Undervalued RBs

Mike Brown - Henry leaves a volatile situation in Tennessee, where no one knew on a given week who the actual starter was long-term (between Henry, Chris Brown, and rookie LenDale White). He enters about as good a situation as a running back could possibly wish for with the Broncos. Denver has proven repeatedly that whoever they choose to run for them is going to put up some big numbers. It doesn't have to be potential Hall of Famers like Terrell Davis or Clinton Portis, either. It could be bruisers like Mike Anderson or converted fullbacks, such as Reuben Droughns was. Henry has one of the better track records of anyone who is going TO the Broncos from another team during the Shanahan era. Whether that means he puts up better numbers than any of them remains to be seen; but he's certainly got the opportunity to do so.

Aaron Rudnicki - After being forgotten about by most, Henry had a great comeback season last year with the Titans. He parlayed that success into a large contract with the Broncos, a team with a long history of churning out productive runners. Henry gives the Broncos the most talented RB they've had since they traded Clinton Portis. He figures to get a heavy workload, including goal-line duties, and should have little trouble finishing among the top-10 RBs if he stays healthy.

Mark Wimer - Henry is positioned to be "the" Bronco back, after last year's flirtation with running back by committee contributed to the failure of Denver to penetrate the playoffs. Guys like Terrell Davis and Clinton Portis were fantasy monsters when featured in Denver -- Henry would seem to be a lock for top 10 fantasy production in that role. He's a bargain at his current ADP of 14th fantasy RB selected.

Jason Wood - The Denver Broncos have been using a committee approach in recent years. But don't confuse the situation, Mike Shanahan very much prefers to have one workhorse back. Why else do you think also-rans like Mike Anderson and Olandis Gary notched 1,000-yard seasons? If you look at the Broncos RB situation in aggregate, they remain one of the most productive units. As a team, the Broncos were 9th in attempts, 8th in yards and 9th in yards per rush a season ago. This year, Shanahan moved decisively to bring in Travis Henry via free agency, and locked him up to a big, multi-year contract. He also traded away Tatum Bell. Make no mistake; Travis Henry is set to be the Broncos workhorse. Historically, RBs have notched almost a full yard more per rush in Denver than they have at other spots during their career. Even if Henry settles for half of the average improvement, he's going to average 4.6 yards per rush and is a surefire bet for 300+ carries. Mark this down; if Henry stays healthy he will rush for 1,400+ yards and double digit TDs. That's worth a lot more than RB15, his current ADP.

Sigmund Bloom - Peterson is a risky pick in the 5th, no doubt about it, but he's the kind of risk that propels you to a championship. He's a true workhorse who gets stronger as the game goes on. While he carries the injury risk of a still-healing collarbone, he also has possibly the best left side in the league (Bryant McKinnie and Steve Hutchinson) opening holes for him. The Vikings may express a desire to run a committee, but Peterson should be decisively better than Chester Taylor from the get-go -- his skills demand a feature back load. He's got top 10 upside if everything clicks, and he should have some huge games even if it doesn't.

Andy Hicks - Anyone who has seen the Minnesota Quarterback and Wide receiver situation knows that they are going to run the ball an awful lot this year. Enter highly prized first round draft pick Adrian Peterson. He doesn't even need to beat Chester Taylor outright to exceed his current draft slot, but by the seasons end should see the majority of the ball. This is all without the possibility of Peterson being a very special back. He is big, has electrifying speed, is a natural runner and has a nose for the end zone. Peterson could make his current draft slot laughable and by the time you'd have to draft him you'd probably already have at least 2 other backs on your roster anyway. He's unlikely to finish 28th, he'll either be much higher or much lower. The gamble is well worth it.

Bob Magaw - Peterson has been one of the most anticipated pro prospects of the past decade (at any position), ever since he burst onto the scene with one of the greatest freshman seasons in NCAA history. Elite, extraordinarily rare combination of size (6'2" 218), speed (sub-4.4), explosiveness (38.5" vertical jump) and power (he has the upper body of a LB). He is the total package, not only in terms of his triangle numbers and overt measurables, but in his exemplary work ethic, burning intensity to be great and the competitiveness of a champion. As a size/speed physical specimen and in his freakish suddenness, burst and instant acceleration, he is reminiscent of Eric Dickerson and Bo Jackson. Has the natural running instincts, vision, balance, cutting ability and elusiveness of the great ones. Durability is undoubtedly a concern, but his injuries haven't been catastrophic and don't reveal a chronic pattern. MIN HC Brad Childress will nearly instantaneously come to the realization that Peterson is the most dangerous and explosive weapon on the field for the Vikings (he is bigger, faster and far more talented than incumbent Chester Taylor). Watch him destroy his ADP like he dispatches a horrifically outmatched DB in the open field with a crushing stiff arm.

