Overvalued QBs

Will Grant - Vince Young has come down a bit from the lofty expectations that people set for the Madden Cover-boy earlier this season. However, he's still not down where he should be given the situation he's in. There are some serious questions on offense that have yet to be answered. BIG things like 'Who's going to CATCH the ball' and 'How consistent is the running game going to be under LenDale White, Chris Brown and Chris Henry?' Yes Young is exciting to watch, but this is NOT the year to reach on a fantasy QB and taking Young in the 5th round is just too high.

Andy Hicks - For those seduced by the performance of Vince Young in 2006, please wind the clock back to 2003 when a young man by the name of Michael Vick was to be the future of the quarterback position. In a way he has been, but after that peak performance of 3rd ranked QB, Vick hasn't lived up to those early expectations. Fantasy owners are left reeling at the inconsistency between games and seasons. Like Vick, Young hasn't got a wide receiver worthy of high consideration, but at least Vick has Alge Crumpler. Who has Young got? Vick also has Warrick Dunn and others chipping in to make the Falcons one of the best running teams in the NFL. Young has LenDale White. For those who think Atlanta has a one man show in Michael Vick, what do they think Vince Young is to Tennessee? Opposing defenses will be prepared for Young and I wouldn't be surprised to see sophomore blues on the cards for him this year.

Jeff Pasquino - Young is an immense talent, but I cannot see how he is worth a Top 10 QB selection for 2007. He has virtually no wide receivers to support him in the passing game, and he plays in a very difficult conference in the AFC. Yes he is a great athlete with excellent mobility and running ability, but just because he is an explosive playmaker with those legs does not mean I would want him as my primary quarterback. Part of the reasons that he did so well last year were that the defenses had little NFL film on him and also that the Titans were often in shootouts. Second year starting quarterbacks often underperform, and I don't see enough playmakers in Tennessee to afford Young the kind of help that he would need to be a top quarterback pick for 2007.

Aaron Rudnicki - Young went on an incredible run late last season to win the rookie of the year award. His running ability makes him a very attractive fantasy option and he should still be productive on the ground. The Titans lost their top-2 WRs and their starting RB from a year ago, however, which suggests the offense will likely take a step back. Vince is an amazing talent, but his surrounding talent might be the worst in the league so a top-10 finish seems overly optimistic.

Mark Wimer - QB7? Who is Young going to throw to this year? WR Drew Bennett is gone, WR David Givens' left knee is a wreck, and TE Ben Troupe is coming off a broken ankle (November, 2006) that sidelined him just as Young was developing. Brandon Jones, Courtney Roby, etc. and the host of rookie WRs don't inspire a lot of confidence. The Titan's chemistry is lacking, and their WR cupboard is essentially bare. Young is #13 on my QB board as of mid-June.

Sigmund Bloom - You generally don't want your starting QB1 to play on a team that has declared a new commitment to running the ball in the offseason. There's a chance that the aspiration for 500+ carries in the Whisenhunt/Grimm offense will be just that, an aspiration, because of poor play on the offensive line and a defense that can't contain opposing offenses, but with an ADP8 of QB8, Leinart's current price almost assumes that. Even if the offense remains run heavy, that's no guarantee that Leinart will produce top 10 numbers. Leinart was a nondescript fantasy QB last year, with the exception of one 400 yard game when the Cardinals only attempted 4 rushes. Leinart's upside in the new offense is not significantly higher than the next 7-9 QBs, making him a bit of a reach in the 6th/7th round.

Andy Hicks - Matt Leinart is learning his 2nd offense in his 2nd year in the NFL. He could have a rookie Tackle protecting his blind side and is being drafted as a fantasy starter? Second year QBs who aren't rushing threats historically aren't fantasy starting material, with the obvious Manning exceptions. Looking at Leinart's draft slot you would think he was sensational in his rookie season, but on a points per game basis ranked 23rd, not far away from fellow rookie, Bruce Gradkowski. If the Cardinals adopt a run heavy offense, that is not going to help Leinart accrue fantasy points. Arizona has been a pass happy team in recent years. If that changes significantly, then no way does Leinart warrant a spot as a fantasy starter. Leinart could be a nice fantasy backup, but the risk he presents as your QB1 is too high. Let someone else deal with his 2nd year growing pains.

