• • • •
Deep sleeper WRs
"Marc Levin" - Booker finished as the WR56 in 2004 in a year where he received only one TD. Other than that year, however, he has never finished below WR43 as a starting WR. Moreover, even with Miami's past stagnant offenses, he received in the neighborhood of 100 targets every year. As Miami's WR2, and with the experienced
Trent Green behind center, expect Booker to amass 100-ish targets again. A WR53 with that many targets is a great bet as a deep sleeper.
"Jeff Pasquino" - With the addition of QB
Trent Green from Kansas City, look for Booker to become a go to receiver for the veteran quarterback. The loss of TE McMichael and the lack of sure hands in
Chris Chambers means that Green will need a dependable target. Booker should be the starter for most of the season (as rookie
Ted Ginn Jr. is being phased in slowly this year) and could finish in the Top 36 WRs for the season.
"Aaron Rudnicki" - Since being traded to the Dolphins, Booker has been one of the more underrated fantasy receivers in the league. While he lacks the upside of his teammate
Chris Chambers, he's much more consistent. Over the past 4 years, he's finished with between 638 and 747 yards. He's also coming off a season with 6 TDs, which was the most he's had since 2002, despite playing most of the year with
Joey Harrington at QB. At 31 years old his career is likely winding down, but the trade of
Wes Welker and the inexperience of
Derek Hagan and
Ted Ginn should keep him in the starting lineup for at least one more season.
"David Yudkin" - Booker has seen his fantasy ranking increase each season in Miami and now has a quarterback that should be an upgrade to the hodgepodge of players that have thrown him the ball over the past few years. The team should be opening up the offense some and Booker would be one to benefit.
"Jeff Haseley" - Has Marty Booker ever had a good QB to throw him the ball? Let's recount -
Shane Matthews, Cade McNown (remember him?), Jim Miller,
Kordell Stewart, AJ Feeley,
Gus Frerotte and
Joey Harrington. Despite that mess, Marty Booker has managed to reach 100 and 97 receptions in a season. He turns 31 next week and is still very much a capable WR that might just see a re-birth with
Trent Green at QB. I mentioned Green's accomplishments earlier. It's going to be the
Chris Chambers and Marty Booker show in Miami this year. I think Chambers will see more action, but Booker won't be forgotten. I'm thinking he has the chance to reach top 30 WR status. He was ranked 33rd in 2006.
"Andy Hicks" -
Byron Leftwich is back and that is fantastic news for Reggie Williams and his owners. Before Leftwich was lost for the season Reggie Williams was ranked 14th and looked to be making his breakthrough. Obviously the introduction of
David Garrard didn't work well for Williams, as he didn't get another touchdown for the remainder of the season and looked a totally different player. At the price asked of Williams this year he is a late round steal.
"Chris Smith" - This one is too easy. Reggie Williams is a starting receiver already and finished as the 46th best receiver last year. He shouldn't finish worse than that this season and he does have enough skills to slip into the top-thirty at the position if things go his way.
"Jason Wood" - Williams has a lot to prove, but gets a new offensive coordinator in Dirck Koetter to help him finally make good on his promise. Reggie is in the best shape of his career (not hyperbole, but completely true), and Koetter has been a long-time fan of Williams, having tried to recruit him out of high school when Koetter was head coach as Arizona State.
"David Yudkin" - Someone has to catch the ball in Jacksonville, and Williams put up some solid numbers last year when Bryon Leftwich was at QB. Williams is still learning and could easily jump into the Top 30 or 40 receivers this year.
"Anthony Borbely" - Williams enters his fourth season and appears primed for a breakout season. He has a great chemistry with
Byron Leftwich, and had very good numbers last season in the games Leftwich started. In the first five games, all started by Leftwich, Williams had 24 catches for 297 yards and four TDs. Projecting those numbers over a full season would have ranked Williams just outside the top ten. His production fell off drastically in games started by
David Garrard.
