Understanding IDP Dynasty Rankings

Posted 8/17 by Anthony Borbely, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

As a long time IDP dynasty league player, I believe understanding dynasty rankings will go a long way in helping you put together a solid core of players that will help you contend for championships for many years. This article focuses on building a solid IDP dynasty team, and also learning how to analyze rankings. I will be including some of my IDP dynasty rankings with this article, with an explanation of why the players were ranked where they were. Fantasy players are better equipped to use someone's rankings if they have an understanding of the thought process used to rank the players. Everyone must also realize that those of us who provide rankings use different criteria and analyze players in different ways.

There are several factors involved in dynasty rankings that are vastly different from redraft rankings. I will briefly explain how the various factors impact my thinking when I do my dynasty rankings, and then I will get more specific regarding the IDP rankings that I am including with this article.

First on the list, to the surprise of nobody, is the fact that you have to peer into the future in dynasty leagues. A player's age is a key factor in determining where a player gets ranked. The goal should be to build a solid core that will allow you to contend for several years. That is best accomplished with young, talented players. But it doesn't mean you should ignore older players altogether. I generally will have older players ranked at a point where I would not be able to pass them up if I was in a draft. A prime example is Washington Redskins DE Jason Taylor. I have him ranked fifth in redraft, but 18th in dynasty because he is going to be 34 years old when the season starts and is at an age when defensive linemen start to slow down. I believe the players I ranked higher than Taylor in my dynasty rankings are better long-term dynasty players. At the same time, he is still a dominant player and I can't rank him lower than the players currently below him because he is simply a lot better than any of them. Determining where to rank older players is one of the hardest things to do in dynasty rankings. You have to try and project how they will do going forward.

The same thing holds true for rookies and other young, unproven players. The talented rookies have to be ranked somewhere, but where? You have to use your knowledge, scouting reports, news from beat writers, and other things to determine a rookie's long-term outlook with the team that drafted him. Slotting an unproven player in the middle of proven NFL players in dynasty rankings is not easy. There are several factors that go into play in ranking rookies. I consider talent to be at the top of the list, along with opportunity and the scheme they will play in.

Another thing you should be aware of is a players contract situation and also the scheme they play in. Some players may be changing teams in the next year or two, and that can drastically affect their long-term value. A great example of this was the situation last year of Jonathan Vilma. I am going to refer to what I wrote about Vilma in the 2007 version of this article. That probably illustrates this point better than any other situation.

Below, in bold print, are my comments about Vilma that were in last year's dynasty rankings article.

I have him ranked 11th in dynasty. You may ask why I would have him so high, when he really struggles in the 3-4 defense installed in New York by Jets coach Eric Mangini. The reason is because I know Vilma's contract expires after the 2009 season. There are several scenarios' that are possible. One is that Vilma has another subpar season in the 3-4, and the Jets will want to trade him after the season, rather than losing him to free agency. Another is that he may leave as a free agent after the 2009 season because the Jets will not want to pay him as much as he could command on the open market. People sometimes forget that Vilma was the top fantasy LB in 2005, when he played MLB in the 4-3 defense. Should he go to a team that plays a 4-3 defense, he could very well be a top stud LB again. He may not be putting up big numbers right now, but if you look ahead at the possibilities, you may be able to acquire a future top five LB for a great price.

As you can see, there are times when it can pay to look ahead regarding the status of a players contract and the scheme they play in. If you do that and your competition doesn't, you can often find some tremendous value that the other owners will never see. Vilma is now playing MLB in a 4-3 defense for the Saints. He was the top ranked LB the last time he played MLB in a 4-3 defense. If you paid attention to Vilma's contract situation and scheme, you may have bought a stud LB for a cheap price.

A player's contract situation not only affects him, it also affects his backup. If there is a player who plays a prime fantasy position and/or has a talented player behind him, you should be targeting the backup before the starter potentially leaves. You want to do it now because the backup has low current value. One example of this is the situation involving Atlanta WLB Keith Brooking. His contract expires at the end of the season. It seems unlikely that he will return at this time, although it is possible. His backup is Stephen Nicholas, who was drafted in 2007. As the season wears on, you may see fantasy owners cutting bait on Nicholas because he is not going to play much. If you know the contract situation of Brooking, you know that Nicholas could be a nice pickup. You also may be able to trade for Nicholas and get him for a relatively cheap price. Knowing Brooking's situation can make a big difference.