Maurile Tremblay - Leinart is in a good situation: he plays for a team that should pass a lot, and he has several excellent receivers to throw to. But he is still unproven: his completion percentage, touchdown-to-interception ratio, and yards-per-pass-attempt were middle of the pack last year, and he is being drafted ahead of QBs who have shown a lot more so far, including both other youngsters (Philip Rivers, Tony Romo) and more established veterans (Matt Hasselbeck, Brett Favre). I like Leinart's potential, but given his lack of NFL accomplishments, he is simply too much of a risk to justify his current draft position.

Jason Wood - I'm a fan of Matt Leinart and his supporting cast. That said, ranking him 8th is a big stretch considering the change in the coaching staff and the unproven situation on the offensive line. Last year, the Cardinals threw the ball 546 times and were the league's worst rushing team. With Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm coming over from Pittsburgh, you can be sure the team will be more balanced, which means Leinart will have to take a quantum leap forward in order to justify a QB8 ranking. Digging a little deeper, Leinart ranked a paltry 32nd in fantasy points per touch last year among qualified QBs, yet he's likely due for fewer touches per game this year. To me, that's a recipe for someone better drafted as a backup.

Sigmund Bloom - I don't know how you can trust Eli Manning as a starting fantasy QB after his deterioration in the 2nd half of the 2006 season. If his ugly play wasn't enough to scare you off of Manning (who has never lived up to his last name), his lack of a proven feature back, left tackle, and installation of a new offensive coordinator (Kevin Gilbride, who has already expressed some worry about the prospects of the offense in 2007) should do the trick. His two best fantasy games of 2006 were at least partially attributable to defenses that had let up after opening up double digit leads. The Manning name insures that someone else will pull the trigger long before the draft slot that matches his true value.

Mike Brown - The Giants offense as a whole seems to be sort of stuck with regards to the upcoming season. I don't really like anything they've done this off-season, starting with not finding a suitable complement to Brandon Jacobs (sorry, Reuben Droughns isn't one) and culminating with the process of digging up a left tackle (you know, Eli's blind side) at some point in mid-June. Couple that with Tom Coughlin's status and the fact that the team still hasn't seemed to rid itself of the gossip bug that is so prevalent in the locker room, and I think Eli may be in for another lonnnnnnnnnnnnnnng season.

Maurile Tremblay - Manning finished as the twelfth best fantasy quarterback last season, but had the sixth most passing attempts in the league. In terms of his efficiency (yards per attempt, TD-INT ratio), he regressed last year, and I didn't see any improvement in his mechanics from what he showed in 2005. While Manning does have the arm and athleticism to become an elite NFL quarterback, I would not feel comfortable this year drafting him as a QB1 or one of the top QB2s. He is too inconsistent, both as an NFL quarterback and as a fantasy quarterback, for me select him over the likes of Jon Kitna, Brett Favre, Jake Delhomme, or Chad Pennington.

Jason Wood - I will bet that some of my fellow staff writers will argue Manning is, in fact, undervalued. Please don't listen to them, they're wrong. Understand that Manning finished 11th last season among fantasy QBs, but he regressed in many ways from his 2005 campaign. His yards per attempt dropped from 6.8 to 6.2, and he threw 18 interceptions (2nd worst in the league). Disturbingly, after a blistering September (66% completion, 297 yards passing, 2.66 TDs), Manning played like one of the league's worst in the final three months (56% completion, 179 yards passing, 1.3 TDs). Fast forward to this year and add up the additional risks. 1) Tom Coughlin is a lame duck and appeared to lose the team last year. 2) New OC Kevin Gilbride has an uneven track record. 3) The team has no left tackle, and is likely going to use David Diehl, a guard, at the spot. 4) Tiki Barber, arguably the most important offensive cog of any team in the last few years, is now a TV broadcaster. Mark my words, Manning is a high risk pick as your QB1, let someone else roll the dice.

Mike Brown - McNabb was on his way to a remarkable season last year until he got hurt. But that's the thing -- he's always getting hurt. He's being selected as the #7 QB, yet in terms of total fantasy points he has only finished as a top-7 quarterback two times during his eight-year career. Coming off a torn ACL, I'm not liking the prospects for making it three. That's not to mention the let's call them lesser talents he'll be throwing to. When Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis are two of your major weapons, you know it's probably time to get some more weapons. Yet this is what the Eagles have for now, and they'll have to make do with what they've got. In the meantime, they've made it extremely difficult for McNabb to put up top-flight stats with this crew.