"Andy Hicks" - Dallas has a pair of starting wide receivers, who are rapidly approaching their mid 30s, have had injury problems in their careers and clashes with coaches. Enter a new coaching regime in Dallas and anything could happen here. I'm not saying it will, but all that stands between Patrick Crayton and a starting job in the NFL is for one of
Terrell Owens or
Terry Glenn to miss time. If you own either of these players or think either of these players is a ticking time bomb, Crayton would be a solid late investment.
"Maurile Tremblay" - Crayton is often going undrafted because he's stuck behind
Terrell Owens and
Terry Glenn as the Cowboys' third receiver. While he won't be a fantasy starter as long as he's not an NFL starter, he is just one injury away from getting that opportunity. Crayton is an excellent athlete who runs good routes and has good hands, and I believe he could succeed as a starter in the NFL. If you own Owens or Glenn, Crayton is a natural handcuff.
"Jason Wood" - Patrick Crayton has good size, and his football acumen has skyrocketed as he's gained pro experience. With both
Terrell Owens and
Terry Glenn on the wrong side of 30, it wouldn't be too surprising to see Crayton get playing time as an injury fill-in. If Crayton were to get a few starts in Big D, he would produce at a level close to, if not equal to many of the league's full-time starters.
"Jeff Tefertiller" - Crayton was much improved last year in Dallas. So much so that they did not draft a WR in April. With the aging receivers in Dallas, Crayton should get his opportunity this year. He is a late bloomer in the NFL. He was a small college QB and is just now making strides to be a NFL receiver. Crayton made plays last year when the Cowboys needed them most.
Colin Dowling - Eric Moulds signed with the Tennessee Titans, a team lacking a healthy veteran receiver to bring the young guys along. While Moulds' best days may be behind him, it is important to remember that he caught 57 passes last season despite being on a team with a quarterback that rarely made it to his second read in the progression. While
Vince Young may not be Joe Montana just yet, Moulds should be a mortal lock to outperform his late draft position.
"Aaron Rudnicki" - While Moulds appeared to be done after a disappointing season with the Texans last year, he has very little competition in Tennessee and could quickly become
Vince Young's favorite target. He did get off to a solid start last season but faded badly down the stretch. At 34 years of age, he isn't quite over the hill yet and may still have one more good year left in him.
"Jason Wood" - Moulds led the NFL last year in receptions per target; at an 80% clip. While Moulds has seen his YPR decline for seven consecutive seasons, he's also in line to start for a Titans team that needs a veteran presence in the lineup.
Vince Young will come to appreciate Moulds ability to find an opening in the heart of the defense, which means you can pencil in 50+ catches and 3-5 TDs.
"Jeff Haseley" -
Vince Young, meet Eric Moulds, your new best friend. Before Moulds was signed by Tennessee and after learning that
David Givens is likely going to be out for most of 2007 due to a knee injury, their leading WR with the most receptions in a season was 31, by
Justin Gage. Excuse me, while I drink the Eric Moulds Kool-Aid. Moulds managed 57 recs last year with the Texans, who pretty much monopolized the receiving abilities of
Andre Johnson. Drink that Kool-Aid people. Moulds is capable and will be counted on to lead this team.
Sigmund Bloom - The Patriots gave up a 2nd round pick for Welker -- a pick you usually exercise expecting to land a future starter, so they must have seen a large role for Welker, larger than kick/punt returner. We know
Randy Moss and
Donte Stallworth will stretch defenses, and one of the biggest beneficiaries will be Welker, who will be making his living catching passes on underneath routes, much like
Troy Brown did in the early part of this decade. Welker could catch 60-70 balls and be a WR3 in PPR leagues.
"Andy Hicks" - The Patriots forked over a 2nd round pick to obtain Wes Welker from division rivals Miami. The Patriots aren't known for throwing draft picks around like other teams eg Washington, so it stands to reason that he'll play a bigger part of the Patriots plans than people realize. The
Troy Brown role is there for the taking and in points per reception leagues he's much more valuable. He offers reliability, which is something that can't be said for the other new receivers dominating the headlines,
Randy Moss and
Donte Stallworth. If you own either backing them up with Welker is the sensible move.