The coaching situations also need to be looked at. If a coach is on the hot seat, you should be prepared for the changes that may occur in the event there is a coaching change. This not only includes the head coach, but also possible changes at both offensive and defensive coordinator. Scheme changes go hand in hand with a coaching change, and can have a drastic effect on a player's value. As stated above, Vilma's last two seasons show how much a coaching or scheme change can affect a player's fantasy value. He was an elite fantasy LB playing MLB in the 4-3 defense, and dropped off significantly when the Jets switched to the 3-4 defense. Unfortunately, it's hard to know what a new coaching staff will do, but if you suspect a player may be in a new scheme due to a coaching change, you should be on top of the situation and prepare several strategies to account for the various possibilities that may occur.

There are a few other things that factor into dynasty rankings, including talent and upside, opportunity to play, the quality of the team a player is on, and the injury history of a player. These items apply to all rankings, not just dynasty. I place a high value on talent in dynasty rankings. Talented players have the best chance to be fantasy studs and I rank them higher than good players who are in a good scheme, and also higher than players who benefit from opportunity, but who don't have elite talent. I look for players with upside and often will have them ranked ahead of players who are more productive, but who don't have as high of a ceiling. The hard part is determining where to rank these players in dynasty rankings. As I stated above, the objective is to build a long-term core of players that can make your team a contender for several years. The middle of the road players who put up decent numbers, but have no upside are easy to find compared to the talented players with a high ceiling. They contribute to a winning team, but studs win championships in fantasy football.

I'm going to delve into my IDP dynasty ranking criteria and explain some of the things I consider when generating my rankings. All of the topics I have discussed to this point are relevant to both offensive and defensive players.

There is one key thing that I give a high priority to when building an IDP dynasty team. I want the majority of my IDP lineup to put up consistent fantasy numbers from week to week and this shows in my rankings. This assumes you aren't in a league that is weighted toward big plays. My rankings use FBG scoring, which is balanced pretty even between tackles and big plays. The most consistent players at any IDP position are those who get a lot of tackles, solo tackles in particular. If most of my starters can put up solid and consistent tackle numbers, it lessens the chance of having a really bad week from your IDP squad because it would be unlikely to see an entire team of consistent tacklers all have a bad week at the same time. If you start anywhere from 8-11 defensive players, and the majority are solid tacklers, you will find that the bad weeks are few and far between. It is fine to have a player or two who are considered big play players, but if you have too many, I think you risk the chance of a bad week because these kind of players tend to have a lot of highs and lows. The benefit is they also are more capable of putting up huge numbers at any time, so a strategy of mostly consistent player, mixed in with a couple of big play performers can be the best of both worlds.

My rankings reflect my strategy in building a championship dynasty team. I place a greater weight to consistent tacklers, so when looking at my rankings, you have to take that into consideration. The point here is that everyone who ranks dynasty players has certain criteria that are a higher priority than other things. It is important to be able to read someone's dynasty rankings and have an understanding of how they determine where to slot the various players. If you understand, then you can use the rankings to your advantage, even the ones you disagree with. Nobody is perfect when ranking, but I think dynasty rankings that come with an explanation can be beneficial to the building of your championship team. I think this article, and associated IDP dynasty rankings will help the fantasy owners understand why I have players ranked where they are.

I have included some of my IDP dynasty ranking with this article. What I did was rank my top 24 players at DL, LB, and DB, and then explain why they are ranked where they are. I also listed "the best of the rest", which are the next 12 players in my rankings. I generally use a two-year window for IDP dynasty rankings. The main reason is that I believe a scheme change has more impact on defensive players than offensive ones.

I hope this article and the associated IDP dynasty rankings will help everyone gain an understanding of the criteria I use to determine where to rank players. I want to wish everyone the best and I hope this information will help you build a championship IDP dynasty team. After all, the objective is to win your league championship. And if you build the correct dynasty team, you can contend for many years to come. Good luck in your quest to build a great IDP dynasty championship team.

Defensive Linemen

Mario Williams, Houston Texans
Williams had a strong year in 2008 and lit up the scoreboard in the second half of the season. Williams, the top overall pick in the 2007 NFL draft, had 26 solos, 11 assists, and 10 sacks in the last eight games. He has as much upside as any DE in the league and is just learning how to play at the pro level. Williams is my top ranked dynasty DL because of his youth (only 23 years old), high ceiling, and arguably being the most talented DL in the league. I do not see a negative in his game and he should continue to get better. I think Williams will regularly put up 50 solos/15 sacks and will not be surprised to see him hit the 20-sack mark at some point in his career.