Maurile Tremblay - Chester Taylor isn't the kind of RB who can keep a top ten draft pick on the bench. Peterson is one of the more talented RBs to come out of the draft in recent years, and should make a huge impact as a rookie. Don't believe talk of an RBBC in Minnesota; Peterson is a better runner than Taylor and gives the Vikings the best chance to move the ball. He should get the majority of the work at RB this year from the outset, and ought to be the featured back over the second half of the season. He is being drafted as a fantasy backup, but should be a solid fantasy starter down the stretch and during the fantasy playoffs.

Mike Brown - Benson obviously has the talent and skills to start at tailback, as evidenced by his work down the stretch last year. There was much talk during the off-season that the Bears were going to bring in another veteran to replace Thomas Jones and run alongside Benson. That, however, never materialized...even when Chris Brown became available. This suggests to me that the Bears, a legitimate title contender, feel very secure with Benson as "their guy" and expect him to carry an extremely heavy workload. Combining a stellar defensive team with a good offensive line and a top talent at running back, and you've got all the makings of a Pro Bowl caliber season.

Maurile Tremblay - Cedric Benson inherits the lead role in the Bears' rushing attack this season. The Bears rant he ball over 500 times in 2006, and should again remain a ground-oriented offense in 2007. If Benson gets only 60% of the team's carries, he could be looking at over 300 rushing attempts -- a figure that would nearly guarantee him to out-produce his current draft position. At even just 3.8 yards per carry (compared to Benson's career average of 4.1), 300 carries would put him at 1140 rushing yards. Throw in 100-150 receiving yards and 8-10 rushing touchdowns and you're looking at a top 15 fantasy RB -- and, to me, that represents Benson's downside (as long as he stays healthy). Benson is much more likely to out-perform his average draft position than to fall short of it, which makes him a great value.

Jason Wood - The Bears have an identity. When you're coming off a Super Bowl appearance, you don't make major changes. Yet, the Bears were willing to let Thomas Jones go. The ONLY logical reason to allow Jones to leave is because the Bears are certain Cedric Benson is ready to take control of the offense. Fantasy owners too often let their most recent memory of a player cloud their judgment. In this case, we can use that to our advantage and draft a potential top-10 back on the cheap. Benson is a physically-imposing, classic, power runner. To say he was dominant at the University of Texas would be an understatement. Unfortunately a long holdout and then injury set him back; at just the same time Thomas Jones decided to resurrect his career. Yet, this season, Benson is THE key to the Bears success. QB Rex Grossman isn't going to throw the ball a lot, at least if the Bears want to win games. Benson will be asked to tote the rock at least 300 times this season, if not more. As long as he looks healthy during training camp, he's an outright bargain at current ADP.

Sigmund Bloom - I know it's strange, but it looks like the same team that relegated Brown to the third string in 2006 will be giving him a shot at the starting job in 2007. Brown has been a solid fantasy back in the past, and defenses preoccupied with Vince Young will be vulnerable to a strong runner like Brown. The Titans seem to be showing a lack of trust in LenDale White, and Chris Henry has not done enough to be counted on thus far in his career. Brown is a proven back with a legitimate chance to start at a bargain basement price and should be selected at least two to three rounds earlier than his his late 14th round ADP.

Jason Wood - I'm not going to sit here and tell you that Chris Brown is a stud in waiting. The fact is, he runs upright and is chronically fighting off injury. Were he a stud, the Titans wouldn't have let him test the free agent waters in the same season Travis Henry walked. That said, he's worth a LOT more than RB50 given his situation. The Titans offensive line is actually quite good personnel wise. While it's not going to be confused for the Eagles front five, it's hardly one of the league's worst either. After testing free agency, Brown and the Titans reunited with a one-year deal. The Titans would not have re-signed him if they had any confidence that Chris Henry and LenDale White were up to the task. They're not. Meanwhile Brown wouldn't have signed a one-year deal (after having multi-year offers from several other teams according to unverified reports) if he wasn't betting on a productive healthy season. Brown knows the offense, and if somehow he can stay healthy, he will destroy his current ADP.

