Mission Impossible!

Posted 8/21 by Anthony Borbely, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Well, maybe it is not impossible, but you get the point. Every season there are players who are very tough to rank for a multitude of reasons, such as durability, questionable performance, a hot shot young player behind them, or any number of other reasons. Sometimes I wish I could just rank the players who seem to fit nicely into a slot, but it does not work that way. I am going to list some of the players who were toughest for me to rank, along with the reasons.

Quarterbacks

Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers - Delhomme is coming off of ligament replacement surgery and nobody really knows how his elbow will hold up. The Panthers made several changes to the offense, drafting tackle Jeff Otah and RB Jonathan Stewart and signing free agent WRs Muhsin Muhammad and D.J. Hackett. Delhomme has more weapons and could finish anywhere from the top 10 to off the map. I think a high level QB2 is fair, but there is some risk involved.

David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars - In his first season as a starter in 2007, Garrard had a great year, finishing with 18 TDs and only three interceptions. He is known as more of a game manager than a passing QB. I think there are several red flags regarding Garrard, namely durability concerns and poor WRs. I am seeing him drafted as a QB1 and while his PPG suggest he could be a starting fantasy QB, the negatives have to be considered. My final analysis led me to rank him as a mid QB2 and admittedly, that is probably the low end of the range I considered ranking him in. The lack of weapons is the biggest reason why he is not ranked higher, but since he did well last year, it is not out of the question that he could do it again.

Running Backs

Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys - Barber is a tough one to rank. There are some who expect him to see an increased workload. If this happens, it is possible he could lose some effectiveness, especially considering his hard running style. Some think Felix Jones will have a bigger role than Julius Jones did. Jones is a dynamic talent who is best used in the open field. Barber also has been dependent on TDs for his high fantasy numbers and that is always a concern when it comes to projecting a RB. I have him tenth as of this writing and that may be conservative, but there are too many situations that could happen and cause his numbers to be lower than some expect. I would not want to count on him being any higher than this, but he has been too productive in the past to rank any lower. Barber may be the toughest player to rank out of all of them.

Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints - Bush is a ridiculous talent who is capable of putting up huge numbers. He is also capable of putting up pedestrian numbers. A RB who averages less than four yards per carry and does not carry the ball more than 10-12 times per game is not normally anything more than a RB3. But Bush could catch 100 passes someday and put up 15 TDs. I would not want him as more than a mid to high RB2 because of the inconsistency, but if there is a player who has the talent to vault into the top five, it is Bush.

Earnest Graham, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Graham is in what appears to be a great situation, but the problem is that he is an average talent. Players like that are prone to losing their jobs. He may deserve a higher ranking than the low RB2 that I have given him, but there is too much risk for my liking. I would not be surprised to see Graham be a low end RB1, but I also would not be surprised to see him in a RBBC. Proceed with caution.

Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins - Brown is clearly the most talented RB on the Miami roster, but there are several issues. First and foremost, he is coming off a torn ACL. Second, Ricky Williams has been the better RB in camp. Third, he is not the power RB that Parcells likes. It is hard to know when or if Brown will be 100% and that makes it tough to rank Brown. I think his value will be low at the start of the year, but it should rise as the year goes on. The question is when.

All Denver RBs - I have petitioned Joe Bryant and David Dodds to exclude all Denver RBs from the Footballguys rankings as long as Mike Shanahan is the coach there. I'm kidding, but that pretty much sums up my feelings. It is impossible to know how this will shake out. My thought is usually to buy low on the backups and sell high on the starters. I would not consider ranking a Denver starting RB high unless I thought he was a supreme talent.

Wide Receivers

Torry Holt, St. Louis Rams - If Holt was on 90% of the other teams in the NFL, I would consider him for a mid level WR1. But he plays for the potential train wreck known as the Rams and that raises a lot of questions. The offensive line is not good and recently lost two backups to injury. Marc Bulger has been prone to injuries. Isaac Bruce is gone and the other WRs leave a lot to be desired. Holt should still be a low end WR1, but he certainly has a downside this year.

Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers - Smith's situation goes beyond the football field. It is bad enough that he has had injury problems and is being suspended for two games for a fight in camp. But the trust and respect factor from his teammates and coaches is an issue. This has the potential to blow up if anything else happens, and with Smith's past, it is not out of the question. He is much too talented to be lower than a WR1, but there is no way I could rank a player with Smith's problems any higher.

Roy Williams, Detroit Lions - Williams has been an enigma throughout his career and now he has an emerging star in Calvin Johnson playing beside him. Williams had one great year and three injury plagued years in which he did not crack the top 25 in WR scoring. Williams should benefit from the attention that Johnson draws and if he can remain healthy, he should be a safe mid level WR2. Just know that he is capable of top ten numbers if healthy and focused, and WR30 numbers if not.

Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers - Jennings had a great year in 2007, but TDs were a huge part of his high fantasy scoring. TDs are a highly volatile statistic and very hard to predict from year to year. Losing Brett Favre has to hurt the TD totals. I think a low WR2 is fair, but he is capable of better should the receptions increase. Admittedly, I am being very conservative with Jennings. But I find it hard to rank a WR who only had 53 receptions any higher.

Reggie Brown, Philadelphia Eagles - Brown is a classic underachiever. That automatically makes him very hard to rank. He has the talent to be a WR2, but his production has been no better than WR3 caliber. Having a healthy Donovan McNabb should help, but Brown's inconsistency limits how high he can be ranked.

Marvin Harrison/Anthony Gonzalez, Indianapolis Colts - The health of Harrison is a huge factor in deciding where to rank both Harrison and Gonzalez. Harrison is 36 years old and it is tough to know what he has left even if he is healthy. A healthy Harrison could be a WR2. Gonzalez could be a top 25 WR if Harrison does not play. My final determination was to rank Harrison as a mid level WR2 and Gonzalez a WR3. I think Harrison will be healthy, but the Colts may want to limit his snaps because of his age. This is a situation I am avoiding in drafts unless their values change. Both are going a bit too high for my liking.

Tight Ends

Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens - The only question about Heap is his health…and it is a huge question. He is a proven top 5 TE and a proven injury risk. Heap has finished fourth or higher four times, but two times he has only played six games. He has already been banged up in camp this year. I currently have him ranked eighth because of his massive upside, but there is a risk. I think Heap could represent great value in drafts if he falls low enough, but be sure to draft a quality backup should you take the chance.

Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers - Davis is as talented as any TE in football, but he has not produced as of yet. Mike Martz is the new offensive coordinator in San Francisco and his history has not been kind to TEs. However, Martz never had a TE with the talent level that Davis possesses. The question is will Martz take advantage of the mismatches that Davis can provide? My guess is Davis will be too inconsistent to rely on from week to week, but if you are looking for a late upside pick, Davis may be a good pick.