IDP Buy Low / Sell High - Week 17

Posted 12/24 by Anthony Borbely, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

As a long time IDP dynasty league player, I understand the importance of always looking ahead and trying to be prepared for the future. Trade deadlines may be gone, but the offseason will be here soon, and now is the time to start planning ahead.

For the last few weeks, I have looked at the Buy Low/Sell High IDP players who we should be targeting during the early part of the offseason. Of course, things will change once free agency and the draft get here, but for now, it's time to peer into the future as best we can and see if there are some deals to be made.

Since I have already covered each position over the last four weeks, I am going to switch gears and discuss some important things to look for when deciding who is a good Buy Low or Sell High candidate.

Overachievers/Underachievers: This one is fairly obvious. Proven studs like Nate Clements had disappointing season. There are usually several busts among the high ranked players in any given year. It's our job to sort those out and separate the wheat from the chaff. Take advantage of some of the studs that were busts and make a move to get them from the owners who think their stud days are over. Everyone values players different, and the only way to know who will trade who is to ask. Conversely, several marginal talents put up solid fantasy numbers, such as Paris Lenon. It only takes an opportunity for even the most marginal players to put up strong fantasy numbers. These are the players that should be sold during the season. You can move some of these players during the offseason, but their peak value is when they are putting up strong fantasy numbers during the year.
Coaching/Scheme Changes: This is something that gets overlooked, and you need not look beyond Jonathan Vilma to see how important this is. Vilma played MLB in the 4-3 defense, and was the top fantasy LB in 2005. After the 2005 season, the Jets hired Eric Mangini as coach, and he changed the 4-3 defense to a 3-4. Vilma does not have the skill set to play ILB in the 3-4, and his numbers plummeted. This year, Vilma went to the Saints and played MLB in a 4-3 defense again. He is a top 10 LB again. Scheme matters. Keep an eye on coaching changes, including defensive coordinators. Many of them will bring a different scheme with them, and as we have seen with Vilma, that can make a huge difference.
Experience/Age: This is another fairly obvious thing to pay attention to, but not always. In most cases, I like to buy low on underachieving rookies that I am high on, especially those who don't play a lot, and fall under the radar. Many of them are stuck behind more experienced players, and have to earn their way. I especially like to buy low on rookie defensive ends, because they tend to take longer to develop than players at other positions. With older and more experienced players, it works both ways, depending on your team. If you are rebuilding, then you need to move the older players to contenders and add some picks or younger players with upside. Don't just trade them to trade them. On the other side of the coin, if you are the contender, you can often acquire older players for a pretty cheap price. A lot of owners tend to undervalue older players, and some are not so old that they can't contribute.
Free Agency: This is very important and has a huge bearing on your offseason strategy, including the rookie draft. You must know what is going on around the league, especially with players who are not entrenched as starters, and backups who may start if current starters go to a different team. Knowing the potential free agents will impact you going forward, not only with the players who move, but also the backups who may compete for the open starting job. Buying low on these players is an excellent strategy.
Staying on top of the offseason news: For the serious IDP dynasty player, and even redraft players, who like to stay ahead of the curve, please join the year-round discussion in the IDP forums at Footballguys.com. We talk about everything above and then some, and in great detail. We don't have an offseason there; only a non-playing season.