David Yudkin - Brown likely won't mount a charge as a Top Five or even Top Ten candidate, but he should be able to outclass #50 in the RB rankings. Brown fell out of favor last season and toured many camps looking for a new home as a free agent this off-season. The Titans apparently did not love what they saw in LenDale White and rookie Chris Henry, as they just re-signed Brown. From 2004-2005, Brown averaged 92 yards from scrimmage and 0.5 TD per game. That's EXACTLY what recently departed Travis Henry averaged per game in 2006 when he ranked 22nd (even missing two games and seeing a handful of carries in another). Brown knows the Titans system and may be able to reclaim the starting role. Last year's #50 running back was Vernand Morency, who posted 552 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns on the season.

Jeff Pasquino - Does anyone remember the other running back in the Jacksonville offense last year? Maurice Jones-Drew stole all the thunder is suddenly a Top 10-15 running back in most drafts, yet everyone is forgetting about the other veteran in the Jaguars backfield. Much like Deuce McAllister was overlooked in 2006 when Reggie Bush was all the rage (and he did quite well), Fred Taylor is getting similar treatment this year. Identifying running backs that will slip down the charts and be available in the sixth round like Fred Taylor is just the kind of depth that will be found on many 2007 fantasy championship teams. Very quietly he put up Top 20 numbers last year, even when he was sharing touches. Jacksonville loves to use both running backs in their offense, and Taylor's recent contract extension validates that this is the plan going forward as well. Savvy fantasy owners should pick up Taylor in the sixth round this year.

Aaron Rudnicki - Taylor has only finished lower than RB33 once during his 9-year career and that came in the 2001 season when he only played in 2 games. Taylor may seem old at 31 years of age, but he's actually had a pretty light workload the past 2 seasons (194 and 231 carries, respectively) and set a career-high with 5.0 yards per carry in 2006. The emergence of Maurice Jones-Drew certainly helps take some pressure off him but Taylor remains the starter and should have little trouble outperforming his ADP while playing behind one of the league's better run-blocking lines.

David Yudkin - This is another of the two back situations where the established back is taking a dive in fantasy drafts even though he posted great numbers the year before. Maurice Jones-Drew got all the headlines but Fred Taylor got more touches and had a solid season, ranking as the #18 RB. Taylor just signed a three-year contract extension and is getting paid $5 million a year, making it unlikely that he will be riding the bench any time soon. In his ninth year in the league, Taylor set career highs in yards per carry and yards per reception and show no signs of slowing down. Last year's #35 running back scored 116 fantasy points. Taylor scored 175. He's still the starter with Jones-Drew the understudy, and while MJD may eat into Taylor's totals, it's unlikely that Taylor will lose 30-40% of his production.

Jeff Pasquino - One of the biggest winners of the 2007 NFL Draft was about 1,000 miles away from New York City at the time. Many experts expected that the Falcons would be drafting a bigger and more powerful running back for 2007 and beyond, as new head coach Bobby Petrino had been revamping the offensive line in preparation for changing the rushing game and the offense in general. Without Atlanta taking a tailback (no, seventh round pick Jason Snelling doesn't count -- he's a fullback regardless), Warrick Dunn stands to benefit. In addition, Dunn should also see more passes thrown his way as Petrino wants QB Michael Vick to improve on his completion percentage, which should mean more shorter throws incorporated into the Atlanta offense. Dunn has always been a solid receiver out of the backfield. Look for him to probably double his reception total, returning to his average for his first six seasons.

Mark Wimer - Warrick Dunn plays on the most run-oriented team in the NFL (537 rushes for 2939 yards last year, and a 5.47 yards-per-carry average -- all #1 in the NFL). Over the past 3 years he's finished 24th, 12th and 15th among fantasy RBs and has played a full 16 game slate in each of those years. With 500+ carries to share among Dunn, Jerious Norwood and Michael Vick, Dunn will see enough action to land among the top 25 fantasy RBs again this year, even if Norwood actually ends up being the top ball-carrier for the team. He's a bargain at an ADP of 33rd running back selected.

Chris Smith - Ahman Green is going to surprise a lot of folks this season. Green may have hit the dreaded 30-year old mark but he quietly had a very strong season last year and with a better-than-thought offensive line to open holes for him Green should have another monster year.

David Yudkin - Seven Houston running backs accounted for 2,034 yards from scrimmage and 12 TD last season but since that was divided among so many players, not many people noticed. That's 275 fantasy points, and even if Green only gets two thirds of that, that would be 183 points and would have ranked as the #14 RB last season. Domanick Davis (now Williams) ranked 14th, 5th, and 17th playing for the Texans and he never played in a full season--and that was before Gary Kubiak took over as head coach and established what should prove to be a more productive rushing attack. Green should easily provide RB2 numbers (in 12-team leagues) and could be available in the late fourth or early fifth rounds.

