Dynasty Shopping Mall - Week 9

Posted 10/31 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Just like any other shopping mall, this will have different products at different levels of quality and price. We will shop around at different stores like Bloomingdales, Macy's, Sears, even the Dollar Store and look for products to buy. The focus will be on value. Many times the expensive products are worth the price. Some times they are not. We will examine opportunities to buy at a reasonable price compared to value. The products we are purchasing are fantasy players for our dynasty team.

In the middle of every fantasy season, there are players that are so well that they are far exceeding all expectations. This year is not different. This is the ideal time to sell these players at the highest price. It is assumed that these players cannot keep up the production level for either the playoff run or for next season. This may be due to situation and opportunity or because of strength of the schedule. Also, some aging players, who are playing very well this season, are included because they are great candidates to sell high for full value to teams making the playoff push. These situations in the NFL are dynamic and change at a quicker pace than most fantasy owners anticipate. Every team in every league is in a different situation. Some teams are competing and need to make a move for a title push while others are attempting to build for the future. Most teams with a great shot at going far in the playoffs will be hesitant to trade away the players who are playing very well. This is understandable and teams should take advantage of every chance to go for the league championship. That is why we play fantasy football. But, most teams are in a position where they have their fantasy backups playing well or are not in a great position to go deep into the playoffs. These will be the teams looking to get full value from their overperforming players. The target of trade talks should be with the teams who seem to be a player or two away from the title.

Derek Anderson

Make no mistake, Derek Anderson has been nothing short of awesome this season. He played well enough early on for the Browns to trade Frye to the Seahawks. The Oregon State product had 1,496 passing yards and 16 total touchdowns through the first six games of the season. He is hooking up with Braylon Edwards for a ton of scores this season.

Outlook: Despite how well Anderson is playing, it is assumed that he will yield to rookie Brady Quinn later this season, or in the offseason at the latest. The Browns traded away their 2008 1st round draft pick for Quinn and will want to see what they have in the rookie from Notre dame. But, the way Anderson is playing, that might be later rather than sooner.
Store: T.J. Maxx
Price: A 2008 2nd round draft pick
Recommendation: He is worth that price to a contending team. Anderson is a top fantasy passer this season. We all assume that Brady Quinn will take over later in the season if/when the Browns are eliminated from the playoff chase. But, Anderson will lead many fantasy teams to the playoffs if he keeps up this pace. He is an ideal player to sell high to a contending team.

Jon Kitna

The former Bengal and Seahawk has played well, running the Mike Martz offense. The quarterback in that offense takes a lot of hits each and every game. The Lions are looking like a playoff team for the first time in quite a while. Much of the credit has to go to the veteran passer and how he manages the game. The 35 year old only has eight touchdown passes in seven games. He has not thrown a scoring pass in the last three games.

Outlook: The Lions have given Kitna great weapons. They drafted Calvin Johnson in the first round of the 2007 NFL Draft and brought in Shaun McDonald via free agency. McDonald played under Martz in Saint Louis and knows the system well. The pair of newcomers joins the venerable Roy Williams and Mike Furrey. This is a great young receiver group. Kevin Jones is back healthy now and the offense looks to be the top offense in the NFC. With Jones coming back, the Lions have not utilized the four receiver set as often, and not passed as much. This means Kitna is attempting fewer passes, thus scoring fewer fantasy points for his owners.
Store: T.J. Maxx
Price: A package including a 2008 2nd round draft pick and a prospect
Recommendation: There is risk with Kitna getting hurt with the beating he takes in the Martz system. The Lions know this and that is why they drafted local product Drew Stanton in the 2007 NFL Draft. With Stanton on board, this could very well be the last season Kitna starts for the Lions. It is a distinct possibility. Many fantasy teams are hurting at quarterback with several top passers disappointing. Kitna may lead a contending team to the title. He is the epitome of a sell high, especially for a team with a very good QB1 or one that is out of the playoff picture.

Brett Favre

The ageless Packer has defined the franchise for almost two entire decades. The 38 year old is having a banner year leading Green Bay to the division lead. The Packer running game is not what it was with Ahman Green in the backfield. The Packers are using a committee made up of three rookies (DeShawn Wynn, who is now on IR, Brandon Jackson, and Ryan Grant) and veteran Vernand Morency. This uncertainty has lead to Favre once again leading the NFL in passing attempts. The trend should continue. Last season, the veteran passer attempted over 600 pass attempts. He finished as QB8 and should repeat his top 10 finish, possibly creeping into the top 5.