"Marc Levin" -
Randy Moss and
Donte Stallworth will get a lot of the press, but the Patriots have a legacy of spreading the ball around and no receiver becomes QB
Tom Brady's "favorite." In Miami, Welker established himself as a special teams monster and a tough, speedy slot receiver. He is best on third down, especially where he is the "hot" read. While he may not have game to game consistent success in New England, expect him to see the ball often enough that he will have production every week and will become Brady's security blanket receiver. As a deep roster WR, how can you expect much more than that?
"David Yudkin" - Welker is getting very little notice in fantasy circles, but he could see a repeat of last year (roughly 70/700). He's being touted as the second coming of
Troy Brown and should see a ton of targets underneath with
Randy Moss and Donte' Stallworth pulling defenders deep.
Sigmund Bloom - Williamson is going to be a starter by default. Whether his hands and ball tracking improve from their woeful levels is yet to be seen, but his speed and run after catch ability should still be intact. The Minnesota passing game does not seem very promising with raw 2nd year starter
Tarvaris Jackson at the helm, but Williamson has the highest upside of a ragtag WR corps, and he's worth drafting at his late ADP if only to see how he does the first few weeks.
"Chris Smith" - Williamson has been a disaster in his first two NFL seasons. Dropped passes, poorly run routes and mediocre play has delegated him to an afterthought with fantasy owners this season. However he has been very good this off-season after getting his vision corrected and he could emerge as a legitimate play-maker for the Vikings this season. He is competing with rookie WR
Sidney Rice for the starting assignment and I'm making the call as of now that Williamson wins that battle and goes on to have a decent season.
"Mark Wimer" - Also include
Bobby Wade with Williamson. While
Tarvaris Jackson doesn't make anyone very excited about the Minnesota passing game, somebody has to catch passes for the Vikings this year. Williamson is entering his 3rd season and it is make-or-break time for him -- he'll be motivated. Wade was solid-but-not-spectacular in Tennessee last year (33/461/3 receiving) -- he posted the highest yards-per-catch of his career last year (14.0). Neither guy is a lock for decent fantasy numbers, but both have the potential to turn into a value pick this year. They both warrant a late-round selection based on their upside potential.
"Jeff Haseley" - The knock on Williamson has always been his inability to make the easy catch. Not the difficult catches, the easy ones. Williamson has dropped several would-be touchdowns or long gains last year and as a result I think it got to him mentally. Apparently it was enough for him to seek the help of an eye specialist over the off-season where he really worked on his vision and catching the ball. It's very possible that nobody on Minnesota will reach 50 recs this year, but what if
Tarvaris Jackson can play? In my opinion, Williamson is the WR1 on this team. We'll see about this situation, but ya gotta love a kid who understands his weakness and works to get it right.
Sigmund Bloom -
Ashley Lelie has already gotten banged up and opened the door for Battle to remind the coaching staff that he is the better and more dependable receiver. He is a tough possession receiver with solid run after catch moves and instincts, in the same mold as
Hines Ward. Battle has also grit his teeth through knee ailments and a broken hand, so you know he won't relinquish a starting role simply because he gets "nicked up". He's a steal at his current ADP of WR64 and 193 overall.
David Dodds - I don't believe for a moment that
Ashley Lelie and
Darrell Jackson will play the year as the starting WRs for the 49ers. Lelie is awful and should get benched quickly. Jackson will likely get hurt like he does every season. And even without injuries, expect hard-working Battle to compete very hard for one of these positions.
"Jeff Pasquino" - Someone is going to be the leading WR in San Francisco this year, and I am betting it won't be
Darrell Jackson. Battle is more of a possession receiver, but that's okay (and fantastic in PPR leagues). Battle will quietly collect solid numbers that put him in the fantasy WR3 or WR4 range, and that's great value after 50 WRs are selected.
David Dodds - Rookie WRs usually don't make a lot of noise, but this could be an exception. A large number of receptions, yards and TDs left with the departure of
Keyshawn Johnson so someone other than
Steve Smith has to be catching something. Dwayne Jarrett comes into the game from the highly-successful USC offense. If any rookie can make an impact immediately, it could be him.