Jared Allen, Minnesota Vikings
Allen has been the top fantasy DL in each of the last two seasons and many think he is the premier DE in the NFL. Allen is arguably the most well rounded DE in the league and he is usually near the top of the DL list in tackles. He has had three straight years with more than 50 solo tackles, including a ridiculous 66 in 2006. Like Williams, he does not have a hole in his game. I ranked Allen second to Williams because of the three-year age difference and also because I think Williams has a higher ceiling. You can't go wrong with either of them and I literally could have listed them as 1 and 1A.

Osi Umenyiora, New York Giants
Umenyiora is one of the top defensive linemen in football and has very few weaknesses in his game. Over his last 57 games, he has 154 solo tackles, 42.5 sacks, 13 forced fumbles, and eight fumble recoveries. He is an explosive pass rusher and is capable of monster games at any times. I think Williams and Allen are simply better, which is why he is ranked third.

Aaron Kampman, Green Bay Packers
Kampman is one of the best two-way DE in the game and is regularly near the top of the linemen in tackles. He has averaged 53.5 solos over the last four years and has 26 sacks in the last two. His consistency, durability (two missed games in four years), and high tackle numbers are the reasons he is ranked fourth.

Terrell Suggs, Baltimore Ravens
Suggs is another DL who puts up consistently high tackle number, averaging 48 over the last four years. He only had five sacks in 2007, but had averaged almost 10 in the previous four years. He has a lot of talent, has only missed three games in five years, and can be counted on to be near the top of the DL list in tackles, which is why he is ranked fifth.

Trent Cole, Philadelphia Eagles
Cole has turned himself into one of the best DEs in football and has seen his tackle and sack numbers increase in each of his three seasons. He is another player who should be in the 45 solo/10 sack range, which pretty much separates the elite from the next tier. Cole has seen his numbers fall off in the second half of the year, but it was not quite as bad in 2007. The addition of stud cover corner Asante Samuel should give Cole more time to get to the QB. He is a solid DL1 in any format and I feel comfortable ranking him sixth.

Julius Peppers, Carolina Panthers
Peppers is the toughest DL to rank because of his inconsistency. But his talent is impossible to ignore and if he could ever be more consistent, he could vault to the top of the rankings. Even with the spotty play, he has finished in the top four DL in two of the last four years. He moves to the prime pass rushing spot at right DE and that could dramatically help his sack numbers. I decided to rank him seventh because of his ridiculous potential and the belief that the position switch will help his numbers. I could have ranked him anywhere from 1-20 and been justified, so keep that in mind.

Aaron Schobel, Buffalo Bills
Schobel has been one of the most consistent DEs for a long time and usually can be counted on for solid numbers across the board. However, he only had 6.5 sacks last year and he will be 31 years old at the start of the season. I could not rank him higher due to the mild concerns about the decline in sacks and his age, but dropping him lower would not be justifiable because of his strong tackle numbers.

Kyle Vanden Bosch, Tennessee Titans
Vanden Bosch is similar to Schobel in that he puts up consistent tackle numbers from year to year. He has had 12 or more sacks in two of the last three years, but only 6.5 sacks in the other year. I rank him right behind Schobel because I think they are similar players, but Schobel is just a little better in my opinion.

Gaines Adams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Adams had an up and down rookie season in 2007, but over the last eight games, he had 22 solos and four sacks. He has a ton of upside as a pass rusher and was better in run support than many thought he would be. The second half of last year is just the tip of the iceberg for the talented Adams. I have him ranked tenth because I believe he has a lot more pure talent than any DL ranked below him, but I could not justify a higher ranking due to Adams not being an elite DE against the run.

Will Smith, New Orleans Saints
Smith is another player who is likely to hit the 45 solo tackle mark. He is not an elite pass rusher, but 10 sacks are not out of the question. Any player who can approach the 45 solo/10 sack mark is a DL1 candidate. Smith is just outside the top ten because of lower sack numbers than the players above him, but his consistency and youth are why he is not lower.

Justin Tuck, New York Giants
Tuck put up solid numbers while in a rotation with Osi Umenyiora and the since retired Michael Strahan. He should be another DL who should be near the 45/10 mark. I could not justify a higher ranking because of mild concerns about the increase in playing time, but he seems like a safer bet than those ranked lower.

Andre Carter, Washington Redskins
Carter had a solid 2007 season and should benefit this year from the addition of Jason Taylor. He has not been the most consistent player, but he seems to be in a great spot to succeed. The inconsistency kept him from being ranked higher.

Tamba Hali, Kansas City Chiefs
Hali has had seasons of 44 and 46 solos and added 7.5 sacks in each of his two seasons. With the trade of Jared Allen to the Vikings, Hali moves to the right DE spot, and that should give him more sack opportunities. He is a solid run defender and has a lot of upside. I could not justify a higher ranking because he is not an elite pass rusher.

