Dynasty Shopping Mall Part Five (WRs over 30)

Posted 8/22 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Just like any other shopping mall, this will have different products at different levels of quality and price. We will shop around at department stores like Bloomingdales, Macy's, Sears, even the Dollar Store and look for products to buy. The focus will be on value. Many times the expensive products are worth the price. Some times they are not. We will examine opportunities to buy at a reasonable price compared to value. The products we are purchasing are fantasy players for our dynasty team. This is the fifth article in the series and will be examining wide receivers over the age of thirty. Many fantasy owners severely discount wide receivers when they hit the age of thirty even though the pass catchers can play well into their middle or late thirties. This is an ideal buying situation.

There are several high and low profile wideouts that are in their thirties. Last year, four of the six top receivers were over the age of thirty. In addition, twelve of the top thirty-six wideouts were over the magical age of thirty. Most fantasy owners can discern the top receivers like Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens, and Torry Holt … who are all above the age of thirty. Most need help taking advantage of other owners discounting receivers because of age who are still viable fantasy options. Below is a list of the ones to consider buying this offseason:

T.J. Houshmandzadeh

T.J. will be thirty years old next month. He was second fiddle to Chad Johnson at Oregon State, saw Johnson get drafted in the second round while Houshmandzadeh had to wait until the seventh round to be taken. Incidentally, T.J was also drafted by the Bengals and in the shadow of Chad Johnson once again. But, to fantasy owners, Houshmandzadeh is making a name for himself with a great 2006. The "championship" commercials did not hurt much either. The Footballguys staff that ranks dynasty players has a solid grasp of Houshmandzadeh's value. He is listed as the thirteenth ranked receiver. But, recent initial dynasty drafts have T.J. drafted around WR20. That is a huge disparity. The former Beaver finished the last two seasons as the eleventh and fourteenth ranked receiver. His value really shoots up in Point Per Reception leagues where the lanky wideout enjoyed a ninety catch, one thousand yard season in 2006. In addition, with the suspension of Chris Henry, both Bengal starting receivers should benefit.

Outlook: The former Beaver will likely always be playing in the shadow of Chad Johnson. Many would argue that T.J. has outplayed his higher profile teammate.
Store: Bloomingdales. He is a high quality receiver and well worth the price.
Price: 2008 1st rounder or high-level prospect.
Recommendation: Buy today if you can pay WR20 price, especially in PPR leagues, if you are one receiver away from contending for a title. Houshmandzadeh was the third ranked receiver on a points per game (PPG) basis during the 2006 season in PPR leagues. No way should he be discounted this far for a receiver who is not even thirty years old and has several good years left in his career.

Donald Driver

The thirty-two year old Driver has been very consistent. He is an ideal trade target for a team needing a very good WR2 for a playoff run. Driver has at least 82 catches and 1,200 yards the last three seasons. He is undoubtedly the primary target for Brett Favre. In the five years that Driver has been a starting receiver, he has finished as a top thirteen wideout, four times. Further, he finished in the top ten three times.

Outlook: The former seventh round pick from Alcorn State will likely be playing for the Packers the rest of his career. The main concern is that 2007 might be the last year for the only passer Driver has ever known, Brett Favre. Driver's predictability for 2007 is a huge consideration and a big reason for buying Driver this year while he is entering the twilight of his career.
Store: Macy's Red Tag sale. He is not cool and fashionable and seems like he is a season out of style. Donald Driver is not a sexy player at all. He is not big or overly athletic, but is a very good wide receiver.
Price: Less than a 2008 1st round pick and more than a 2008 2nd round pick or a very good prospect.
Recommendation: Buy if you feel you are a very solid WR2 away from the title. His price is discounted due to his age. He probably has two or three years left at a high level, which makes this price very reasonable.

Plaxico Burress

Plaxico turns thirty this month, but is still very underrated from a fantasy perspective. The Giants lost their best offensive weapon in Tiki Barber and have no viable WR2 to take away targets and touchdown opportunities. Burress has been a Giant for two years and as finished as a fantasy WR1 both years. This trend should continue. Even with the last two years, the Footballguys dynasty rankings have Plaxico ranked as the fifteenth best wideout. There is value to be had trading for Plaxico Burress.

Outlook: Several more years ranked in the top twelve or fifteen receivers. The Giants' offense will suffer through growing pains in 2007, adapting to life without Tiki, but Burress should still get his opportunities.
Store: Macy's. Plaxico is a very good fantasy receiver and is well worth the upscale price.
Price: A 2008 1st round pick plus a top prospect would probably be needed to acquire the veteran receiver.
Recommendation: Buy if you need a solid fantasy WR2 that produces WR1 numbers. Plaxico is unheralded in fantasy leagues.

