Overvalued TEs

Sigmund Bloom - The self-proclaimed soldier's numbers last year make it look like he was "back", but those numbers were more a product of Winslow serving as Charlie Frye's dump off of choice than a return his Miami form. There's even less reason to think that Winslow will be a factor this year, as he had microfracture surgery in the offseason -- a procedure with inherent risk that is exacerbated by Winslow's body being in the condition of a 10 year vet after his motorcycle accident. He is unlikely to be ready for the start of training camp, and he's behind the curve in the team's transition to new offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski's offense. There's no way he's worth taking as the 7th TE off the board.

Mike Brown - I'll go on record as saying this now. I'm frightened to death of Winslow's injury/recovery. Some people heard about the surgery and took it as a positive thing, that they would now get Winslow at a discount. I heard that news and immediately pulled the plug on any plans I may have had to acquire Winslow in ANY leagues this season. It's simply not worth the risk. Yes, he's a top talent. Yes, he'll get a lot of balls thrown his way. No, I don't think he makes it through the season unscathed -- not even close. I'd much rather take one of the seemingly "lesser" options and not have to worry on a weekly basis whether my starting tight end is about to suffer a career-ending injury just from walking out of the locker room.

Jeff Pasquino - This is not a knock on Winslow, but I am all but avoiding him for 2007. There are huge questions about his health, as he is getting close to (if not already) having permanent and irreparable damage to his knee. He underwent microfracture surgery to his knee, which is one of the last resorts to trying to improve a person's knee and return to being functional -- but an NFL tight end needs a bit more mobility than the average person. I don't see him being healthy for 16 games at all, and probably even fewer. Another factor that has me down on Winslow is the Cleveland offense. Who knows who the quarterback will be, and whether Derek Anderson, Charlie Frye or Brady Quinn will start on a weekly basis? Uncertainty there cannot be good for the offense or the passing game, and Winslow will also suffer there a result.

Mark Wimer - Winslow is rehabbing his once-again surgically repaired knee, but has yet to take any contact or run at full speed and cut with pads on, etc. How long his mangled joint will hold up even if he makes it on the field is anyone's guess. Even at 6th TE selected, Winslow's still a little too rich for my blood, considering guys like Jason Witten and Chris Cooley are likely to be there for the picking at that point.

Will Grant - OK, not much risk in taking a flyer on Olsen here, I'll give you that. But rookie TEs don't see a lot of action, and Desmond Clark had a career year last season. If Olsen gets involved in the passing game for the Bears, he's going to cut into Clark's numbers, but he won't absorb them completely. That means that at best, Olsen and Clark become TE by committee and neither are worth a roster slot. Without a serious injury to Clark, Olsen isn't worth drafting unless you're in a keeper or dynasty league.

Jason Wood - Greg Olsen may be the next in a long line of productive University of Miami tight ends, but drafting him at TE16 makes little sense. Rookie tight ends rarely deliver the goods. Reflect back on the rookie numbers for Tony Gonzalez (33/368/2), Antonio Gates (24/389/2), Todd Heap (16/206/1), and Jason Witten (35/347/1). And most of those studs didn't have a productive veteran playing in front of them. Desmond Clark caught 45 receptions for 626 yards and 6 TDs last season in Chicago. On top of everything, the Bears aren't a pass-happy team, meaning Olsen will see infrequent targets unless Desmond Clark succumbs to injury. Olsen may be a value pick, in the 2008 draft but not before.

David Yudkin - In most seasons, the #16 tight end typically scores in the vicinity of 60 fantasy points. In the past ten years, there have been only eight rookie tight ends that have scored that many points in their rookie seasons (out of 290 rookie tight ends that have played in that time). Olsen, however, has to deal with the presence of Desmond Clark, who ranked 8th last year. Being a rookie and splitting time with Clark should be enough to scare away most savvy fantasy owners in all but the largest of redraft leagues. Look for Olsen to blossom in the future, but investing a 13th round pick may be too steep a price for this year.

Sigmund Bloom -

Aaron Rudnicki - Crumpler has been one of the league's more underrated fantasy TEs for the past few years and he was clearly the favorite target of Michael Vick. This year, however, there are some major changes taking place in Atlanta. The receivers look to be the best they've ever been in Vick's tenure with the signing of Joe Horn and continued improvement of Michael Jenkins and Roddy White. New head coach Bobby Petrino also says he wants the RBs to be much more involved in the passing game, which could steal some targets from Crumpler. Probably a better move to wait on the TEs in the 8 to 12 range as they will likely produce numbers very similar to Crumpler but can be drafted several rounds later.

Aaron Rudnicki - Davis is an insanely talented player but he's unproven and it's always risky to take a player with potential over more proven players. Davis will probably live up to these types of expectations at some point but expecting it this year seems like a gamble.

