IDP Sleepers - Week 9

Posted 10/30 by Anthony Borbely, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

This article is a weekly look at players generally ranked around the edge of those considered "startable". For the purposes of this article, I will define startable as all players on the edge of starting on a team that starts 2 DL, 2 LBs, and 2 DBs. Therefore, about the middle of DL2, LB2 and DB2 range are usually where the choices begin to get tough. Each position is covered in descending order beginning with the players who have the most prime matchups to those with more risk and less upside to those who are complete reaches. Your mileage may vary, but the idea is to discuss these players and provide you with some analysis that might help you make those difficult lineup decisions a bit easier. I hope that your expertise as an owner has filled your team with enough players that you don't need to consider players outside of the prime cuts discussed here. Good luck and always keep in mind that your feedback and comments are welcome. I also want to thank and give credit to Bob Henry for creating the format for this article.

Defensive Linemen

Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)

Gaines Adams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: After struggling for most of the season, Adams broke out in week eight and had two sacks against Dallas. This week, he faces the Chiefs, who have allowed 22 sacks this season. With Larry Johnson unlikely to play, the Chiefs figure to have problems sustaining a running game against the Buccaneers. The Chiefs have allowed an average of almost two sacks per game to opposing defensive linemen this year. Adams should have another solid game and should be in your lineups this week.

Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)

Mathias Kiwanuka, New York Giants: Despite the retirement of Michael Strahan and the season-ending injury to Osi Umenyiora, the Giants lead the NFL in sacks with 26. Kiwanuka got off to a slow start after moving to DE following the injury to Umenyiora, but he had three sacks last week against the Steelers and has five in his last five games. This week, Kiwanuka has another good matchup against the Cowboys and backup QB Brad Johnson, who was sacked three times last week. The Giants are likely to put a lot of pressure on the slow-footed Johnson this week. Kiwanuka should have some sack opportunities as well as chances in run defense this week.
Alex Brown & Adewale Ogunleye, Chicago Bears: The Bears faces a Lions team that is one of only four teams to allow 25 sacks this year. In the last meeting between these two teams, both Brown and Ogunleye had a sack. With the Lions starting the inexperienced Dan Orlovsky, both Chicago DEs should have a few sack opportunities this week. Brown and Ogunleye each have 19 solos this year and both are solid all around DEs. Start either of them with confidence.

Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)

Darnell Dockett, Arizona Cardinals: Dockett has a solid matchup in week nine against a Rams team that has allowed 24 sacks this year. Dockett plays DE when Arizona lines up in their 3-4 sets and inside when they are in the 4-3. Last week, the Rams allowed a combined 11 solos and two sacks to the Patriot starting DEs, and they run a 3-4 defense most of the time. Dockett is listed as a DT in some of the leagues that separate DE and DT and he is a must start in that instance. In traditional leagues, he is a solid fill-in if you are in need.
Antwan Odom & Robert Geathers, Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals have been a train wreck all season and the defense has been on the field for over 33 minutes per game. Odom and Geathers have not put up gaudy numbers, but they have respectable matchups and if you are in a pinch, they make for decent starts.

If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)

Andre Carter, Washington Redskins: I never could have imagined Cater being called a desperation start when the matchup is good, but that is the reality of his year. Carter has been a huge disappointment with only 13 solos and two sacks all year. He has had five games with one or fewer solos. He did not have a single stat against the Lions last week. This week, he faces the Steelers and he should have ample opportunity to make plays in both run and pass defense. If Carter can't put up some numbers this week, then it may be time to bail on him. Even though he has been a bust thus far, the matchup is right and Carter has been solid in the past. You could do a lot worse than Carter this week.

Linebackers

Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)

Ray Lewis, Baltimore Ravens: In the last two games, MLBs London Fletcher (seven solos, five assists) and Mike Peterson (10/2) have put up huge tackle numbers against the Browns. This week, Lewis looks to continue the trend against the Cleveland running attack led by former Raven Jamal Lewis. LBs have averaged over 21 tackles against Cleveland this year. Even though he has been inconsistent this season, Lewis should be in your lineups this week.

Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)

Zach Thomas, Dallas Cowboys: Thomas has a great matchup against the Giants, who lead the NFL in rushing yards per game with 157. Inside LBs have put up strong numbers against the Giants this year and there is little reason to expect that to change. The Dallas offense has struggled without Tony Romo and they figure to be hard-pressed to score a lot of points this week. The Cowboys should see a lot of Brandon Jacobs and the rest of the New York rushing attack and that should help Thomas put up solid tackle numbers.
Nick Barnett, Green Bay Packers: Prior to this season, Barnett was not a player who would have been considered a sleeper. He was a top ten stud LB who was always in our lineups. But the reality is that Barnett has put up pedestrian numbers all year and starting him is now matchup dependent. He faces a Tennessee team that is second in the NFL in rushing attempts. They have allowed some big games to inside LBs this year and Barnett should be able to continue the trend.

Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)

Paris Lenon, Detroit Lions: A player's situation is often talked about in fantasy football and Lenon is a perfect player to describe what it means. He is a marginal talent, but he plays on a team with a bad offense that can't stay on the field and a porous defense that rarely stops anyone. A MLB on a bad team usually faces a high number of rushing attempts and with that comes numerous tackle opportunities. Lenon faces the Bears this week and their rookie RB Matt Forte averages 21 rushing attempts per game. While Lenon is not the best tackler in the league, he should be a solid sleeper this week due to a great matchup.
Gerald Hayes, Arizona Cardinals: Hayes has a solid matchup and should see a lot of Steven Jackson, assuming Jackson plays. He would be a must start but there are risks involved. First, even though Jackson is expected to play, there is a chance that he will not be ready, which would drastically hurt the St. Louis running game. Second, the Rams defense is not good and the Kurt Warner led passing attack could give Arizona a big early lead, which would force the Rams to throw more. But Jackson is a big part of the passing game and he still should see plenty of carries, which makes Hayes a respectable sleeper this week. Just know that there are risks involved.

If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)

Eric Barton, New York Jets: Barton rarely puts up any peripheral stats, but he averages five total tackles per game and has a solid matchup this week against Buffalo. If you are in bad shape at LB, go ahead and plug Barton into your lineups. He is unlikely to light up the stat sheet, but having a decent number of tackles from a deep sleeper is not all that bad.

Defensive Backs

Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)

Fakhir Brown, St. Louis Rams: Brown returned to the Rams a couple of weeks ago after being cut earlier in the year and he has added some stability to the Rams secondary. He has the traits you want in a fantasy CB, which is being average in coverage, which means he will be targeted, and also being solid in run defense. This week, he faces the Arizona passing machine and balls should be flying all over the place. Expect Brown to put up strong numbers due to numerous expected targets in his direction.

Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)

Daniel Bullocks, Detroit Lions: The Bears are a solid matchup for Bullocks for a few reasons. First, the Bears should be able to control the clock, which means more opportunities for Bullocks. Second, the Bears like to run the ball with rookie Matt Forte. The last reason is the Bears like to throw to their TEs. Bullocks has been one of the few bright spots for the Lions this year and he makes for a good start in week nine.
Brandon Flowers & Brandon Carr, Kansas City Chiefs: The Kansas City rookie corners have a great matchup this week against the Buccaneers. The Bucs like to run the ball and throw short passes in their version of the west coast offense. Both Flowers and Carr have put up big numbers at times and you should feel safe starting either of them this week.

Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)

Deon Grant, Seattle Seahawks: Grant has put up ordinary numbers this year, but he has a great matchup against the Eagles this week. The Eagles feature stud RB Brian Westbrook, who is equally great as a receiver out of the backfield and as a runner. The Eagles employ a lot of shorter passes that are designed to give their WRs a chance to make yards after the catch. Grant should have a chance to make some plays in both run defense and coverage and despite his pedestrian stats, he is a solid sleeper candidate this week.
Lawyer Milloy, Atlanta Falcons: The Raiders give up inconsistent numbers to safeties, largely because their offense is not good from week to week. Milloy rarely puts up any big play numbers, but he can be counted on for 4-5 solos on average. If you are looking for a consistent tackler with a slightly better than average matchup, Milloy is not a bad player to stick in your lineup.

If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)

Abram Elam, New York Jets: Eric Smith is expected to miss this week's game and Elam will replace him at strong safety. He faces a Buffalo team that gives up solid fantasy numbers to safeties. Elam started a handful of games last year and put up decent numbers. If you are desperate, Elam is not the worst player in the world to put in your lineups.