Outlook: The Packers drafted James Jones to help the depth of the receiver position. With Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and now Jones, the Packers have a very good receiving corps. In addition, they get Koren Robinson back from suspension. Gone are the days of Ruvell Martin and Robert Ferguson starting for the Green Packers, much to the delight of Brett Favre owners everywhere.
Store: Stein Mart
Price: A package including a 2008 2nd round draft pick and a prospect
Recommendation: Brett Favre almost did not come back this season. It seems like he contemplates retirement every offseason. Odds are that this is his last season playing in the NFL. Favre owners have the decision to ride out the season while he is playing great or sell to a contender that is only lacking at quarterback. There are so many of passers disappointing this season that there is a demand for the ageless country boy from Southern Mississippi.

Jesse Chatman

The 28 year-old from Eastern Washington played for coach Cameron in San Diego. The 5'8, 223-pound running back is stocky, but has lost weight since his days as a Charger. Chatman saw action early in the season but lost ground to Ronnie Brown. The former Auburn star is now gone for the year with a knee injury. The Dolphins are a team that is rebuilding and Chatman is not the long-term answer. He is a good flex player for this season. In his first action as the primary back, Chatman played well against the New York Giants. The game gave Chatman owners the indication that he will be the lead back going forward.

Outlook: The Dolphins drafted Lorenzo Booker to augment the running game, but he has not been active on game days for multiple reasons. Journeyman Patrick Cobbs will also get carries. Cobbs could surprise many. There is question of durability for Chatman. He has not carried the ball more than 65 times in a season. This situation could play out many different ways this season, but the reality is that Chatman is not the back of the future for the Miami Dolphins.
Store: The Gap
Price: A package including a 2008 2nd round draft pick and a prospect
Recommendation: Sell. Sell. Sell. Chatman is the posterboy for selling high. He has no long-term value and is thrust into the role of primary ball carrier on a team without weapons or an experienced quarterback. This is a situation that could get ugly fast. The five-year veteran has looked good in limited action, but that is a far cry from being the primary back for an extended period of time.

Rudi Johnson

The veteran running back from Auburn has been very consistent throughout his career. He produced three straight seasons of over 1,400 total yards and 12 touchdown scores. Rudi has been mister reliable for his fantasy owners. But, the 28 year old has suffered through a hamstring injury for the last few weeks. This has opened the door for Kenny Watson to play, and he has played well. The Bengals have missed the tough running of Rudi and look forward to having him back as they try to salvage what has been a very disappointing season. The Bengals are a team full of turmoil and could implode any day.

Outlook: The Bengals drafted Kenny Irons in the 2007 NFL Draft to complement and possibly replace Rudi Johnson in the near future. Irons was injured in preseason so no one knows how it would have played out this season. But, one thing we do know is that Rudi has had a ton of carries in the last four years and the Bengals are preparing for life after he is gone. The six-year veteran had over 337 carries in each of the last three years. With the high number of carries, Rudi Johnson is an injury risk. The drafting of Irons was the second time the Bengals have attempted to supplant or diminish Rudi's role in the offense.
Store: Macy's
Price: A package including a 2008 1st round draft pick and a prospect
Recommendation: Rudi Johnson has produced good fantasy numbers for a few years. Many fantasy owners see the veteran back as a good RB2 or low-end RB1. With Rudi coming back this week, this is the perfect time to sell high to a team needing ball carriers. Rudi is a great sell high because he is still a high risk for injury and the large amount of carries have taken its toll. The Bengals are a team that will probably have a new coach in 2008 and might have several changes to its prolific offense. There is more risk to Rudi than most realize. He has benefited from playing every game and his consistency, along with several short yardage scoring chances provided by the passing game.

Patrick Crayton

The four-year veteran from Northwestern Oklahoma has been producing good fantasy points this season. He did hurt his finger earlier in the year, but has played well since. Crayton benefits from lining up opposite of Terrell Owens. Teams focus on containing Owens, leaving Crayton and Witten open. One issue for Crayton is that he is a possession receiver that has troubles with dropping passes. That sounds like an oxymoron. Crayton should continue to put up good fantasy points for the remainder of the season.