Mark Wimer - Davis has a lot of potential, but has yet to prove he's a top 10 TE. I'd rather have a proven, veteran TE as my TE #1 -- let someone else jump on Davis early. Given only 20/265/3 to show for 10 games played last season (2 receptions per game), I don't feel like he's a lock for a top 10 fantasy TE finish.

Andy Hicks - Last season was Ben Watson's chance to shine. Deion Branch and David Givens had moved on, the other receivers were an assembled group of has beens or under performers and there wasn't a stud running back to steal catches. The best Ben Watson could do when given this chance was finish 10th in fantasy rankings, with a disappointing 3 touchdowns. Add Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker, competition from the highly rated 2nd year prospect David Thomas and you've got no upside at all. Compare this to other Tight Ends who'll still be available or drafted near his slot who are either solid red zone options or at least the 3rd option in the passing game. Another concern with Watson is his tendency to miss games. In addition to that Watson has a habit of losing concentration and was responsible for numerous drops and even worse fumbled the ball on crucial occasions. It's pretty clear that Ben Watson will have difficulty outperforming his current ranking.

Jeff Pasquino - Watson was highly touted entering 2006, yet he did not deliver. Watson finished the year with 49 catches, 643 yards and three touchdowns, good enough for the #10 position in FBG scoring for the season. The important point to remember for the Patriots last year is that they were patching together a wide receiver corps without Deion Branch or Chad Jackson available. Watson is projected to be drafted as the #10 tight end again this year, but with the improvements made by New England at wide receiver, one would have to expect that the targets will go down for Watson for 2007.

Sigmund Bloom - Different year, same story. Clark has the talent to be a top notch fantasy TE, and he plays in an offense that routinely creates fantasy studs, but he will not have the opportunity to produce anywhere near his ceiling. Clark had a prodigious run in the postseason, but that was because Brandon Stokley was out and Clark was almost exclusively lined up in the slot. The team spent their first round pick on Anthony Gonzalez, a receiver out of Ohio State who is almost ideal for the slot receiver role. Clark will be back to his familiar TE position, and Peyton Manning will continue to use both TEs (Ben Utecht and Bryan Fletcher are still around). Clark also extended his streak on not playing a full 16 game season to four -- the same number of years he's been in the league. Clark is only suitable as bye week/injury filler, and his ADP is too pricy for such a minor role on your team.

Jason Wood - Eric Johnson is an above average pass-catching tight end when healthy. Unfortunately for this former Ivy Leaguer, he's visited the trainer's room a lot more often than the huddle in his six year career. He's missed 39 games in six seasons, including 19 of his last 32. Fantasy owners are quick to think a change of scenery might re-ignite his career, but that would be foolish. Changing teams is not generally a positive for receivers; he needs to learn a new playbook and acclimate himself to new surroundings, teammates and coaches. He's also going to be hard pressed for consistent targets, with a deep WR corps as well as RB Reggie Bush ahead of him on the pecking order. As if that weren't enough, his career metrics are hardly awe-inspiring. He's average 9.1 yards per catch or less in all but one season, and has never caught more than 2 TDs. Johnson is the CLASSIC tight end reach; with so much value at the position this year, let someone else make that mistake.

David Yudkin - Even though it may not take much to acquire Lewis and his ADP makes him a late round pick, it still might be a waste of a roster spot. Lewis barely cracked the Top 50 tight ends last year and should split time with Jermaine Wiggins and George Wrighster this time around. Given that the Jaguars tight end corps barely broke 50 receptions and 500 receiving yards, it's unlikely that any of their tight ends will make great fantasy options in 2007. Unless a team has a history of posting great numbers from their tight ends, TEBC is a situation to avoid for your fantasy squad.

Maurile Tremblay - Many fantasy owners are high on Scheffler this year because of his four touchdowns in the five games Jay Cutler started at quarterback. To me, that is putting too much emphasis on too small a sample size, and ignores the depth the Broncos have at the TE position. Daniel Graham will start -- and although he is a better blocker than receiver, he will be a part of the passing game. Scheffler will get more playing time than Stephen Alexander, but both figure into the team's plans. (Scheffler and Alexander had the same number of receptions last year: 18.) While Scheffler's receiving skills would make him a worthwhile fantasy TE on many other teams, on the Broncos there are probably too few balls to go around.

Mike Brown - Forgive me, but I'm not a big fan of hernia surgeries. Especially those that occur so close to the opening of training camp. I know, Smith is expected to be ready on time and won't be affected. That wouldn't be the first time we've heard that. Unlike a broken arm or a pulled hamstring, the hernias seem to affect guys a lot more because you really can't work out ANYTHING during the time you're out. It's much like appendicitis in that your entire body seemingly gets weaker, rather than just the actual part that was injured to begin with. Couple that with a just-returning-from injury- Donovan McNabb, and you can start to see why I wouldn't pin my tight end hopes on L.J. Smith, at least not at the season's outset.