Chris Long, St. Louis Rams
Long was the second overall pick in the 2008 NFL draft and he should have a long and productive career. I see Long as a solid two-way DE, but not as an elite pass rusher, so I believe this ranking is justified. He could easily exceed this, but I'm not comfortable predicting that Long will be a better pick than any player I have ranked higher. I am not big on rookie DEs, so I would temper any enthusiasm for this year. This is strictly a long-term ranking.

Elvis Dumervil, Denver Broncos
Dumervil is a great pass rusher, but his size is a concern when it comes to run defense. He is unlikely to play as many snaps as the players I have ranked above him, but there is no denying the big play ability. I think 40 solos is his ceiling, but if he can be in the 12-sack range as he was last year, he should be a safe DL2.

Patrick Kerney, Seattle Seahawks
Kerney had a monster season in 2007, ranking up 49 solos and 14.5 sacks. However, Kerney has not been a consistent performer during his career and he is getting up in years. I could not justify a higher ranking due to his age and inconsistency, but he is still too solid to rank any lower.

Jason Taylor, Washington Redskins
Taylor has been a stud DL for a long time and has not finished lower than seventh in the DL rankings for the last six years, averaging around 43 solos and 12.5 sacks over that span. The sole reason for the low ranking is the fact that Taylor will be 34 years old when the season starts and he has to slow down eventually. I will not be surprised to see one more elite year, but to expect anything beyond that is pushing it.

Derrick Burgess, Oakland Raiders
Burgess blew up in 2005, finishing with 52 solos and 16 sacks. He had a solid 2006 season, but fell off last year as he battled injuries. Other than his breakout 2005 season, he has never cracked the top 15 DL scorers and that, along with his inconsistency, is the main reason he is ranked here. He has DL1 upside, but his floor is lower than those ranked above him.

Dewayne White, Detroit Lions
White started off strong last year with 24 solos and five sacks in the first eight games before suffering an arm injury. He was not the same the rest of the year. White is moving to the more pass rush friendly right DE spot this year. He has low DL1 upside, but he has not done it for a full season and that is why he is ranked here.

John Abraham, Atlanta Falcons
Abraham had a solid 2007 season and if healthy, should be close to double digit sacks. His tackle numbers are respectable. I can't possibly rank him higher due to his injury history, but considering how well he plays when healthy, I could not rank him lower. Abraham is a classic risk/reward player.

Justin Smith, San Francisco 49ers
Smith is one of the best tackling DL in the game, but his sack numbers are average at best. I could not put Smith any higher because of the low sack numbers and some questions about how he adapts to playing in a 3-4 defense. His solid tackle numbers should make this a safe ranking.

Charles Grant, New Orleans Saints
Grant is another player who puts up solid tackle numbers and pedestrian sack totals. He may be playing inside on passing downs this year. The reasons for his rankings are similar to Smith; low sack numbers with high tackle numbers. Grant is a safe low-end DL2.

Adewale Ogunleye, Chicago Bears
Ogunleye had a career high 53 solos last year to go along with nine sacks. That is the only time Ogunleye has surpassed the 45 solo tackle mark. He is another inconsistent player and when you factor in that he is 31 years old, I could not rank him higher. I do not see him coming close to last year's solo tackle numbers.

Best of the Rest

Jamaal Anderson, Atlanta Falcons
Robert Geathers, Cincinnati Bengals
Leonard Little, St. Louis Rams
Darryl Tapp, Seattle Seahawks
Derrick Harvey, Jacksonville Jaguars
Darnell Dockett, Arizona Cardinals
Amobi Okoye, Houston Texans
Mark Anderson, Chicago Bears
Robert Mathis, Indianapolis Colts
Ray Edwards, Minnesota Vikings
Dwight Freeney, Indianapolis Colts
Alex Brown, Chicago Bears

Linebackers

DeMeco Ryans, Houston Texans
Ryans is a perfect middle linebacker. He has arguably the best instincts of any player in the league and is a sure tackler. He covers a lot of ground and really does not have a weakness. His instincts and tackling ability are why I consider him the best fantasy LB going forward. MLBs with the attributes that Ryans has rarely have a bad year. He should be near the top of the list in tackles every year.

Patrick Willis, San Francisco 49ers
Willis blew up in his rookie year and led the NFL in tackles with 174, including a ridiculous 137 solo tackles. He is the most athletic LB in the league and that was a key factor in him being able to put up huge numbers while playing in the less friendly 3-4 defense. I ranked him second to Ryans because I think Ryans has better instincts, is a better tackler, and plays in a more LB friendly system. Willis has the higher upside and I will not question anyone who ranks him first.

