagine the Lions being close in this game. They will likely be throwing early and often and that will limit Hawk's chances. He is a risky play this week.
LB Pittsburgh Steelers (@ Cleveland Browns) - ILB James Farrior
Farrior is a tough call this week, but the Pittsburgh run game looks so good that Farrior may not be on the field a lot and thus is not a great play.
DB New Orleans Saints (@ Washington Redskins) - FS Kevin Kaesviharn
Kaesviharn had a solid game last week, but the Redskins do not throw deep much and the tackle in run defense figure to be eaten up by Jonathan Vilma and Roman Harper. Sit Kaesviharn this week due to a poor matchup.
DB Buffalo Bills (@ Jacksonville Jaguars) - SS Donte Whitner
The front seven of the Bills was exceptional last week and with the Jags not normally being a passing team, Whitner may not have a lot of opportunities.

FBG IDP Scoring

Solo/Asst = 1.5 pts / 0.75 pts
Sacks = 4 pts
INT = 5 pts
FF/FR = 4 pts
PD = 1.5 pts