Dynasty Shopping Mall Part Two (Running Backs)

Posted 8/22 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Just like any other shopping mall, this will have different products at different levels of quality and price. We will shop around at department stores like Bloomingdales, Macy's, Sears, even the Dollar Store and look for products to buy. The focus will be on value. Many times the expensive products are worth the price. Some times they are not. We will examine opportunities to buy at a reasonable price compared to value. The products we are purchasing are fantasy players for our dynasty team. This is the second article in the series and will be examining the running back position. This initial article focused on quarterbacks who will be free agents next offseason. This is the time to buy. Let's remember Chester Taylor. Two years ago, you could have bought him very cheap or picked him up off of the waiver wire. Last year, he was a pretty good back with very high value considering the price paid originally for him a year earlier.

There are several high and low profile running backs slated for free agency in 2008. Below is a list of the ones to consider buying this offseason:

Julius Jones

The Cowboys plan on using Jones and Marion Barber the same way as in 2006. Marion Barber overshadowed Julius in 2006 and Julius has been very undervalued so far in 2007. Also, it has been heavily rumored that the Cowboys will make a play for Darren McFadden in the 2008 NFL Draft. So, Julius Jones will wear a different uniform in 2008. The versatile Jones is only twenty-six years old and could be a starting back for many NFL teams.

Outlook: Top 25 finish with an improved 2007 if he can stay healthy. The future does look bright in 2007 and beyond for the former Golden Domer.
Store: Macy's. Jones is not an elite ball carrier but like any starting back, he will still be plenty expensive.
Price: 2008 1st round pick or package including a top prospect.
Recommendation: Let someone else pay that price. But, try to buy if the price is a 2008 2nd round pick and a low-end prospect. He could produce better numbers in a new situation.

Michael Turner

No running back generated more buzz early in the 2007 offseason like Michael "the burner" Turner. There were rumors that he would be traded before the 2007 NFL Draft because of the pending free agency in 2008.

Outlook: Turner is only twenty-five years old. He will be a hot commodity in the NFL and fantasy leagues next offseason. The youngster from Northern Illinois has only 157 carries in his career, but has averaged a whopping six yards per carry.
Store: Bloomingdales. Many things in this world are expensive and not worth the price. But, Turner is worth the price. He will be worth, and cost, much more in 2008 than today.
Price: A 2008 1st round pick or very good prospect. Turner will not be easy to acquire from his owners because they will be thinking the same thing. But, Turner is a great buy for a team who will have a late 2008 1st round draft pick. He will be a starting NFL running back in 2008.
Recommendation: Buy today if you can pry Michael Turner from his current owner. Any Tomlinson injury, perish the thought, could mean instant top 10 status for Turner. He is THAT good.

Jamal Lewis

Jamal Lewis is still a relatively young running back He is only twenty-eight years old, but has 1,800 career regular-season carries. That is a ton for a six-year career. He now leaves a good running team, the Baltimore Ravens, for a poor running team, the Cleveland Browns. Lewis was successful in Baltimore, but should struggle in Cleveland.

Outlook: Disappointment in 2007 and beyond.
Store: Sears. Sears fits the workmanlike Lewis to a tee.
Price: 2008 2nd round pick or midrange prospect.
Recommendation: Let someone else pay the price, however low. Lewis will struggle and not be startable or reliable in Cleveland

Chris Brown

Brown signed a one-year contract with his former team, the Tennessee Titans, after getting very little attention from the other NFL teams. He has the opportunity with disappointing second-year back LenDale White and the raw rookie, Chris Henry, as the only competition. Brown has been injury-prone over his career, but can be productive. Brown is only twenty-six years old and had a monster year in 2004, before injury, with 1,200 total yards in eleven games.

Outlook: Brown will compete with LenDale White to the start for the Titans in 2007, but he is not in the long-term plans of the Titans. He signed the one-year contract in an attempt to prove himself and sign elsewhere in 2008.
Store: Ross Dress For Less. He is like the cool Dr. Marten shoes or Ralph Lauren shirt you get and take home and notice the cut tag. He will be a fantasy tease. If this was on LenDale White, I would suggest him equitable to the Food Court.
Price: 2008 2nd rounder or mid-level prospect.
Recommendation: He is worth the price if you have space on your roster and might need a RB3 for four or five games in 2007 for your fantasy team.

Mewelde Moore

Mewelde has also battled injuries throughout his career. With the Vikings signing Chester Taylor in 2006 and drafting Adrian Peterson this offseason, there is little room for Moore to showcase his talents outside of special teams.

Outlook: Moore is not in the Vikings future plans and should be in a different situation in 2008. He can be a viable, effective change-of-pace running back in the right offense as long as he can stay healthy. Mewelde is even more of a prospect in PPR (points per reception) leagues.
Store: Dollar Store. He is available on the waiver wire in many leagues. Too many owners have given up and forgotten about Mewelde Moore with Adrian Peterson coming to town.
Price: One blind bid waiver dollar or free in first come, first serve waivers.
Recommendation: If you play in a league with at least twenty-five roster spots, or more, and want to take a chance at a potential running back, stash Mewelde Moore on your roster. With the injury histories of Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson, Moore might get a chance sooner than later.

There are other running backs to consider. There are a few listed below to watch this season and pick up if the opportunity presents itself:

T.J. Duckett: Duckett goes back to the state where he made a huge name for himself as a Spartan. It is too early to tell how he will perform in the Mike Martz offense. But, Kevin Jones is still recovering from his Lis Franc injury and Tatum Bell is no beacon of health. T.J. could get an opportunity to be at least the goal line back early in the season, with a possibility for more as the year rolls along
Maurice Hicks: He is a career backup running back and change-of-pace back. Hicks could be a good PPR bench player if in a league with deep benches.

Each team in each league is different. Not every team is in a position to acquire a player this year in hopes of cashing in next year. The "must have" running back to buy now for the future is Michael Turner, assuming the price is fair and you find a willing seller. Julius Jones would fit that bill if the price were reasonable enough to take the chance. He will not get the opportunity in Dallas to produce top numbers, but maybe in a different situation. Chris Brown can also be a good buy low. Duckett and Moore are worth watching as the season progresses.