Jon Beason, Carolina Panthers
Beason had some huge games after being named the starter at MLB last year and finished with 140 tackles, including 106 solos. He had 11 games with seven or more solo tackles. Beason was strong in both run support and coverage and used his speed and athleticism to make plays from sideline to sideline. He is a prototype MLB and should be a great one for many years to come. I do not think Beason is as good as the two great LBs at the top of my rankings, but there is no doubt in my mind that Beason will be a stud MLB for a long time.

Jonathan Vilma, New Orleans Saints
Vilma finally got out of New York and away from the 3-4 defense that fit him like a glove that was the wrong size. He is a 4-3 MLB, plain and simple and a stud one at that. The last time he played MLB in a 4-3 defense, Vilma had 173 tackles, including 128 solos, and was the number one fantasy LB. There are some concerns about his knee, but all reports indicate that he is healthy. I have no reservations ranking Vilma fourth and would not be surprised if he were the top LB at some point in the future.

Nick Barnett, Green Bay Packers
Barnett rebounded last year after a lackluster 2006 season, cracking the 100 solo tackle mark and moving into the top five fantasy LBs. Barnett has a good combination of size and speed and is a sure tackler. I see Barnett as one of the safest dynasty LBs and feel that a top five ranking is justified.

Paul Posluszny, Buffalo Bills
Posluszny had a great start to his rookie campaign last year before suffering a season-ending broken arm in week three. That does not change anything to me. Posluszny was a stud in college and looked like a stud last year. He is a tackling machine, pure and simple, and he has great instincts. I have no reservations ranking Posluszny this high after only three pro games. As a matter of fact, I may be too conservative if anything.

Will Witherspoon, St. Louis Rams
Witherspoon has elevated his game since moving to MLB after joining the Rams two years ago. He has had almost 200 solo tackles in his two years with the Rams and is a great pass rushing inside LB. While his sack numbers may drop, the high tackle numbers should remain a constant, which is why he is ranked seventh. He is a good bet to remain in the mid LB1 range for several years.

London Fletcher, Washington Redskins
Fletcher has been one of the best fantasy LBs for a long time and shows no signs of slowing down. He has been in the top six LBs in five of the last six years and has averaged almost 100 solos per year over that time span. However, he is 33 years old and even the great ones are eventually caught by father time. I could not rank him any higher because of his advancing age, but he is just too good to rank any lower.

Brian Urlacher, Chicago Bears
Urlacher has been a top ten fantasy LB in four of the last five seasons in which he played 16 games. He is regularly over 90 solo tackles and usually adds a handful of sacks every year. There are mild concerns about his health, but nothing serious enough to warrant a lower ranking.

Lofa Tatupu, Seattle Seahawks
Tatupu is a consistent producer who can be counted on to get 85-95 solos and a smattering of peripheral numbers. His youth and durability are a plus and he is a pure 4-3 MLB. I ranked him tenth because of his great instincts and because I see him as one of the safest fantasy LBs.

Kirk Morrison, Oakland Raiders
Morrison has turned himself into a great LB and he has averaged more than 95 solo tackles in his three years. His peripheral numbers are rather pedestrian and I have mild reservations about him staying at MLB long-term. That and limited big play numbers are the main reasons he is not ranked higher. He could easily outperform this ranking.

David Harris, New York Jets
Harris had a huge rookie year in 2007. He piled up 90 solo tackles despite not starting the entire year, including a ridiculous 20 solo tackles in week nine. Despite the big tackle numbers, I still have reservations about Harris long-term in the 3-4 defense as well as from a talent perspective. This gut feeling is why he is ranked at the bottom of the LB1 tier. I believe all of the players above him are more talented and/or play in better schemes.

Ernie Sims, Detroit Lions
Sims had a great year in 2007, racking up 134 tackles, including 96 solos. His peripheral numbers are low despite being athletic enough to make big plays. He plays WLB in the Tampa-2 defense, which is one of the prime IDP positions. I could not rank him as a LB1 due to the lack of big plays, but he should remain in the 90-95 solo tackle range, which makes him a solid upper level LB2.

D.J. Williams, Denver Broncos
Williams rewarded his patient fantasy owners with a monster 2007 season, finishing with 106 solo tackles. Despite that, Williams is being moved from the MLB spot to WLB. While WLB is a pretty good fantasy position, it is unlikely that Williams will have the high tackle numbers that he enjoyed last year. I think his athleticism can still place him in the 90-95 solo tackle range and with his big play ability, I feel he will be a solid high-end LB2 for a long time to come.

