Overvalued RBs

Will Grant - Given the inevitable RB run that will happen in 90% of the fantasy leagues, I guess it's inevitable that you'd come to the end of round 2 and think about taking a guy like Benson. He's young, the #1 guy on a run-heavy offense, and there's no serious competition for him to lose his job. My problems is Benson isn't your 'typical' rookie who has paid his dues and is now ready to assume his place in NFL greatness. Benson has had some serious questions brought up regarding his abilities, commitment and mental toughness. Is that something he's put behind him like he did in the playoffs against New Orleans or is he still prone to disappointment like he was in the Super Bowl against Indy? Can he make it a full season as the #1 back? Who knows... But I'm not spending a 2nd round pick on him to find out.

Andy Hicks - Cedric Benson is going to be one of those players who makes or breaks a draft. With his draft slot towards the end of the 2nd round he presents enough potential to move into a RB1 slot, but he'll be a draft killer if he busts. In his career to date he has recorded only 1 100 yard rushing game, in week 17 of the 2006 season and has only 1 other game where he has exceeded 64 rushing yards. He is no threat at all as a receiver and in points per reception leagues his value drops immensely. Even though he hasn't been a full time back he has suffered from and missed time due to injuries, including one in Super Bowl XLI. Given the way Chicago uses its backs, expect someone to rise to the challenge (pay careful attention during training camp) and get their fair share of carries away from Benson. If they perform better, the ratio changes significantly. Benson has already been accused of maturity issues, and with continued doubts about the performances of Rex Grossman at QB, Benson is much too risky to stake your draft on.

Jeff Pasquino - Benson has been handed the starter job for the Chicago Bears in 2007, but so many questions remain about whether he is ready to inherit the primary role. Benson has not remained very healthy since joining the Monsters of the Midway in 2005, losing playing time due to a preseason injury last year after a holdout in his rookie season. For two years Thomas Jones has held him down to the #2 status despite all the money thrown at him as a high draft pick. Benson is projected by many to have 250 or more carries this year, but I do not expect him to get that many touches. The running back by committee approach worked well for Chicago, getting them all the way to Super Bowl XLI. Benson has a much better chance of underperforming and losing touches to either Adrian Peterson or rookie Garrett Wolfe than validating a Top 20 running back choice for 2007.

Mark Wimer - Benson has yet to carry the full load for the Bears, and hasn't exactly been an ideal team mate during his first two seasons with Chicago. Reports indicate that his attitude is improving now that Thomas Jones is a Jet, but the pressure of carrying the Bears' rushing attack hasn't come to bear yet - it remains to be seen if he can be the featured back the Bears thought they were drafting back in 2005. Last year he managed 157/647/6 rushing and 8/54/0 receiving while splitting time with Thomas Jones. In order to become an every-down back, Benson needs to become a more proficient receiver -- another question mark hovering around Benson heading into the 2007 season. At an ADP of #17 RB selected, I think Benson is a bad bargain.

Sigmund Bloom - The team drafted Adrian Peterson to be their feature back. Taylor ran with determination and efficiency last year, but he can't match Peterson's big play ability and punishing running style. Taylor will be a backup sooner than later and he shouldn't even being going in the top 100. If you really want to take a backup RB in the single digit rounds, go for the best backup in the best rushing offense (Michael Turner) or a guy who displayed the goods to be a fantasy stud down the stretch who happens to be behind a starter whose injury history is growing faster than his list of characters (Ladell Betts).

Mike Brown - I'm not sure if anyone noticed, but the Vikings used their first round pick on a running back. I think it was a good one too. What that means for Taylor is that he's going to be on the outside looking in at the lion's share of the carries. And it's really through no fault of his own, as he had a very solid 2006. But when your team drafts Adrian Peterson, it's not so he can stand on the sideline and watch the veteran tote the rock 20 times per game. I realize that Taylor's downgrade is evidenced by his low standing. I just think it'll go even lower. You have to consider the probability that Peterson takes over the reins sooner rather than later. And once he does that, he's not giving it back. Taylor is, to me, a guy that you draft only if you're well-stocked elsewhere or you've got Peterson on your roster. And I think by draft day, Taylor's stock will have fallen enough to the point that he'll be one of the first handcuffs off the board but not necessarily a guy that other owners will look to for regular production.

