Undervalued QBs

Andy Hicks - Last season Jon Kitna finished as the 6th ranked QB. Calvin Johnson was drafted with the 2nd pick in the NFL draft. Mike Martz gets another season to fine tune the offense. The running game is likely to play a distant 2nd fiddle to the passing game again. So why is Jon Kitna a QB2 according to ADP? Even if he doesn't improve on last years inconsistent play he will still be a solid fantasy starter. Kitna should improve his TD to Interception ratio with a better all round Detroit performance and it will be very hard for Detroit not to improve on 3-13. The backup QBs are a rookie in Drew Stanton and the unproven Dan Orlovsky. Kitna will remain the starter and post good stats. If the offense works even better this year Kitna could exceed his career best 6th ranking. If Kitna is available in the 7th or 8th round of a draft, you have to grab him. He will easily outperform his ADP.

Aaron Rudnicki -

Chris Smith - It is surprising that Kitna is slipping down to 89th on the draft board. He is the starting quarterback in a Mike Martz system, has both Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson to throw the ball to now, performed well last season and should greatly exceed his draft slot in 2007.

Mark Wimer - Jon Kitna is playing in perhaps the most pass-happy offense in the NFL; he has a nice mix of proven veteran leadership (Roy Williams and Mike Furrey) and youthful explosiveness (Calvin Johnson) in the wide receiver stable; and Kitna is now entering his second season in coach Martz's system. All these factors point to a potentially highly explosive season that could land Kitna in the top 5 at his position by year's end -- it would be a surprise to see him finish outside of the top 10. At an ADP of 13th QB selected, Kitna is clearly a great "bargain" choice for your #1 QB.

Jason Wood - Fantasy owners sometimes forget that it's not just about ability. It's about the confluence of ability and opportunity. To that end, few QBs have as much going for them as Jon Kitna does thanks to playing for Mike Martz. Martz' teams are perennially among the league's top passers and this year's Lions should do the same. Their defense is, at best, average and their star running back is on the mend with a Lisfranc injury. The only sure things are Martz' play-calling, Kitna under center, and a cadre of receivers that includes Roy Williams, Mike Furrey and a certain rookie named Calvin Johnson. Johnson is going to play quickly, and Kitna is going to have options downfield on nearly every down and distance. Don't confuse the fact that Jon Kitna is an average talent with his being an average fantasy option. As long as he stays healthy, he's a lock for 4,000 yards passing and 20+ touchdowns. That's gold at his current ADP.

David Yudkin - I spent all of the 2006 preseason BEGGING people to listen that Kitna was a gift from above come draft day given the track record of Mike Martz' offenses over the years. Kitna delivered, ranking as the sixth best fantasy QB and just seven points from the number three spot (and former Martz byproduct Marc Bulger). This year, Detroit added the next great wide receiving prospect in Calvin Johnson. Martz has commented that he was only able to run half of his playbook because he did not have the horses to run the rest. And the subsequent impact of all this is that Kitna's ADP is far LOWER than his ranking was last season. I don't get it, but Kitna will again wind up on a lot of my teams this season. Bulger produced the same numbers as Kitna did but is getting drafted 40+ picks earlier than Kitna. Don't ask why, just take what the fantasy gods give you.

Jeff Pasquino - Last season Favre had Donald Driver for 16 games, but he had consistent injury issues with other receivers as rookie Greg Jennings and veteran Robert Ferguson both missed time last season. Favre still managed to throw for over 3,800 yards for the third year in a row, again throwing for more than a touchdown per game and finishing in the Top 10 once again. Favre never misses a start, holding that record, and has been a Top 12 QB for all but one of his 16 seasons as a starter (and in 2005 he just missed, finishing 13th). Expect Favre to start every game again in 2006, and with questions at RB without Ahman Green, Favre once again should be in the Top 10 in FBG scoring for 2007. The ability to draft Favre as the 18th QB overall in a fantasy draft looks like a complete steal to me.

Mark Wimer - Did Brett Favre suffer a motorcycle accident that broke his throwing arm this past off-season, or something else catastrophic (the answer is no)? I can't account for his ADP of 18, given that Favre has been a top 10 fantasy QB since 1992 except for 2002 (11th) and 2005 (13th). He hasn't finished outside the top 15 since he became Green Bay's starter, and was the #8 fantasy QB last season despite his atypically low total of 18 passing scores. He's thrown for 3800+ yards for the last 3 seasons, for Pete's sake. It would be a shock to see him finish outside of the top 12 QBs this year -- at 18, he's a steal for your #1 QB.

Jason Wood - Did I miss Brett Favre's retirement announcement? If not, someone needs to explain why he's the 18th QB off the board. Sure, his TDs (18) and completion percentage (56%) were below what we've come to expect, but guess what? He still finished as the 8th best fantasy QB with almost 3,900 yards passing. Favre has NEVER finished worse than QB13 in 15 years as a starter, what's changed? He's got a proven receive in Donald Driver, an emerging one in Greg Jennings, and a stable line that started to play very well last year, and an unproven running attack. Unless your league penalizes you more than 1 point per turnover, Favre screams value as your backup.