Barrett Ruud, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ruud got off to a great start last year before tapering off in the second half of the season. He did have a knee injury, but there are questions about whether that was the reason for the drop in production. He seems likely to eclipse the 90 solo tackle number on a regular basis and that makes him a solid LB2. Only mild concerns about his talent keep him from being a dynasty LB1.

Lance Briggs, Chicago Bears
Briggs has had two seasons with over 100 solo tackles and three with less than 85 (he missed two games last year). His big play numbers are average and there are reports that he may already be unhappy with the contract he signed after the 2007 season. Briggs is in a large tier of players and I did not rank him higher because I like the upside of the players ranked above him.

E.J. Henderson, Minnesota Vikings
Henderson had a huge 2007 season, finishing with career highs in solo tackles (95) and sacks (5.5). However, the Vikings appear to be much better on offense and the addition of Jared Allen may lessen the times he rushes the QB. I could see a slight drop in solo tackles and a bigger drop in sacks, which is why he is a mid level LB2. I do not see this changing anytime soon. I think he is one of the riskier LB2 types.

Antonio Pierce, New York Giants
Pierce saw his tackle numbers decline last year after a huge 2006 season in which he racked up 109 solo tackles. Pierce had 80 in only 13 games in 2005, so there is little doubt he can reach 90-95 solos. Mild red flags regarding the drop in production last year and average at best big play numbers are why I have Pierce ranked in the mid LB2 tier.

Jordon Dizon, Detroit Lions
Dizon joins the Lions after a highly productive college career in which h he racked up 463 tackles, including 173 in 2007. Dizon has great instincts and is a fast, athletic player. His size has been mentioned as a detriment, but Zach Thomas and Gary Brackett are just two of the leagues smaller LBs who have been successful. Dizon's instincts and speed are the main reason I ranked him this high as a rookie. I would slightly temper the enthusiasm for the current year because Dizon may not start right away, but it's just a matter of time until he does.

Curtis Lofton, Atlanta Falcons
Lofton is almost a lock to start the season at MLB for Atlanta, but he may only be a 2-down LB this year. That should not have a bearing on dynasty rankings because Lofton has the skills to be a solid every down LB. I have Lofton and Dizon pretty much even long-term. Like Dizon, Lofton may not make an impact this year, but he should be solid down the road.

A.J. Hawk, Green Bay Packers
Hawk had a big rookie season in 2006 before regressing last year. He is one of the most athletic LBs in the league and many felt he was on his way to stardom. Hawk needs to make more plays and be a more consistent tackler, but his upside is too good to rank him any lower than this. He could very well be a LB1 in the future, but it's not a certainty.

Gary Brackett, Indianapolis Colts
Brackett is consistently in the 85-90 solo tackle range and that alone keeps him in the mid to low LB2 tier. He rarely puts up big play numbers and there does not seem to be much upside, so I could not justify a higher ranking, but as a low end LB2, his consistency should make any of his fantasy owners confident.

Karlos Dansby, Arizona Cardinals
Dansby has a load of talent, but he has been very inconsistent and has battled nagging injuries throughout his career. He will be an unrestricted free agent after the 2008 season, but I believe he will remain in Arizona. They have not locked him into one position so it is not easy to rank him. His upside is much higher than the low LB2 ranking I assigned him, but he is too risky to rank any higher because it is unknown how Arizona will use him.

Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots
Mayo has a lot of talent, no question about it and if he went to a team that would play him as a 4-3 MLB, he would have had a much higher ranking. I think he is the most talented of the 2008 LB class, but scheme limitations are why I have him ranked this low. Some believe he will do better despite the scheme, but I am skeptical.

Best of the Rest

Derrick Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs
Keith Bullock, Tennessee Titans
Angelo Crowell, Buffalo Bills
Thomas Howard, Oakland Raiders
Michael Boley, Atlanta Falcons
Keith Rivers, Cincinnati Bengals
Ray Lewis, Baltimore Ravens
Shawne Merriman, San Diego Chargers
Demarcus Ware, Dallas Cowboys
Freddie Keiaho, Indianapolis Colts
Chad Greenway, Minnesota Vikings
Justin Durant, Jacksonville Jaguars

Defensive Backs

Adrian Wilson, Arizona Cardinals
Wilson is the best safety in the NFL. Forget what you saw last year. He is expected to play closer to the line of scrimmage and blitz more this year. He was a top four DB for three consecutive years prior to last year's disaster. Do not let one bad year overshadow three dominant ones, especially when looking at the circumstances. Wilson is clearly the top dynasty DB.