Chris Smith - If the Vikings hadn't selected rookie RB Adrian Peterson in the NFL Draft, Chester Taylor would be able to surpass his 61st overall draft slot. However Peterson is the kind of player that comes out once every few seasons and he'll get more and more work as the season wears on. As an early 6th round pick there are better options to be had and if you do draft him it will make sense to move him after a few games as Peterson is likely to see more work as the season goes on.

Maurile Tremblay - Taylor had a very productive year last year, but his team situation will be significantly different in 2007. Notably, the Vikings spent their first-round pick on a franchise running back who simply outclasses Taylor in terms of power, overall run skills, and big-play ability. Adrian Peterson should become the Vikings' featured runner by the midway point of the season, leaving Taylor too few carries to justify his current draft position. Taylor will still be part of the offense, especially in the passing game, but I expect him to get fewer touches than backs like Julius Jones, Warrick Dunn, Fred Taylor, and Lamont Jordan -- all of whom are being drafted after Taylor is.

Jeff Pasquino - This one may come as a surprise, but this is more of a concern about his weekly production and his consistency. Given that Bush gets about a third of his touches in the passing game, some of the uncertainty that goes along with wide receivers translates over to Reggie Bush as a "running back". Yes he finished as the #17 fantasy RB last season, but a lot of that production came in a few choice weeks. Bush only topped 10 fantasy points on six occasions, highlighted by three 20+ point games in Weeks 13-16. If you had tried to rely on Bush to get you into the fantasy postseason in 2006, you were likely rather frustrated by his lack of production in September and October. Bush may very readily finish in the Top 10 this season, but for a consistent #1 RB for fantasy purposes I would consider another option.

Jason Wood - I'm a big fan of Reggie Bush; there's no denying his explosiveness as both a runner and receiver. But ranking him 9th seems to ignore the realities of the Saints situation. They fielded one of the league's most potent offenses last year thanks in no small part to the combined might of Bush and Deuce McAllister. It was, in fact, McAllister who set the tone on the ground with 244 carries for 1,057 yards and 10 touchdowns. Bush averaged just 3.6 yards per rush and was far better utilized as a slot receiver (88 receptions for 742 yards). Unless someone knows something about McAllister that I don't, I see no reason why he's not in line for another 250-280 touches which means Bush will again be relegated to a similar amount. Under those circumstances, I can't envision Bush delivering top-10 value without also taking away the short yardage touches from Deuce. Does anyone really want to argue for that?

David Yudkin - Bush may someday be a fixture in the Top Ten, but given that Deuce McAllister is still around and productive means that Bush's ascent may have to wait. Bush will see the minority share of the carries and scoring opportunities, and it's unlikely that he will be able to catch many more passes than he did last season (88). Even with a scathing second half finish to 2006, Bush could only muster a #17 ranking. He's much more valuable in a PPR league, but in standard scoring leagues 150 carries and a 3.6 ypc makes it hard to justify a Top Ten ranking, especially with another Top 15 back getting more of the workload.

Andy Hicks - The decision by Detroit to sign Tatum Bell and T.J. Duckett was a clear sign that all was not well with Kevin Jones and his attempts to get over the dreaded Lisfranc injury. It occurred late in the season meaning any efforts to be ready for the start of this season are going to be shaky at best. Even if he is passed fit for the season opener, vital preparation time has been lost and as has been proven many times, poor preparation does not lead to good fantasy stats. With stories suggesting he could be put on the PUP list, his 2007 season could be extremely limited and if the other backs on the roster take their chances, his prospects are bleak. At his current draft slot he's tremendous value if fit, but that's too big an "if" when dealing with an injury that is very difficult for running backs to recover from effectively.

Jeff Pasquino - Consider me from Missouri, because I am in complete and total "show me" mode with Kevin Jones right now. Jones is certainly a talented running back and he operates in the Mike Martz high powered offense, so if he is ready to go for Week 1 then I am much more supportive of how he will do in 2007. Unfortunately for Kevin Jones and his fans, I do not expect him to be ready for September. With his current projection of being a Top 30 fantasy running back that gets drafted at or near the end of the fifth round, the chances of him disappointing for half the season or longer as a zero contributor keep me far, far away from Jones for 2007.