David Yudkin - Favre threatens to retire every year and never does. He will likely be forced out of the game rather than calling it quits on his own. There's no denying that his best days are behind him, but so far the worst Favre has had to offer has been far better than his ADP is for the upcoming season. Favre's lowest ranking as a start was two years ago when he ranked 13th and hoisted up 29 interceptions. Injuries to his receiving corps caused his TD total to drop below 20 for the first time in 13 years. And YOU KNOW Favre is going to pass the ball A LOT, as last year he set a career high with 613 passing attempts. At this stage he may not be what he once was, but he still is a decent fantasy option and at the very worst a great QB2 option in a 12-team league.

Sigmund Bloom - Roethlisberger's fantasy prospects are on the rise. He has been freed from the shackles of the ultraconservative philosophy of Bill Cowher. He won't be recovering from a near-fatal motorcycle accident and emergency appendectomy. New offensive coordinator Bruce Arians is going to install more three and four WR sets, and Roethlisberger should also absorb yards and a few touchdowns as Willie Parker is expected to get more opportunities on screen passes and plays designed to get him the ball in space. We have already seen that Big Ben has the ability to be a viable fantasy QB -- now that's he coming off a peaceful and in an offense that asks more of him, he's a value at QB16.

Will Grant - A classic case of fantasy football overreaction. People went into 2006 with hopes that Big Ben would post up top 5 numbers. He didn't, and now people are bailing. Here's the thing: Roethlisberger quietly finished 10th among fantasy QBs last season. Fantasy owners respond by passing on him time and time again. This season, he's the captain of a new offense, with more focus on the passing game. Even if he repeated last season's performance, you're looking at top 10 value for a QB16 pick. No brains needed.

Jeff Pasquino - Roethlisberger had a wretched 2006 season, throwing over 20 interceptions, yet somehow he still finished the year as a Top 10 quarterback. To me that was just amazing, but it really makes a solid statement as to how well he performed in the second half of 2006. In his final eight games, he threw at least one touchdown in seven contests and 17 or more fantasy points in six games. The two games that he struggled were against the Baltimore Ravens, so ideally you would not have been starting Roethlisberger against such a solid defense in the first place. He finished with over 3500 yards passing last season, yet now word is that Pittsburgh will be throwing the ball even more in 2007. I believe that 20 touchdowns and 3750 yards are real possibilities, and if the interceptions are brought back under control (he had nine in his final eight games versus 11 touchdowns) Roethlisberger should be in the Top 10 again this year.

Maurile Tremblay - A lot of things went wrong for Ben Roethlisberger last year, and he still finished as the number ten fantasy quarterback. This year he hasn't (yet) been in any motorcycle accidents, he hasn't (yet) had an emergency appendectomy, and he is being drafted as the sixteenth quarterback off the board. Meanwhile, with former run-heavy offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt being replaced by Bruce Arians, who has a history with spread offenses, Roethlisberger could easily get 480+ pass attempts this year, which would be a career high; and 500+ attempts is not out of the question if he stays healthy. Roethlisberger typically averages a high number of fantasy points per pass attempt; he's averaged 0.64 points per pass attempt over the past three years, which would give him 306 points on 480 attempts. That would put him in the upper echelon of fantasy QBs, and yet he is being drafted as a mid-level fantasy backup. He is well worth his current price.

Will Grant - Campbell is having a hard time finding some love. I understand some of that is because there are a lot of questions around the Washington offense, but seeing him fall to the 13th round is almost criminal. This offense has a TON of weapons, and a healthy Clinton Portis combined with an expanded roll for Ladell Betts gives Campbell a lot of options for a young QB to choose from. If this offense can get their stuff together, Campbell is going to be a top 15 QB. Excellent value and upside this late in the draft.

Aaron Rudnicki - Campbell took over the starting QB job in Washington midway through last season and averaged 15.6 fantasy points/game. If he kept up that same pace over a full 16-game season, he would have finished as the #10 QB. The Redskins have a great offensive line, a talented group of receiving weapons, and a very potent RB tandem. For a young QB with limited playing experience, it seems perfectly reasonable to expect improved play from him this year as he gets more and more comfortable. Campbell has breakout potential and represents tremendous value as the 24th QB off the board.

Andy Hicks - Matt Hasselbeck should be at the peak of his powers. He is in a comfortable offense and should have Shaun Alexander returning to his best. Hasselbeck has twice finished in the top 5 fantasy QBs and if it wasn't for a missed game here or there would have gone close more often. He may have lost Darrell Jackson, but with Jackson's recent injury troubles and his tendency to drop lots of catchable balls that may not be a bad thing. He has 3 options in the passing game that have all been successful in Seattle or elsewhere and likely starter, D.J Hackett is primed for a nice season. At his current value Hasselbeck offers terrific value and can most definitely exceed his current ADP. He is one of the surer bets to finish as top 10 fantasy QB, which is all you can ask for considering his draft slot.

