Time to Get Off the Bandwagon

  Posted 7/20 by Mark Wimer, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

At this point in the preseason, we've seen minicamps and OTAs unfold and we're starting to catch a glimpse of how all the starting lineups may shape up. For many of us hardcore fantasy football players who have been discussing, debating and anticipating the 2007 regular season since the NFL draft in April, it's also time to reevaluate our estimation of some of our favorite players. Maybe you've been a Robert Meachem booster since the draft, or were a big Mike Martz/Drew Stanton believer - the point is, you've invested a lot of time and energy arguing the best case for certain NFL players, probably on the Shark Pool message board here at Footballguys.com as well as elsewhere.

Now it's gut-check time: in certain cases, it is time to admit that certain players are, disappointingly, not likely to live up to your May/June expectations. There are numerous examples of players that look primed to disappoint, but one NFL player in particular stands out as headed for almost certain disaster this year: Michael Vick.

Leaving aside all questions of guilt or innocence, the fact is that Vick has been indicted by the federal government, and according to numerous sources, the Fed's conviction rate runs around 95%. He assured Arthur Blank, his team's owner, and NFL commissioner Roger Goodell (during a face to face meeting at the NFL Draft on April 28th) that he had nothing to do with the alleged activities at his Virginia property. The 18-page federal indictment paints a dramatically different picture. While no one is certain what action or actions the Falcons/the NFL may take in regards to this matter, one thing is clear: Vick's legal woes will disrupt the Falcons’ training camp. His arraignment on the charges is slated for July 26th - the day the Falcons' training camp opens. So, to open training camp, Vick will be in Richmond VA, rather than in pads with his teammates. It appears his season, career and freedom may be in serious jeopardy as of mid-July. That’s Bad Newz for Vick owners.

As fantasy football fanatics, we all invest significant amounts of time and research in player analysis, and we all love to talk about our favorite fantasy prospects. However, if you're going to win your fantasy league, you have to know when to cut your losses - and admit that you were wrong. It happens to all of us, even the very best of us - I was down on Steven Jackson big time last year, and look at how he finished the season…

Now is the time to review your projections and adjust them to reflect the current landscape in the NFL as you see it. Try to be objective and give credit (or don't give credit) to the players who have earned it (or have not earned it). Overhauling your projections and your expectations may be uncomfortable, even painful, but you'll draft a better team if you can grit your teeth and admit "I was wrong about ____".

Happy Drafting!