Overvalued Players - Week 13

  Posted 11/28 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

This article will take a weekly look at players who could negative provide value in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 250 forward, a look at the top 250 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players. With so many players off for the bye week, the overvalued players are influenced. If a player is slightly overvalued this week, it is safe to assume that the same player would have been even a worse play on weeks with no players on bye.

Quarterbacks

Carson Palmer

• Top 250: 4
• Weekly Ranking: 13
• Difference: - 9

Carson Palmer and Bengals face the stout Pittsburgh Steelers. Palmer is still a must start for fantasy owners, but expectations should be tempered. The Steelers boast a strong defense under new coach Mike Tomlin.

Philip Rivers

• Top 250: 14
• Weekly Ranking: 23
• Difference: - 9

Rivers has been inconsistent this season. This week, he faces the Kansas City Chiefs in week thirteen. The Chiefs get good pressure on opposing quarterbacks with Jared Allen and company. Kansas City also has a veteran pair of cornerbacks in Surtain and Law. This should be a game where Tomlinson dominates and Rives plays the complementary role.

David Garrard

• Top 250: 13
• Weekly Ranking: 20
• Difference: - 7

The Jaguars face the Colts in a tough division contest. The speed of the Colt defense will provide a test for the Jacksonville offense, including David Garrard. This will be a tough week to rely on Garrard as a fantasy starter. Bob Sander and company will make things difficult on the Jaguar passing game.

Kyle Boller

• Top 250: 25
• Weekly Ranking: 29
• Difference: - 4

Kyle Boller has not produced great fantasy numbers this season. This week, he faces the New England Patriots defense, coming off of a game against the Eagles where Jay Feeley moved the ball effectively. The Ravens do not have the weapons Philadelphia does and will have a tough time moving the ball.

Running Backs

Willis McGahee

• Top 250: 6
• Weekly Ranking: 21
• Difference: - 15

Willis McGahee has a difficult matchup against the Patriot run defense. The game should be one where the Ravens are playing catch up and will run the ball less. McGahee is still a decent fantasy RB2, but expectations should be lowered because of the matchup.

Willie Parker

• Top 250: 5
• Weekly Ranking: 18
• Difference: - 13

Willie Parker has accumulated the yards this season, but has had a difficult time finding the endzone. The Cincinnati Bengals are next up and will want to turn the game into a shoot-out. Parker is a top running back in the league and should be started every game, but this may be another game where it is difficult for Parker to hit paydirt.

Reggie Bush

• Top 250: 10
• Weekly Ranking: 16
• Difference: - 6

Reggie Bush is still dealing with the shin injury that has limited him the last few weeks. Last week, he played more as the third down back than the starting tailback. With the matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the expectations for the former Trojan should not be too high. The Tampa Bay defense is playing well.

Kevin Jones

• Top 250: 13
• Weekly Ranking: 28
• Difference: - 15

Kevin Jones had a big game on Thanksgiving Day after two poor showings. Next on the schedule is the Minnesota Vikings stiff run defense. The Vikings and their two defensive tackles, Kevin and Pat Williams, will look to shut down the former Hokie. The saving grace for Jones might be his receiving ability. But, this will be a tough matchup.

Adrian Peterson

• Top 250: 9
• Weekly Ranking: 15
• Difference: - 6

This will be the first game back for Adrian Peterson since spraining his knee. It has been reported that he will not get his full allotment of carries this week. With a less than stellar matchup against the Detroit Lions, fantasy owners are not advised to rely on Peterson as a fantasy RB1 this week.

Wide Receivers

Torry Holt

• Top 250: 4
• Weekly Ranking: 12
• Difference: - 8

Holt had gotten back in the groove after the return of Marc Bulger. With the veteran passer possibly out with a concussion, Torry Holt should not have the same potential. With the matchup against Hall and the Atlanta Falcons pass defense, with Gus Frerotte under center possibly, expectations for the former North Carolina State star should be tempered.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh

• Top 250: 6
• Weekly Ranking: 18
• Difference: - 12

Houshmandzadeh has been very good this season. But, this week is a tough matchup against the Pittsburgh Steeler defense. The Steelers are the top defense in the league against the pass and will look to hold the two former Oregon State receivers in check.

Chad Johnson

• Top 250: 5
• Weekly Ranking: 17
• Difference: - 12

Chad Johnson is coming off of a monster game last week. This week, the Bengals face the Steeler defense under the direction of new coach Mike Tomlin. Tomlin has the Steeler defense playing very well. Johnson is still starter in most every league, but just not the surefire fantasy WR1 most expect.

Santonio Holmes

• Top 250: 21
• Weekly Ranking: 29
• Difference: - 8

Holmes was playing great before injury. The Steeler offense relied on the former Buckeye to make plays down the field. Even with the great matchup against the Bengals, expectations should not be high until Santonio plays a game. Injured receivers usually need a game to get up to speed before fantasy owners insert them into lineups.

Marvin Harrison

• Top 250: 11
• Weekly Ranking: 20
• Difference: - 9

While out with the knee injury, Marvin Harrison was sorely missed by Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts. The game against the Jaguars in week thirteen is a tough division game where Harrison's presence is needed. But, he is not a great fantasy start with the strength of the Jaguar defense and fantasy owners not knowing how close to 100% is the veteran receiver.

Tight Ends

Dallas Clark

• Top 250: 9
• Weekly Ranking: 18
• Difference: - 9

Dallas Clark has missed Harrison as well. With a matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Clark is not a great start this week. This game is usually a hard-fought contest with the division on the line.

Jeremy Shockey

• Top 250: 4
• Weekly Ranking: 6
• Difference: - 2

Jeremy Shockey will find a tough matchup this week against the Chicago Bears. The Bear linebackers are fast and should be able to keep up with the former Hurricane. Shockey's potential will be limited if the Bears can get pressure on Eli manning like the Vikings did last week.

Kickers

Adam Vinatieri

• Top 250: 3
• Weekly Ranking: 6
• Difference: - 3

Adam Vinatieri has been struggling as of late and it is rumored that he is nicked up. His accuracy has not been what many expect from the former Patriot who is known for being a clutch kicker. In a tough game against the Jaguars, the Colts will need their veteran kicker to make kicks.

Josh Scobee

• Top 250: 7
• Weekly Ranking: 19
• Difference: - 12

Josh Scobee is now back healthy after a nasty leg injury. The Jaguar offense will find a difficult test with the Indianapolis Colts this week. Scobee is a very good fantasy kicker, just maybe not this week.

Team Defense

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Top 250: 2
• Weekly Ranking: 11
• Difference: - 9

The Cincinnati Bengal offense is one of the most prolific in the NFL. This will be a true battle of strengths as the Bengal pass offense faces the Steelers pass defense. Points will be scored by both teams. The Steeler defense should still be started, but the Bengals will score some points and usually do not turn the ball over a lot.