"Chris Smith" - If
Drew Carter doesn't step into
Keyshawn Johnson's spot this year then it will almost certainly be rookie Dwayne Jarrett from USC. Jarrett has great size, catches the ball well and is difficult to cover. He could emerge as a legitimate threat in the receiving game if he can slot in as the starting wide receiver. He'll see lots of action regardless this season and could surprise with a nice first season.
"Jason Wood" - When Dwayne Jarrett was drafted,
Keyshawn Johnson congratulated the fellow USC alum and vowed to mentor him in Carolina. Johnson was promptly released as the Panthers officially ushered in the Jarrett Era. There are a handful of veterans (e.g., Colbert and Carter) who may play in front of Jarrett; but the truth is he will be given every chance to earn a starting spot alongside
Steve Smith.
David Dodds - He has improved his targets, catches, yards, TDs and fantasy points in each of his first three seasons. He finished as the 50th best WR last season despite catching just 39 passes.
Joey Harrington is not a world-beater at QB, but I expect he will get the ball to his #1 WR more than twice a game.
"Clayton Gray" - This is more of a hunch than anything else. While I'm not thrilled with
Joey Harrington being behind center, the change at QB (assuming
Michael Vick is out for the year, of course) could be the spark that gets Jenkins out of his career-long funk.
"Aaron Rudnicki" - Jenkins has shown steady improvement since entering the league a few years ago. Just as most WRs received a downgrade when Vick was under center, they should probably get a slight upgrade with more of a pocket passer at QB. Given Vick's legal problems,
Joey Harrington is looking like he'll be the Falcons primary QB this year and that could mean good things for a big, possession WR like Jenkins.
Sigmund Bloom - Williams was contributing more to the passing game than
Derrick Mason as the 2006 season came to a close, despite being a rookie. He showed the ability to get behind defenses and the toughness to hang at the next level despite having a slight frame. He's one of the #3s who has a chance to win a starting job over the course of this year.
"Jeff Pasquino" - This kid can play. With veteran
Derrick Mason winding down his career, Williams should be the starter by the second half of the season. QB
Steve McNair still has a few good seasons left in him, and even if
Kyle Boller has to play a few games, Williams can still perform. I love Williams in best ball or Survivor format, but he should still have good games in redraft leagues.
"Jeff Tefertiller" - Williams showed flashes of greatness in 2006. With
Derrick Mason slowing down with age, and some rumored he would be cut in June, Williams could take over in this season. The Ravens love their young future receiver tandem of Clayton and Williams.
"Andy Hicks" - If there's a rookie WR in a better position to become the No.1 quickly I'd like to see it.
While Bowe has landed on a team that prefers to run the ball, the No.1 wideout at Kansas is 34 year old
Eddie Kennison. The No.1 target is
Tony Gonzalez, who at 31 is winding down and unlikely to post elite stats again. At the price asked to draft Dwayne Bowe, he is well worth the risk despite the slew of problems rookie wide receivers normally face.
"Aaron Rudnicki" - The Chiefs offense seems to be slowing down but Bowe has a chance to give them the first true #1 WR they've had in a long time. Bowe is a big, strong, and quick WR who should benefit from defenses focusing on
Larry Johnson and
Tony Gonzalez. Whoever winds up at QB for the Chiefs between
Damon Huard and
Brodie Croyle will likely become big fans of Bowe very quickly.
David Dodds -
Keyshawn Johnson's departure left a huge void opposite of
Steve Smith. He increased his catches from 15 in 2005 to 51 last season and could be poised for a huge year if he can beat out
Dwayne Jarrett in training camp.
"Chris Smith" - Carter is a better player than most realize and he'll likely be given the opportunity to shine this season across from
Steve Smith. He played very well at times last season and has great size at 6'3 and 200 pounds. He could emerge with Keyshawn-like numbers this year.
David Baker - Michael Clayton exploded on the fantasy scene in 2004 as a rookie with 80 catches and 1,193 yards. But he's been a failure since then. Injuries have been a part of that, as has poor route running. But he still could be the starter in 2007 and he still has the ability to put up the same numbers he did as a rookie. There aren't many other guys you can snag up that late in the draft with the same upside.
