Posted 10/30 by Sigmund Bloom, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Buy Low
Earnest Graham, RB, Tampa Bay - Graham failed to produce in what
looked like a good matchup, but it's hard to imagine him being kept off the
scoreboard this week vs. Kansas City. Tampa also looks like a team that will
play like a cold weather team in December even though they play in Florida,
leaning on their defense and running game to win, which means 20+ carry games
should be in Graham's future, even with Warrick Dunn stealing 10 of his own.
Graham's dynasty value is also settling. He's running with good power and
showing last year wasn't a fluke. His successful stint at fullback will also
endear him to Jon Gruden. He's a quality RB2 for the stretch run, but his
owners probably don't feel that way after his mediocre October.
Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta - Take a good look at his lines - this
is the last time you'll see three duds in any four week stretch of Turner's
games for a long time. He faced three tough defenses again the run in Carolina,
Chicago, and Philly, and his rookie QB was evolving during that stretch. He
was stuffed at the goal line in the Philly game, which should also become
a rare occurrence, and Turner is still threatening to break long runs when
he gets in the open field. Like Chris Johnson, you hold your breath a little
bit anytime he gets to the second level. Turner is also at the very beginning
of a beautiful future with a young line and maturing stud QB. Think Rudi Johnson
in the good Carson Palmer years.
Chad Ocho Cinco, WR, Cincinnati - Johnson continues to look more
and more like himself every week, even if the Bengals offense continues to
look like a mess. He's throwing himself around on deep balls and making plays
in the air again. His shoulder does not seem to be bothering him at all. Things
can not get much worse statistically, but Johnson is still a premier wide
receiver, he's just stuck on a bad team. If he's on a bad fantasy team, his
owner might discount him too much for being 30 years and a headache, but he's
settled down, and he's the kind of receiver who plays well into his mid-30s.
Toss out an offer for him this week to see where his owner stands.
Santonio Holmes, WR, Pittsburgh - An unexpected missed game, a looming
suspension under the NFL's personal conduct policy, a disappointing first
half of the season - all of these things are clouding Holmes owners from seeing
what they have, a future stud WRs. Holmes has shown deep speed and impeccable
deep ball tracking in his young career, along with the toughness to go over
the middle and run after catch ability to turn short targets into big gains.
His numbers might not reflect it, but he's still a rising star.
Braylon Edwards, WR, Cleveland - Edwards is not going to be held
down for much longer. Derek Anderson is getting more confident by the week,
Rob Chudzinski is getting back to his inspired playcalling of 2007, and the
offensive line is looking like one of the best units in the league again.
His drops will be a problem throughout his career, but Terrell Owens has done
just fine despite being one of the worst scofflaws in the drop department
year in, year out. Edwards is still the elite WR we thought he was before
the season, the storm around the Cleveland offense is beginning to clear.
Sell High
Matt Schaub, QB, Houston - You had to be impressed when Schaub came
back swinging off the ropes when he missed a game while the offense was stuck
in neutral. He and the Texans have turned things around, actually making the
play at the end of the Miami game instead of being on the short end of the
fantastic finish, and fattening up on the Lions and Bengals (at least the
Panthers are making the Cat world proud). If Schaub hasn't been your fantasy
starter during this stretch, this is a very good time to shop him around.
Schaub is sometimes too courageous for his own good, and with teams like the
Ravens and Titans left on the schedule, a visit to the injury report could
be in his future. His numbers are also inflated from facing the little sister
pass defenses of the NFL for the last four games. A team that's hurting at
QB might pay dearly for Schaub this week.
Steve Slaton, RB, Houston - There's a decent chance that Slaton is
going to run into a brick wall in the form of the Vikings and Ravens the next
two weeks. His luster as the breakout rookie RB who seems to score every single
game might wear off after that brutal pair of opponents, greatly dampening
the enthusiasm of any possible trade partner. Right now the visions of Slaton
turning into a Westbrook or Forte light after his hot start are blurring into
games with only a catch or two and an artificial ceiling of 15-18 carries
in any given game. Slaton is a nice RB2/Flex, but if he's 4th or lower on
your depth chart, you should shop him this week, because someone might still
pay the "rookie RB of the moment" price for him.
Plaxico Burress, WR, New York Giants - I am officially getting a
Terrell Owens vibe from Plaxico Burress right now. He had the look of a player
who thinks he's bigger than his team on the sidelines of the game against
his old mates, the Pittsburgh Steelers - who barely even made a halfhearted
attempt to keep Plax when he entered free agency. Even though he caught the
game-winning TD in the Super Bowl, the Giants are beginning to understand
why. Plax has also turned into a chronic presence on the injury report, and
I'm not sure they lost that much when Domenik Hixon was in. Eli Manning is
doing a good job spreading the ball around, so between the off the field issues
and on the field evolution of the offense, Plax may never truly be a #1 wide
receiver for the Giants again. You should probably wait until after the good
matchup vs. the Cowboys to shop him. If your lineup didn't take a big hit
when Plax was out, then you should definitely be ready to move him in dynasty
leagues.
Mewelde Moore, RB, Pittsburgh - Whether or not Willie Parker returns
this week (it looks like he will), he will be back soon, and even if he leaves
the lineup soon after his return, Moore will have trouble putting up good
numbers against the Steelers second half schedule - if he stays healthy himself.
Durability was not Moore's forte in Minnesota. He's also signed to a three
year deal in Pittsburgh, so it's unlikely he has great value in the future
unless Steeler RBs continue to find Ray Lewis killshots and holes in the practice
field next year.
Santana Moss, WR, Washington - Moss sure did put on a show at Detroit
last week. His punt return was Hester-esque, and he continues to look like
the open field threat he was back in his heyday. He also suffered a hamstring
injury, and while that shouldn't sideline him this week, it does bring up
the specter of the injuries that plagued Moss last year and robbed him of
most of his fantasy value. Don't trade him just because, but if you can turn
him into a struggling young stud like Marques Colston or Braylon Edwards,
don't hesitate to do it.