Gibril Wilson, Oakland Raiders
Wilson is one of the best strong safeties in the league and is annually near the top of the DB list in tackles. He has averaged over 80 solos over the last three years and has put up respectable peripheral numbers. The high tackle numbers separate Wilson from the rest of the DBs and make him one of the safest fantasy DBs. The consistently high tackle numbers stand out and are the main reason Wilson is ranked second.

Sean Jones, Cleveland Browns
Jones has turned into one of the best young safeties in the league after struggling with injuries early in his career. He has averaged 70 solos, five picks and 13 passes defended in the last two years. Jones has not cracked the 80 solo tackle mark, but his big play ability has led him to consecutive years ranked in the top six DBs. Jones should be a solid upper end DB1 for many years to come.

Richard Marshall, Carolina Panthers
Marshall has amassed over 70 solos in each of his two seasons in the league despite not being a starter. He has excellent ball skills and is very good in run defense. Marshall is ranked right behind the three elite young strong safeties, but I could not disagree with anyone who ranked him higher.

Bob Sanders, Indianapolis Colts
Sanders is one of the premier defensive players in the NFL and he is the heart and soul of the Colt defense. Injuries have plagued Sanders since entering the league, but that does not stop him from delivering punishing hits to RBs and making great plays in pass defense. I ranked Sanders fifth despite the health concerns because he puts up elite fantasy numbers when he plays. This is another classic risk/reward pick.

Antoine Winfield, Minnesota Vikings
Winfield is one of the best tackling CBs in the league, eclipsing the 80 solo tackle mark three times. The 31-year old Winfield has been a top 10 DB in the three years that he has played all 16 games and likely would have made it two other years that he missed games. Winfield is a prototype cover-2 CB and he makes just enough big plays to be an elite fantasy DB. I ranked Winfield sixth because of his consistency, but could not justify a higher ranking because of his age and the talent level of those above him.

Charles Tillman, Chicago Bears
Tillman is another solid run defending cover-2 CB who can be counted on for 70 plus solos and a handful of big play numbers. Like Winfield, Tillman benefits from the scheme he plays in, which takes advantage of his physical abilities. I could not rank Tillman above Winfield because of the disparity in their tackle numbers, but he is a better option than the rest of the DBs.

Kerry Rhodes, New York Jets
Rhodes is somewhat tough to rank because he can play either SS or FS. He is very good in coverage and equally good playing in the box. His big play numbers are elite, but playing more in coverage lowers his tackle opportunities. I ranked him eighth because he should still be near the top ten no matter how he lines up, and if the Jets ever get a solid free safety with coverage skills, Rhodes could vault near the top of the rankings as a strong safety.

Leigh Bodden, Detroit Lions
Bodden had a career year in 2007, finishing with 76 solos and six interceptions. He is a big physical CB with very good ball skills. Bodden will now play in the Tampa-2 defense that seems to be a perfect fit for his skill set. I ranked Bodden ninth because he is a solid run defender with big play ability and is playing in a scheme that should maximize his talent.

Nate Clements, San Francisco 49ers
Clements is a solid all around CB who has racked up 70 or more solos in two of the last three years. Clements has great ball skills and has not missed a game in his seven-year career. Clements is a safe low end DB1 and I ranked him tenth because of his skills and durability. I did not rank him higher because he has had fewer than 60 solos in four of the last six years.

Troy Polamalu, Pittsburgh Steelers
Polamalu is one of the most talented players in the NFL, combining physical play in run defense with tremendous big play ability. He has had problems staying healthy and that makes Polamalu risky in fantasy leagues. When healthy, he is a good bet for 65-75 solos and a smattering of big plays. I ranked Polamalu near the bottom of the DB1 tier because of his ability, but could not rank him higher because of the injury concerns.

Champ Bailey, Denver Broncos
Bailey is a great cover corner and also a willing run defender who can be counted on for 65-70 solos every year. Bailey's interception and passes defended numbers are very good and combined with his consistent tackle numbers makes him a solid low end DB1. The consistency is why Bailey is ranked twelfth.

Roman Harper, New Orleans Saints
Harper put up some big numbers in 2007 in his first full season as a starter. He showed his versatility by racking up 75 solos, four sacks, and three interceptions. He is a solid run defender, but still needs to improve in coverage. Harper will likely have fewer tackle opportunities due to the additions of Sedrick Ellis and Jonathan Vilma, but 65-70 solos seems well within his reach. I ranked him at the top of the DB2 list because he has more upside than the DBs ranked lower, but the concerns listed above are why he is not ranked higher.

