Overvalued WRs

Andy Hicks - Darrell Jackson has the world at his feet following his move to San Francisco. A new start, he's at his peak and he's the clear No.1. The problem is partly to do with those feet. A lingering turf toe problem added to the continued time he has missed in the last 2 years makes it difficult to justify placing a whole lot of confidence in Jackson. Why would Seattle trade him within the division for a very low price? That's something that doesn't happen without a good reason. The 49ers will also not have the passing game that Jackson was familiar with in Seattle. Alex Smith is still learning the ropes and the offense will revolve around Frank Gore in the meantime. Jackson would make a nice gamble as a WR3, but at his current asking price he is much too risky as a WR2.

Jeff Pasquino - Health is one of the concerns, as usual, for Darrell Jackson. The Seahawks gave up on Jackson, moving that problem to their divisional foes down the coast. Now in San Francisco, Jackson is the #1 WR on paper in June and July, but that is extremely dependent on his health and status come Week 1. With Arnaz Battle, Ashley Lelie and several other rookies like Jason Hill in the mix, fantasy football owners of Jackson could be looking at another year of injuries and issues with the possibility of a small handful of good games. Based on where you would have to draft Jackson (19th WR, #54 overall), I would look in another direction for a wide receiver.

Aaron Rudnicki - Jackson is a talented receiver but he'll likely be playing in a much less potent offense this year than he has in the past. Frank Gore had an incredible season a year ago but it's been awhile since a 49ers WR has finished among the top-20 at the end of the year. Making matters worse for Jackson is the fact that offensive coordinator Norv Turner left the 49ers to become the head coach of the Chargers. Turner was a great influence on Alex Smith and if he doesn't show some improvement, Jackson will have a hard time living up to expectations. Injuries are also a realistic concern for Jackson considering he's missed 13 games over the past two seasons and has reportedly been banged up during the offseason.

Chris Smith - Jackson has been a great receiver over the years but there are reasons to temper your expectations in 2007. He is coming to a team that had huge issues passing the ball over the 2nd half of the season and the running game with Frank Gore will continue to dominate the play.

Mike Brown - I loved Colston as much as anyone when he came on big-time last season. While I can't say I was smart enough to get the first few games out of him, I am proud to say that I benefited greatly from the emergence of Colston in 2006. That said, he really just came completely out of nowhere to do what he did. I'm not saying it's impossible. I'm not even saying it's unlikely. But you'd be wrong to just assume he'll put up the same stats (or better) "just because". Yes, he's got another year of experience. And yes, he clearly has talent. But just as important as those two things when assessing his fantasy prospects is the fact that opposing defenses know this too. His numbers likely won't nosedive, but I'm thinking we aren't going to see him have his way with teams like in 2006.

Jeff Pasquino - Colston lit up the stat charts last year, coming out of virtually nowhere (except for here at Footballguys, of course), defenses will be certainly more aware of him for his second campaign. The downgrade of Colston is more of a reflection of the rest of the Saints' offense catching up than a reflection of his abilities. With Reggie Bush's assertion as a receiver out of the backfield and the addition of Eric Johnson at tight end, Colston may see fewer passes in his direction. The options of Devery Henderson, Terrance Copper and rookie Robert Meachem also have more potential to produce than the departed veteran Joe Horn, which also is likely to detract from Colston's numbers in 2007.

Aaron Rudnicki - Colston had a remarkable rookie season and finished as the #14 ranked WR. He certainly could finish this high but there are probably safer options out there. The loss of Joe Horn to Atlanta may mean more targets for Colston, but it also means he's more likely to face #1 CBs and double teams. He flew under the radar a year ago but defenses will be paying a lot more attention to him now.

Will Grant - We all know an owner who drafts with one eye on last year's results. Owners who are taking Mike Furrey in the 10th round are EXACTLY that type of owners. Rookie Calvin Johnson is light-years ahead of Mike Williams when it comes to pass catching, and with CJ2 and Roy Williams on the field, Furrey isn't going to see much action. Last season Furrey had 1000 yards and six TDs. This season, he's looking at totals that will be less than half of those numbers.

Jeff Pasquino - Maybe I missed something, but I'm pretty sure that the #1 rookie wide receiver, and possibly the #1 rookie overall, went to Detroit in the NFL Draft in April. Furrey is a former defensive back who put up nice numbers in 2006, but that season screams "one hit wonder" to me. Even if he is lucky enough to secure a starting job opposite Roy Williams on opening day, Calvin Johnson will be replacing him sooner rather than later. The odds of Furrey coming anywhere close to his performance levels of 2006 are between slim and none. Look for him to be the #3 option and slot receiver for Detroit and well below the #39 WR in Fantasy Football by the end of 2007.