Andy Hicks - One thing you need from your starting QB, especially one you draft in the first 5 rounds, is the ability to be there during the fantasy playoffs. For 3 of the last 5 years and the last 2, McNabb has not been there when his fantasy owners need him the most. McNabb tore an ACL later in the year and for every Carson Palmer there's a Daunte Culpepper when it comes to play the next season. If I'm considering taking McNabb, the words "With their first pick of the 2007 NFL Draft, the Philadelphia Eagles select QB Kevin Kolb" are ringing in my ear. The Eagles obviously have doubts about keeping McNabb as the face of the franchise with moves like that. Adding to concerns about McNabb is the departure of Donte Stallworth, who gave the Eagles a much needed spark in 2006 after the departure of an even better receiver in Terrell Owens the year before. This year I'd let someone else use a high pick on McNabb.

Aaron Rudnicki - McNabb is one of the most productive QBs in the league when healthy, but he's only finished the year as a top-10 fantasy QB once in the past 5 years. Further complicating matters is the fact that he'll be returning from an ACL tear this year. That should limit his running production, make him more susceptible to re-injuring his knee, and give the Eagles added incentive to rely heavily on their running game like they did after Jeff Garcia took over last year. If you draft Garcia this high, you need to get a solid backup to account for the injury risk he carries.

Chris Smith - Donovan McNabb is a very good fantasy quarterback there I simply cannot take him 53rd overall this season. In a nutshell he scares me this season. He isn't the threat to run he once was, doesn't appear to be too happy in Philadelphia, and has had issues staying healthy as of late. Better options to take in the mid fifth-round of your fantasy draft.

Sigmund Bloom - The high-powered San Diego offense will go from boring to a flat-out snoozefest under Norv Turner. Rivers might have the skills to be a top 10 fantasy QB, but he won't get the opportunity to use them very often in San Diego. This team is going to rely on LaDainian Tomlinson and a scary front seven to win games. The tenth QB drafted should be someone that you can expect to start every week. Rivers does not deserve that trust because he's not the focus of the offensive game plan. When the dust settles, there won't be enough separation between Rivers and the rest of the 2nd tier of QBs to merit a selection at the top of that tier.

Jeff Pasquino - I wrote up a pretty extensive downside of Philip Rivers in a face-off in June, so allow me to just summarize the reasons that I do not like Rivers as a primary fantasy quarterback for this season. Defenses facing the Chargers gameplan to stop RB LaDainian Tomlinson first and TE Antonio Gates second, inviting Rivers and the San Diego passing game to make them pay for overplaying the run and the middle of the field. Yet with all that single coverage and opportunity for Rivers and his wide receivers, little was accomplished last season. Rivers just does not have a playmaker to help him at wide receiver. It is also often the case that a second year starter regresses from their first year performances as teams develop better gameplans and an improved library of game film for that signal caller. Lastly, the Chargers are a good team and are happy to take the air out of the ball with the lead. They face stiff competition and are unlikely to have situations where Rivers can pad his stats in garbage time. I am steering clear of Rivers this season.

Mark Wimer - Philip Rivers made the NFL Pro Bowl last season, but he wasn't a top-5 fantasy QB. With 284/460 for 3388 yards, 22 TDs and 9 interceptions, he landed at #9 among fantasy signal callers as of year's end. Now, there's a new coaching staff in town, and a host of young and/or lackluster WRs that will be asked to snag Rivers' passes this year. Vincent Jackson, with 2 years NFL experience and a career best 27/453/6 last year figures to be the #1 WR; #2 belongs to 5-year veteran Eric Parker, whose best season came in 2005 with 57/725/3. (Parker did not catch a TD last season (48/659/0)). Antonio Gates is an all-world TE, but he can't generate a top-10 passing offense single-handed. I look for Rivers to regress during 2007, finishing out of the top 10 (I have him at #15 as of mid-June).