Joey Galloway

The veteran receiver seems like he has been around forever. He has finished as the fifth and fifteenth best receiver the last two years and is a strong bet to repeat once again in 2007. It seems like an eternity ago that the Seattle Seahawks drafted Joey Galloway with the eighth overall pick. He has been productive throughout his career due to his speed and his ability to get open.

Outlook: Galloway gets a huge upgrade at quarterback from the noodle-armed Chris Simms and the rookie Bruce Gradkowski to a proven veteran, Jeff Garcia. He may only have a couple of years left at a high level but will be a top twenty pass catcher once again. Joey will be thirty-six years old in November but has shown no signs of slowing down.
Store: Sears. Galloway is nothing flashy. He is reliable like a Craftsman tool or Kenmore dishwasher and much cheaper than the more fashionable brands. Most fantasy owners want the shiny young receiver prospect.
Price: A 2008 2nd or 3rd round pick or good prospect. Galloway is an ideal WR3/4 for a fantasy team with title aspirations.
Recommendation: Buy today if you can acquire Galloway for a 2008 3rd round pick, or comparable. Many teams not in contention will want to cash in on the wily veteran. This is the time to acquire Galloway for peanuts and know that you can start him any game and he will produce.

Hines Ward

The thirty-one year old former college quarterback is a steady performer that plays hurt and is a gamer. Each year, fantasy owners think Ward's production will start to decline. He has been a top ten performer three of the last five years. The former third round pick has missed a total of three games in his career.

Outlook: The new Steeler offense promises to throw more than under old regime. The Steelers have a good young quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger and a young back in Willie Parker. The offense is very stable. The Steelers even drafted Santonio Holmes in the 2006 draft to help with the passing game. He is ranked as the nineteenth receiver by the Footballguys dynasty staff.
Store: Old Navy. Ward will not be cheap, but he is a good quality receiver. He is a good-looking fantasy WR in your lineup like a pair of cargo shorts on a summer day.
Price: 2008 1st round pick or good prospect.
Recommendation: Buy, but try for Plaxico Burress or Houshmandzadeh first.

Eddie Kennison

The thirty-four year old receiver from LSU has been productive since becoming a Kansas City Chief. He also has been very consistent. In the last five years, Kennison has finished between the eighteenth and thirty-seventh best wideout, many times out-producing his ADP.

Outlook: The Chiefs drafted Dwayne Bowe as the heir apparent to Kennison, but that should take a couple of years. In fact, Bowe's presence makes Kennison a better value. Given the steady production, the veteran is a very good fantasy WR4/5, especially in PPR leagues.
Store: Dollar Store. People are giving Kennison away like he is worthless.
Price: 2008 3rd rounder or low-level prospect.
Recommendation: Buy today if you have a team full of young receivers and need a veteran for depth until the youngsters develop and become viable. Eddie Kennison is ranked as the sixty-seventh best wideout by the Footballguys dynasty staff. This is a huge value play for a team needing cheap receiver depth.

There are other wide receivers to consider. There is a couple listed below to watch this season and pick up if the opportunity presents itself:

Joe Horn: The thirty-five year old goes to the Falcons in the offseason and becomes the unquestioned WR1 and only proven receiver for Bobby Petrino's team. Horn is the seventieth ranked pass catcher by the Footballguys dynasty staff and can easily outperform the ranking. Even in ten games in 2006, the veteran receiver finished as the forty-second best wideout. He can be had for a 2008 3rd round pick and is a great receiver for depth.
Muhsin Muhammad: Without looking it up, most will tell you that Bernard Berrian was the leading receiver for the Chicago Bears in 2006. In every scoring system, Muhammad outscored Berrian. The veteran was the thirtieth and thirty-seventh ranked receiver the last two years in Chicago. But, now he is ranked as the fifty-fifth best wideout for dynasty. Muhsin always has a few huge games each year and is a very good spot starter due to injury or bye week needs. The Bears rely on the former Spartan for the big catch in clutch situations. Once again, Rex Grossman will rely on Muhsin Muhammad to move the chains. He can be had for less than a 2008 2nd round pick.

Each team in each league is different. Not all teams are in a position where a veteran receiver is the ideal acquisition. But, if your team is on the cusp of winning it all, veteran receivers are the easiest (and cheapest) way to upgrade your starting lineup or improve depth. In PPR leagues, these veteran wide receivers are an ideal flex player and bench depth.