"Jeff Haseley" - Yes, he did have 80 recs in his rookie year and has only 33 and 32 receptions per year since then, but the year he had 80, he had
Brian Griese at QB. For whatever reason, maybe injuries or maybe the re-birth of
Joey Galloway, Clayton was ignored by both
Chris Simms and
Bruce Gradkowski. With
Jeff Garcia now under center, perhaps just maybe Michael Clayton will have his chance at a re-birth? It took
Terry Glenn three seasons after reaching 90 recs in his rookie year to even reach 60 again. Clayton has as good of a chance as anyone to succeed among the WRs he's paired with in the current rankings. I say - let's see some history repeat itself. It wouldn't be that far off would it?
"Mark Wimer" -
Devery Henderson is penciled in as the #2 in New Orleans, but Copper showed flashes last season (23/385/3) in his first season with the club. I expect
Drew Brees to sling the ball around a bunch this year, and if Copper can successfully challenge Henderson for playing time, he'll be an excellent value pick. He's worth speculating on at the end of your fantasy draft, in my opinion.
"David Yudkin" - Copper is in the running for the WR2 spot in New Orleans. In limited action last year (receptions in only nine games) he ranked 75th. His ADP is WR93. Even if he does not take over the WR2 spot, he should still beat his draft position by a fair amount.
"Jeff Haseley" - Right now, the WR corps in Philadelphia is up for grabs behind
Reggie Brown.
Kevin Curtis was brought in, but he does not have the size, ability and range that Basket has. Basket, a fan favorite at 6'4, 215 lbs is a great talent that has the ability to dominate opposing DBs. In very limited duty last year, Basket managed to have two 100-yd games, including an abuse session against Atlanta in week 17 of last season which totaled 177 yards and a TD. To have a game like that at the end of the regular season has to build confidence and stick in a players mind, especially for an undrafted rookie. Philadelphia was 2nd in total offensive yards last season and 4th in total points in 2006. There's plenty of scoring available for Basket.
Colin Dowling - David Boston hasn't done anything meaningful in the NFL since 2003. However, did you know that he will have just turned 29 at the beginning of the season and is playing for a team with no solid second receiver? Once upon a time, David Boston was one of the best receivers in the NFL. While there are exceptions, healthy players still in their 20's with a history of high-level production on their resume are definitely worth a roster spot. Boston will be available in the latest rounds of most drafts, and is the type of player with the natural ability to outperform his draft position by leaps and bounds.
"Maurile Tremblay" - The Chargers' first-round pick has been the talk of training camp so far. He is the early favorite to start over
Eric Parker and
Malcom Floyd, and could quickly become one of
Philip Rivers' favorite targets. He has deep speed and the ability to run after the catch, making him a big-play threat in what should be an explosive offense. For the price, Davis presents nice upside potential.
"Marc Levin" - He won't win you your league, but if you start three WRs every week, add Engram somewhere down the line. It is hard to imagine a better roster addition than Engram who will be available after 15 rounds of your draft. Especially in PPR leagues, he is the kind of receiver who will give you week in and week out production. The Seahawks have a deep receiving crew, but Engram's experience as a slot receiver is invaluable and he will see plenty of looks.
"Maurile Tremblay" - Ginn is a threat to score every time he touches the ball, and the Dolphins lack a true WR1 heading into this season. Ginn could fill that void.
Chris Chambers drops far too many balls, and Ginn more than matches Chambers' big-play ability. In this deep class of rookie WRs, Ginn could be the best of the bunch, and will be counted on to contribute immediately.
"Aaron Rudnicki" - As the Colts first round pick, Gonzalez should begin the year as the primary slot WR. Given the overall production of the Colts passing game, the loss of
Dominic Rhodes, and the advancing age of
Marvin Harrison, it seems like there is a prime opportunity for Gonzalez to step in and be productive right away. With all of the other skill players drawing the defense's attention, Gonzalez's speed and crisp route-running should allow him to have his way with most of the league's slot corners and safeties.
"Chris Smith" - The Dolphins were going to release
Marty Booker this year and Hagan is the reason why. He has had a really nice offseason with the Dolphins and they are looking for him to step into a starting wide receiver role. Hagan has good hands, runs nice routes and is improving each week. He should finish with at least 44 receptions and a few touchdowns this season but could go higher than that.