David Yudkin - Historically speaking, third receivers do not make great investments as far as fantasy football goes. It's pretty rare that a team generates three Top 40 receivers in the same season. The benchmark is roughly 100 points to rank in the Top 40, and only seven teams in the past ten years have done it, meaning that each team has roughly a 2% chance of accomplishing that feat. In this case, we are suggesting DRAFTING three Lions' receiver in the Top 40, and that on paper looks like a recipe for disaster. With Roy Williams already dialed in and Calvin Johnson the next big thing, the math indicates that Furrey will struggle to crack the Top 40 receivers.

Aaron Rudnicki - Despite being one of the most talented receivers in the league, Johnson has yet to finish higher than WR18 during his 4-year career. The Texans offense made a QB change this year, but Schaub may not even be an upgrade over David Carr. The team also has no reliable WR2 to play opposite him, which should continue to result in plenty of double-team situations as defenses key on shutting him down. Johnson seems to consistently get drafted higher than he should every year and it looks like nothing has changed. To reach these levels, he'll need to make more big plays and get into the end zone more often.

Maurile Tremblay - Andre Johnson may be one of the most talented receivers in the NFL, but stuck in a poor offense, his talents are under-rewarded in fantasy terms. Matt Schaub may be an upgrade over David Carr...or he may not be. He hasn't shown enough yet, in my opinion, for me to want to target his primary target for my fantasy team. Johnson has never been a top fifteen fantasy WR, but is being drafted as the tenth receiver off the board this season. Why? Do people expect the Texans' passing game to improve that much? It could, but I'd prefer a more proven player like Javon Walker, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Donald Driver, or Hines Ward...all of whom are being selected after Johnson.

David Yudkin - Johnson's ADP is rising and is now hovering in the Top Ten. There appears to be a lot of optimism in the Houston offense, stemming mostly from the departure of David Carr in favor for inexperienced Matt Schaub. While many people are looking at the upside of Schaub, very few people are evaluating the possibility that he may struggle. Johnson ranked a career best 18th last year. It appears a safe bet that Johnson will not eclipse his 2006 of 103 receptions, so he needs to be more productive with the targets he gets rather than getting an increased workload. Johnson will have to be about 25% more productive to crack the Top Ten, and with an unproven quarterback and unproven options at wide receiver, that may be too much to ask.

Sigmund Bloom - Fantasy owners everywhere had visions of Moss's years atop the NFL when he signed with New England (while taking a pay cut!), but there's no way he's worth an early 4th. First, Moss clearly was giving less than 100% effort during his stint in Oakland -- consistently playing hard is not something you can just turn on and turn off at will. Assuming a return to form requires a belief in Moss's character -- good luck with that. Second, we all know how Tom Brady likes to spread the ball around. Moss may get 4/130/2 one week, and 1/18/0 the next, depending on the offensive and opposing defensive game plans. There will be no "Randy ratio" in New England. Third, Brady might not have the deep arm to truly harness Moss's world class speed. Trusting Randy Moss has been a recipe for failure over the last few years -- if it's going to cost a top 40 pick, you're better off letting someone else take that leap of faith.

Will Grant - OK, now it's just getting silly. 1200 yards and 7 TDs? That's what people are expecting out of Randy Moss this season? 1200 yards and 7 TDs? That's just about where a WR should finish if you're going to spend a high 4th round pick on him. In New England, it's team first, players second. The Patriots have had a guy post 1200 yards and 7 TDS since 2001. I just don't see them radically altering their offensive strategy for a guy who has proven himself to give less than 100% unless he's the center of the universe. I'm sorry. I know I'm bucking a serious trend here but spending a 4th rounder on Randy Moss is just asking to get burned.

Aaron Rudnicki - Moss is obviously capable of putting up a top-10 season but there are several big risk factors surrounding him this year. He played like he didn't care the past couple years in Oakland, and even though things are warm and fuzzy in Boston now, they could also turn sour in a hurry. More importantly, however, is the fact that Tom Brady and the Patriots have been very successful spreading the ball around rather than relying on one or two key weapons. Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker were both brought in this year as well and they should present reliable targets along with incumbents like TE Ben Watson and RB Kevin Faulk. There's a danger that Moss could amount to little more than a decoy in some weeks with all the other talent in place. Lastly, if the defense is as good as many expect it to be the Patriots will likely be protecting leads in the second half of games rather than trying to pile up score like the Vikings used to when Moss was in his prime.