Will Grant - Jackson has a big upside in the fact that Vernand Morency is not even close to a lock as a starter, and Jackson is hungry to prove himself. The Hydra-like running attack of the Packers posted more than 2400 yards from scrimmage in 2006. If Jackson can win the starting job in training camp and secure the majority of the rushing attack, he'll be well worth the 9th round pick that he's going for right now.

Maurile Tremblay - Jackson is currently being drafted as if he were a sub-par NFL backup; but by the time the season starts, he may be the Packers' featured RB -- or at least part of a solid RBBC. Jackson's main competition for the starting job is Vernand Morency, who has yet to rush for 500 yards in a season. If the Packers were sold on Morency, they likely wouldn't have spent a second-round pick on Jackson. And while Jackson must improve his blocking and receiving skills, he is probably a better pure runner than Morency and is more likely to be christened the "RB of the Future" in Green Bay. Expect him to get the majority of the rushing workload this season for the Packers, and to solidly outperform his average draft position.

Bob Magaw - Jones has two of the top single game rushing performances for a franchise with a storied RB tradition. During the 2006 season, he averaged 100+ yards rushing in games with near 20 carries, and inexplicably had just 9 receptions (expect an uptick). Leonard Davis could be a massive upgrade as a drive blocker. Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn and Jason Witten comprise a dangerous passing attack to keep defenses honest. As if he needed it, Jones also has the added motivation of a contract year. The ominous specter of TD vulture Marion Barber III still looms, but that is precisely what makes him such a potentially good value. Barber scored 16 TDs last season (a total he will be hard pressed to approach in 2007), a big reason he has a similar ADP to Jones... yet he has averaged only 40 rushing YPG in each of his first two seasons. New HC Wade Phillips may prefer to ride the hot hand, and with an ADP in the RB30s, Jones represents a low risk, high yield proposition if he emerges as the primary starter.

David Yudkin - The fantasy world is doing back flips over Marion Barber III and I'm not sure why. Even the Cowboys coaching staff considers Jones their starting RB and Barber a capable backup. Jones started out on fire but ended up in Bill Parcells doghouse and saw less action after Tony Romo was inserted as the starting quarterback. Jones should again see the lion's share of the workload with Parcells gone, and the new regime has indicated they want to get Jones a lot more involved in the passing game after he caught just nine passes in 2006. Barber will likely stay as the short yardage back but Jones should be an excellent fantasy RB3 and could put up low-end RB2 numbers (in 12-team leagues).

Andy Hicks - Unlike most first round rookie running backs in recent years Marshawn Lynch will pretty much walk in as the starter. Anthony Thomas is not going to be anything except relief. The Bills need to improve their running game from somewhere in the bottom 10 last year, to the opposite end of the league this year. The drafting of the highly skilled, all round Lynch goes towards addressing that need, as does the signing of 3 free agent lineman. Lynch is probably the best placed of any rookie running back to exceed 1000 yards and with him likely to heavily figure in the passing game he seems a very good bet to be worth much more than a late 4th rounder.

Mark Wimer - Lynch steps into a featured running back role He has only aging veteran Anthony Thomas to beat out for playing time (which won't be too difficult); and he's reputed to be a sure-handed receiver -- meaning he can be an every-down back in this league. Add all his opportunities up and it seems that Lynch should be able to land in the middle of the top-20 at his position by year's end. With a mid-June ADP of 24th running back selected, Lynch looks like a value pick with plenty of upside.

Mark Wimer - Heading into training camp, Ladell Betts is positioned to cement his hold on playing time as he's getting a lot of reps while Portis is out with shoulder and knee woes -- and that situation may continue until training camp (or beyond, depending on how quickly Portis' sore knee heals). Coordinator Al Saunders would like to see Betts and Portis produce 2,000+ yards rushing during 2007, which should mean that there will be plenty of carries to go around. Last year, the Redskins were 8th in the league with 490 carries logged when it was all said and done. It would be no surprise to see Betts collect another 200-250 carries and 50-something receptions again this year, and that is the low end of his potential. If Portis' injury woes linger or something new comes along to afflict him, Betts would have even more value. He has a relatively low amount of mileage on his tires, and isn't dealing with any nagging injuries heading into 2007. He's a bargain at #36 RB selected, and has top-20 potential during 2007.

Mike Brown - Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know. Reggie Bush is already very highly ranked. So I suppose technically he can't be undervalued because everyone is all over him already, right? Well, the thing is...I think by this time next year, there'll be debates involving Bush as the potential first overall pick of fantasy drafts. Suffice it to say, I'm high on his prospects for 2007. He came into the league with much fanfare and failed to live up to any of the hype during the season's early portion. But right around that midway point, he really found his stride and turned it on big-time in the second half. Few (one) running backs in the league put up the kind of stats he did down the stretch, and I fully expect that to continue into 2007. Not only that, but with another year of experience under his best I can certainly see him greatly repeating on his 2006 numbers overall.