"Clayton Gray" - There is no denying Henry's talent and ability to produce (he has 15 TDs in only 27 games played. Of course he'll miss the first nine weeks of the season, but if you can afford the roster spot, he could be a huge help in your championship drive.
"Andy Hicks" - Sometimes late in fantasy drafts there is a rookie receiver that very few consider worthy of a draft pick, a la
Darrell Jackson or
Anquan Boldin. Jason Hill will be available and for the price you'll have to pay, he's in a situation he can thrive in. Hill has all the physical skills to be a No.1 in the NFL; it's just a matter of when he gets his chance. Watch his progress in training camp, especially with the flaky
Ashley Lelie and the injury prone pair of
Arnaz Battle and aforementioned
Darrell Jackson ahead of him. Hill could be a steal.
"Jeff Pasquino" - The Browns will be playing from behind most of the season, and aside from
Braylon Edwards there is little to offer at the WR position in Cleveland beyond Jurevicius. If Jurevicius plays most of the year, I expect him to post WR3 or WR4 type numbers due to the volume of targets I expect for him. The forgotten veteran will be a great value pick.
"Mark Wimer" - Also include
Mike Walker with Northcutt. These 2 picks are more about what the guys in front of them haven't done --
Reggie Williams and
Matt Jones have earned the enmity of coach Del Rio for not performing up to expectations, and word is that one or both may not make the team. Northcutt and Walker were both outstanding in OTAs and one or both could end up in the starting lineup. They are guys you can take a late-round flyer on and perhaps end up with a starting WR on your bench.
David Baker - Samie Parker has flashed some potential in his first three seasons. He's athletic and can make tough catches and he's a deep threat as well. With rookie WR
Dwayne Bowe remains unsigned as of this point and rookie receivers often need a little time before getting completely acclimated with the NFL. The starting job could be Parker's on opening day, and at 26 years old, Parker could be online for the breakout season many expect from similarly aged receivers.
David Baker - It seems like forever ago when Peerless Price had a monster season with 94 catches, 1,252 yards and nine touchdowns. It was 2002. He's back in Buffalo again and should be starting. With a young and improving QB in JP Losman, it's quite possible that Price reverts back to his 2002 form. His eye problems could be a thing of the past and if so, Price could find himself back on the forefront as a solid WR in fantasy circles.
"Clayton Gray" - The biggest thing a rookie WR needs to excel is opportunity. Considering the pathetic group of pass-catchers in Minnesota, Rice should have a good chance to see the field. Sometimes, that's all a rookie needs.
"Jason Wood" - This
Steve Smith, the rookie from USC, is polished and will be a starter in New York before long. While the team is counting on
Plaxico Burress and
Amani Toomer to start this year; the truth is both are coming off major surgery and won't be ready for the start of training camp. That means Smith will have plenty of time with the 1st team to prove to the coaches he's ready.
Sigmund Bloom - Stovall only caught seven passes last year, but three of them were 3rd down catches that fired up his teammates. Stovall is challenging disappointing
Michael Clayton for a starting job, and coach Jon Gruden has singled out Stovall for praise early in training camp. Stovall's work ethic in the offseason has also been the subject of positive buzz. Even if Stovall doesn't win a starting job out of training camp, he's worth tracking during the season.
"Jeff Pasquino" - Arguably the most important component to the 2006 Giants. How can I say that?
Eli Manning had a terrible second half of the year, exactly when Toomer was lost with his leg injury. Toomer comes back and can be had cheaply this year as rookie Steven Smith is getting most of the attention. Just like
Rod Smith in the past few years (not this year), a cagey veteran like Toomer is a very nice late value.
"David Yudkin" - Wade may not be a fantasy difference maker. But he is slotted to be the WR1 in Minnesota, and I have a hard time thinking that a NFL team's top receiver will do worse than a #69 fantasy ranking. He did not see much action in Tennessee last season, catching passes in only 13 games. In that limited role he ranked 73rd and now is getting drafted as the #69 receiver off the board.