Bernard Pollard, Kansas City Chiefs
Pollard is another player who is tough to rank. He is solid in run support and racked up 74 solos last year. But in pass defense, Pollard is lacking and that is cause for mild concern. The Chiefs play a lot of cover-2 and coverage by the safeties has to be adequate. The only reason Pollard is not a top ten DB is because of the coverage concerns.

Marcus Trufant, Seattle Seahawks
Trufant is a very good cover corner and a willing run defender. He has averaged almost 70 solos per season and has eclipsed the 75 solo tackle mark on two occasions. Trufant has great ball skills, but that sometimes limits his interception numbers, as teams do not throw his way very much. The solid tackle numbers are why he is ranked 15th.

Darrelle Revis, New York Jets
Revis lived up to his first round pick with an outstanding rookie season. He has exceptional ball skills and was a solid run defender, finishing with 74 solo tackles. Revis may not see as many passes his way now that he has experience, but his all around skills should keep him at a mid DB2 level at worst over the long haul.

LaRon Landry, Washington Redskins
Landry's fantasy value took a huge hit last year with the passing of starting FS Sean Taylor. Landry was playing strong safety and had a lot more tackle opportunities. Now he is playing more in coverage and the tackle numbers will be substantially less. Landry's ball skills are excellent and he should still get enough tackles to make himself a solid mid level DB2. Keep an eye on this situation because if they ever move him back to strong safety, Landry would likely be a top-5 fantasy DB.

Chris Harris, Carolina Panthers
Harris had a breakout year for the Panthers last year after they acquired him from the Chicago Bears prior to the season. Harris finished the year with 74 solos and eight forced fumbles. Harris should remain in the 65-70 solo tackle range for the foreseeable future and that makes him a safe long-term DB2.

Chinedum Ndukwe, Cincinnati Bengals
Ndukwe was very impressive as a rookie last year and wound up starting three games. Ndukwe, a seventh round pick, had 11 solos, forced two fumbles, and picked off three passes in those starts. He is a physical safety with solid coverage abilities. The Bengals were impressed enough with Ndukwe to let Madieu Williams leave as a free agent. I am very high on his long-term talent, enough so to make him the 19th ranked dynasty DB.

Brandon Flowers, Kansas City Chiefs
Flowers was a second round pick by the Chiefs and he immediately steps into the starting lineup. Flowers is a solid run defender with good coverage skills and appears to be a perfect fit as a cover-2 CB. I am very high on his talent and like Ndukwe, I like him enough long-term to rank him among my top 20 dynasty DBs.

Madieu Williams, Minnesota Vikings
Williams takes his solid all around safety skills to the Vikings after four years with the Bengals. Williams is a good run defender with solid coverage skills. He may not have the same opportunities for tackles as he did with the Bengals, but his big play numbers may be higher because of the Vikings having a better pass rush. He should be a solid low end DB2.

Donte Whitner, Buffalo Bills
Whitner is a versatile safety and is a good fit in the cover-2 defense that is used by the Bills. Whitner has averaged 67.5 solo tackles in his two years, but has not put up good peripheral numbers. Playing in the cover-2 limits Whitner, but he should have enough tackles to be a solid low end DB2. Should he ever play a more traditional strong safety, he could vault into the top ten, so keep this is mind down the road.

Michael Lewis, San Francisco 49ers
Lewis has been a sure tackling safety for most of his career and has had more than 70 solos in three of his last four years. He is not at his best in coverage and that shows in his pedestrian big play numbers. The concerns about coverage skills makes it tough to rank Lewis higher long-term, but his tackle numbers are too good to rank him any lower. Players like Lewis who put up big numbers and still risk losing their job because part of their game is lacking are good sell high candidates.

Marlin Jackson, Indianapolis Colts
Jackson is a solid CB who is a good fit in the cover-2 defense. He had 69 tackles last year and likely would have eclipsed 70 in 2006 if not for missing two games. Jackson does not put up good peripheral numbers, but his tackle numbers are solid enough to make him a good low end DB2.

Best of the Rest

Chris Hope, Tennessee Titans
Antonio Cromartie, San Diego Chargers
Jermaine Phillips, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Terrence McGee, Buffalo Bills
Rashean Mathis, Jacksonville Jaguars
Oshiomogho Atogwe, St. Louis Rams
Leon Hall, Cincinnati Bengals
Cedric Griffin, Minnesota Vikings
Atari Bigby, Green Bay Packers
Kenny Phillips, New York Giants
Dawan Landry, Baltimore Ravens
Ike Taylor, Pittsburgh Steelers