Mark Wimer - According to head coach Rod Marinelli, Jones may start the season on the physically unable to perform list due to his ongoing struggles to rehabilitate his injured/surgically repaired left foot. If he is indeed on the PUP list, fantasy owners with Jones on the roster will automatically lose at least 6 weeks of fantasy production, and Jones will likely be rusty when it comes to re-activate him to the roster. Tatum Bell figures to open the season as the starter at this point, and if he plays well Jones may well end up bench-warming for much of 2007. Jones' current ADP of 30th RB (a #3 RB) is way too rich for my blood -- I have him at #47 as of mid-June, and he's on thin ice to stay on my RB board at all due to the lingering and serious injury questions surrounding this player.

Sigmund Bloom - It's always risky to take a player at a draft slot that assumes he will hit his ceiling, and Addai's ADP of #6 overall does just that. Addai has never been a bell cow, and he has also been injury prone in the past. Either the Colts push him and risk reaching his physical breaking point, or they try to give him a workload similar to 2006. Either way, his chances of justifying a pick at #6 are in jeopardy. Addai is not built like a workhorse back, and he's not an effective short yardage runner. In fact, Peyton Manning equaled Addai's total rushing TDs inside the five last year (4).

Aaron Rudnicki - Addai finished last year as the #11 fantasy RB and put on a strong performance in the Colts run to the Super Bowl. Clearly, many people are expecting improvement now that he'll no longer be sharing carries with Dominic Rhodes. However, he also remains somewhat unproven as a feature back who can be just as effective when getting 20+ carries/game.

Sigmund Bloom - While it's tempting to think that Barber would assume his rightful place as the more featured back in the Cowboys offense in 2007, the new coaching staff has shown no signals that they believe Barber is the better back. In fact, any comment about the RB situation points to things being exactly as they were in 2006. If you're taking Barber in the early 4th, you're probably starting him every week -- which means you are subject to take huge hits any time a game unfolds without a touchdown for Barber. Selecting Barber when there are still elite QBs and WR1 options left on the board is a classic case of wishful thinking. He may get his chance to be a feature back in the future, but it won't be on the 2007 Cowboys.

Aaron Rudnicki - Barber had an impressive season last year and finished as the #14 RB despite getting just 135 carries and not even leading his team in rushing. His lofty fantasy ranking was primarily due to his role as the Cowboys goalline back that helped him score 16 TDs. With a new coaching staff in place this year, however, the roles of Barber and Julius Jones may not remain the same. Jones will also be entering a contract year so he'll have extra motivation to have a huge season and could convince the coaches to use him as a workhorse.

Aaron Rudnicki - Maroney is a very talented RB who should see a significant increase in carries now that Corey Dillon is no longer around. But, the Patriots have made a lot of other moves this offseason which suggest that Maroney won't exactly be the focal point of the offense. Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, and Wes Welker were all brought in to completely revamp the receiving group and give Tom Brady the best collection of pass weapons he's ever had. They also lost their best blocking TE in Daniel Graham and have several RBs who have been effective in committee situations (Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris). Perhaps the biggest concern is that Maroney has been battling shoulder problems this offseason and may not be durable to handle a 300 carry workload.

Mark Wimer - The question marks surrounding Laurence Maroney are due to his ill-defined shoulder injury. We know an exploratory surgery found enough damage to warrant surgical repair. We know that Maroney has participated only minimally in practices so far this spring. Beyond that, his progress rehabbing the shoulder surgery is unknown -- and the Patriots aren't giving out any details. With injury issues lingering, taking Maroney as your #1 RB is assuming a lot of risk, in my opinion.

Mark Wimer - McGahee began his Buffalo career with 284/1128/13 rushing and 22/169/0 receiving, diving to 259/990/6 rushing and 18/156/0 receiving by his third year. He averaged 3.8 yards-per-carry the last 2 years. Baltimore's rush unit was 25th during 2006 averaging 102.3 yards per game - 3.4 YPC (31st in the NFL). During 2005, the team averaged 3.55 YPC, 27th in the NFL. This isn't a pretty picture -- McGahee is not worth the risk at an ADP of 10. He'll cost you a first round pick and very well may not produce first round-caliber statistics. He's RB #18 on my board as of mid-June.