Outlook: The Cowboys only addressed the receiver position in the 2007 offseason by drafting a college quarterback. With the knee injury to Terry Glenn, this as left Dallas thin at the position. With the age of both Owens and Glenn, it would seem that the Cowboys would rely on Crayton for the future. But, the former college quarterback is a free agent this offseason. The Cowboys have made no attempt to sign Patrick Crayton, leaving most with the idea that there is a good chance he plays elsewhere in 2008. This would not be good for Crayton's value. He is getting great opportunities with Tony Romo under center and lining up across from Terrell Owens. Crayton looks like a player who will probably struggle on another team. Further, the Cowboys will address the receiver position next offseason.
Store: Sears
Price: A package including a 2008 2nd round draft pick and a prospect
Recommendation: With the way Crayton is playing, his owners will able to get full value for him. He is a player to sell while he is playing so well. There is only a slight chance Terry Glenn will come back this season after his surgery. He is still a long ways off in his rehab. Since the Cowboys will look to shore up the receiver position next season, Crayton will have competition, even if he re-signs with in Dallas.

Brandon Stokley

The 31 year-old from Louisiana-Lafayette signed with the Broncos after making a name for himself as the slot receiver for the Indianapolis Colts. In 2004, Stokley enjoyed a breakout season, producing over 1,000 receiving yards and 10 touchdown grabs. He was Peyton Manning's security blanket, working the middle of the field and making the clutch reception. He came to the Broncos as the slot receiver, but is getting more action because of the knee injury to Javon Walker. Jay Cutler is targeting the 31 year old when he needs the clutch catch.

Outlook: Javon Walker will miss most of the rest of the season. Brandon Marshall was cited for DUI on October 22 and might be punished later this season. Travis Henry is appealing his suspension for failing a drug test. The Broncos are looking like a team void of offensive weapons. This might be the perfect opportunity for the veteran receiver. Even though he is more of a possession receiver, Stokley will produce good numbers as long as he can stay healthy. There has been only a few years that Stokley has played even half of the games in a given season.
Store: J.C. Penney
Price: A 2008 2nd round draft pick or a prospect
Recommendation: Brandon Stokley should produce at least fantasy WR3 numbers for the last half of the season, as long as he can remain healthy. This will be the ideal time for his fantasy owners to sell him at a premium to a team making a playoff run. Stokley is a slot receiver pushed into action out wide due to the circumstances of Walker, and possibly Marshall.

Joey Galloway

The veteran receiver from Ohio State will be 36 years old this November. He has produced at a high level for a long time. Galloway's speed is still top notch and he has no problem getting separation. The former Seahawk and Cowboy is having a good year with the addition of Jeff Garcia for the Buccaneers. Garcia is a huge upgrade over the potpourri of less than average passers the Tampa Bay receivers endured in 2006. Joey Galloway will be a top 30 receiver in 2007, maybe even top 20. He has always had the talent.

Outlook: The Buccaneers will look to find youth at the receiver position with Galloway and Ike Hilliard as the only pass catchers playing well. Michael Clayton and Maurice Stovall have not played well the last two seasons. With Garcia's age, and the age of Hilliard and Galloway, the Buccaneers look to be a team that will go through transition soon at the skill positions. This is even furthered by the injury to Cadillac Williams. The Buccaneers are thin at every skill position and will need to add youth at those positions.
Store: T.J. Maxx
Price: A package including a 2008 2nd round draft pick and a prospect
Recommendation: Like most products at T.J. Maxx, which are of good quality but with a flaw, Galloway is a good receiver but with not much time left in his career. There will be teams looking for receiver help that will gladly pay the price for the speedy Galloway. He is a very startable fantasy WR2 in almost any league. Galloway offers similar production to many receivers with "bigger" names, but at a cheaper price. The one thing we do not know is how few years the veteran receiver has left in his career.

Ronnie Brown would have been on this list had he not been injured in week seven. He was playing at such a high level fantasy owners had not seen. In addition, he was getting a lot touches. Owners who sold Brown the week before received value equal to almost any running back outside of LaDainian Tomlinson. Identifying the right time to sell is one of the most difficult things in fantasy football. Fantasy owners are left to decide whether to ride out the hot streak or sell high for a player that should produce more in the future. In this stage of the fantasy season, with just a few games left, there are always teams on the cusp of the playoffs or teams decimated by injury that need help. Every fantasy owner needs to look at his or her team and objectively consider what the team needs. The ability to sell high is based on the value of the player being worth more today than in the future. Each of the players above are ideal candidates to sell at a high value in an attempt to improve in the future. One added benefit to selling a veteran player for a rookie draft pick is the roster spot opened up. This will allow the fantasy owner to replace the veteran with a prospect off of the waiver wire that could be valuable in the future.