Jason Wood - It's difficult to think of Drew Bennett and not think of that three week stretch in 2004 when he caught 28 passes for 517 yards and 8 touchdowns. That run single-handedly led to many fantasy playoff victories and, perhaps, hinted at what might come of Bennett being a full time starter in 2005 and beyond. Unfortunately, his last two seasons left much to be desired. His catches have fallen from 80 to 58 to 46. His yards fell from 1,247 to 738 to 737. His TD total fell from 11 to 4 to 3. On a Titans teams absolutely starving for offensive playmakers, he has managed to finish WR38 and WR43 the last two years. So explain to me why this guy represents a better fantasy option than Isaac Bruce? Bennett is the one changing teams, he's the one learning a new offense, and he's the one replacing Kevin "WR3" Curtis. Yet Bennett is being drafted, on average two rounds higher than Bruce. Don't make the same mistake. Bennett is a decent late round flier with upside if Torry Holt or Isaac Bruce get hurt. But other than that, he's no compelling.

David Yudkin - There are several teams with third receivers getting drafted pretty high this year. But there have only been seven times in the past ten years where one team had three receivers hit the 100 points scored mark. In this case, people apparently are pushing Isaac Bruce to the curb when that seems unlikely to happen given Bruce's consistent level of production. The odds are very slim that the Rams will produce three Top 40 receivers, and Bennett looks like the odd man out until Bruce retires or is otherwise off the team. Bennett may have to wait until then to be a weekly starter for fantasy purposes in 12-team leagues.

Maurile Tremblay - Boldin finished as the number 17 fantasy WR last season while playing all 16 games. With new head coach Ken Whisenhunt expected to bring more of a ball control offense with him to Arizona, one might expect Boldin to be ranked in 2007 about where he finished in 2006. To the contrary, he is being drafted as the ninth wide receiver off the board, even though he will share the spotlight with fellow Cardinal WR Larry Fitzgerald and play in an offense led by a second-year player at quarterback. While Boldin has the potential to live up to his draft position (he did finish as the number 8 fantasy WR in 2005), he is, in my opinion, much more likely to finish outside the top ten again this season.

Mark Wimer - Boldin is a great receiver, but the Cardinals have a new coaching staff and a new, more run-oriented offensive philosophy. Larry Fitzgerald is the superior red-zone threat, which, combined with more emphasis on the running game, may conspire to limit Boldin's scoring chances even more than usual. I'd be surprised to see Boldin catch more than 5 TDs this year, which will limit his fantasy upside. I don't believe he'll score enough fantasy points to land in the top 10 at his position, and he may be on the cusp of the top 20 when it is all said and done. At an ADP of 9th WR drafted, Boldin is too rich for my blood.

Andy Hicks - Deion Branch's current ADP is a slot he has only ever exceeded once in his career, and that was only fractionally better with a 22nd ranked finish in 2005 in his final season with New England. Never the most durable of receivers, he is being asked to take on the No.1 role, which theoretically should see an increase in targets, but given his lack of resilience and smaller frame it will be hard to see him exceed his current draft slot. His performance for Seattle last year hardly pegged him as a player likely to be a potential top 10 receiver. He finished the season ranked 39th and provided only 2 or 3 games worth much to a fantasy owner. Branch has never been a player who gets many touchdowns and if that doesn't improve this season his ADP is a pipe dream.

Aaron Rudnicki - Branch is a very good possession receiver, but he seems somewhat misplaced as a #1 WR. There is a very good chance that DJ Hackett could take over the role vacated by Jackson in Seattle and finish with a higher fantasy ranking than Branch.

Mike Brown - Brown is a guy that a lot of owners are looking at as a WR1 simply because he's his team's number one receiver option. But being the number one receiver option is quite different than being the number one receiving option. The top receiving guy on the Eagles is Brian Westbrook. Heck, even relative to position, L.J. Smith makes a bigger impact amongst tight ends. Brown is a guy that can put up solid stats, but isn't a guy to reach for. The problem is, most leagues have one or two guys that will assume A) McNabb will return to pre-injury form, and B) Brown will be the first Eagles wideout in the Andy Reid era to put up eye-popping stats. It happens every year with the Eagles, no matter who the de fact WR1 happens to be. And just about every year, that guy puts up pedestrian stats relative to the other number one guys around the league. If you want to banks on Brown being the guy to change all that, go for it. I'm going to stick with my silly trends and patterns and go in another direction.