Jeff Pasquino - Cutler enters his second year as a starter, but I do not expect him to outperform 12 other quarterbacks this year and be a starting Fantasy Football quarterback. Javon Walker and Brandon Marshall are the likely starters, but head coach Mike Shanahan just got a new prized running back in Travis Henry and will likely keep Cutler a bit more under wraps in 2007. Ideally the Broncos would like to run first to set up the pass, but not force things to happen through the air. Second year quarterbacks also tend to do less statistically after their first season as teams develop better gameplans and gather more film, so I would expect Cutler to be in the QB14-18 range overall in 2007. I think that his QB order (14) is OK, but I would not pick him up at #92 overall. That seems inordinately early to me.

Chris Smith - Jay Cutler is a talented, young quarterback with many good seasons awaiting him in the NFL. However he is still raw and the Broncos will be relying on great defense and a good running back to win football games. Cutler will have the occasional big game but he won't do enough throughout the season to warrant an ADP slot of 92. He won't be an 8th round quarterback this season.

Mike Brown - Repeat after me: Tony Romo is not Tom Brady, Tony Romo is not Tom Brady, Tony...yes, I was guilty of it as well. And it's not something I'm proud of. Because you know what? Tony Romo had a few good games, and led the Cowboys to some big wins and all that. But he wasn't a fantasy god when he came in. He just got the job done, and moved on. Kind of like a poor man's Trent Green, if you will. That's not exactly getting my hopes up for Romo to put up huge numbers in 2007, and if he's not putting up huge numbers then what good is he really for fantasy teams?

Mark Wimer - Tony Romo ran hot and cold last season after taking over the helm in week 7. He looked like a world-beater at times (22/29 for 306 yards, 5 TDs and 0 interceptions week 12 vs. Tampa Bay) but sometimes looked like a first-year starter (14/29 for 142 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions vs. Philly week 16). This year, he'll be working with a new head coach (Wade Phillips), QB coach (Wade Wilson) and offensive coordinator (Jason Garrett) -- there will be a lot to absorb as the new regime settles into the saddle. It would be no surprise to see Romo come out of the gates cold during 2007, which will limit his fantasy upside. I think he'll significantly under-perform his mid-June ADP as the 9th QB drafted. I currently have him at #18 on my QB board.

David Yudkin - Brees may be the classic case of paying a premium (or even overpaying) to obtain a player the year after a great season. Brees became only the 20th QB to throw for 4,400 yards in a season. Only two were able to hit that level again and only three others could even get 4,000 passing yards the following year. On five occasions, a QB played stayed healthy and dropped off by over 1,000 passing yard. With only about 25% of those players even able to hit 4,000 yards, I'm not loving the history of repeatability in this instance. He may be in for another solid campaign this year, but ranking in the Top Three again will be extremely tough.

David Yudkin - Long story short, Culpepper needs to be a starting QB to rank as the #28 QB. As things look now, it seems very unlikely that he will start in Miami, and there do not appear to be teams where he could wind up where he would be in line to start for the 2007 season. His "Wow" factor since 2004 has clearly gone down, as he's had two injury-plagued seasons filled with 18 turnovers to only ten total TD in his past 11 games in that time. Culpepper looks like a man without a home for this upcoming season. His best bet is to continue rehabbing, sign a one-year deal as a backup, and make a run as a free agent in 2008.

David Yudkin - Schaub could be an upgrade to departed QB David Carr and could evolve into a decent fantasy option. But we know very little about Schaub and his track record is almost non-existent. At the moment, the Texans have Andre Johnson and a serious of question marks at wide receiver. Schaub will need to inject a lot of life into an offense that ranked 28th in points scored, 23rd in passing attempts, 26th in passing yards, 25th in yards per attempt, and 29th in passing TD. Schaub may have growing pains this year as a first year starter, and struggling early on or battling with inconsistency.

Jason Wood - Alex Smith starts the 2007 season with his 3rd offensive coordinator in as many years. That alone would be cause for concern but add in the fact he loses Norv Turner, arguably the league's best veteran coordinator, and must deal with first time coordinator Jim Hostler. If that's not enough to keep you away, remember that Smith plays for a defensive minded coach with a stunningly good running game. It will be difficult, if not impossible, for Smith to get enough passing attempts to warrant serious consideration as a fantasy starter. Finally, his receiving corps is a major question market. Darrell Jackson is a quality addition if healthy, unfortunately there are reports that his turf toe continues to ail him. Absent Jackson, the 49ers have a suspect receiving corps to say the least.