Dynasty Shopping Mall Part Six (Rookie TEs)

  Posted 8/22 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Just like any other shopping mall, this will have different products at different levels of quality and price. We will shop around at different stores like Bloomingdales, Macy's, Sears, even the Dollar Store and look for products to buy. The focus will be on value. Many times the expensive products are worth the price. Some times they are not. We will examine opportunities to buy at a reasonable price compared to value. The products we are purchasing are fantasy players for our dynasty team. This is the sixth article in the series and will be on young tight ends. This study will examine when the best time is to purchase young tight ends for your fantasy team. Most fantasy owners draft rookie tight ends for their fantasy teams and give up way too early. In fact, the time to buy is really when the player enters year two. The tight end position is one of the most difficult to transition from the collegiate level to the NFL. The position requires skilled blocking, reading the defense including pass coverage, and running pass routes. Let's look at the top sixteen tight ends in 2006 and the improvements made between year one and year two. Since these are the top tight ends, there should be a trend in the numbers:

WOW! That is a huge improvement for the tight ends from the rookie season to year two. Only two tight ends had better rookie seasons than year two. One was Jeremy Shockey, who had a great rookie season. The other was Heath Miller, who performed about the same both years. Some of these tight ends were injured their rookie seasons, but were included because this study is focused on the top tight ends and looking for key predictors to identify future top tight ends.

There are several tight ends that were rookies in 2006 that are key candidates to improve in 2007:

Owen Daniels

Owen Daniels had a great rookie season, finishing as the fourteenth ranked tight end last year. The former Badger surprised many during the 2006 season. Most remember the week eight game where Daniels had nine receptions for ninety-nine yards and two touchdowns.

• Outlook: Many possible Top 10 finishes on the foreseeable horizon. The future does looks bright for Daniels and he is vastly underrated.
• Store: Macy's Red Tag Sale. The Texans' tight end is unheralded and under the radar for many fantasy owners. Even with the TE14 finish in 2006, Daniels is ranked as the eighteenth best tight end by the Footballguys dynasty staff. He represents value.
• Price: 2008 2nd round pick or package including a medium-value prospect.
• Recommendation: Buy, Buy, Buy.

Tony Scheffler

The Western Michigan alum awed many at the 2006 combine. He started slow with only two catches in the first six games. But, Scheffler ended the season on a roll, showing a great rapport with fellow rookie, Jay Cutler. Scheffler still finished as the twentieth ranked tight end in 2006.

• Outlook: Will be sharing time with veteran tight end, Daniel Graham. This is probably a very good thing as Graham's presence and publicity helps keep Tony's value low.
• Store: Sears. Scheffler will be a solid, dependable tight end for many years like a Kenmore dishwasher.
• Price: A 2008 2nd or 3rd round pick or low-level prospect. He is a perfect buy low and hold in leagues with deep benches. Scheffler's upside is higher than most realize.
• Recommendation: Buy if you can afford the roster spot for an entire season. Expect Scheffler to continue to improve in 2007 and breakout in 2008.

Vernon Davis

Not many players have near the buzz and supporters that Vernon Davis enjoys. He is the Rolls Royce of young tight ends. Davis is reportedly having a great camp so far and has looked "unstoppable". Vernon finished the 2006 season as the twenty-second ranked tight end. He will improve in his second year.

• Outlook: Many Top 10 finishes to come. But, it might be asking too much to equal his current dynasty ranking at Footballguys. He is ranked as the fifth best tight end. There is a huge value disparity between TE5 and TE10.
• Store: Bloomingdales. He is what is hip and fashionable in dynasty fantasy leagues.
• Price: 2008 1st round pick or midrange prospect.
• Recommendation: Too expensive compared to other tight ends with similar value. Davis is being drafted in the top fifty players in initial dynasty drafts. That is entirely too high. The Kool-Aid is so very sweet.

Marcedes Lewis

Lewis was a smooth tight end at UCLA and had the buzz coming into his rookie season. But, George Wrighster out-produced Lewis in 2006. Marcedes is a big, smooth receiver. He finished as the forty-forth ranked tight end as a rookie.

• Outlook: Will compete Wiggins and Wrighster for playing time in 2007 and should start. A Top 20 finish is expected and further improvement probable in 2008.
• Store: Dollar Store. Marcedes Lewis is on the waiver wire of many dynasty leagues and available very cheap in others.
• Price: 2008 3rd round pick or mid-level prospect.
• Recommendation: Buy, Buy, Buy. Lewis is as good of a dynasty tight end prospect as Greg Olsen this year but is much cheaper. In fact, both youngsters will share time with the veteran tight end.

David Thomas

The name "Dave Thomas" means Wendy's commercial to many. But, the former Longhorn is a good tight end. Daniel Graham is now in Denver, so Thomas is a viable option in deep dynasty leagues. Ben Watson has experienced injuries in the past and Thomas would be viable given a Watson injury. Kyle Brady is a blocking tight end and not a great threat to catch many passes. Thomas finished as the forty-sixth ranked tight end as a rookie.

• Outlook: Could be a solid Top 20 tight end for many years.
• Store: Dollar Store. He is available on the waiver wire in every league.
• Price: One blind bid waiver dollar or free in first come, first serve waivers.
• Recommendation: If you play in a deep dynasty league with thirty-five offensive players, or more, and want to take a chance at a potential starting tight end, stash Thomas on your roster. The Patriot starting tight end usually produces good fantasy numbers.

Each team in each league is different. These tight ends entering their second year bear monitoring. Marcedes Lewis and Tony Scheffler are buy opportunities in most every league. Also, keep an eye on rookie tight ends entering year two each season. There is value to be had.