Mark Wimer - Brown has a talented new team-mate to contend with this year (Kevin Curtis), and the Eagle's system tends to spread out the ball among many receivers, including talented pass-catching RB Brian Westbrook and TE L.J. Smith. That adds up to a leaner diet of targets for the starting wide receivers than featured receivers on other teams. Last year, Brown saw 91 chances for 46/816/8 -- he led the Eagles' WRs with 46 catches, but L.J. Smith had 50 and Westbrook snagged 77. By way of contrast, last years' 22nd WR (Hines Ward) saw 126 targets for 975 yards and 6 scores -- 35 more chances than Brown had during 2006. Given the lean diet of passes that Brown is likely to see this year, I think he'll struggle to crack the top 30, and drafting him in the low 20s at his position looks like a mistake.

Mike Brown - Sensing a pattern here? I'm not a fan of the Eagles for the upcoming season. I think they'll have their moments, but Kevin Curtis won't be amongst them. He wasn't a world-beater in Saint Louis with Marc Bulger throwing him the ball; why should he be one in Philadelphia with Donovan McNabb? He's a guy that you can take a shot on as a bye-week filler and hope he maybe scores or something, but he's not someone I'd ever want to rely on on a consistent basis. Which is exactly what you'd be doing if you took him at the average spot he's been going at.

Andy Hicks - Kevin Curtis disappointed many an owner last year who expected him to replicate or improve on his solid season in 2005. The truth is that Kevin Curtis is an average NFL receiver. Late to the pro game, he'll be 29 already by the start of the season and has little improvement left in him. He moves to a side which has a complex offense and even assuming he wins the No. 2 role, could be the 4th most targeted player behind Reggie Brown, Brian Westbrook and L. J Smith, in a side that loves to spread the ball. The 10th round is hardly going to kill your draft, but for your WR3 or WR4 you want someone with a little more upside than Kevin Curtis.

Jason Wood - Don't get me wrong, I think Larry Fitzgerald is one of the most talented young receivers in the league. But drafting him as early as WR4 leaves absolutely no margin for error, and fails to recognize the importance of the changes underway in Arizona. Gone are the days when the Cardinals attempt 550-600 passes. New OC Ken Whisenhunt has promised balance, and considering how often the Steelers offense ran the ball under his watch, fantasy owners shouldn't take his promise lightly. It would be one thing if Fitzgerald was the lone stud wearing Arizona Red; in which case you could argue he'll end up having monster numbers regardless of the run/pass ratio. However, Fitzgerald shares the field with Anquan Boldin; a star in his own right. It's Boldin who had 1,200 yards receiving last year. It's Boldin who caught 83 passes. It's Boldin who averaged better than 14 yards per catch. Logically, both Anquan and Fitzgerald will have their moments, but neither should get enough targets to push for top-5 honors unless the other gets hurt.

David Yudkin - People remember Fitzgerald's fine 2005 season when he ranked as the number two receiver in fantasy football. But that was with a Cardinals team that threw 670 passes and with Kurt Warner at quarterback. Arizona is making a concerted effort to establish the running game, with new head coach Ken Whisenhunt stating he hopes to get 550-600 rushing attempts this season. While that may be more wishful thinking than anything else, a 500/500 split of offensive plays could be in the offing. With 170 fewer passing attempts, Fitzgerald may not see the ball enough to rank in the Top Ten let alone the Top Five. He's been 25% less productive without Warner at QB, making him a risky proposition as a late second round pick in 12-team leagues.

Mark Wimer - Chris Henry is going off of WR boards at #62 as of mid-June, but he has yet to serve his suspension (and stay clear of trouble for another 4 months) before he can even step on the field of play. Given his off-field behavior in the past, I'd much rather let someone else burn a draft pick on Henry on draft day. The owner who does so will likely have to dump Henry onto the free agent market at some point due to injury concerns at a position on her/his fantasy roster, or because he/she will spy someone else to occupy the dead roster spot assigned to Henry. IF Henry actually behaves himself for the first 6 games of his suspension, at that point I'd consider signing him off the waiver wire if my roster were healthy enough to have an extra bench spot for a few weeks. There is no way I'd carry him for 8 weeks in a redraft league, though.

