Posted 12/24 by Sigmund Bloom, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Buy Low
Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo - I'm sure many of his owners are in the mood
to sell Evans. He was little to no help in the second half of the season,
but at least he went cold consistently enough that he wasn't in your lineup
for the playoffs. Don't let that overshadow a first half when things were
clicking. Evans averaged over 85 yards a game over the first seven games of
the season, and never fell below 65 during that stretch. Evans is entering
his prime and he still has elite ability. What's been missing is the robust
passing offense with consistent QB play and some complimentary threats that
can punish defenses that focus on Evans. Even if those elements don't fall
into place over the next few years to unlock Evans true potential, he showed
us that he can still be a top 10 WR in a dysfunctional offense back in 2006.
Get in while his owners feel disgruntled with his performance.
Jerricho Cotchery, WR, New York Jets - Boy were we wrong when we
thought Cotchery would actually benefit from the presence of Brett Favre.
The deep passing game never really got on track this year, and Cotchery's
fantasy owners were the victims of Favre's fit and starts. The NC State product
is still on the upside of his career, and no matter who the QB is, he'll gain
prominence in the passing attack as Laveranues Coles enters the last year
of his contract. Cotchery has the all around game to be a top 20 fantasy WR,
and he'll likely break into that group in next season or two.
Santonio Holmes, WR, Pittsburgh - There were high hopes for Holmes
around the fantasy world coming into this season, but 2008 will be remembered
as a disappointment for him. Holmes has flashed the electric ability to gain
separation and playmaking athleticism that made him a first round pick, but
he also got suspended for a game because of an arrest for marijuana possession,
and had his share of drops and mental lapses. Ben Roethlisberger has been
up and down, but at least the Steelers seemed to show more proficiency in
and willingness to lean on the passing game as the season went on. Holmes
has the profile to be the kind of WR a QB can rely on to get the tough third
down catch and break free for the deep ball, he should eventually grow into
that role as he enters his fourth season in 2009.
Zach Miller, TE, Oakland - When you look at Zach Miller's numbers,
remember that he was stranded in the worst passing offense in the league,
surrounded by the worst set of wide receivers in the league, and saddled with
one of the most inconsistent QBs in the league. He left some yards and scores
on the field with the mistakes of a young player only in his second season.
The writing is on the wall, Miller is a future fantasy stud at TE. If he can
be a viable option in this excuse for a passing game, he can be the #1 overall
TE if things ever get better.
Earnest Graham, RB, Tampa Bay - I remain convinced that Graham is
the best RB on the Tampa roster, and I think they know it, too. I'm proud
of Cadillac for coming all the way back, but Graham's rugged style is better
suited for the Bucs drive blocking young offensive line. Don't forget that
Cadillac hasn't exactly been the picture of health during his career. I believe
that somehow Graham finds himself back on top of the depth chart at some point
in 2009. He was on pace for over 1250 total yards and seven TDs this season,
and that includes the timeshare with Warrick Dunn and one game played mostly
at fullback. Graham can probably be had for a song right now, so start humming
some trade offers.
Sell High
Kurt Warner, QB, Arizona - If Warner got you to your title game,
I hope you had a good backup. If you did have a good backup, good enough that
you'd feel comfortable starting them every week, then you should be open to
dealing Warner this offseason. His numbers were terrific, but the Cards seemed
to become easier to defend once defenses didn't honor the run. Warner took
a lot of hits this year, and it seemed like he took more as the year went
on. If you can get top 10 QB value for Warner, or he's a piece your trade
partner insists on to get a bigger deal done, cash in on Warner's resurgence
now.
Ryan Grant, RB, Green Bay - As the season went on, Grant ran as hard
as we remember from last season, and with Brandon Jackson's injury, he even
caught a few passes. It's still hard to deny that he's an average back. Grant
doesn't waste time in the backfield, and he hits the hole at full speed, but
he creates little to nothing on his own. When the line is getting a good push,
Grant is an RB1, when they aren't, he's barely good enough to be your flex.
There are some backs that are just so talented that you have to give them
most of the RB touches, even if you have good RBs behind him on the depth
chart. It's becoming clear that Grant isn't one of those backs. If you can
get top 20 RB value or a top 3 rookie pick in a deal for Grant this offseason,
don't hesitate.
Derrick Ward, RB, New York Giants - Ward's value probably won't truly
"mature" until he gets signed to start elsewhere, so trading him
now could be a foolish move. This a sell high moment for Ward if someone else
in your league was watching Sunday night and is thinking to themselves "I
have to get this guy". Some might even see him as the next Michael Turner,
from backup to the top 10. That is certainly possible, but there are not so
comforting possibilities. New York could re-sign Jacobs and Ward, again making
him an adequate flex, but nothing more except when Jacobs is out. He could
get signed to a team going nowhere. He could get signed to a team that wants
to install a robust two RB attack. Let's also remember that Ward hasn't had
a spotless durability record, suffering a groin injury, ankle injury, and
broken fibula in 2007 - in fact, that's probably what kept him getting more
interest on the open market this past offseason. If you can get a "hot
RB of the moment" price for Ward, pull the trigger.
Shaun Hill, QB, San Francisco 49ers - I have to say, Hill keeps proving
the doubters wrong - well, at least the fantasy doubters. He didn't sting
anyone who played him since he became a starter, and even posted a few top
10 weeks. Last week was almost the exception, as Hill notched three interceptions
and almost found the bench before getting two late TD passes to lead the 49ers
to a dramatic come from behind victory. Hill has backup QB tools, and sometimes
he gets starter results from them, but he's no "QB of the future",
and he might not even be the QB of the present come 2009. If Mike Martz is
not with San Francisco next year, Hill's possible value as the starter takes
a big hit. Would you really want to trust him in an important fantasy game?
If you can squeeze any value out of Hill in the offseason, take advantage
of the opportunity.
Clinton Portis, RB, Washington - The decline is coming for Portis.
Maybe he posts another 300+ carry season next year, heck maybe two. It's also
possible that Portis' last stretch as a fantasy RB1 was the first half of
this year, and he never regains top form again. Portis will only be 28 when
the 2009 season starts, but he has the mileage of back in his 30s, and he
doesn't have the ideal compact NFL RB build to absorb punishment. Portis next
major injury will probably kill whatever interest he can garner on the fantasy
trade market. As we get closer to the 2009 season, people will think more
about his 1600+ total yards and 8 TDs than the fact that he was questionable
from late October and scored most of his eight TDs when Washington's offense
was running smoothly - which seems like a distant memory now. If you can get
top 15-20 overall player value for Portis, or otherwise think it's time to
rebuild, cut the cord this offseason.