Jason Wood - Willis McGahee was part of the problem, not the solution in Buffalo. And what did that get him? A ticket to a Super Bowl contender and a monster new 7-year contract. While McGahee's change of scenery could mean a return to the promise he showed in 2004, I don't think it's a bet worth making. At his current ADP, someone is drafting McGahee as their RB1. In the immortal words of P.T. Barnum, there's a sucker born in every fantasy draft. Let's look at the facts. McGahee has averaged a paltry 3.8 yards per rush each of the last two seasons. Despite needing 125 yards in his final two games last season, he failed to break the 1,000-yard mark. He scored a whopping 6 touchdowns, and has notched a grand total of 11 over the last two years. And he's been a virtual non factor in the passing game. The Ravens averaged 3.5 yards per rush as a team over the last two years. Does this sound like a great situation? I didn't think so.

Aaron Rudnicki - White likely arrived at this high ADP due to the lack of options on the Titans roster. Rookie Chris Henry was considered a reach by many when the Titans took him in round 2 after a lackluster college career, but at this point he seems to have just as good of a chance to become the feature back as White if not better. White has reportedly been out of shape this offseason which is particularly disturbing when you consider that he had a great opportunity waiting for him. He may not have the work ethic or the desire necessary to become a great pro. Further weakening his value, the Titans recently re-signed veteran Chris Brown who is a more proven runner despite his durability concerns.

David Yudkin - LenDale White has been afforded many opportunities to earn the starting running back job in Tennessee and has done very little with them. He's been cited for being overweight, unmotivated, and uninspired. He only mustered up 61 carries in 2006 and he may have seen his 2007 value take a sizable hit with the Titans recently bringing back Chris Brown. The addition of rookie Chris Henry stands as another blow to White's chances. If Brown regains his role of starter, White's value would plummet. White would likely not see enough touches even in a RBBC scenario to rank as the #34 running back.

Andy Hicks - DeAngelo Williams will be part of a dreaded Running Back By Committee. He'll have some good games and some bad ones, but he cannot be relied upon to be your 2nd back, which is where you'll probably have to take him. Williams was outperformed by DeShaun Foster last year and will have another tough task to win the job outright this year. Although the Panthers promise to run the ball more this year, quite often that is wishful thinking and secondly who's to say that if does come true that the carries goes to Williams? Williams has not been able to prove he can handle the job and was unable to win a bigger role last year. What has changed?

David Yudkin - The fantasy universe is definitely jumping to conclusions on the Carolina running game. I've been in touch with "sources close to the team," and at this stage Williams has not be tabbed as the starter and by all accounts heading into training camp DeShaun Foster has a leg up on the starting job. Foster stayed as the primary ball carrier throughout the 2006 season. Panthers' head coach John Fox has shown a track record for staying loyal to his veterans. Several years ago, Stephen Davis was recovering from major surgery and very ineffective and Fox still kept feeding him the ball. At some point during the year Williams may be able to turn the tables on Foster, but that's pure speculation at this point. Fantasy owners have been discussing Williams as if he already inherited the throne when in fact he has not. Over the past three seasons, the Panthers have an average team ranking of 24th in rushing yards, 25 in ypc, and 20th in rushing TD. This looks like a RBBC in every sense of the word, and splitting up a small pie does not normally provide very big slices.

Mike Brown - Alexander's prospect for 2007 are sure to be one of the most divisive amongst fantasy owners. Is he a guy who is very quickly headed down that slippery slope where age has seemingly caught up to him? Or is he just a guy that had his first down year and is poised for a big comeback to previous levels? As I've said many times before and as is often the case, the truth lies somewhere in between. The problem is, his name is Shaun Alexander. Before his record-breaking season, you could hope to land him in the middle of the first round. Now, even with a poor season behind him, you have to spend those sort of picks just on the HOPE that he'll turn it around. Thanks, but that's not what I'm looking for in Round 1.

Sigmund Bloom - No matter how you slice it, Maurice Jones-Drew is still a member of a running back by committee. You just can't count on him reproducing his blistering pace of ten touchdowns in the final eight games of 2006. The Jaguars established in mid-2006 that the ideal split was 15-20 carries for Fred Taylor and 10-15 touches for Jones-Drew. That means he would need to continue to frequently break long TDs to justify his ADP unless Taylor gets hurt - and Taylor has shed the "fragile" label. Jones-Drew is even sneaking into the first round in some drafts -- he's exactly the kind of player that will go to the owner who is overly optimistic about him in every league, relieving the rest of us from a tough decision about Jones-Drew in the late second.