Maurile Tremblay - I expect Jacobs to get the majority of the Giants' carries even between the twenties, and I think he's a lock to get most of the goal line carries. Jacobs averaged 4.4 yards per carry last year and scored a team-high nine rushing touchdowns. With Tiki Barber having retired, Jacobs will compete mainly with Reuben Droughns to carry the load for the Giants, and his superior size, strength, and speed should give him a commanding edge. I expect Jacobs to have a breakout season, contributing as a solid RB2 in twelve-team leagues. If he can get double-digit TDs this season (he had nine last year while sharing time with Tiki Barber), he'll need only about 235 carries to be a top 15 RB, which is well within his reach.

Sigmund Bloom - Perhaps the memory of Edge's weak start to 2006 is too fresh in our minds, because he looked like good old Edge in the final six games of the season. He's a true feature back, and the new regime in Arizona wants to run. The offensive line should benefit from the addition of OL guru Russ Grimm and the installation of a smashmouth football philosophy. Edge is one of the safest fantasy RB2 candidates this year -- it's almost unfair that LT owners will have the option of selecting him at the round 2/3 turn in most leagues. Don't be afraid to pull the trigger after Peyton and the uberstud WR1 (Smith, Holt, 85, TO) options are gone.

Andy Hicks - Jamal Lewis is far from washed up. He will only be 28 by the time the season starts, will have the best line Cleveland has seen in years in front of him and is a proven workhorse. Reuben Droughns busted the run of 1000 yard Cleveland backs 2 years ago and with the addition of highly coveted rookie Tackle Joe Thomas and prized free agent acquisition Eric Steinbach the potential of this offensive line should be something Lewis will enjoy, given the relatively disappointing performance of the Baltimore line in the last 2 years. Lewis has been durable over the last few years and can easily take the pounding he should get this year. 300+ carries is almost a certainty and Cleveland should be able to increase on their rushing touchdowns of recent years. This makes Lewis a very good bet to exceed his current draft slot.

Aaron Rudnicki - Morency only had 91 carries a year ago and still managed to finish as the #50 ranked RB. This year Ahman Green is no longer around and Morency has reportedly worked very hard during the offseason to give himself the best chance of becoming the new feature back in Green Bay. If he can get his fumbling problems under control and hold off rookie Brandon Jackson, he has a realistic shot at a top-25 season.

Sigmund Bloom - Willie Parker is entering 2007 as a proven feature back, and he should have every opportunity to finish as high as a top 3 fantasy RB. Bruce Arians new offense should spread the defense and give Parker wider lanes and more chances to break long runs with his world class speed. The team is also planning on giving the Parker the ball more in space, again increasing the chances of more big plays. Parker showed he could get in done in the red zone, and with Bill Cowher gone, he won't be facing defenses sitting on the run with eight (or more) in the box. Parker is a rare fantasy RB who gets the workload to be an RB1 with the explosiveness to score from anywhere on the field.

Will Grant - Anybody watch the Super Bowl? Chicago vs. the Colts? Anyone see Cedric Benson disappear? (2 carries for -1 yards?). It gets better. Aside from the 24 carries that he had against New Orleans in the playoffs, Benson has never touched the ball more than 17 times in a game? Peterson is going to get his carries. He's going to get it a lot more than people think. And if Benson disappears too often this season, or wears down by the end of the season, Peterson is going to be the #1 back on a team that lets their defense control the game, and runs the ball to control the clock. Peterson is worth a flyer this late in the draft.

Andy Hicks - At his current ADP Dominic Rhodes represents excellent value for those looking for a RB3 or bye week replacement. He may lack the upside to be a top 10 back, but should easily be value for money. Rhodes arrives with the new coaching regime and should get an excellent shot at playing time. His main competitor, Lamont Jordan carries with him the baggage of under performance last year and the likelihood of 2007 being his last year at the club. Early reports have Rhodes ahead of Jordan and with his strong running style Rhodes will endear himself to the fans. His terrific performance in Super Bowl XLI is his most recent game and he'll inject a positive attitude into the Raiders dressing room. Don't be afraid to take Dominic Rhodes late in your draft.

Chris Smith - Cadillac Williams had a hugely disappointing season in 2006, but he should be able to rebound in 2007. He is fast, powerful and sees the field well. With a young Buccaneers offensive line improving each season, Williams should slot much higher than late 3rd-round.