David Yudkin - Henry won't be allowed to suit up until half the season has been completed. Last year's #62 receiver scored 68 fantasy points. Assuming something equivalent would be required this year to rank at that spot, Henry would need to score that many points in HALF a season. The problem being, that level of production is consistent with a Top 20-25 wide receiver. The Bengals still have Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh as their go to receivers. Even if Henry stepped in ready to go in perfect shape with no rust it would take a passing game of epic proportions to field three Top 20 receivers in the same offense.

Andy Hicks - Calvin Johnson is a once in a lifetime talent, as is every other top 5 rookie WR like Charles Rogers, Peter Warrick et al, but not one top 5 rookie WR in the last 25 years has produced to the level Johnson will have to in his rookie season to justify his draft slot. Remember that he has yet to sign a contract or play an NFL down. Roy Williams will ensure Johnson won't be No.1 and last years surprise packet, Mike Furrey, is still there. Remember that Detroit has invested a lot into the WR position in recent years and only have Williams to show for it. I don't want to call Calvin Johnson jinxed, but at his current draft slot he'll have to be sensational to justify it. Maybe in the future, but this year I'll let someone else use their early 6th rounder on him.

Mark Wimer - Calvin Johnson is a rookie wide receiver. While he appears to have all the tools to excel, he also has a lot to learn about playing at the pro level. With Roy Williams in the clear-cut #1 WR role in Detroit, and Mike Furrey also in the mix, it seems improbable that Johnson will manage to appear in the top 25 by seasons' end. He's more likely to land somewhere in the high 30's or low 40's (WR #3 territory in fantasy terms) - paying for WR #2 production from Johnson this year is likely to be a bad bargain.

Chris Smith - Meachem is a rookie receiver who will take a season or two to put up viable fantasy numbers if he ever does. He has good size and quickness but that won't translate into much fantasy relevance this season.

Jason Wood - Robert Meachem is being drafted ahead of fellow rookies Dwayne Bowe, Dwayne Jarrett, Ted Ginn and Sidney Rice. Yet, all four of those guys are more likely to see significant playing time, and possibly start, for their respective teams. While Robert Meachem might evolve into a big-time contributor in New Orleans, the odds are against that happening in 2007. Some fantasy owners must be discounting the incumbent Saints receivers; which is foolish. Marques Colston is obviously the team's top pass catcher, and should only get better in his second season. Devery Henderson and Terrence Copper both made contributions to the NFC's best offense last year, and have the advantage of knowing the playbook already. Under optimal circumstances, Meachem would settle in as the WR3 to start the year. Yet, Meachem showed up to minicamp overweight and out-of-shape, and aggravated an old knee injury which required arthroscopic surgery to clean out cartilage. At a minimum he'll be out 4-to-6 weeks, which is invaluable prep time for a rookie WR trying to make the lineup. Pass on Meachem, at least at current ADP.

Will Grant - I like Javon Walker. I really do. But ignoring the massive hit that his stats took at the end of last season with Jay Cutler at the helm taking a HUGE risk with a 4th round pick. Brandon Marshall, Brandon Stokley, Daniel Graham and Tony Scheffler are all going to be competing with Walker for the ball this season, and Javon is not going to be the standout he was last season.

Jeff Pasquino - Walker posted great numbers last year with Rod Smith as the other WR starter, but things changed when Brandon Marshall and also TE Tony Scheffler started to play more. In the last six weeks of the season, QB Jay Cutler hit Walker for just 24-285-2 while Marshall had 17-254-1 and Scheffler posted 12-219-4. Our own Chase Stuart has also done some analysis that supports what I also noticed anecdotally, which is that second year starting quarterbacks tend to regress after their first year. Look for Walker to post lower numbers while Marshall and Scheffler contribute more this season.

Mike Brown - This isn't a knock specifically against Burress, but rather the entire New York offense as a whole. With Tiki Barber no longer carrying the load, I think New York will have a tough time moving the ball consistently. That will cause across-the-board declines in all of the skill guys' stats. None more so than Burress, who now is clearly the guy defenses will look to stop in order to stop the New York offense. Sure, Brandon Jacobs and Jeremy Shockey will be game-planned for, but Burress is the guy that needs to be stopped on this team. And even when the opposition isn't stopping him, there are plenty of times when Burress simply stops himself. I just can't see myself putting any kind of legitimate faith in Burress ever "getting it", and as such I tend to stay away from him. This year, it's more than just a simple bias against him. New York looks like a team that's going to have a lot of problems in 2007.

