Mission Impossible! - IDP

Posted 8/21 by Anthony Borbely, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Well, maybe it is not impossible, but you get the point. Every season there are players who are very tough to rank for a multitude of reasons, such as durability, questionable performance, a hot shot young player behind them, or any number of other reasons. Sometimes I wish I could just rank the players who seem to fit nicely into a slot, but it does not work that way. I am going to list some of the players who were toughest for me to rank, along with the reasons.

Defensive Ends

Julius Peppers, Carolina Panthers - What a shock…the most inconsistent top ten player at any position is on my list. Peppers is a superior talent and has some big games, but he also is prone to more clunkers than any other top lineman. He has been a top five DL in two of the last four seasons, is in a contract year, and has been moved to the pass rush friendly right DE spot, so there are some positives heading into the season. I literally could rank Peppers anywhere from first to 20th and not be wrong.

Leonard Little, St. Louis Rams - Little only played seven games in 2007 before suffering a season-ending injury, an injury which was partially responsible for his lack of production last year. Prior to that, Little had averaged 42 solos and more than 10 sacks over the previous five seasons. Considering Little will turn 34 years old during the year, there is some cause for concern, but he has reportedly looked solid in camp. I think a mid to low DL2 is justified, but I would not blame anyone for taking him earlier. I am a bit leery because of his age and thus could not rank him any higher.

Robert Mathis, Indianapolis Colts - Mathis is an elite pass rusher, but has struggled mightily at time in run defense. In fact, the Colts began to take Mathis out on some running downs last year and that dramatically lowered his fantasy value. Mathis has been a top ten DL in the past, but if the Colts continue to remove him on some running downs, he will be nothing more than a low end DL2 at best.

Jamaal Anderson, Atlanta Falcons - Anderson had a disappointing rookie season, but people have to realize that defensive ends often have a steep learning curve when entering the NFL. Anderson, a first round pick in 2007, did not register a sack all year. The question is does he rebound, or could he be a bust? He has the size and skill set to be an above average DL and my guess is he will improve this year. He has the upside I look for in the mid DL3 range and that is as high as I could rank him. There is a downside, but a third DL is not hard to find during the year, so the possible reward outweighs any risk there may be.

Mark Anderson/Alex Brown, Chicago Bears - The distribution of playing time for Anderson and Brown makes it difficult to assess them. Anderson played more snaps early in the season following his stellar 2006 rookie season, but his deficiencies in run defense forced the Bears to limit his snaps. Alex Brown was the main beneficiary of the playing time lost by Anderson. How this shakes out in 2008 is anyone's guess. Remember that Anderson put up big numbers when the Bears limited his snaps in 2006. Brown is an underrated fantasy DL who has been in the top 20 on three different occasions. But with Anderson almost certain to play on passing downs, Brown has some limitations. Both have to be considered in the mid to low DL3 area as long as the playing time for both is in question.

Linebackers

D.J. Williams, Denver Broncos - Williams put up monster numbers last year when he played MLB, finally rewarding the patient owners who held him for a few years. Despite that, Denver was not happy with the run defense and Williams is moving to WLB. While that is not as good for fantasy owners as playing MLB, it is still a premier fantasy spot. The opinions vary on how successful he will be. I can see him in the top ten as easily as being in the mid 20s. I am optimistic and rank him as a high-end LB2, but there are risks, mostly associated with the projected tackle numbers.

Keith Bullock, Tennessee Titans - After being the premier fantasy LB for several years, Bullock fell off the fantasy map in 2007. He only had 68 solo tackles after averaging over 100 in the previous five seasons. Many attributed the falloff to the emergence of Albert Haynesworth, but could there be more to this? After all, 68 solos is a huge drop and one would think Bullock should still have been in the 80-90 range regardless of the team around him. I left him as a mid LB2 because there are too many questions that are unanswered.

Karlos Dansby, Arizona Cardinals - Dansby has as much talent as any LB in the league and because of that, the Cardinals line him up in different spots on the defense. They play a 3-4 most of the time and he has lined up inside and outside. They also play some 4-3 and he has played both WLB and SLB in that alignment. Dansby very well could be a top 10 LB, but his tackle numbers are not dependable enough and the way Arizona uses him makes his projections tough to figure. I rank him near the bottom of the LB2 tier because of the uncertainty I just listed. He could be higher, but at the same time, there is some risk and he could be a LB3 just as easy as a LB1.

Chad Greenway, Minnesota Vikings - Greenway has been lining up at SLB at times in the preseason and that alone is cause for concern. Another issue is the improvement in the Viking's defense. They may be on the field a lot less this year and Greenway's stats could suffer. On the opposite side of the coin is that Greenway did not have all of his speed and burst back last year that he lost after suffering a torn ACL in 2006. I think Greenway is a mid to low end LB3 at best and believe there is more downside than upside.

Zach Thomas, Dallas Cowboys - Thomas has been an elite fantasy LB for a long time, but he is coming off a serious concussion and is going to be 35 years old when the season starts. After years as a 4-3 MLB, Thomas will be playing inside in the 3-4 defense and I am not convinced his skill set fits that defense. There have been rumblings that Thomas will not play on passing downs, but that is still to be determined. There are way too many red flags for me and I have him ranked as a low LB4. I also know that it is entirely possible that Thomas could be productive and vault into the top-20 LBs. After all, he has been productive in the past. But there are just too many risks for my liking.

Defensive Backs

Troy Polamalu, Pittsburgh Steelers - Polamalu has played a full 16 game schedule twice and was a top ten DB both times. There is no questioning his talent, but durability is a big problem with Polamalu. When healthy, he is a dynamic playmaker and elite IDP performer, but injuries are a big concern. Ranking him as a low end DB1 is on the optimistic side, but his upside is too high to rank any lower.

Bernard Pollard, Kansas City Chiefs - Pollard is a solid run defender with questionable coverage skills. Those kinds of safeties make me nervous. Pollard is capable of top ten numbers, but at the same time, he is capable of losing snaps in passing situations. I ranked him in the middle of the DB2 tier, but he could be anywhere from 10 to 30. There is a risk with Pollard this year.

Antonio Cromartie, San Diego Chargers - Cromartie had a tremendous season in 2007, finishing with 10 interceptions. He is not a physical CB who gets a lot of tackles, so his production is heavily tied to big plays. He should improve on last years tackle numbers since he is starting from week one, but it is hard to imagine him approaching 10 picks again. A low DB2 is warranted, but there are several scenarios that could have Cromartie moving significantly up or down in the DB scoring.

Oshiomogho Atogwe, St. Louis Rams - Atogwe had a huge 2007 season for the Rams and like Cromartie, saw his big plays vault him up the DB scoring. I am not sold on his performance last year and rank him as a mid level DB3. It is possible that he could be much higher, but I could see his big play numbers fall drastically, in which case he could be lower than this.

Rodney Harrison, New England Patriots - Harrison is one of the best strong safeties to ever play, but at age 35, he is nearing the end of the road. He did average 4.5 solos in 12 games last year and had he played 16 games, he would have been near the top 20 safeties. I have Harrison as a mid DB4, but in all honesty, I would not be surprised to see one more big year from him. But at his advancing age, I think it's just as likely that he falls off the fantasy map. He is the type of player I look for late in drafts.