Mark Wimer - Hasselbeck missed 2 full games during 2006 due to a sprained MCL, and was rusty when he returned. RB Alexander was sidelined for 6 games. #1 WR Jackson missed 3 games and was limited much of the year due to knee/turf-toe problems. Despite these challenges, Hasselbeck was still the 15th QB in fantasy points per game. Hasselbeck is now on the road to health, he should be 100% by the time regular season rolls around. Deion Branch, his new #1 WR, has a year of experience in the system now and will benefit from a full training camp (last year, he was added to the team at the very end of training camp and deactivated for the first 2 regular season games while he took a crash course in the Seattle offense). Hasselbeck could be a top-5 QB in 2007, and is much more valuable than his mid-June ADP of 11th among fantasy signal callers. I've got him at #8 as of mid-June.

Chris Smith - I believe that Tom Brady will be the #1 fantasy quarterback this season. With the addition of three very good receivers, Brady will be able to elevate his numbers to an elite level in 2007.

Mike Brown - Green leaves a team on the steep decline to one that is in transition. I know, it's not the BEST-case scenario, but it's far better than where he was. The Dolphins offense, at the very least, should be improved with Cam Cameron calling the shots. He worked wonders with the San Diego offense over the last few years. Now, before you go out and expect Chargers east, you have to keep in mind that the names on the back of the Dolphins jerseys aren't Rivers, Tomlinson, and Gates. But still, Green, Brown, and Chambers aren't exactly terrible players. And it's not so much that I expect Green to go out and put up otherworldly stats. I just think there's no way he finishes in the bottom tier of quarterbacks with his track record and the time he'll have to assimilate himself into this offense.

Mike Brown - Leinart has pretty much followed the exact career path of fellow USC alum Carson Palmer. And, like Palmer, Leinart is primed to excel in his second season as a starter. He's surrounded by a ton of weapons, and an innovative offensive-minded head coach who knows how to best utilize the talent he has in front of him. Even if Leinart weren't a hotshot quarterback prospect, the sky would be the limit for this offensive unit. The fact that he comes with the pedigree he does and combined that with the way he closed out the 2006 season before getting hurt, and you can easily see a high top-10 finish amongst QBs for Leinart in 2007.

Sigmund Bloom - With the confidence of the organization and a year in Steve Fairchild's offense under his belt, J.P. Losman is a solid bet to be a quality fantasy QB2 in 2007. His line is gelling around a left side that is anchored by rising star Jason Peters at tackle and free agent addition Derrick Dockery at guard. His ADP of QB22 makes a dirt cheap safe backup if you have selected one of the top 5 fantasy QBs, and his upside is not far off of QBs going 2-4 rounds earlier. The possibilities of a running game that will be depending on a rookie (Marshawn Lynch) and a defense that lost its two best players (London Fletcher-Baker and Nate Clements) faltering only raise Losman's ceiling.

David Yudkin - By this point, McNair is pretty far removed from his days as NFL MVP. But he still is a serviceable QB in the NFL and also for fantasy purposes. Even switching team right before the season started, McNair was still able to rank as the 17th best fantasy QB last year. Prior to that, he had ranked in the Top 15 nine of the previous ten seasons. He does not appear to be pushed or pressured by other QBs on the Ravens' roster, so he should again put up average NFL numbers but far better than Bottom Five numbers as his ADP would suggest. He should make for a decent fantasy backup and bye week fill-in.

Andy Hicks - Philip Rivers had a fantastic first season as a full time starter in the NFL. He passed for 22 touchdowns, had less than 10 interceptions and all without a strong wide receiving corp. He finished ranked as the 9th highest scoring fantasy QB, yet can be had for a lower price this year. That defines value. His cast hasn't got any worse and with the introduction of Norv Turner, the offense should be more open than under Schottenheimer. Rivers has most of the requirements to be a top class QB and should get the opportunity this year to cement a fantasy reputation. He should be a solid fantasy starter and with Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson in his armory, get him this year before his value disappears.

Sigmund Bloom - It's easy to forget that Alex Smith came into the league as a 21 year old. After floundering in one of the worst rookie seasons on record, Smith showed modest improvement in 2006, albeit in a Norv Turner downfield passing offense that was not suited to his abilities. This year Smith has a new offensive coordinator, Jim Hostler, who should mix things up in a way that suits Smith's developing abilities as a passer. He also has a true #1 wide receiver for the first time in Darrell Jackson and the scariest tight end in the league after the catch in Vernon Davis. Smith's fantasy portfolio also includes the ability to run, with two rushing touchdown in 2006.

Aaron Rudnicki - Looks like the concerns over Vick's dog fighting situation have caused him to shift from being overvalued earlier this offseason to now being a great value play. He has finished as a top-12 QB in 4 of the past 5 seasons, with the only year he missed coming due to injuries. For all the concerns over his durability, Vick has managed to play in at least 15 games for 3 straight seasons. Coming off a season where he set a career-high with 20 passing TDs, the Falcons added a proven vet in Joe Horn and new head coach Bobby Petrino plans to get the RBs much more involved in the passing game. At his current ADP, the risk of a suspension is worth taking on for a chance at a top-5 QB.