Andy Hicks - Marvin Harrison continues to defy the odds and his run of top 10 fantasy finishes is at 8, 7 of them top 5 and 5 of them top 2. He is a sure fire, 1st ballot hall of famer. He will not disappoint those who draft him this year, but to continue at this pace he cannot do. The Colts knew this when they drafted Anthony Gonzalez in the 1st round this year. The Colts did not have a WR3 last year, which meant Wayne and Harrison probably overachieved. With a solid No.3 this year and Wayne hitting his peak, Marvin's stats will probably be the ones to suffer. Eventually Harrison has to slow down and although I've been a big fan of his, I have pegged him to disappoint for a couple of years now. Call it persistence, but this year I'm going to be right. Harrison is as safe a WR to pick as there is, but he will not live up to his draft slot, he may still even rate as a WR1, but he won't finish at his current ADP.

Mike Brown - For a guy coming off surgery, I think his ranking is too high. It's not like he is coming off a top-3 season a year ago and having surgery. He started off great and really faded down the stretch, and now has to add rehabbing an injury to the list of typical training camp exercises. Not to mention the fact that the Rams brought in a couple of very experienced pass-catchers in Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael. That could be seen either as a sign that Holt will lose receptions to them, or as a sign that they're worried about Holt. I believe it's more of the former than anything. I don't think they're openly concerned about Holt, but I do think it might be wise to not have him taking such a pounding. There's even been some talk about Steven Jackson having a larger role in the passing game in order to limit the pounding he takes between the tackles. All of which adds up to a potentially reduced role for Holt, a reduction I think keeps him out of the top-5.

Chris Smith - There is no denying that Matt Jones is amongst the most talented players at wide receiver today. However that potential has yet to be really tapped into and he has struggled to put up numbers thus far in the NFL. There is competition for playing time in Jacksonville at the receiver position and there are better players to take a chance on in round nine / round ten than Matt Jones.

Jeff Pasquino - Bear with me, but I am going to make a case that Steve Smith is overrated. I know that isn't a popular stance, but considering that his counterpart, Keyshawn Johnson, is no longer a part of the Carolina Panthers, Smith will be seeing double coverage as often as possible from opposing defenses. New WR Dwayne Jarrett and younger Drew Carter are not as imposing of a #2 option, and the Panthers have not have a solid tight end for several seasons. QB Jake Delhomme has accuracy issues, and even his long throws to Steve Smith were just chances for him to go up and make a play. With other top receivers in the league having better complimentary WRs lined up on the other side, Steve Smith may not be worth a Top 5 WR slot in drafts when all is said and done this season.

Jason Wood - Fantasy football can be a funny thing. All across the land people are arguing that Randy Moss is a risky pick because of the Patriots' balance approach toward distributing the ball. Yet I look at Donte Stallworth's ADP and it seems they're comfortable with Stallworth's outlook. Why? As an Eagles fan, let me clear up a few things. 1) Stallworth has ONE top-20 fantasy season in his five year career. In each of the other four seasons, he's finished no higher than WR35. Last year, he ranked WR36. 2) Stallworth is a perennial injury risk. Last year he missed 3 games and parts of others with the same hamstring malady that plagued him earlier in his career. 3) He's in the NFL's substance abuse program; another strike could cost him games. 4) He's inconsistent and caught less than 50% of his passes last year. Does that sound like someone that is going to push toward a career year? Not with Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Ben Watson and Kelley Washington also in the mix.

Mark Wimer - Over the last 3 years, Hines Ward has landed at #28 (2004), #10 (2005) and #22 (2006) among fantasy WRs at the end of those respective seasons. He hasn't played a full 16 game slate over the past 2 years, and hasn't broken through the 1000 yards receiving barrier during the same span of time (he caught 11 TDs in 2005 but only 6 in 2006, while hauling in 975 yards worth of receptions in both seasons) and will be 31 when the regular season begins. Santonio Holmes turned in a respectable season last year (49/824/2), and may be poised to reduce the number of targets that Ward sees coming his way. I think it will take another double-digit TD season to land Ward in the top 20 this year, and those don't come along regularly (although Ward has managed the trick 3 times in the last 5 years). I think there are more attractive fantasy receivers with more upside available at the 18th wide receiver selection.