Chris Smith - Over the last several years, Dunn's ADP of around 70 would be considered strong value. But with the Falcons changing the rushing scheme on offense, Dunn's age and Jerious Norwood looking ready to shine, Dunn could see a drastic difference in touches this season. Avoid Dunn and instead target Norwood.

Mike Brown - If there were more skill guys on the Giants in the Top 200, I'd probably have them listed here as well. I just don't see a lot of good things in store for New York for 2007, and Jacobs is certainly one of them. It's one thing to come off the bench and spell Tiki Barber for plays at a time. It's quite another to carry the load all by yourself. It's not like Jacobs is coming in and running on a defense that's winded from chasing Barber down all over the place. Jacobs has nice talent; Barber was a Hall of Fame type of talent. Teams will now be gunning for him, game-planning for him, and he'll take no one by surprise. That alone could be enough to bump a guy down in a typical season. The fact that the Giants offense is heading in the direction it is just detracts even more.

Andy Hicks - Repeat after me, Edgerrin James plays for Arizona, Edgerrin James plays for Arizona. Please let that sink in before you spend a 2nd or early 3rd round pick on him. He is not the player who was a top 10 back for 5 years at Indianapolis. For a start he's older, secondly the talent level surrounding him is not of a similar quality and thirdly we have a change in coaching staff. Sure Edgerrin James got his carries last year, a whopping 337 of them, but the best he could manage was a 3.4 yards per carry average. He was still an active receiver, but his yards per catch was a poor 5.7. All this was only good enough to propel him to a 20th ranking. Assuming things will get better this year is not a given. There is every chance James will see less touches as the Cards attempt to maximize his production. It's very hard to see top 10 stats from James this year and that makes it very difficult to pick him at his current ADP.

Jeff Pasquino - Thomas Jones held off the challenge of Cedric Benson for two seasons, keeping the starting tailback job in Chicago despite the rookie's high draft pick and big contract. Many are expecting his 1,210 rushing yard and six touchdowns to only go up as the newest rusher for the New York Jets this year. The Jets do have a solid offensive line, but with Leon Washington I expect that the Jets will operate another running back by committee approach. The Jets also play in a much tougher division and have to air it out more against the likes of New England and Baltimore this season. Owners drafting Jones in the first three rounds or in the Top 20-25 running backs are likely to be rather disappointed.

Chris Smith - I love McAllister and what he brings to the table but 32nd overall is simply too high for him this season. Reggie Bush will get more positive carries this season cutting into McAllister's touches and only an injury to Bush will slot McAllister into a 3rd round pick this season. McAllister is a great player for the Saints but only an average fantasy performer in 2007.

David Yudkin - The problem in drafting Turner is that he is a very expensive insurance policy for a LaDainian Tomlinson owner or a very high priced gamble by other owners. Turner will only yield value at this spot if LT were to succumb to injuries and miss some time. The math does not work in Turner's favor. The #38 RB last year scored 106 fantasy points. Turner, who received a career high 80 carries, scored just 67. Even with a staggering career YPC average of 6.0, Turner won't see the field enough to merit his selection in the Top 90 overall picks. In many fantasy drafts, there will be fantasy starting QB and WR still on the board. As talented as Turner is, he's still a risky pick that early in a draft given his likely limited role in San Diego.

Jason Wood - Why on Earth would you feel comfortable drafting Cadillac Williams as the 21st running back off the board? This is a guy who came into the league with questions about his durability, having split carries at Auburn with Ronnie Brown and others. Since then, he has been a walking poster boy for the injury list, breaking down in his 2nd month in the league. Last season, when everyone was predicting a breakout, Williams regressed to disturbing levels. His YPC dropped from 4.1 as a rookie to 3.5 last year. His touchdowns fell from 6 to 1. He played 14 games, yet never seemed healthy; and yet insisted he was healthy and ready to contribute. One of two things happened; either Williams was hurt and it's chronic, or he simply isn't tough. Neither is the kind of back I want to draft as high as RB21. When you add in the suspect condition of the Bucs offensive line, and Williams' subpar skill set as a receiver, it makes no sense to pull the trigger on him unless he falls considerably.